Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly released on December 1, 2025, focusing on the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers from November 25 to December 1 [4]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From November 25 - December 1, the bond market seller sentiment declined slightly, the divergence decreased, the buyer sentiment turned optimistic, and the bearish views of both buyers and sellers disappeared this week. The year - end front - running market in the bond market is approaching, and the allocation value has emerged as the interest rate rises to the top of the central bank's desirable range. However, sellers are more cautious about the front - running market due to the sluggish institutional allocation willingness [4]. Section Summaries Seller Perspective - The bond market sentiment declined slightly. Based on the statistics of 20 seller institutions, the sentiment declined, many views turned neutral, and there were no bearish views this week. Currently, sellers are mostly neutral - bullish, with 10% being bullish, 20% being moderately bullish, and 70% being neutral [5]. - 10% of institutions are bullish, believing that strong expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, weak domestic economic data, falling housing prices, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle are favorable factors [5]. - 20% of institutions are moderately bullish, citing the year - end "calendar effect", institutional allocation demand, front - running and increasing positions, and weak economic fundamentals as positive factors [5]. - 70% of institutions are neutral, considering that factors such as policy uncertainty, risk preference, stock - bond seesaw, monetary policy attitude, and asset shortage are intertwined, and the market may enter a low - volatility shock state [5]. Buyer Perspective - The sentiment index turned from negative to positive. Based on the views of 25 fixed - income buyer institutions, the number of moderately bullish views increased, and there were no bearish views. Overall, buyers are neutral - bullish, with 36% being moderately bullish and 64% being neutral [6]. - 36% of institutions are moderately bullish, believing that the interest rate has reached the upper limit of the desirable range, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the risk preference may decline [6]. - 64% of institutions are neutral, citing policy uncertainty, institutional behavior disturbances, insufficient odds, high operation difficulty, lack of a one - sided main line, and the market entering a wait - and - see period [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [2] Core Insights - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the week of November 24 to November 28, 2025, with a sector index increase of 3.2% compared to the index's 1.4% rise [5][16] - The report highlights the submission of an IPO application by Avita Technology to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant step in its global strategy [12][30] - The report notes that the new energy vehicle sales reached 177.2 million units in October 2025, accounting for 51.6% of total new vehicle sales [34] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector index increased by 3.2% from November 24 to November 28, 2025, with passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, parts, and services showing respective increases of 2.6%, 2.0%, 3.7%, and 3.9% [5][16] - The report indicates that major players like Li Auto, Xpeng, NIO, and Geely saw stock price increases of 4.8%, 6.9%, 1.3%, 12.2%, and 1.4% respectively during the same period [5][16] Company Performance - NIO reported a revenue of 21.79 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, while its net loss narrowed to 3.48 billion yuan [13][31] - Xpeng's Q3 revenue reached 20.38 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 101.8% [13][31] - Li Auto experienced a decline in deliveries by 39.0% year-on-year, with a revenue drop of 36.2% to 27.365 billion yuan, resulting in a net loss of 624 million yuan [13][31] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a potential decline in passenger vehicle year-on-year growth by the end of 2025 due to high base effects and the temporary withdrawal of certain subsidies [15] - It suggests that the high-end passenger vehicle market may perform better in 2026, particularly for domestic brands with offerings above 300,000 yuan [15] - Recommendations include companies like JAC Motors, Geely, Xpeng, Great Wall Motors, SAIC Motor, Li Auto, Seres, and BYD for passenger vehicles [15] Key Recommendations - For automotive parts, the report recommends companies benefiting from the penetration of high-level intelligence into lower-priced models, including Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot [15][6] - In the commercial vehicle sector, it suggests companies like Weichai Power, Foton Motor, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group as beneficiaries of the recovering demand for heavy trucks [15][6]

