2025 年 06 月 04 日 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 93 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 氧化铬绿涨价，化工安全问题多发，关注化工行业去产能--行业周报 2024 年我国氢能消费规模世界第一，星舰第九次试飞失败--行业周报 2025Q1 毛利率环比提升，纯电智驾潜力大--理想汽车-W/乘用车(02015/212805) 点评报告（港股美股） 等待破局--策略月报 铝行业周报：关税压力有望进一步缓和，淡季去库表现好--行业 PPT 报告 本周北交所流动性收缩，世昌股份/志高机械上会通过--北交所行业普通报告 乘用车座椅放量+格拉默整合向上，公司 2025 年有望进入收获期--继峰股份/汽车零部件(603997/212802) 公 司深度研究 HNB 行业专题：寡头垄断优质市场，新品迭代驱动持续增长——日本 HNB 市场研究--行业 PPT 报告 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 研究所： 1.1、氧化铬绿涨价，化工安全问题多发，关注化工行业去产能--行业周报 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 分析师：李永磊 S03 ...

证券研究报告 2025年06月03日 电力设备 HNB行业专题：寡头垄断优质市场，新品迭代驱动持续 增长——日本HNB市场研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 李航(证券分析师) | 马川琪(证券分析师) | 张竞元(联系人) | | --- | --- | --- | | S0350521120006 | S0350523050001 | S0350124050014 | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | macq@ghzq.com.cn | zhangjy02@ghzq.com.cn | 核心提要 u 日本HNB市场格局：寡头垄断，主打产品迭代驱动增长 u 投资建议及风险提示 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明 2 u 日本HNB市场概览：全球最大HNB市场之一，政策及消费习惯驱动 ü 日本HNB市场为全球最大市场之一，2023年已达百亿美金规模。HNB产品即为"加热不燃烧"烟草制品，通过外源加热而非点燃烟叶的方式 实现吸食，为主流新型电子烟产品之一，而日本HNB市场则为全球最大市场之一，2023年已增长至百亿美金规模，市场容量与成长性均可 观。 ü 政策环境稳定，奠定良性增长基础，消费习惯与偏好 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a harvest period in 2025 due to the ramp-up of passenger car seat production and the integration of Grammer [2][5] - Positive changes observed in 2024 include the first annual breakeven for passenger car seats, asset divestiture from Grammer, and the growth of new products like hidden electric air vents and car refrigerators [5][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the automotive headrest market and is expanding into complete seat assemblies, creating a second growth avenue [15] - The company has evolved from a domestic headrest leader to a global interior supplier, with significant growth opportunities in the seat business [15][19] Passenger Car Seats - The passenger car seat market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, driven by enhanced consumer demand and increased seat functionality [6][44] - The company has a robust order book with over 20 ongoing projects, expecting revenues from passenger car seats to reach 5-7 billion yuan in 2025 [6][9] Grammer Integration - The integration of Grammer has seen operational improvements in Europe and Asia, while the Americas have faced losses [6][22] - The company plans to divest the loss-making TMD assets in North America, which is expected to improve overall financial performance [6][22] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 25.99 billion yuan in 2025 to 32.11 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 17% [8] - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly, reaching 631 million yuan in 2025 and 1.45 billion yuan by 2027 [8] Market Trends - The average value of passenger car seats is anticipated to rise to 5,000 yuan by 2025, with the domestic market size projected to reach 139.1 billion yuan [44] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced seat features and lightweight materials [43][44]

2025 年 06 月 03 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周北交所流动性收缩，世昌股份/志高机械上 会通过 ——北交所行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | 8.96% | 3.12% | 79.99% | | 沪深 | 300 | 1.73% | -3.22% | 6.27% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 阶段性回调，下 周世昌股份/志高机械上会、交大铁发申购（推荐） *中小盘*罗琨》——2025-05-26 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 继续领涨，交投 活跃度持续上升，天工股份正式上市（推荐）*中 小盘*罗琨》——2025-05-19 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 实现领涨、交投 活跃度明显提升，下周天工股份上市（推荐 ...

证券研究报告 2025年06月03日 有色金属 铝行业周报：关税压力有望进一步缓和，淡季去库表现好 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -20% -12% -4% 4% 12% 20% 2024/06 2024/09 2024/11 2025/02 2025/05 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：国内政策利好释放，几内亚铝土矿供应扰动（推荐）*有色金 属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-05-25 《铝行业周报：中美双边关税大幅下降，库存维持强势表现（推荐）*有色金 属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-05-18 《铝行业周报：关税压力缓和，政策定调积极（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2025-04-28 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 1.4% | 4.0% | 0.0% | | 沪深300 | 1.8% | -1.3% | ...

