Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [5] Core Insights - The report discusses how a civilian prediction indicator has become an "invisible driver" of asset prices, particularly in the steel and commodity sectors. It highlights the strong correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and various asset markets, including commodities, bonds, stocks, and foreign exchange [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating this prediction indicator with traditional economic data and policy interest rate curves for more comprehensive asset allocation [6][10] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The steel industry has shown a performance of -1.9% over the last month, -8.7% over the last three months, and 7.6% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has seen -0.4%, -3.3%, and 9.4% respectively [4] Asset Linkage Commodity Market - The report notes a significant rise in silver prices and a strong synchronization between the gold-silver ratio and the "U.S. recession expectation." It suggests that when recession probabilities decrease, silver, which has more industrial properties, tends to outperform gold [12] - The report also mentions that the crude oil VIX has shown a close correlation with the "U.S. recession expectation," indicating that market predictions of oil price volatility are influenced by recession expectations [12] Bond Market - The report indicates that when the "U.S. recession expectation" rises, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield tends to weaken, although recent trends show some divergence. The 10-2 year yield spread has shown a complex relationship with recession probabilities [15] Stock Market - The report highlights a strong negative correlation between the "U.S. recession expectation" and the S&P 500 index, suggesting that rising recession expectations directly impact corporate profit outlooks [21] - It also notes that the Russell 2000 to S&P 500 ratio has not returned to early-year highs despite a temporary decline in recession expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about long-term corporate profitability due to tariff policies [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The report states that the U.S. dollar index has mostly moved inversely to the "U.S. recession expectation," although a gap has emerged since May, potentially linked to U.S. fiscal risks and trade policy uncertainties [22] - The report also mentions that the USD/JPY exchange rate tends to weaken when recession expectations rise, indicating a flight to the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset [22]

Group 1: REITs Market Overview - The REITs index continues to rise, with property types showing strength this week, indicating a recovery in market activity [2][3] - As of June 13, 2025, the total market value of REITs reached 204.08 billion yuan, an increase of 2.01 billion yuan from the previous week [3][4] - The average weekly increase for property-type REITs was 0.95%, outperforming other categories [4] Group 2: H Acid Market Dynamics - The average market price of H acid as of June 13, 2025, was 41,750 yuan per ton, up 5,750 yuan per ton since early January 2025 [6][7] - Supply-demand tightness is expected to push H acid prices higher, with effective domestic production capacity currently below 60,000 tons, leading to a supply gap of over 10% [8][9] - Companies with integrated production capacity for H acid and reactive dyes, such as Zhejiang Longsheng and Jinchicken Co., are expected to benefit from rising prices [9][10] Group 3: North Exchange Market Insights - As of June 13, 2025, the North Exchange A-share component stocks totaled 267, with an average market capitalization of 3.046 billion yuan [11] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 3.11%, while the average daily trading volume increased by 31.28% compared to the previous week [11][12] - The newly listed company, Jiao Da Tie Fa, focuses on intelligent products and services for rail transit, with projected revenue of 335 million yuan for 2024 [12] Group 4: AI Chip Design System Launch - The world's first AI-based chip design system, "Enlightenment," was launched, achieving full automation in chip design processes [14][16] - The system can design a 32-bit RISC-V CPU in just five hours, matching the performance of Intel 486, and has completed its first silicon [16] - This innovation is expected to significantly enhance the efficiency of chip design and development in the semiconductor industry [16] Group 5: New Materials Industry Outlook - The new materials sector is anticipated to enter a growth phase driven by increasing downstream demand and supportive policies [14][25] - Key areas of focus include semiconductor materials, renewable energy technologies, and biodegradable plastics, which are expected to see significant investment and development [19][23] - The industry maintains a "recommended" rating due to its potential for growth and innovation [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, suggesting a focus on high-quality stocks with stable growth and reasonable valuations in the medium to long term [3][4]. Core Insights - The North Exchange (北交所) has shown a mixed performance, with the North Exchange 50 Index declining by 3.11% in the week ending June 13, 2025, while the average market capitalization of its constituent stocks is 