2025 年 12 月 01 日 策略周报 | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 赵阳 S0350525100003 | | | | zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭可凡 S0350124070038 | | | | guokf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] ETF 资金净流出，宏观流动性边际收敛 ——流动性周报 12 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 《流动性周报 11 月第 1 期：基金发行端回暖，杠 杆资金有所放缓*赵阳》——2025-11-24 《存款搬家如何演绎——牛市资金面专题研究 (一)*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》——2025-08-10 《全球 ETF 格局演变与中国市场未来机遇—— ETF 系列报告（一）*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-30 2025-05-29 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 1. 本周（2025/11/24-2025/11/28）宏观资金面边际收敛，央行通过公开 市场操作开展 7 天逆回购净 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the impact of regulatory changes on wealth management strategies and the bond market, highlighting a shift towards defensive asset allocation in response to market volatility and regulatory tightening [3][4][5] - In 2024, wealth management strategies are expected to rebalance with an increased focus on liquidity management through funds and a gradual extension of holding durations under yield pressure [4][5] - By the end of 2024, stricter regulations will limit wealth management strategies, leading to a cautious approach in bond allocations, particularly favoring short-term credit bonds [5] Group 2 - The report on LiuGong (000528) emphasizes the company's strong position in the excavator and loader markets, benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand and a push towards electrification [6][8] - LiuGong's electric loader market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from RMB 2.9 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.4 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 50.1% [7][8] - The company aims to achieve RMB 60 billion in revenue by 2030, with over 60% of that coming from international markets, supported by its strong product offerings and export strategies [9] Group 3 - The report highlights the ongoing demand for energy storage, driven by the need for renewable energy integration, with a focus on lithium battery material price recovery [26][30] - The energy storage capacity in Hubei province is projected to reach 8 GW by 2027, with a significant portion coming from new energy storage solutions [29] - The report suggests that the demand for lithium battery materials will continue to grow, with companies like CATL and BYD leading the charge in solid-state battery development [30][31] Group 4 - The report on Deleja (603092) outlines the company's position as the second-largest wind power gearbox supplier in China, with a market share of 16.2% and a focus on high profitability [36][37] - The domestic wind power demand is expected to surge, with an annual average demand of 140 GW projected during the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to significant market opportunities for Deleja [37][38] - The company anticipates rapid revenue growth, with forecasts of RMB 51.4 billion, RMB 69.5 billion, and RMB 82.75 billion in revenue from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong market position and expansion plans [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to see upward price momentum in December due to seasonal demand increases and low inventory levels [6][72] - The production recovery from previously halted coal mines is contributing to a slight increase in supply, while demand from power plants continues to rise [3][13] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with strong cash flows and high dividend yields [6] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of November 28, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 816 RMB/ton, a decrease of 18 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][14] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 1.37 percentage points, reaching 91.3% [19] - Power plant coal inventories are at 136.4 million tons, down 23.3 million tons year-on-year [13][31] 2. Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization for coking coal increased by 0.33 percentage points to 84.6% [38] - The average price of main coking coal at ports is 1670 RMB/ton, down 110 RMB/ton week-on-week [39] - Coking coal inventories at production enterprises increased by 15.71 thousand tons [46] 3. Coke - Coking enterprises are experiencing a recovery in profits, leading to increased production activity [51] - The average profit per ton of coke has risen to approximately 46 RMB/ton, an increase of 27 RMB/ton week-on-week [55] - The price of coke at the port remains stable at 1680 RMB/ton [52] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with the market supply still tight due to strict environmental regulations [67] - The price of small block anthracite is 930 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [67] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [8] - The report emphasizes the strong cash flow and high dividend yields of leading coal companies, making them attractive investment options [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum price is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to inventory depletion and macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][10] - The demand for aluminum is gradually entering a low season, with the aluminum water conversion rate facing downward pressure [10] - Long-term supply growth in the aluminum industry is limited, while demand still has growth points, indicating sustained high prosperity in the industry [10] Summary by Sections 1. Price - As of November 28, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2865.0 per ton, up $57.0 from the previous week, a 2.0% increase week-on-week, and up $263.0 year-on-year, a 10.1% increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 21610.0 yuan per ton, up 270.0 yuan from the previous week, a 1.3% increase week-on-week, and up 1035.0 yuan year-on-year, a 5.0% increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 21430.0 yuan per ton, up 70.