2025 年 06 月 03 日 策略月报 | 研究所： | | | | [Table_Title] | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 胡国鹏 | S0350521080003 | | 等待破局 | | | | hugp@ghzq.com.cn | | | | 证券分析师： | 袁稻雨 | S0350521080002 | —— | 月月报 6 | | | yuandy@ghzq.com.cn | | | | 最近一年走势 相关报告 《全球 ETF 格局演变与中国市场未来机遇—— ETF 系列报告（一）*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-30 《业绩基准如何选择*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-29 《策略周报：并购重组标的如何选择*胡国鹏，袁 稻雨》——2025-05-25 《策略周报：指数冲关的条件和占优风格*胡国 鹏，袁稻雨》——2025-05-17 投资要点: 风险提示：政策落地不及预期；经济超预期变化；海外关税政策的不确 定性；地缘政治突发风险；文中涉及标的仅为相关概念股仅供参考，不 做任何个股推荐；对政策的理解可能存在偏差等。 国海 ...

2025 年 06 月 03 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 92 期 观点精粹: 我们认为 Meta 不仅通过 AI 优先的战略构建了世界一流的 AI 内容广告推荐系统和大模型，还有望通过"AI+ 主营业务"实现大规划 AI 货币化变现。我们看好 Meta AI 优先战略，认为公司不仅能凭借全球领先的 GPU 驱 动的生成式 AI 推荐系统推动用户时长与活跃度的进一步增长，还能借助 Advantage+ AI 广告系统进一步提升 广告 CPM，对于开源大模型 Llama，公司也能通过智能眼镜、Click-to-Message、AI 助手互动广告等实现深 度变现。 核心问题一：如何量化 AI 对 Meta 业务的弹性贡献？ AI 推荐系统是 Meta 资本开支的主要方向，公司有望凭借 GPU 驱动的生成式 AI 推荐系统稳固社交龙头地位。 公司于 2024Q1 宣布建成 GPU 驱动的 Reels AI 统一推荐系统，采用 10 万片 H100 GPU，驱动 8%-10%的用 ...

2025 年 06 月 02 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | | 1.4% | -1.4% | 27.4% | | 沪深 | 300 | 1.8% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 相关报告 《特斯拉官网开放多个 Optimus 相关岗位，北京亦 庄人形机器人半程马拉松成功举办——人形机器 人行业 2025 年 4 月月报（推荐）*汽车*吴铭杰， 戴畅》——2025-05-14 《马斯克提出星舰将于 2026 年携带"擎天柱"前 往火星，宇树 G1 机器人首次完成侧空翻——人形 机器人行业 2025 年 3 月月报（推荐）*汽车*吴铭 杰，戴畅》——2025-04-07 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 尊界 [Table_Title] S800、小鹏 MONA M03 Max 上市，比亚 迪/吉利/奇瑞宣布限时优惠 ——汽车行业周报 《宇树科技 CEO 王兴兴出 ...

Group 1: Key Points on Tariff Policy - The U.S. government plans to cancel 91% of additional tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, retaining 10%[4] - In FY2024, U.S. tariff revenue is projected to be approximately $77.04 billion, accounting for 1.57% of total fiscal revenue[12] - In April 2025, U.S. tariff revenue reached $16.3 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of about 86% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 130%[12] Group 2: Economic Implications - The IMF has downgraded the global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with a 40% probability of U.S. economic recession[43] - The proposed tax reform aims to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, potentially increasing public debt by at least $3 trillion[43] - The U.S. faces significant interest expenses, with FY2024 federal interest payments estimated at $1.13 trillion, and $684.1 billion already spent by April 2025[14] Group 3: Political Considerations - Trump's approval rating was reported at 42%, the lowest during his second term, with only 39% approval for his economic performance[11] - The upcoming midterm elections in November 2026 are a significant concern for the Trump administration, as historical trends suggest potential losses for the incumbent party[11] - Support for specific proposals, such as increasing tariffs as a negotiation strategy, stands at 49% among voters[11] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. capital markets experienced a significant downturn, with major indices dropping between 5.5% and 5.97%[18] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 8.2% year-to-date, reflecting market reactions to tariff policies[18] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating increased concerns over fiscal stability[18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in overseas social networking, leveraging a diverse product matrix to capture global opportunities [8]. - The report highlights the company's stable core business in social networking, with strong growth potential from late-stage products [8]. - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is noted as a strategic move to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the launch of the HeeSay brand aimed at expanding into Southeast Asia and Western markets [9]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the casual gaming sector, with a notable increase in revenue from its flagship game [10]. Company Overview - The company has a decade-long history of development, combining self-developed and acquired products to build a diverse product matrix [14][15]. - The business model is divided into two main segments: social business and innovative business, with social business contributing the majority of revenue [17]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 6.628 billion in 2025, 8.297 billion in 2026, and 10.274 billion in 2027 [6]. - The company expects a rebound in net profit, forecasting 980 million in 2025, 1.335 billion in 2026, and 1.774 billion in 2027 [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA is also anticipated to rise, with projections of 1.319 billion in 2025 and 1.739 billion in 2026 [6]. Market Position - The global social application market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company focusing on localized operations and a multi-modal product strategy to meet diverse user needs [36][41]. - The report indicates that the company has a strong understanding of local markets, which enhances its operational effectiveness [56]. Product Strategy - The company has developed a multi-product strategy that allows for rapid iteration and testing, reducing marginal costs and diversifying market risk [57]. - Key products include MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, each targeting different social interaction needs [8][9]. Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the LGBTQ social networking space, particularly through the HeeSay brand [9]. - The casual gaming segment is also highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for continued revenue growth from new game releases [10].