Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Deleijia (603092), marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - Deleijia is the second-largest wind power gearbox supplier in China, with a market share of 10.4% globally and 16.2% domestically as of 2024. The company has established strong ties with key clients such as Goldwind Technology and SANY Heavy Energy, with over 90% of its revenue coming from its top five clients [5][14]. - The wind power gearbox industry is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased domestic demand and favorable policies. The company has seen a 65% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 630 million yuan [5][14]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including its leading profitability in the industry, with a gross margin of 25.4% and a net margin of 15.5% in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than its competitors [5][38]. Summary by Sections Company Overview and Market Positioning - Deleijia specializes in wind power gearboxes and has been operational since 2017. The company has expanded its production capacity to approximately 4,000 units, making it the second-largest supplier in China [5][15]. - The company went public on November 7, 2025, raising 1.87 billion yuan to fund the expansion of its production capacity by 1,800 units [17][19]. Supply and Demand Dynamics in the Wind Power Gearbox Industry - The domestic wind power demand is expected to surge, with a projected annual average of 140 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, leading to a significant increase in the gearbox market size, estimated at 28.6 billion yuan [5][50][70]. - The report notes that the market for wind power gearboxes is highly concentrated, with the top five suppliers holding a combined market share of 76.5% as of 2024 [71]. Competitive Advantages and Performance Elasticity - Deleijia's strong client relationships and its focus on cost reduction through economies of scale have resulted in superior profitability compared to other gearbox manufacturers [5][38]. - The company has maintained a high capacity utilization rate and has seen a significant increase in sales volume, with a 66.4% year-on-year revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [29][38]. Financial Projections and Investment Rating - The report forecasts that Deleijia's revenue will grow from 5.14 billion yuan in 2025 to 8.28 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to reach 1.39 billion yuan by 2027 [6][7]. - The company is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, supported by its market position and the expanding wind power sector [6][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - LiuGong is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the excavator and loader markets, with a strong focus on electrification and globalization [2][6] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 60 billion yuan by 2030, with international revenue accounting for over 60% and a net profit margin of no less than 8% [29] Summary by Sections Company Overview - LiuGong has been a leader in the loader market and has a strong presence in the excavator sector, with a history of over 67 years in the engineering machinery industry [14][15] - The company has expanded its product offerings and established a global presence, with subsidiaries in North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East [15] Market Performance - As of November 28, 2025, LiuGong's stock price is 11.95 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 24.29 billion yuan [4] - The company's performance over the past 12 months shows a 10.5% increase, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which declined by 3.5% [4] Product Analysis - LiuGong's main products include loaders and excavators, with a comprehensive product range that includes electric models and various specifications [18] - The domestic market share for loaders is expected to remain the highest in 2024, while the excavator market share is gradually increasing [18] Industry Trends - The excavator market is expected to enter a new cycle driven by domestic recovery factors, including policy stimulation and large-scale engineering projects [6] - The electric loader market in China is projected to grow rapidly, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 50.1% from 2023 to 2028 [6] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for LiuGong from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 345 billion, 403 billion, and 460 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 17%, and 14% respectively [8] - The projected net profit for the same period is expected to reach 17 billion, 23 billion, and 31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 31%, 35%, and 32% respectively [8] Strategic Initiatives - LiuGong's "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic goals to enhance its operational capabilities and product competitiveness, focusing on sustainable growth engines [29][32] - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan to motivate key personnel and align their interests with the company's long-term performance [30][31]

Group 1: Company Overview - The core online travel agency (OTA) maintains a steady growth momentum, with a notable performance in international business [4] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.5 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion yuan, up 17% year-over-year [3][4] - The company's hotel management business is expanding, with nearly 3,000 hotels currently operating and an additional 1,500 hotels in preparation [4] Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The transportation ticketing segment generated revenue of 2.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 9% year-over-year increase, driven by insights into user demand and a rich array of value-added products [4] - The accommodation booking segment saw revenue of 1.58 billion yuan, up 15% year-over-year, benefiting from an increase in high-quality hotel room nights and brand recognition in lower-tier cities [4] - The vacation business faced short-term revenue pressure due to safety issues in Southeast Asia, with Q3 2025 revenue declining by 8% to 900 million yuan [4] Group 3: User Metrics - The average monthly paying user count reached 47.7 million in Q3 2025, a 2.8% year-over-year increase, with a total of 253 million annual paying users, up 8.8% year-over-year [5] - Over 87% of registered users reside in non-first-tier cities, with more than 70% of new paying users in Q3 2025 coming from these areas, reinforcing the platform's position in the mass market [5] Group 4: Financial Projections and Investment Rating - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in lower-tier markets, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand and international business expansion [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion, 21.9 billion, and 24.5 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.7 billion yuan [5] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 60.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 28 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [5] Group 5: Alibaba Overview - Alibaba's revenue for FY2026 Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5% [14] - The traditional e-commerce segment showed steady growth, with revenue increasing by 16% to 132.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025 [15] - The cloud business experienced a 34% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching 39.8 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [17] Group 6: Financial Outlook for Alibaba - Revenue forecasts for FY2026-2028 are set at 1,041.8 billion, 1,160.5 billion, and 1,282.1 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 125.1 billion, 149.3 billion, and 184.5 billion yuan [18] - The target market capitalization for Alibaba in FY2027 is estimated at 3,345.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 175 yuan [18]

