Key Insights - Export growth in April was 8.1% year-on-year, supported mainly by re-export trade, but signs of decline appeared in May, indicating potential pressure on exports in June and July [3] - MDI prices are rising, and the value of phosphate rock is expected to be reassessed due to ongoing supply-demand tightness, with a focus on Ba Tian Co.'s capacity expansion [5][7] - The chemical industry is anticipated to enter a restocking cycle in 2025, driven by inventory depletion and improving profitability among leading companies [8][30] - The computer industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 15.65% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, and a significant rebound in net profit [33][39] Group 1: Export and Economic Impact - April's export growth was primarily driven by re-export trade, with a potential decline expected in May due to tariff impacts [3] - The relationship between export recovery and bond market stability is influenced by inflation dynamics, with current export price indices remaining negative [3] Group 2: Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical sector is expected to benefit from a restocking cycle in 2025, with low inventory levels and improving profit margins among major players [8][30] - Phosphate rock supply-demand tightness is projected to continue, with Ba Tian Co. expanding its phosphate mining capacity significantly [5][7] Group 3: Computer Industry Developments - The computer industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, indicating a potential turning point [33][39] - High-end processors and server markets are showing robust growth, contributing to overall industry performance [32][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor [1][30]. Core Views - The new capacity depreciation is squeezing profit margins, but localized production increases are expected [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, Huahong Semiconductor reported revenue of $541 million, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 17.6% [2][6]. - The company achieved a net profit of $4 million, recovering from a net loss of $25 million in Q4 2024, although this represents a year-over-year decline of 88.2% [2][6]. - The quarterly wafer shipment volume reached 1.23 million equivalent eight-inch wafers, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.5% and a year-over-year increase of 20% [2][6]. - The capacity utilization rate was 102.7%, down 0.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but up 11 percentage points year-over-year [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company guided revenue between $530 million and $550 million, with a Bloomberg consensus estimate of $548 million [6]. - The gross margin was reported at 9.2%, down 2.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but up 2.8 percentage points year-over-year, with guidance set between 9% and 11% [6]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between $550 million and $570 million, with a gross margin forecast of 7% to 9% [6]. - The report projects revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be $2.279 billion, $2.823 billion, and $3.192 billion respectively, with net profits of $92 million, $183 million, and $271 million respectively [6][8]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target price of HKD 36.84 based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.25x for the estimated book value per share in 2026 [6][30]. - The price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 79.29, 40.05, and 22.47 respectively [8][30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The petrochemical industry is under pressure in 2024, with the company waiting for a recovery in industry conditions [3] - The company achieved operating revenue of 326.48 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 37.4% to 0.72 billion yuan [6][20] - The company is expanding its new materials product matrix with multiple new projects coming online, which is expected to enhance product value [10] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 74.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.1 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of main products [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 0.59 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.04 billion yuan year-on-year [7] - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 343.0 billion yuan, 359.9 billion yuan, and 373.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 2.738 billion yuan, 4.592 billion yuan, and 6.226 billion yuan [10][12] Product Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from refining products was 117.9 billion yuan, down 3.31% year-on-year, while the gross margin was 17.6%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points [6] - Chemical products revenue was 121.8 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with a gross margin of 13.6%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points [6] - The polyester film segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 18.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.75%, driven by the production of a new multifunctional polyester chip project [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the private refining sector, continuously investing in new materials projects to enhance product value and sustain growth [10] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected PE ratio of 32, 19, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting its growth potential [10][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operations and significant achievements in cost control, with a net profit margin of 8.1%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross profit margin of 13.9%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][5] - The company reported a total revenue of 39.81 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.81 billion yuan, an increase of 1.45% year-on-year [6][5] - The company successfully transferred 100% equity of Guoneng Engineering Company, contributing an additional 145 million yuan to the net profit attributable to shareholders [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's average on-grid electricity price decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the on-grid electricity volume fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with specific contributions from thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power generation [6] - The company’s financial expenses decreased by 200 million yuan to 1.42 billion yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio decreased by 0.35 percentage points to 73.05% [6] - The proportion of shareholders' equity increased to 56.5%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 178 billion, 186.1 billion, and 188 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 6.58 billion, 7 billion, and 7.67 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [6][8] - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in hydro and coal power performance, while the renewable energy business is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory [6]

