2025 年 12 月 31 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 223 期 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、债市大幅调整，原因几何？--固定收益点评 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 债市大幅调整，原因几何？--固定收益点评 深度布局 MLED 领域，全球化稳步推进--诺瓦星云/计算机设备(301589/217101) 公司点评 证券研究报告 分析师：颜子琦 S0350525090002 分析师：洪子彦 S0350525100001 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、近期债市下跌原因分析；2、后续市场行情展望。 事件: 12 月 29 日，早盘国债期货跌破多个点位后现券跟随下跌，30 年国债到期收益率全天大幅上行。 点评: 从消息面上看是对周末政策组合的定价。一方面，12 月 26 日央行发布《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》，提及 "贷款利率降幅明显超过政策利率，而存款利率降幅明显低于政策利率"等内容，引发债市对明年降息概率下 降的猜想；另一方面，12 月 28 日全国财政工作会议开启，表示" ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 固定收益点评 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 [Table_Title] 债市大幅调整，原因几何？ 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 《债券研究周报：险资抢配 30 年国债*颜子琦，洪 子彦》——2025-12-28 《债券研究周报：年末债市还有哪些好策略？*颜 子琦，洪子彦》——2025-12-22 《债券研究周报：10 年国债成交量为何下滑了？* 颜子琦，洪子彦》——2025-12-15 子彦》——2025-12-08 《破局而立，波段致胜——2026 年利率债投资策 略*颜子琦，刘畅，洪子彦》——2025-12-03 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、近期债市下跌原因分析；2、后续市 场行情展望。 事件: 《债券研究周报：超长债企稳了吗？*颜子琦，洪 从消息面上看是对周末政策组合的定价。一方面，12 月 26 日央行 发布《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》，提及"贷款利率降幅明显超 过政策利率，而存款利率降幅明显低于政策利率"等内容，引发债 市对明年降息概率下降的猜想；另一方面，12 月 28 日全国财政工 作会议开启，表示"明年财政将大力提振消费， ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 222 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 今年春季行情还有哪些问题值得关注？--策略周报 H200"有条件"对华开放，长期依然看好国产算力 --事件点评 PX、PTA 价格上涨，关注反内卷和铬盐--行业周报 中证 A500 持续净流入，解禁规模抬升--策略周报 证券行业 2026 年投资策略——寻找消失的 beta--行业 PPT 报告 Gemini 3.0/Nano 密集发布，从谷歌 AI 体系看应用叙事 ——计算机行业大模型及 AI 应用专题 (2)--行业 PPT 报告 上周债市继续回暖，市场机构怎么看？--债券研究周报 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、今年春季行情还有哪些问题值得关注？--策略周报 分析师：赵阳 S0350525100003 联系人：常毅翔 S0350124060023 6、当前 A 股已出现企稳回升态势，我们认为跨年行情或徐徐展开。往后看依然存在一些潜在催化，比如 1 月 初关注是否会 ...

证券研究报告 2025年12月29日 非银金融 证券行业2026年投资策略——寻找消失的beta 评级：推荐(上调) 董栋梁(证券分析师) S0350525030005 dongdl@ghzq.com.cn 《非银金融行业专题研究：中国券商出海征途：历史演进与全球机遇（无评级） *非银金融*董栋梁》——2025-12-17 《非银行业深度报告：稳定币赛道研究*非银金融*董栋梁》——2025-05-24 《洞察她财富蓝海：女性财富管理机遇与金融机构行动指南————非银行业 专题报告（无评级）*证券Ⅱ*董栋梁，林加力》——2025-04-03 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 7.5% | 2.9% | 8.1% | | 沪深300 | 2.5% | 0.4% | 16.5% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 核心提要 最近一年走势 相关报告 -18% -11% -3% 5% 13% 21% 2024/12/24 2025/02/24 2025/04/24 2025/06/24 2025/08/2 ...

Group 1 - The overall macro liquidity environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of 34.8 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos and a net injection of 100 billion yuan via medium-term lending facilities, resulting in a total net injection of 65.2 billion yuan for the week [4][10][11] - The stock market's funding supply is generally recovering, with a significant increase in equity fund issuance and a slight recovery in financing balances, indicating an uptick in leveraged capital participation [5][12] - The stock ETF saw a net inflow of 35.441 billion yuan, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs like the CSI A500 and CSI 500, while the CSI 300 experienced net outflows [14][18] Group 2 - The stock market's funding demand has shown significant pressure from capital outflows, with equity financing rising to 20.752 billion yuan, driven by a substantial increase in private placements [20][21] - The scale of locked-up shares being released has surged to 192.836 billion yuan, indicating increased market pressure, particularly in sectors like power equipment and non-bank financials [21][26] - The net reduction in holdings by major shareholders has increased to 14.661 billion yuan, with notable reductions in the electronics and power equipment sectors [21][27]

