证券研究报告 2025年08月24日 有色金属 铝行业周报：美联储降息预期强化，下游需求继续回升 最近一年走势 相关报告 -11% 2% 16% 30% 43% 57% 2024/08 2024/11 2025/02 2025/05 2025/08 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：下游铝加工开工率回升，静待库存拐点（推荐）*有色金属*王 璇，陈晨》——2025-08-17 《铝行业周报：美联储降息预期提升，淡季累库趋势延续（推荐）*有色金属* 王璇，陈晨》——2025-08-11 《铝行业周报：美国非农就业低于预期，国内淡季累库趋势延续（推荐）*有 色金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-08-04 沪深300表现 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 王璇(证券分析师) S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 8.2% | 25.0% | 51.3% | | 沪深300 | 6.3% | 11. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][14]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 138.8 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 204.4%. The adjusted net profit reached 47.1 billion yuan, up 362.8% year-over-year, indicating strong operational performance and cost control [6][7][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2025 was 138.8 billion yuan, with an expected full-year revenue exceeding 300 billion yuan. The adjusted net profit was 47.1 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 33.9%, an increase of 11.6 and 5.8 percentage points compared to H1 2024 and H2 2024 respectively. The gross margin was 70.3%, up 6.3 percentage points year-over-year [6][9][12]. - The company effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in sales expense ratio by 6.7 percentage points and management expense ratio by 4 percentage points year-over-year. The inventory turnover days improved from 102 days in 2024 to 83 days in H1 2025 [9][10]. Revenue Breakdown - Online sales growth outpaced offline, with online revenue increasing by 365% year-over-year, accounting for 39.6% of total revenue. Offline revenue grew by 159% year-over-year, making up 55.7% of total revenue [8][9]. - Domestic revenue reached 82.8 billion yuan, representing 59.7% of total revenue, with online domestic revenue growing by 212.2% year-over-year [9][10]. International Expansion - Overseas revenue surged by 440% year-over-year, accounting for 40.3% of total revenue. The Americas and Europe showed particularly strong growth, with year-over-year increases of 1142.3% and 729.2% respectively [11][12]. - The company plans to expand its store count to 200 by the end of the year, with significant growth in the Americas and Europe [11][12]. Product and IP Performance - The plush category has become the largest product category, with revenue from plush toys growing by 1276% year-over-year. The company has 13 IPs generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue [12][13]. - Membership growth has been robust, with a total of 59.12 million members by H1 2025, and a member repurchase rate of 50.8% [12][13]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 330.25 billion yuan, 452.39 billion yuan, and 566.76 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The adjusted net profit is expected to reach 115.48 billion yuan, 159.05 billion yuan, and 200.87 billion yuan for the same years [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Tuhu-W (09690) [1][7] Core Insights - The company has shown robust store expansion and a significant increase in transaction users, with the number of stores growing from 6,311 to 7,205 year-on-year, representing a 14.2% increase. Transaction users rose from 21.4 million to 26.5 million, a growth of 23.8% [5] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 7.877 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, while adjusted net profit was 410 million RMB, up 14.6% [5] - The gross margin slightly decreased from 25.9% to 25.2% due to lower margins in tires and automotive maintenance, but other income surged by 326.1% to 897 million RMB, primarily from increased government subsidies [5] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.960 billion, 17.621 billion, and 19.318 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 10% [6] - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 755 million, 939 million, and 1.215 billion RMB for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 21%, 24%, and 29% [6] - The adjusted P/E ratios are expected to be 20.8, 16.7, and 12.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid downstream demand growth. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term development. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials supports one generation of industries," highlighting the foundational nature of the new materials industry for other sectors [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. New Materials Industry Dynamics 1.1 Electronic Information Sector - On August 18, SEI reported that OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman plans to invest trillions of dollars in developing infrastructure for AI services, although specific funding sources are not yet confirmed [6][23]. 1.2 Aerospace Sector - On August 19, SEI reported that the Shenzhou 20 mission successfully completed its tasks with the assistance of the "Wukong AI" model, marking significant progress in intelligent applications in space [24]. 1.3 New Energy Sector - On August 20, a meeting was held by several government departments to regulate the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the importance of maintaining healthy competition and sustainable development [10]. 1.4 Biotechnology Sector - On August 22, a strategic partnership was formed in Vietnam to develop synthetic biological products, promoting sustainable agricultural practices [12]. 1.5 Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - On August 22, the Xinjiang Environmental Protection Department proposed measures to enhance hazardous waste management and reduce landfill disposal rates [14]. 2. Sector Data Tracking - The report includes various key data points and performance metrics for the sectors mentioned, indicating a comprehensive tracking of industry trends and company performances [19]. 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several key companies with their stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 to 2026, highlighting investment recommendations such as "Buy" and "Increase Holdings" for specific stocks [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth driven by its konjac product line, with a significant increase in sales and profitability in the first half of 2025 [6][8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix and channel strategy, which has led to improved gross margins and profitability [8][11] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 373 million yuan, up 16.70% year-on-year [6][8] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.403 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.54%, with a net profit of 195 million yuan, an increase of 21.75% year-on-year [6][8] Product and Channel Analysis - The konjac product line has become a key growth driver, with revenue from konjac products increasing by 155% to 790 million yuan in H1 2025 [8] - The company’s revenue from direct supermarkets, distribution, and other new channels reached 600 million yuan, 2.3 billion yuan, and 570 million yuan respectively, with significant growth in new channels [8] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 29.7%, with a slight decline from the previous year, but Q2 showed improvement due to better product mix and reduced low-efficiency SKUs [8][11] - The