2025 年 05 月 12 日 宏观深度研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 夏磊 S0350521090004 xial@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 土地市场的新变化 宏观深度研究 最近一年走势 《宏观深度研究：房地产市场止跌回稳新特征*夏 磊》——2025-04-15 《宏观专题研究：如何看美国当前的债务现状？* 夏磊》——2025-04-08 《 财 政 支 出 前 置 促 经 济 回 升 * 夏 磊 》 — — 2025-03-26 2025 年 4 月 25 日中共中央政治局会议再次强调，加快构建房地产 发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存量商品房收购政策，持 续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 今年一季度房地产市场修复明显，供给侧土地市场同步释放积极信 号。土地市场展现出五点新变化，包括核心城市土地市场活跃、地 方政府土地供应积极、房企拿地意愿提升、土拍溢价率升高、不同 城市拿地房企分化等。 核心城市土地市场活跃 北京 2025 年 1 季度土地市场共成交 11 宗涉宅用地，成交建筑面积 120.5 万方，同比下降 12%；成交金额 569 亿元，同比上涨 45.3%。 2025 年 ...

2025 年 05 月 12 日 北交所行业研究 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 涨幅延续、交易 放缓，交大铁发提交注册（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》 ——2025-04-21 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周北证 50 实现领涨、交投活跃度明显提升， 下周天工股份上市 ——北交所行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | 26.04% | 16.37% | 69.03% | | 沪深 | 300 | 5.35% | -1.20% | 5.95% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 小幅回调，下周 天工 股份申购 （推荐）* 中小 盘* 罗琨 》—— 2025-04-28 《北交所行业周报：本周整体市场波动较大，鼎佳 精密、岷山环能两家企业上会通过（推 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (0992.HK) [1][10]. Core Insights - Lenovo Group has launched the "Tianxi" super intelligent agent, marking a significant breakthrough in hybrid artificial intelligence, which serves as a cognitive operating system for individuals and enterprises [4]. - The introduction of the inference acceleration engine enhances Lenovo's AI PC competitiveness by optimizing hardware and software collaboration, addressing industry pain points related to model efficiency and computational power [4]. - With the expected increase in AI PC penetration from 18% in 2024 to 70% by 2028, Lenovo, as the leading global PC market player, is poised to benefit significantly [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Lenovo Group are projected at $67.658 billion, $74.763 billion, and $80.869 billion for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be $1.540 billion, $1.573 billion, and $1.966 billion for the same periods [5][8]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in Lenovo's performance as AI functionalities penetrate the PC market, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.6x, 9.4x, and 7.5x for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 [5][8].

2025 年 05 月 12 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 袁冠 S0350524050001 | | | | yuang@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 张馨月 S0350124070008 | | | | zhangxy05@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2025 年 Q1 业绩同比高增，产品谱系持续拓展 ——九号公司（689009）科创板公司动态研究 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/05/09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 九号公司 | 14.7% | 22.8% | 62.6% | | 沪深 300 | 4.3% | -1.2% | 5.0% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/05/09 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 62.49 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 35.98-68.32 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 4,482. ...

研究所： 2025 年 05 月 12 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025Q1 公司收入增速高于行业销量增速，费用 率控制优秀 ——中国重汽（000951）公司动态研究 | 相对沪深 | 表现 300 | | | 2025/05/09 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 中国重汽 | | -13.7% | -5.9% | 6.9% | | 沪深 300 | | 4.3% | -1.2% | 5.0% | | 市场数据 | 2025/05/09 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 17.05 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 13.39-20.88 | | 总市值（百万） | 20,031.52 | | 流通市值（百万） | 20,031.52 | | 总股本（万股） | 117,486.94 | | 流通股本（万股） | 117,486.94 | | 日均成交额（百万） | 170.9 ...

证券研究报告 2025年05月12日 计算机 行业拐点或已显现，迎接AI时代晨曦 ——计算机2024年报和2025一季报总结 评级：推荐(维持) 刘熹(证券分析师) S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -26% -9% 8% 24% 41% 58% 2024/05/08 2024/07/08 2024/09/08 2024/11/08 2025/01/08 2025/03/08 2025/05/08 计算机 沪深300 《计算机行业深度：大模型研究框架（2025）——"大模型"系列（5）（推 荐）*计算机*刘熹》——2025-04-21 《计算机"人工智能"系列专题：AutoGLM沉思： DeepResearch+Operator，开启智能体新阶段（推荐）*计算机*刘熹》— —2025-04-17 《计算机行业深度报告：关税对自主可控的影响拆解——计算机"自主可控" 系列报告（3）（推荐）*计算机*刘熹》——2025-04-11 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算 ...