3.046 billion [10][21]. - The report highlights the recent listing of Jiao Da Tie Fa (交大铁发), which specializes in rail transit intelligent products and services, with a projected revenue of 335 million and a net profit of 53 million for 2024 [27][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued stocks and thematic investments, particularly in sectors benefiting from infrastructure development and technological advancements [3][4]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of June 13, 2025, the North Exchange consists of 267 A-share stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.046 billion. The North Exchange 50 Index has experienced a decline of 3.11% during the week [10][15]. - The trading volume has increased, with an average daily turnover of 32.603 billion, up 31.28% from the previous week, indicating heightened market activity despite the index's decline [24][25]. Stock and Industry Performance - In the week from June 9 to June 13, 2025, 106 stocks rose, while 160 fell, resulting in a 39.70% increase ratio, which is a decrease of 28.34 percentage points from the previous week [15][21]. - The top-performing industries included petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, textiles, light manufacturing, and national defense, with respective gains of 37.78%, 20.66%, 12.90%, 6.51%, and 5.97% [21][22]. New Stock Updates - Jiao Da Tie Fa was listed on June 10, 2025, focusing on rail transit intelligent products and services, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from safety monitoring products [27][29]. - The report notes the approval of Sanxie Electric (三协电机) for listing and the registration submission of Zhigao Machinery (志高机械) [35][36]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on stocks with stable earnings growth and reasonable valuations, recommending specific companies such as Tongli Co. (同力股份) and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment (五新隧装) for their low valuations and potential benefits from infrastructure projects [3][4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" for investment, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [2][8]. Core Insights - The price center of H acid is expected to rise due to tightening supply and demand dynamics, with a current market average price of 41,750 RMB/ton as of June 13, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5,750 RMB/ton since early January 2025 [6][8]. - The active dye industry is undergoing a phase of industrial upgrading and consolidation, with many small and medium enterprises being eliminated due to sustained price pressure since late 2019 [6][8]. - H acid, a key raw material for producing active dyes, constitutes 30%-50% of the total cost, and its price increase is likely to positively impact active dye prices, which have recently risen from 20 RMB/kg to 23 RMB/kg [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - H acid production faces challenges such as high energy consumption and significant environmental pollution, leading to production halts in developed countries, with global capacity concentrated in China and India [6][8]. - Domestic effective H acid capacity is currently below 60,000 tons, resulting in a supply gap exceeding 10% [6][8]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The cost support from H acid is expected to facilitate a smoother transmission of price increases in active dyes, benefiting companies with integrated production capacities [6][8]. - The report highlights that companies like Zhejiang Longsheng, Jinchicken Co., Luntai Co., and Jihua Group are well-positioned to benefit from these dynamics [6][8]. Key Companies and Profit Forecast - Key companies to watch include: - Zhejiang Longsheng (Stock Code: 600352.SH) with an estimated EPS of 0.67 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16 [9]. - Jinchicken Co. (Stock Code: 300798.SZ) currently un-rated but with significant production capacity [9]. - Luntai Co. (Stock Code: 002440.SZ) with an estimated EPS of 0.25 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 33 [9]. - Jihua Group (Stock Code: 603980.SH) with an estimated EPS of 0.25 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 81 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1][17]. Core Viewpoints - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to enter a phase of accelerated long-term growth. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials supports one generation of industry," highlighting the foundational nature of the new materials industry as the material basis for other industries [4][17]. Summary by Sections 1. New Materials Industry Dynamics 1.1 Electronic Information Sector - Focus on semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [5]. - The global first AI-based processor chip design system "Enlightenment" was recently launched, achieving full automation in chip design, with significant performance metrics surpassing human-designed levels [6][24]. 1.2 Aerospace Sector - Key areas of interest include PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [7]. 1.3 New Energy Sector - Focus on photovoltaic materials, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [9]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a 70% increase in global investment in clean hydrogen compared to 2024, with total spending expected to reach approximately $7.8 billion in 2025 [10]. 