——春季躁动系列 2 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 12 月第 4 期：中证 A500ETF 资金 大幅净流入*赵阳》——2025-12-23 《全球流动性"祛魅"，中国资产"重估"*赵阳， 袁野》——2025-12-20 《流动性周报 12 月第 3 期：社融同比增速持平， 2025 年 12 月 29 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 常毅翔 S0350124060023 changyx@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 今年春季行情还有哪些问题值得关注？ 《向阳花开，乘势而上——2026 年 A 股年度策略* 赵阳》——2025-12-14 《流动性周报 12 月第 2 期：资金供给端改善，解 禁减持规模高增*赵阳》——2025-12-09 本篇报告主要讨论：1、今年（2025 年，下文皆同）岁末年初是否会出 现历史上 1 月前后失速下跌的情形？2、牛市年份春季躁动启动是否要等 到 1 月有条件的年报强制披露落地之后？3、春季躁动期间行业表现和春 季躁动之前的涨跌幅是否有关？4、当下还有 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] H200"有条件"对华开放，长期依然看好国产 算力 ——计算机事件点评 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/12/26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 计算机 | -1.4% | -6.5% | 11.6% | | 沪深 300 | 3.1% | 2.4% | 16.8% | 相关报告 《计算机行业专题报告：GPU+ASIC 渗透加速，液 冷市场规模再添增量（推荐）*计算机*刘熹》—— 2025-12-25 《计算机行业专题报告：互联总线——Scale-Up 能力跃升的关键通路（推荐）*计算机*刘熹》—— 2025-12-25 《计算机专题报告：超节点渐成共识，产业链成长 动能明确 ——AI 算力与模型应用月 报（202510）（推荐）*计算机*刘熹》——2025-11-17 《计算机事件点评：百度昆仑芯新品发布，助力中 国 AI ...

证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 221 期 2025 年 12 月 29 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 事件: 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 国产 AI 万卡超集群首次亮相，计算+网络+存储实现创新突破--中科曙光/计算机设备(603019/217101) 公司动 态研究 不必悲观，结构存机会--行业深度研究 看好锂电材料价格修复，钠电产业发展有望加速--行业周报 云深处科技启动上市辅导，浙江荣泰联合伟创电气于泰国设立合资子公司--行业周报 吉利汽车与极氪整合完成，多地部署 2026"新国补"--行业周报 险资抢配 30 年国债--债券研究周报 本周生产收紧，电厂日耗环比提升，港口煤价降幅收窄--行业周报 铝行业周报：铝锭淡季累库，鼓励氧化铝企业兼并重组--行业 PPT 报告 我国 5G 用户普及率已达 83.9%，NAND 价格突破历史新高--行业周报 12 月 22 日，中科曙光官微发布 scaleX 万卡超集群宣传，scaleX 万卡超集群是一套万卡超集群系统，由多个 scaleX640 超节点通过 s ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate towards long-term growth. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials supports one generation of industry," highlighting the foundational role of the new materials industry in supporting other sectors [4][14]. - The report identifies key areas for investment, including electronic information, aerospace, new energy, biotechnology, and energy conservation and environmental protection, focusing on companies with strong upstream supply chains, research capabilities, and excellent management [4]. Summary by Sections Electronic Information Sector - Focus on semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [5]. - As of December 25, 2025, the 5G user penetration rate in China has increased from 15% to 83.9%, indicating significant advancements in information infrastructure [6][23]. Aerospace Sector - Key materials include PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [7]. New Energy Sector - Focus on photovoltaic materials, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [9]. - The National Development and Reform Commission aims for a total installed capacity of 15 million kilowatts for solar thermal power by 2030, with costs comparable to coal power [10]. Biotechnology Sector - Focus on synthetic biology and scientific services [11]. - Shanghai's action plan aims for breakthroughs in synthetic biological food creation by 2027, enhancing food manufacturing levels and establishing a robust innovation ecosystem by 2030 [12]. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Focus on adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a directory of major environmental protection technologies and equipment, showcasing typical cases across eight major environmental fields [14]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report lists several key companies with their stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026, along with their investment ratings, indicating a positive outlook for many companies in the new materials sector [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation due to weak demand, while macroeconomic conditions remain supportive for aluminum prices [10]. - The report emphasizes the need for mergers and acquisitions among alumina companies to enhance competitiveness amid high inventory levels [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 26, the average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 22,060.0 CNY/ton, up 220.0 CNY/ton week-on-week, and up 2,210.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [20]. - The LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,956.5 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 220.0 CNY/ton [14]. 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 66,000 tons year-on-year [49]. - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [49]. 3. Inventory - As of December 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was recorded at 617,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The report notes that the inventory of bauxite at alumina plants increased to 55.411 million tons, indicating a high inventory level despite tight domestic supply [8]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.25 CNY for 2024, 2.54 CNY for 2025, and 2.77 CNY for 2026 [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.96 CNY for 2024, 1.00 CNY for 2025, and 1.27 CNY for 2026 [5]. - Other companies such as Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ), China Aluminum (601600.SH), and Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) are similarly rated "Buy" with positive earnings forecasts [5].