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.3% increase week-on-week, and up 910.0 yuan year-on-year, a 4.4% increase [22] 2. Production - In November 2025, the aluminum production is 363.7 million tons, a decrease of 10.6 million tons month-on-month, and a decrease of 6.6 million tons year-on-year [51] - The alumina production in November 2025 is 743.9 million tons, a decrease of 34.6 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 15.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of November 27, the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [7] - The aluminum rod inventory is 131,000 tons, down 6500 tons week-on-week, reflecting a steady decline in inventory [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.25 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.54 yuan in 2025E and 2.77 yuan in 2026E [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.96 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.00 yuan in 2025E and 1.27 yuan in 2026E [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.91 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.13 yuan in 2025E and 2.56 yuan in 2026E [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market had a slight correction in the latest week. From November 24th to 28th, the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rose from 1.82% to 1.84%. There is a potential negative change in the institutional behavior pattern of the bond market at the end of the year, i.e., the willingness of rural commercial banks to buy bonds during corrections has decreased, which may amplify market fluctuations if there is a correction in the future [7][12]. - Rural commercial banks have been net buyers in the secondary market this year, with a cumulative net purchase of over 1 trillion yuan of 10Y Treasury bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds as of November 28th, about twice that of previous years. They may have a lower allocation willingness due to their own duration assessment and other indicators [7][12]. - In the latest week, funds significantly net sold Treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, while the allocation of rural commercial banks to 10-year Treasury bonds was less than that of joint-stock banks. Other institutions may partially replace rural commercial banks in "undertaking" bonds, which may cause the interest rate to rise excessively during corrections. However, the market after the correction may still be a good buying point [7][13]. - The capital market was relatively stable this week. The duration of bond funds decreased overall, and large banks continued to buy medium- and short-term bonds [7][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market corrected this week. From November 24th to 28th, the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rose from 1.82% to 1.84%. Rural commercial banks' willingness to buy bonds during corrections has decreased, which may amplify market fluctuations [7][12]. - Rural commercial banks have bought more and sold less this year. The bond market has mostly been in a state of shock and correction, and interest rate declines have been rapid, so they have had few opportunities to take profits. As of November 28th, their cumulative net purchase this year exceeded 1 trillion yuan, about twice that of previous years [7][12]. - Funds significantly net sold Treasury bonds and policy financial bonds this week, while rural commercial banks' allocation of 10-year Treasury bonds was less than that of joint-stock banks. The market after the correction may still be a good buying point. The capital market was stable, the duration of bond funds decreased, and large banks continued to buy medium- and short-term bonds [7][13]. 3.2 Bond Yield Curve Tracking 3.2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of November 28th, compared with November 24th, the 1-year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.17bp to 1.40%; the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.02bp to 1.84%; the 30-year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.65bp to 2.19%. - The spread between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 0.63bp to 34.39bp, and the spread between the 10-year China Development Bank bond and the 10-year Treasury bond rose by 0.94bp to 13.28bp [15]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Term Spread Changes - As of November 28th, compared with November 24th, the 3Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread rose by 0.20bp to 3.34bp; the 5Y - 3Y Treasury bond spread rose by 2.36bp to 18.32bp; the 7Y - 5Y Treasury bond spread rose by 1.92bp to 12.49bp; the 10Y - 7Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 2.29bp to 9.80bp; the 20Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread rose by 1.48bp to 35.38bp; the 30Y - 20Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 0.85bp to -0.99bp [16]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage and Capital Market 3.3.1 Balance of Interbank Pledged Repurchase - As of November 28th, compared with November 24th, the balance of interbank pledged repurchase decreased by 0.31 trillion yuan to 11.05 trillion yuan [19]. 