1.4 Biotechnology Sector - Key areas include synthetic biology and scientific services [11]. 1.5 Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Focus on adsorbent resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [13]. 2. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report lists several key companies with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2026, indicating a positive outlook for many companies in the new materials sector [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The primary market has updates on two project statuses, with the secondary - market REITs index leading and market activity picking up. - The guaranteed rental housing sector leads the gains, and there are differences in trading volume and turnover rate among different sectors. - The valuation differences between equity - type and franchise - type REITs persist. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Dynamics - As of June 13, 2025, 7 products have been successfully issued in the public REITs market this year, 2 less than the same period last year. There are currently no products in the declared stage, 2 in the accepted stage, 1 in the in - query stage, 8 in the feedback stage, and 5 that have passed the review and are waiting for listing. - This week, the review status of two projects has been updated: one from declared to accepted, and the other from accepted to feedback. [3][8][9] 3.2 Secondary Market Review and Analysis - **Market Scale and Liquidity**: As of June 13, 2025, the total market value of public REITs has risen to 204.081 billion yuan, an increase of 2.007 billion yuan from the previous week. The total circulating market value has also increased to 95.089 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.509 billion yuan. The average daily turnover rate this week is 0.61%, up from 0.48% last week, indicating a slight increase in market trading activity. - **Index Performance**: The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 0.69% this week, outperforming the Dividend Index (- 0.52%), the ChinaBond - New Composite Wealth Index (0.18%), the CSI 300 Index (- 0.25%), and the CSI Convertible Bond Index (- 0.02%). The volatility of the CSI REITs Total Return Index is 0.23%, lower than that of the Dividend Index (0.41%) and the CSI 300 Index (0.60%), and higher than that of the ChinaBond - New Composite Wealth Index (0.03%). - **Sector Performance**: By project attribute, equity - type REITs had a weighted average weekly increase of 0.95%, better than the 0.42% of franchise - type REITs. By underlying asset type, the guaranteed rental housing sector led with a weighted average weekly increase of 1.54%, followed by the municipal environmental protection and water conservancy sector with a 1.02% increase. The energy infrastructure sector had the smallest increase at 0.06%. - **Individual Bond Performance**: Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT (4.32%) and Hua'an Bailian Consumption REIT (4.19%) led the gains. - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: In terms of weekly trading volume, the park infrastructure sector ranked first with 193 million shares, followed by transportation infrastructure (108 million shares), guaranteed rental housing (99 million shares), etc. In terms of weekly turnover rate, the municipal environmental protection and water conservancy sector led with 1.01%, followed by the guaranteed rental housing sector (0.81%). - **Valuation Level**: As of June 13, 2025, the average cash distribution rate of equity - type REITs is 3.78%, with the consumer infrastructure sector leading at 4.26%. The average cash distribution rate of franchise - type REITs is 8.05%, with the municipal facilities sector leading at 12.21%. The Zhongzhai REITs valuation yield (IRR) of equity - type REITs (4.02%) is higher than that of franchise - type REITs (3.23%), and the PV multiplier of franchise - type REITs (1.27) is lower than that of equity - type REITs (1.31). [3][11][14][19][23][25]

Group 1 - Quantum Song acquired 61% of Letsvan for 235 million RMB, marking its entry into the trendy toy market [5][6] - Quantum Song's Q1 2025 revenue was 570 million RMB, down 39.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million RMB, up 181.2% [3][4] - Letsvan has a rich IP portfolio and aims to enhance its brand influence through retail partnerships and self-operated stores [6][7] Group 2 - Zhaoyi Innovation has expanded its product lines in the storage and MCU sectors, becoming a top three global supplier of NOR Flash [9][10] - The global storage market is projected to reach 204.28 billion USD by 2025, with NAND Flash and DRAM being the largest segments [10][11] - Zhaoyi Innovation's revenue is expected to grow from 9.38 billion RMB in 2025 to 13.55 billion RMB in 2027, with a net profit increase from 1.54 billion RMB to 2.52 billion RMB [16] Group 3 - The pilot policy for smart elderly care robots has been launched, with a trial period from 2025 to 2027 [17][18] - Skild AI raised 250 million USD in funding from Nvidia and others, boosting its valuation to approximately 45 billion USD [20] - The humanoid robot market is expected to see significant growth, with various companies launching new products and technologies [28][29] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is focusing on the replacement of cheap metals and the growth of distributed energy storage [30][31] - The global energy storage market is experiencing high demand, with significant growth in both large-scale and distributed storage solutions [33][34] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing towards commercialization, with potential applications in high-end electric vehicles and robotics [35] Group 5 - The automotive supply chain is expected to see reduced payment terms for suppliers, enhancing cash flow efficiency [36] - The AI infrastructure is accelerating, with OpenAI releasing a new model that enhances capabilities while reducing costs [37] - The first ultra-high voltage direct current transmission project from the Shagou Desert renewable energy base has been commissioned, indicating a shift towards high-capacity energy transmission [38]