Core Insights - The report establishes a systematic investment framework for convertible bonds focusing on "when to buy" and "what to buy," addressing market volatility and optimizing risk-return ratios [4] - The framework aims to provide investors with a replicable and trackable path for convertible bond allocation, combining the defensive attributes of bonds with the growth potential of stocks [4] Timing Strategies - Two effective timing strategies are proposed: - Equity-Debt Spread Timing: This strategy quantifies the relationship between the return of the CSI 500 index and the yield of 10-year government bonds, providing objective thresholds for position adjustments. The backtest accuracy rate is 68.64%, making it suitable for capturing equity characteristics [5] - Sentiment Index Driven Timing: This strategy uses implied volatility from the options market as a sentiment gauge, achieving a timing success rate of 63.53% when combined with the Z-Score standardization method and 74.39% with the IV change threshold method [5] Selection Strategies - Five mainstream selection strategies are evaluated and improved to enhance portfolio return-risk ratios: - Dual Low Strategy: Balances stability and elasticity, achieving a cumulative return of 95.25% from 2019 to October 2025 [6] - Factor Triple Low Strategy: Introduces fundamental factors like stock Alpha to optimize selection criteria, yielding a cumulative return of 192.54% and an annualized return of 47.98% [6] - Momentum + Dual Low Strategy: Captures market sentiment's upward inertia, with a cumulative return of 65.53% and an annualized return of 15.89% [8] - Barbell Strategy: Combines equity and debt-oriented convertible bonds to balance offense and defense in varying market conditions [8] - High Price Low Premium Strategy: Demonstrates effectiveness in trending markets with a cumulative return of 205.53% and an annualized return of 36.63% [8] Convertible Bond Recommendations - The report provides a list of convertible bonds to focus on, categorized by various strategies, including balanced, equity-oriented, and those meeting the improved dual low criteria [9] Strategy Applicability and Market Conditions - The report details the performance characteristics and applicable market environments for each strategy, indicating that the equity-debt spread timing strategy may face significant drawdowns in extreme market volatility, while the dual low strategy shows stable performance across different equity market conditions [10] Future Allocation Outlook - Looking ahead, investors are advised to flexibly allocate between defensive convertible bonds and high-dividend growth-oriented convertible bonds to capture structural investment opportunities while controlling drawdowns [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (9988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in cloud business and steady progress in domestic e-commerce commercialization, while also noting ongoing investments in instant retail [9] - The company reported a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for FY2026Q2, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.1% [10][11] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 173 billion yuan, down 64% year-over-year [10][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - For FY2026Q2, Alibaba achieved a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 206 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year decline of 53% [10][11] - The company repurchased 17 million shares for a total of 253 million USD, with a remaining buyback capacity of 19.1 billion USD [10] Business Segments - **E-commerce**: The Chinese e-commerce group reported a revenue of 132.6 billion yuan, up 16% year-over-year, driven by a 10% increase in customer management revenue [12][32] - **Cloud Business**: The cloud segment saw a revenue increase of 34% to 39.8 billion yuan, with external cloud revenue growing by 29% [36] - **International Digital Commerce**: This segment achieved a revenue of 34.8 billion yuan, up 10% year-over-year, primarily due to improved operational efficiency [35] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are set at 1,041.8 billion yuan, 1,160.5 billion yuan, and 1,282.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 125.1 billion yuan, 149.3 billion yuan, and 184.5 billion yuan [9][37] - The target market capitalization for FY2027 is estimated at 3,345.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 175 yuan per share [9][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.5 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion RMB, up 17% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-over-year [4][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform achieved a revenue of 4.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 31.2% [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing was 2.2 billion RMB, up 9% year-over-year, driven by user demand insights and enriched value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.58 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, supported by an increase in high-quality hotel room nights and brand recognition in lower-tier cities [6]. - The vacation business faced a revenue decline of 8% year-over-year, totaling 900 million RMB, primarily due to security issues in Southeast Asia [6]. - The average monthly paying user count reached 47.7 million, a 2.8% increase year-over-year, with a total of 253 million annual paying users, up 8.8% year-over-year [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to benefit from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, and international business expansion. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion RMB, 21.9 billion RMB, and 24.5 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion RMB, 3.2 billion RMB, and 3.7 billion RMB [6][8]. - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 60.