| 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 赵阳 S0350525100003 | | | | zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭可凡 S0350124070038 | | | | guokf@ghzq.com.cn | 2025 年 11 月 24 日 策略周报 [Table_Title] 基金发行端回暖，杠杆资金有所放缓 ——流动性周报 11 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 《存款搬家如何演绎——牛市资金面专题研究 (一)*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》——2025-08-10 ETF 系列报告（一）*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-30 《业绩基准如何选择*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-29 《如何看待近期涨价领域拥挤度偏高的情况*赵 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1. 宏观流动性保持宽松，央行通过公开市场操作开展 7 天逆回购 净投放 5540 亿元，连续两周实现净投放。同时， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Views - The automotive industry is experiencing a decline in performance due to high base effects, with expectations of a decrease in passenger vehicle year-on-year growth by the end of 2025. However, the high-end passenger vehicle market is expected to perform relatively better in 2026 due to policy adjustments [17] - The report highlights the rapid iteration capabilities of new models such as the Xiangjie S9 and Xiaopeng X9, indicating a trend towards advanced driving technologies becoming more accessible [14][15] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the commercial vehicle sector, particularly heavy trucks, with a recovery in domestic demand anticipated in 2025 [17] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.9% from November 17 to November 21, 2025 [5][18] - The Guangzhou Auto Show showcased 93 new car launches, with 58% being new energy vehicles, indicating a strong market presence for innovative technologies [13] Key Developments - The launch of the Xiangjie S9 and Xiaopeng X9 models reflects the industry's focus on high-end features and rapid product updates, with prices ranging from 309,800 to 369,800 yuan for the S9 [14] - Huawei's conference highlighted advancements in L3 autonomous driving technology, predicting a penetration rate of 30% by 2025 and over 50% by 2027 [15][16] Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, companies with quality offerings above 300,000 yuan are expected to benefit, with recommendations including Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Xiaopeng, Great Wall, SAIC, Li Auto, Seres, and BYD [17] - In the parts sector, companies benefiting from the penetration of high-level intelligence into lower-priced models are recommended, including Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot [17] - In the commercial vehicle segment, companies like Weichai Power, Foton, and China National Heavy Duty Truck are recommended due to expected recovery in heavy truck demand [17]

Group 1 - The smart electric vehicle business of Xiaomi Group achieved its first quarterly profit, with a record high profit in Q3 2025, reporting revenue of approximately 113.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [4][5] - The automotive segment saw a significant increase in revenue, reaching 283 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 197.9%, driven by an increase in delivery volume and average selling price (ASP) [7] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment maintained year-on-year growth, achieving revenue of 276 billion RMB in Q3 2025, despite subsidy reductions [6] Group 2 - Top Group reported a revenue of 209.28 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, with a notable growth in the automotive electronics business [10] - The company’s Q3 2025 revenue reached 79.94 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.53%, primarily due to increased sales from key customers [10][11] Group 3 - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately 311.74 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7%, influenced by decreases in online marketing and iQIYI revenues [13][15] - The AI-driven marketing services within Baidu's core business saw a significant increase, with revenue reaching 28 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 262% [15] Group 4 - XPeng Motors reported a revenue of 203.8 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with automotive revenue contributing 180.5 billion RMB [19][20] - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to reach between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [21] Group 5 - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of approximately 204.52 billion USD for FY2026Q2, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with AI-related business revenue accounting for 30% of total revenue [24][25] - The infrastructure solutions group within Lenovo saw a revenue increase of 24%, driven by new customer acquisitions and business transformations [26] Group 6 - The AIDC storage report indicates a high demand in the industry, with significant growth expected in the data center storage market, projected to reach 212 GWh globally by 2030 [28][29] - The report highlights that data center storage has shifted from being an optional configuration to a necessity, driven by increasing power density and load demands [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector is positioned as a crucial direction for the future development of the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid demand growth in downstream applications. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate into a long-term growth phase. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials leads to one generation of industries," highlighting the foundational role of new materials in supporting other industries [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [5]. - The overall sales of the chip design industry in China is projected to reach 835.73 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 29.4% compared to 2024 [6][23]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Key materials of interest are PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [8]. 3. New Energy Sector - The report highlights solar photovoltaic materials, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials as focal points [10]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - The focus is on synthetic biology and scientific services [11]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Key materials include adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [13]. 6. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023, 2024E, and 2025E, along with their price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and investment ratings [16]. - Notable companies include: - Ruihua Tai (688323.SH) with a 2025E EPS of 0.26 and a "Hold" rating - Guangwei Composite (300699.SZ) with a 2025E EPS of 0.97 and a "Buy" rating - Zhongfu Shenying (688295.SH) with a 2025E EPS of 0.23 and a "Buy" rating - Wanrun Co., Ltd. (002643.SZ) with a 2025E EPS of 0.53 and a "Buy" rating - Dinglong Co., Ltd. (300054.SZ) with a 2025E EPS of 0.96 and a "Buy" rating [16].