研究所： | 证券分析师： | | 靳毅 S0350517100001 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | jiny01@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 马闻倬 S0350124070011 | | | | mawz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 资金还能更宽松吗？ 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 | 《固定收益点评：债市还有哪些隐忧？*靳毅》— | | --- | | —2025-06-08 | | 《固定收益点评：存单利率还会上行吗？*靳毅》 | | ——2025-05-26 | | 《固定收益点评：出口，会扰动债市吗？*靳毅》 | | ——2025-05-12 | | 《固定收益点评：震荡行情中，何处破局？*靳毅》 | | ——2025-05-05 | 2025 年 06 月 15 日 固定收益点评 《固定收益点评：5 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-04-27 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 从基本面维度看，地产表现、信贷需求仍然存在一定下行压力，资 金面没有收紧的基础。地产方面，30 大中城市商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The Israel-Iran conflict is expected to impact the Chinese chemical industry through increased demand for military materials and agricultural products, benefiting companies involved in metal chromium, nitrocellulose, carbon fiber, and rubber materials [4][5] - Supply-side constraints are anticipated due to potential disruptions in oil and gas supplies from Iran, affecting various chemical products [4] - The report highlights the rising prices of chromium salts and the potential for increased profitability in the sector, particularly for companies like Zhenhua Co. [5][6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 8.8% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has seen a 9.6% increase [3] Key Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment opportunities: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [9] 2. Improved industry sentiment for chromium salts and phosphate rock [9] 3. New materials with high growth potential, particularly in electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [10] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector [10] Company Focus - Zhenhua Co. is highlighted for its significant production capacity in chromium salts and its ability to adapt to market demands, with a projected production of 260,000 tons of chromium salt in 2024 [6][31] - Baitian Co. is noted for its phosphate rock production capacity expansion, which is expected to enhance its market position [7][31] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing tight supply-demand situation for phosphate rock, with existing capacities facing delays and increasing demand from lithium iron phosphate battery projects [7] - The report also mentions the impact of recent chemical safety incidents on industry capacity and regulatory pressures, which may accelerate the phase-out of less compliant operations [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2025, which is anticipated to support upward consumer spending [16] - The report highlights the emergence of high-end domestic brands and the potential for increased penetration of advanced driving technologies [16] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Robotaxi initiative by Tesla, which is set to launch on June 22, 2025, as a significant development in the industry [14] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Multiple automotive companies have announced a "60-day payment term" commitment to suppliers, aiming to alleviate financial pressure [12] - The global first L3-level AI vehicle, the Xiaopeng G7, was officially unveiled with a pre-sale price of 235,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [13] - Tesla plans to initiate its Robotaxi pilot service in Austin, Texas, with the first deliveries expected on June 28, 2025 [14] Market Performance - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the A-share automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 0.8% [17] - The performance of individual segments showed a mixed trend, with passenger vehicles down by 2.0% and commercial vehicles up by 7.2% during the same period [17] Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential to benefit from the current market dynamics: 1. Domestic brands like Li Auto, JAC Motors, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors are expected to thrive in the high-end market segment [16] 2. Companies involved in advanced driving technologies, such as Xiaopeng Motors, Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot, are highlighted for their growth potential [16] 3. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in the supply chain, such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Beite Technology [16] 4. In the commercial vehicle sector, it anticipates a recovery in heavy truck demand, recommending companies like Foton Motor and China National Heavy Duty Truck [16]