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 28 HKD per share, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in investment style, with the banking sector receiving increased capital inflows, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][3] - In the equity market, technology sector ETFs saw a significant net inflow of 755 billion yuan, with semiconductor, battery, and robotics themes being particularly favored [3] - The banking ETF recorded a net inflow of 58 billion yuan in October, marking a new monthly high for 2025, following a net inflow of 32 billion yuan in September [3] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing growth in bond ETFs, particularly in sci-tech bonds, corporate bonds, and government bonds, indicating strong investor interest [4] - The report notes a substantial increase in the buying of long-term government bonds by major banks, while insurance companies are also increasing their allocation to long-term bonds [4] - In the commodity market, there has been a shift in domestic investor preferences from gold stock ETFs to gold ETFs, with a notable net inflow of 337.82 billion yuan in October [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company, 万物新生 (RERE), reported Q3 2025 revenue of 5.149 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, reaching the high end of previous guidance [3][4] - The breakdown of revenue shows that 1P product revenue was 4.726 billion RMB, up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of second-hand consumer electronics [4] - The company expects Q4 2025 total revenue to be between 6.08 billion and 6.18 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.4% to 27.4% [3] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 20.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with 1P business gross margin at 13.4%, up 1.7 percentage points [5] - Non-GAAP operating profit was 140 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 2.7% [5] - GAAP net profit reached 91 million RMB, up 407.3% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 110 million RMB, a 22.3% increase [5] Group 3: Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its offline store presence, with a total of 2,195 stores by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of 558 stores year-on-year [4] - The 3P service revenue was 423 million RMB, up 11.6% year-on-year, driven by growth in multi-category recycling services [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of second-hand product acquisition channels and multi-category business growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [6] Group 4: Industry Insights - The bond market sentiment is currently divided, with seller sentiment rising and buyer sentiment declining, indicating a cautious market environment [7][9] - The macro liquidity remains loose, with significant improvements in equity fund issuance, while leverage funds have seen a slowdown [10] - The automotive sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with significant declines in stock prices for major players during the recent week [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved Q3 revenue of 5.149 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, reaching the high end of previous guidance [6] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 was 140 million RMB, up 34.9% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 110 million RMB, reflecting a 22.3% increase [6] - The company expects Q4 total revenue to be between 6.08 billion and 6.18 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.4% to 27.4% [6] Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue breakdown shows 1P product revenue at 4.726 billion RMB, up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of second-hand consumer electronics [8] - 3P service revenue reached 423 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, primarily from multi-category recycling services [8] - The number of traded devices in Q3 was 10.9 million, compared to 9.1 million in the same period last year [8] Business Structure and Profitability - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 20.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with 1P business gross margin at 13.4%, up 1.7 percentage points [8] - Operating expenses showed improvement, with fulfillment expenses at 437 million RMB and a fulfillment expense ratio of 8.5%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] - GAAP operating profit was 121 million RMB, a significant increase of 385.1% year-on-year, with a GAAP operating margin of 2.3% [8] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 20.96 billion, 26.35 billion, and 32.38 billion RMB, with growth rates of 28%, 26%, and 23% respectively [10] - Non-GAAP net profit projections for the same period are 473 million, 664 million, and 900 million RMB, with growth rates of 51%, 40%, and 35% respectively [10] - The report highlights the company's potential for growth through expanded channels for second-hand goods and multi-category business expansion [10]

Report Overview - The report is a bond research weekly report dated November 24, 2025, analyzing the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [1][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From November 18 - 24, the bond market seller sentiment rose while the buyer sentiment declined again, with the two diverging, and the seller view divergence index also rose to a relatively high level. Despite the optimistic factors brought by the calendar effect, market sentiment remains contradictory and institutional caution persists [5]. Section Summaries 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted index was 0.42, up 0.04 from November 11 - 17, and the proportion of market - bullish views increased. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bullish views: 2 are bullish, 7 are moderately bullish, 14 are neutral, and 1 is moderately bearish. 8% of institutions are bullish, citing factors such as economic fundamentals pressure, monetary policy easing expectations, seasonal patterns, and institutional scramble for allocation. 29% are moderately bullish, due to the deepening asset - shortage pattern, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, potential decline in risk appetite, and the year - end "calendar effect". 58% are neutral, as there is a tug - of - war between bullish and bearish factors, bond yields are in a range - bound oscillation, the market is in a "policy vacuum period", and the 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate within the regulatory - approved range. 4% are moderately bearish, believing that the main logic is the lack of incremental funds in the bond market, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may strengthen, and the bond market's easing environment is hard to sustain [6][13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted sentiment index was - 0.08, down from November 11 - 17. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bearish views: 2 are moderately bullish, 18 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 8% of institutions are moderately bullish, based on monetary policy easing expectations, recovery in allocation demand, and potential decline in risk appetite. 75% are neutral, due to policy uncertainty, the asset - shortage pattern, a capped - and - floored market, lack of a one - sided main line, and the market entering a wait - and - see period. 17% are bearish, believing that policies fall short of expectations, structural interest rate cuts hit liquidity expectations, and policy guidance may divert funds to the equity market [7][14].