3.3.2 Changes in Interbank Bond Market Leverage Ratio - As of November 28th, compared with November 24th, the interbank bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.20pct to 106.58% [20]. 3.3.3 Pledged Repurchase Turnover - From November 24th to November 28th, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was 7.09 trillion yuan. The average daily overnight turnover was about 6.13 trillion yuan, and the average overnight turnover ratio was 86.66% [22][23]. 3.3.4 Operation of the Interbank Capital Market - From November 24th to November 28th, bank capital lending first increased and then decreased. As of November 28th, the net capital lending of large banks and policy banks was 4.40 trillion yuan, the net capital borrowing of joint-stock banks and urban and rural commercial banks was 0.63 trillion yuan, and the net capital lending of the banking system was 3.77 trillion yuan [28]. - Bank single-day capital lending first increased and then decreased. As of November 28th, the single-day capital lending of large banks and policy banks was 3.38 trillion yuan, and that of small and medium-sized banks was -0.67 trillion yuan [28]. - As of November 28th, DR001 was 1.3033%, DR007 was 1.4668%, R001 was 1.4252%, and R007 was 1.5222% [28]. 3.4 Duration of Medium- and Long-Term Bond Funds 3.4.1 Median Duration of Bond Funds - As of November 28th, the median duration of medium- and long-term bond funds (deleveraged) was 2.75 years, a decrease of 0.01 years compared with November 24th; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.93 years, a decrease of 0.03 years compared with November 24th [37]. 3.4.2 Median Duration of Interest Rate Bond Funds - As of November 28th, the median duration of interest rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.89 years, a decrease of 0.02 years compared with November 24th; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.72 years, a decrease of 0.01 years compared with November 24th. The median duration of interest rate bond funds (deleveraged) was 3.38 years, unchanged from November 24th; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.51 years, unchanged from November 24th [41]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance - As of November 28th, compared with November 24th, the borrowing volume of 10-year China Development Bank bonds showed fluctuations [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector is positioned as a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate into a long-term growth phase. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials supports one generation of industry," highlighting the foundational nature of the new materials industry as the material basis for other industries [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [5]. - A significant development is the plan to construct a large-scale data center system in Beijing, aimed at moving large-scale AI computing power to space, with operations expected to exceed 1 GW [6][22]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Key materials of interest are PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [7]. 3. New Energy Sector - The report highlights the focus on photovoltaic materials, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [9]. - As of October 2025, over 800 integrated projects for wind and solar hydrogen production have been planned in China, with a total green hydrogen capacity nearing 9 million tons per year [10]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - The focus is on synthetic biology and scientific services [11]. - A notable breakthrough in India involves the launch of a pilot plant for CO2 to DME conversion, marking a significant milestone in carbon recycling technology [12]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Key materials include adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [13]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a carbon emissions trading market allocation plan, which aims to incentivize companies based on their carbon emissions performance [14]. 6. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several key companies with their stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2026, indicating a positive outlook for many companies in the new materials sector [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a shift in supply chain dynamics due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in semiconductor materials, leading to accelerated domestic replacements [5][6] - The chromium salt industry is experiencing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with significant price increases noted [8][9] - The report highlights a potential upturn in the chemical industry as supply-side constraints and rising demand could enhance profitability and dividend yields for leading companies [6][10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a 24.0% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 16.9% [3] Key Opportunities - Focus on low-cost expansion opportunities in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as sectors like tire manufacturing and pesticide formulations [6][9] - Emphasis on sectors with improving market conditions, including chromium salts, phosphate rock, and polyester filament [9][10] Price Trends - Recent price increases for key products include chromium oxide green at 35,500 CNY/ton and metallic chromium at 84,000 CNY/ton, both up by 1,000 CNY/ton from the previous week [8][16] - The report notes a tightening supply for isooctanol, with prices rising due to increased demand and production disruptions [13] Company Focus - The report identifies several key companies for investment, including Dongfang Shenghong, Hubei Yihua, and Wanhua Chemical, with positive earnings forecasts and attractive price-to-earnings ratios [28]