证券研究报告 2025年11月23日 机械设备 机械行业专题报告： 摩托车行业2025年10月海关数据更新 -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 43% 2024/10/24 2025/04/24 2025/10/24 机械设备 沪深300 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年1-10月数据更新（推荐）*机械设备* 张钰莹》——2025-11-16 《人形机器人专题5：Sim to Real，具身大模型的问题、现状与投资机会（推 荐）*机械设备*张钰莹》——2025-11-10 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年9月海关数据更新（推荐）*机械设备 *张钰莹》——2025-10-26 评级：推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | -6.0% | -1.6% | 22.7% | | 沪深300 | -3.3% | 3.9% | 11.6% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum price has recently retreated from high levels due to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable drop in aluminum prices observed [6][9] - The demand for aluminum is entering a traditional off-season, leading to concerns about inventory levels and price stability [9] - Long-term prospects for the aluminum industry remain positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, justifying the "Recommended" rating [9] Summary by Sections Price - As of November 21, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2808.0 per ton, down $500.0 from the previous week, a 2.3% decrease [13] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21340.0 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.4% decrease compared to the previous week [19] Production - In October 2025, the aluminum production was 3.742 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [50] - The alumina production for the same month was 7.785 million tons, also showing a month-on-month increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [50] Inventory - As of November 20, the domestic mainstream consumption area of aluminum ingot inventory recorded 621,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous week [7] - The overall inventory situation remains a concern as the market enters the off-season, with potential risks of inventory accumulation [9] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the industry include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift is anticipated to enhance cash flow and dividend yields for companies in the sector, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones [7][27] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitutes for Japanese semiconductor materials due to rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which could accelerate the domestic market's growth in this area [6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The chemical industry has shown a relative performance increase of 16.1% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 11.6% [4] Key Price Movements - DMC (Dimethyl Carbonate) prices rose to 4400 CNY/ton, up 14.29% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from the electrolyte sector [14] - Lithium battery electrolyte prices increased to 27000 CNY/ton, up 8.00% week-on-week, although profit margins for manufacturers are under pressure due to rising raw material costs [14] - Diammonium phosphate prices in East China reached 3850 CNY/ton, up 5.48% week-on-week, amid rising production costs [14] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four key opportunities in the chemical sector: 1. Low-cost expansion, focusing on companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9] 2. Improved industry conditions, particularly in chromium salts and phosphate rock [10] 3. New materials with high growth potential, such as electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [11] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Chemical [11] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with many rated as "Buy" [28]

2025 年 11 月 23 日 债券研究周报 [Table_Title] 30 年国债切券的来龙去脉 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 相关报告 《债券研究周报：债市低波横盘的几条线索*颜子 琦，洪子彦》——2025-11-17 《固定收益专题研究：基金拉久期的背后*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2025-11-10 《固定收益点评：美元流动性危机来了吗？*颜子 琦，洪子彦》——2025-11-05 《债券研究周报：11 月债市有哪些机会？*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2025-11-02 《债券研究周报：同业存单已到配置时机*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2025-10-26 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、近期债券市场行情复盘；2、近期机 构行为变化；3、后续债市行情展望。 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 洪子彦 S0350525100001 hongzy@ghzq.com.cn | 1、 | 本周债市点评 | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2、 | 债券收益率曲线跟踪 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The lithium battery materials prices have long-term growth potential, and energy storage demand is expected to continue improving [1][4] - The power equipment sector shows positive fundamental changes and potential catalysts, maintaining an overall "Recommended" rating for the sector [8] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The power equipment sector has shown a performance of -1.4% over the last month, 20.6% over the last three months, and 24.4% over the last year, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] - The report highlights the ongoing supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic industry, with a focus on stabilizing prices amid fluctuating demand [4] Wind Power - The offshore wind pricing policies are favorable, with competitive bidding prices ranging from 0.3 to 0.391 CNY/kWh, indicating a supportive environment for project acceleration [5][6] - The onshore wind market is expected to maintain year-on-year growth, with an average annual demand for wind turbines projected to reach around 140GW [6] Energy Storage - As of November 18, 2025, there are 40.15GW/167.24GWh of GWh-level energy storage projects under construction or in operation, with significant projects located in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu [6] - Trina Solar's energy storage business is experiencing continuous growth in orders, with a recent contract for 2.66GWh of storage products signed with clients across North America, Europe, and Latin America [6] Lithium Battery - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain are advancing solid-state battery developments, with significant production capabilities being established [7] - A major agreement between Rongbai Technology and CATL for sodium battery materials is expected to enhance the industrialization of sodium batteries [7] AIDC - NVIDIA's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue of $57.01 billion, driven by strong demand for data center products [7] - The ongoing development in AIDC is anticipated to drive demand for power equipment technology upgrades [7] Power Grid - Five flexible interconnection projects have been approved, with a total investment of 24.4 billion CNY, aimed at enhancing inter-provincial power support capabilities [8] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in power infrastructure driven by the increasing penetration of clean energy [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to maintain a stable and slightly strong price trend due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [7][75] - The overall supply and demand for coal remain balanced, with port coal prices holding steady [14][73] - The report highlights the resilience of leading coal companies, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability characteristics [7][75] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of November 21, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 834 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 0.14 percentage points to 89.93% as of November 19, indicating stable supply [21][73] - Electricity consumption in October reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, driven by low base effects and seasonal heating demand [14][73] 2. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port decreased to 1780 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week [39][40] - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.07 percentage points to 84.3% during the week of November 12-19, indicating a slight recovery in supply [39][74] - The average crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port remains high, with a seven-day average of 1,339 vehicles [39][74] 3. Coke - The report notes that coking enterprises have completed four rounds of price increases, improving profit margins [52][75] - The production capacity utilization of coking enterprises increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 74.21% [52][75] - The average profit per ton of coke increased to approximately 19 CNY/ton, reflecting improved profitability in the sector [56] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with the small block price at 930 CNY/ton as of November 21 [68][75] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, all of which are rated as "Buy" [9][75] - The report emphasizes the strong financial health and growth potential of leading coal companies, suggesting a favorable investment environment [7][75]