2025 年 05 月 19 日 北交所行业研究 天工股份正式上市 ——北交所行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | 8.90% | 15.56% | 79.80% | | 沪深 | 300 | 3.40% | -1.27% | 7.25% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 实现领涨、交投 活跃度明显提升，下周天工股份上市（推荐）*中 小盘*罗琨》——2025-05-12 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 小幅回调，下周 天工 股份申购 （推荐）* 中小 盘* 罗琨 》—— 2025-04-28 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周北证 50 继续领涨，交投活跃度持续上升， 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 涨幅延续、交易 放缓，交大铁发提交注册（推荐）*中小 ...

2025 年 05 月 19 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： | | chenmz@g | | --- | --- | | 券分析师: 券分析师: | 陈梦竹 ટા 尹芮 S03 | 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 尹芮 S0350522110001 yinr@ghzq.com.cn ——网易-S（9999.HK）2025Q1 财报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 2025 年 5 月 15 日公司公告 2025Q1 财报，2025Q1 实现营收 288.29 亿 元（YoY+7.4%、QoQ+7.8%）；归母净利润为 103.01 亿元（YoY+34.9%、 QoQ+17.5%），non-GAAP 归母净利润为 112.37 亿元（YoY+32%、 QoQ+16.1%）。 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 [Table_Title] 游戏稳健，降本增效带动利润显著增长 1、主要财务指标分析：网易 2025Q1 实现营业收入 288.29 亿元 （ YoY+7.4% 、 QoQ+7.8% ） ； 归 母 净 利 润 为 ...

相关报告 《2025 年 5 月大类资产配置报告：宏观不确定性 上升，依旧看好 A 股红利类资产*林加力》—— 2025-05-05 《2025 年 4 月大类资产配置月度报告：消费驱动 下的新范式*林加力》——2025-04-02 2025 年 05 月 19 日 资产配置报告 | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 林加力 S0350524100005 | | | | linjl01@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 袁雨琦 S0350125020008 | | | | yuanyq@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 基准偏离度考量下，公募基金如何配置行业 ——资产配置专题报告 最近一年走势 《资产配置报告：《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》 点评——攻守之势迎转折，建议红利底仓叠加出口 链弹性*林加力》——2025-05-15 迎来多重利好*林加力》——2025-05-08 《4 月资金流向月报：价值型资金或仍为主要定价 投资要点: 中国证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，正式拉开公募 基金行业系统性改革的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][46] Core Insights - Tencent's Q1 2025 financial results show strong revenue growth driven by gaming and advertising, with significant operational leverage from AI integration [3][11][46] - The company achieved a revenue of 180 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 13% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4% [12][17] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 61.3 billion RMB, up 22% year-over-year, indicating robust profitability [12][17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 180 billion RMB, with operating profit at 57.6 billion RMB and net profit at 47.8 billion RMB [12][17] - The overall gross margin improved to 55.8%, up 3.24 percentage points year-over-year [17][22] - Non-IFRS operating profit grew by 18% year-over-year, reflecting effective cost management and revenue growth [12][17] Operational Data - WeChat's monthly active users (MAU) reached 1.402 billion, growing 3% year-over-year [8][13] - The number of registered accounts for value-added services increased to 268 million, a 3% year-over-year growth [8][13] Business Segments - Gaming revenue accelerated by 24% year-over-year, with domestic and international markets growing by 24% and 22% respectively [29][30] - Marketing services revenue grew by 20% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for advertising within the WeChat ecosystem [38][40] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue increased by 5% year-over-year, with a notable recovery in cloud services [41][42] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 725.6 billion RMB, 791.3 billion RMB, and 863.1 billion RMB respectively [46] - Non-IFRS net profit projections for the same period are 254.7 billion RMB, 286.5 billion RMB, and 321.8 billion RMB [46] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure in Q1 2025 reached 27.5 billion RMB, a 91% increase year-over-year, reflecting investments in AI and core business operations [43][45]

| | 2025 | 年 月 05 | 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | | 18 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究所： | | | [Table_Title] | | | | | 证券分析师： | | 李永磊 | 丁二烯、涤纶长丝价格上涨， | S0350521080004 | | | | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | | | | | 证券分析师： | | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | 磷矿石价值有望重估 | | | | | 联系人 ： | | 于畅 S0350124080008 yuc02@ghzq.com.cn | ——基础化工行业周报 | | | | 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 | 6.7% | 2.6% | -0.0% | | 沪深 300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 相关报告 《 ...