company has successfully reduced its sales and management expense ratios, contributing to improved profitability [8][11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the high demand for konjac products, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 of 6.315 billion, 7.744 billion, and 9.210 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19%, 23%, and 19% [10][11] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 812 million, 1.012 billion, and 1.222 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 27%, 25%, and 21% [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaopeng Motors (09868) [1] Core Views - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q2 2025 revenue of 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3%, with a Q2 gross margin of 17.3%, up 3.3 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [4][6] - The company’s gross margin reached a historical high, driven by the launch of high-priced models G6 and G9, while the sales proportion of the lower-priced Mona M03 decreased from 50% in Q1 2025 to 38% in Q2 2025 [6] - The Q3 delivery guidance is conservative, with expected deliveries between 113,000 and 118,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 142.8% to 153.6% [6] - The potential of Xiaopeng's extended-range vehicles is still to be fully realized, with the upcoming X9 model expected to alleviate range anxiety and enhance gross margins [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new P7 pricing and the performance of extended-range vehicles in shaping the company's growth trajectory [6] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 76.99 billion, 116.42 billion, and 142.15 billion yuan, respectively, with significant growth rates of 88.4%, 51.2%, and 22.1% [8] - The net profit forecast shows a turnaround from a loss of 1.61 billion yuan in 2025 to a profit of 3.95 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 222% [8] - The report anticipates a price-to-sales ratio of 1.6 for 2026, suggesting a market capitalization of approximately 200.4 billion HKD and a target share price of 106 HKD [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11][39] Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders saw a significant year-on-year increase in Q2 2025, driven by robust order growth in the gas turbine sector and ongoing projects in nuclear energy [6][7][11] - The company has secured over 2 billion yuan in new orders in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 35%, with total revenue reaching 1.384 billion yuan, up 9.11% year-on-year [6][11] - The company is well-positioned for sustained growth, with a strong order backlog and a favorable outlook for the two-machine industry chain [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 721 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.05% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.82%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 96 million yuan, up 56.75% year-on-year [7] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 188 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.91%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 3.98% [6][11] Order Growth and Industry Position - The company has established strategic partnerships with major players such as Siemens Energy and GE Aviation, securing a stable supply of components for gas turbines and expanding its product offerings in the aerospace sector [8][9] - In the nuclear energy sector, the company has signed multiple contracts for product supply, benefiting from government approvals for new nuclear power units [10] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.946 billion yuan, 3.610 billion yuan, and 4.441 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 405 million yuan, 531 million yuan, and 710 million yuan [11][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the downstream demand continues to recover, leading to an increase in the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first half of 2025 [2][7] - The company achieved operating revenue of 2.154 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.29%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 332 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.38% [5][7] - The report emphasizes the growth in revenue from electronic materials and new energy materials, with electronic materials revenue reaching 344 million yuan, up 23.65% year-on-year [7] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 332 million yuan, with a cash flow from operating activities of 333 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 116.11% [5][10] - For Q2 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.179 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.67% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.97% [6][10] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 39.56%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.12 percentage points but an increase of 2.78 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][10] Segment Performance - The electronic materials segment generated revenue of 344 million yuan, with a gross margin of 32.97%, down 2.61 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The catalyst materials segment reported revenue of 456 million yuan, with a gross margin of 41.80%, down 1.76 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The new energy materials segment saw revenue growth of 26.36%, reaching 217 million yuan, with a gross margin of 21.19% [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.724 billion yuan, 5.576 billion yuan, and 6.674 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 754 million yuan, 902 million yuan, and 1.085 billion yuan for the same years [12] - The report indicates that the company is continuously engaged in technology and product research and development, aiming to build a comprehensive new materials industry platform [11]

证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王思言 S0350524010001 wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 08 月 22 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： [Table_Title] 业绩同比高增，养殖成本持续优化 ——牧原股份（002714）2025 年中报点评报告 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/08/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 牧原股份 | 6.1% | 27.3% | 31.9% | | 沪深 300 | 5.0% | 9.5% | 29.1% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/08/21 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 50.21 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 35.02-51.76 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 274,285.68 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 191,329.93 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 546,277.00 ...

2025 年 08 月 22 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈云 S0350524070001 cheny17@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 高端材料快速放量，上半年业绩同比高增 ——圣泉集团（605589）2025 年半年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/08/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 圣泉集团 | -0.3% | 18.0% | 83.8% | | 沪深 300 | 5.0% | 9.5% | 29.1% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/08/21 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 31.53 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 17.20-33.98 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 26,687.05 | | 流通市值（百万） | | ...