Group 1: Report's Core Questions - The report addresses recent significant valuation adjustments in some science and technology innovation corporate bonds, with individual increases exceeding 20bp [4][11] - It analyzes the reasons for the valuation callback, which may be due to the convergence of trading spreads and issuance spreads [4][11] - It warns about the risk of catch - up decline caused by the convergence of China Securities valuation towards ChinaBond valuation [4][11] Group 2: Investment Highlights - Recently, many exchange - traded science and technology innovation corporate bonds have undergone significant valuation increases. From November 14 to 26, over 90% of the 603 valid science and technology innovation bond component bonds had valuation increases, with an average increase of about 6.6bp [6] - The reasons for the valuation increase may be the significant narrowing of the trading spread between science and technology innovation bonds and non - science and technology innovation bonds since November (from a peak of 25bp to 6bp on November 21) and the convergence of the issuance cost difference between the two (from about 10bp in September to less than 5bp as of November 14, 2025) [6] - The convergence of trading spreads and issuance coupons may have led to the valuation callback. As the ETF scale expansion slows, the demand - side support for science and technology innovation bonds weakens. There is a risk of catch - up decline when China Securities valuation converges towards ChinaBond valuation, and uncertainty in actual trading prices due to valuation differences [6] Group 3: Section - by - Section Summary 1. Recent Significant Valuation Increases in Some Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bonds 1.1 Significant Convergence of Component Premiums in Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs - Many exchange - traded science and technology innovation corporate bonds have had valuation callbacks, with some samples having a callback of over 20bp in mid - to - late November. As of November 26, the median component premium of science and technology innovation bond ETF component bonds was 6.3bp, showing a large compression [13] - The valuation adjustment of bilateral science and technology innovation bond component bonds was greater and earlier. From November 14 to 26, the median component premium decreased from 10.7bp to 6.6bp, a compression of about 7.9bp from the peak [14] 1.2 Which Individual Bonds Have Larger Valuation Adjustment Amplitudes? - From November 14 to 26, the average valuation increase of 603 valid science and technology innovation bond component bond samples was about 6.6bp. 93.4% (563 bonds) had valuation increases, and 24.0% (145 bonds) had an increase of over 10bp [15] - After excluding outliers, the component bond with the largest valuation increase had a cumulative increase of over 20bp, and 11 other component bonds had an increase of over 15bp [20] 2. Reasons for the Valuation Increase of Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bonds 2.1 Significant Narrowing of the Trading Spread between Science and Technology Innovation and Non - Science and Technology Innovation Bonds in November - Since November, the trading spread between science and technology innovation bond component bonds and non - component bonds has significantly narrowed, from a peak of 25bp to 6bp on November 21, and about 11bp compared to November 14, the lowest since August [25] 2.2 Convergence of Issuance Costs between 5 - Year Science and Technology Innovation and Non - Science and Technology Innovation Bonds - As of November 14, the weighted average coupon rate of 5 - year implied AAA science and technology innovation public - offering corporate bonds was about 1.90%, and that of non - science and technology innovation public - offering corporate bonds was 1.94%, with a difference of about 4bp, a significant convergence compared to previous months [27] 3. How to View the Valuation Callback of Science and Technology Innovation Bonds - The convergence of trading spreads and issuance coupons, along with the weakening demand - side support due to the slowdown of ETF scale expansion, may have led to the valuation callback of previously over - rising component bonds [30] - The valuation callback mainly occurs in ChinaBond valuation, while China Securities valuation has not adjusted significantly. As of November 26, China Securities valuation of component bonds was lower than ChinaBond valuation in major intervals, with the largest deviation of 5.9bp for bonds within 1 - year maturity [31] - Institutions using ChinaBond valuation for net - value calculation face net - value fluctuation risks, while those using China Securities valuation need to be aware of the catch - up decline risk when the two valuations converge and the uncertainty of actual trading prices [31]