评级：推荐(维持) 证券研究报告 2025年05月18日 有色金属 铝行业周报：中美双边关税大幅下降，库存维持强势表现 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓和，政策定调积极（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-04-28 《铝行业周报：去库表现强势，关注需求及出口走向（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-04-21 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓解，铝价压制减弱，关注需求变化（推荐）*有色 金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-04-14 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.7% | 1.3% | -0.0% | | 沪深300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -24% -16% -8% 1% 9% 17% 2024/05 2024/08 2024/11 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张益 S0350124100016 zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 港口去库、电厂补库需求渐显，煤价预期开始好 转 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | -1.0% | -3.4% | -18.4% | | 沪深 300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：4 月进口煤量继续减量，煤 价继 续探底（ 推荐）*煤炭 开采* 陈晨 》—— 2025-05-11 《煤炭开采行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述： 煤企成本下降难补煤价跌，煤企业绩进一步向合理 区间回归（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-05-09 《煤炭开采行业周报：港口库存延续去化，煤价筑 底下关注高股息价值（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》— —2025-0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy, which is anticipated to support consumer demand and boost sales in 2025 [16] - The report highlights a significant increase in the first-quarter performance of Geely, with revenue reaching 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.6%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 263% [27] - The report emphasizes the strategic integration of Geely and Zeekr Technology Group under the "One Geely" strategy to enhance resource allocation and improve competitiveness in the market [12][27] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From May 12 to May 16, the automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index rising by 2.4% compared to the index's 0.8% increase [17] - The performance of individual segments during this period showed passenger vehicles up by 4.4%, while commercial vehicles declined by 1.7% [17] Key Company Developments - Geely launched its 2026 C10 model, priced between 122,800 to 142,800 yuan, featuring a maximum range of 605 km for the pure electric version [13] - Great Wall Motors introduced the new high-end MPV, the Wei brand Gao Shan, starting at 309,800 yuan, equipped with advanced driving assistance systems [14] - NIO's new ES6 and EC6 SUVs were launched with starting prices of 338,000 yuan and 358,000 yuan, respectively, showcasing significant performance metrics [15] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in heavy truck demand in 2025 after three years of low performance, recommending leading companies in the commercial vehicle sector [16] - The report suggests that companies with high-quality supply in the automotive sector are likely to benefit significantly, recommending stocks such as Li Auto, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [16][6] Stock Recommendations - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts and investment ratings, including: - Li Auto (buy) with an expected EPS of 5.03 in 2025 - BYD (buy) with an expected EPS of 18.15 in 2025 - Great Wall Motors (increase) with an expected EPS of 1.63 in 2025 [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The core business shows steady growth, with a strong ongoing demand for AI [1] - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY2025Q4, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7% [9] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 41.8 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year [9] - The net profit surged to 12 billion yuan, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 1203% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025Q4, Alibaba achieved: - Revenue: 236.5 billion yuan (YoY +7%, QoQ -16%) [9] - Operating profit: 28.5 billion yuan (YoY +93%, QoQ -31%) [9] - Adjusted EBITDA: 41.8 billion yuan (YoY +36%, QoQ -33%) [9] - Net profit: 12 billion yuan (YoY +1203%, QoQ -74%) [9] - Non-GAAP net profit: 29.8 billion yuan (YoY +22%, QoQ -42%) [9] Business Segment Performance - Taobao Group: - Revenue reached 101.4 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 9% [11] - Customer Management Revenue (CMR) increased by 12% [11] - Adjusted EBITA was 41.7 billion yuan, with an EBITA margin of 41% [11] - International Digital Commerce Group: - Revenue grew by 22% to 33.6 billion yuan, driven by strong cross-border business performance [13] - Cloud Intelligence Group: - Revenue increased by 18% to 30.1 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [39] Future Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are as follows: - FY2026: 1,087.3 billion yuan - FY2027: 1,193.2 billion yuan - FY2028: 1,312.5 billion yuan [44] - Projected net profits for the same period are: - FY2026: 144.5 billion yuan - FY2027: 169.3 billion yuan - FY2028: 192.8 billion yuan [44] Valuation and Target Price - The report estimates a target market value of 2,958.2 billion yuan for FY2026, corresponding to a target price of 155 yuan per share [44]

2025 年 05 月 18 日 固定收益点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 范圣哲 S0350522080001 fansz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 转债评级下调怎么看？ 固定收益点评 毅，范圣哲》——2024-10-27 《债券研究月报：高 YTM 转债配置正当时*靳毅， 范圣哲》——2024-08-25 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 证券研究报告 今年以来，多家转债主体发生评级调整，如东时转债、富淼转债等转债主体因业 绩下滑及偿债能力不足被下调评级。当前转债临近窗口期受信用风险担忧影响， 估值压力显著提升。基于此，我们将对下调评级的转债进行相关分析，以更好应 对信用风险的冲击。 1、评级调整回顾 1.1、历史评级调整及市场表现 转债市场发生主体评级具有明显季节性，评级调整集中发布于 6 月。2021-2024 年，发生主体下调评级共 193 次，占全部评级调整报告的 4.51%。从时间分布 上来看，评级下调事件高度集中在年中，其中超过 61%的下调评级集中在 6 月 ...