2025 年 11 月 03 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 徐凝碧 S0350524110001 xunb@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 资产结构持续优化，净息差企稳 ——张家港行（002839）2025 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 张家港行 | 5.6% | 1.4% | 12.2% | | 沪深 300 | -0.0% | 13.9% | 19.3% | | 市场数据 | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 4.44 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 3.93-4.93 | | 总市值（百万） | 10,852.89 | | 流通市值（百万） | 10,842.85 | | 总股本（万股） | 244,434.50 | | 流通股本（万股） | 244,20 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 667 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 8.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49 million yuan, up 52% year-over-year [5]. - The company is exploring new growth areas through IP derivative products, particularly in the snack sector, leveraging popular IPs to enhance product offerings and market reach [6][5]. - The financial forecasts predict revenue growth from 2.78 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.54 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 152 million yuan to 304 million yuan over the same period [7][8]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 financial metrics include a gross margin of 18.50%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit margin of 7.36%, up 2.09 percentage points year-over-year [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.839 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4.59%, and a net profit of 125 million yuan, up 18.87% year-over-year [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically entering the 100 billion yuan cultural and creative snack market by launching a series of products based on popular IPs, aiming to create a new sales model that combines enjoyment and playfulness [6]. - The report highlights the company's dual-driven business structure of "stationery + cultural creativity," which is expected to unlock new growth opportunities [6]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.81, 21.13, and 16.86, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend as earnings are expected to grow [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The debt resolution process is deepening, and the exit of urban investment platforms is accelerating. As of October 30, 2025, 1993.409 billion yuan of special bonds for implicit debt replacement have been issued, and special new - added special bonds have exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, far exceeding the 877.776 billion yuan in 2024. More than 60% of financing platforms have exited by the end of June 2025 [5][12]. - In the short term, the capital vitality of urban investment is significantly affected by debt resolution, and there is no obvious change with the progress of platform exit. Urban investment bonds continue the net outflow trend and the scale is expanding, mainly due to the significant reduction in weak regions and low - rated entities [5][36]. - In the primary market, new bond issuance of urban investment entities is still blocked after exiting the platform, and the use of raised funds is mainly for debt replacement, with a quarterly proportion of over 70%. Both key and non - key provinces are affected by debt resolution, and the expansion willingness is low [5][26][36]. - In the secondary market, early redemption of urban investment bonds further affects the net supply. From Q1 - Q3 2025, the early redemption scale increased by 7.5 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2024, and the tender offer acquisition increased by 8.1 billion yuan. There are opportunities for early redemption games [6][26][36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Debt Resolution and Platform Exit Progress - As of October 30, 2025, 1993.409 billion yuan of special bonds for implicit debt replacement have been issued, and except for Henan Province, other regions have completed the issuance within the year. The remaining quota will be used in advance. The issuance of special new - added special bonds has exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, far exceeding 877.776 billion yuan in 2024. Non - key debt - resolution regions such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hebei, and Hunan have relatively large issuance amounts, and Guangdong, Yunnan, Hebei, and Jiangsu have significant year - on - year increases [5][12]. - By the end of June 2025, more than 60% of financing platforms have exited, indicating a relatively smooth exit process within the policy framework [5][12]. 3.2. Urban Investment Bond Financing Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the net outflow of urban investment bonds is 200.3 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 74.4 billion yuan. Shandong and Guangdong are the main net inflow regions, while Jiangsu, Hunan, Chongqing, and Guizhou have large net outflow scales [18]. - By administrative level, the net outflow is mainly concentrated in district - county and national - level park entities, and the net outflow scale is still expanding year - on - year. The municipal entities have changed from net inflow to net outflow, while the provincial entities have little change [19]. - By rating, the net outflow is mainly concentrated in AA and AA+ entities. The AA entities continue the large - scale net outflow in the same period of 2024, and the AA+ entities have changed from net inflow to net outflow [20]. 3.3. Reasons for the Increase in Net Outflow of Urban Investment Bonds - Primary market: New bond issuance of urban investment entities is still blocked after exiting the platform. The use of raised funds is mainly for debt replacement, with a quarterly proportion of over 70% and a slight increase compared with 2024. Most provinces, especially key provinces, mainly use bond issuance for debt replacement. Non - key provinces are also affected by debt resolution, and the expansion willingness is low [26]. - Secondary market: Early redemption of urban investment bonds further affects the net supply. From Q1 - Q3 2025, the early redemption scale increased by 7.5 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2024, and the tender offer acquisition increased by 8.1 billion yuan. The proportion of urban investment bonds redeemed at face value in Q1 - Q3 2025 is significantly lower than that in the same period of 2024, and there are opportunities for early redemption games [6][26][27]. 3.4. Summary - In the short term, the capital vitality of urban investment is significantly affected by debt resolution, and there is no obvious change with the progress of platform exit. Urban investment bonds continue the net outflow trend and the scale is expanding, mainly due to the significant reduction in weak regions and low - rated entities [36]. - In the primary market, new bond issuance is still blocked, and the use of raised funds is mainly for debt replacement. In the secondary market, early redemption affects the net supply, and there are opportunities for early redemption games [36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Insights - The company's main business is developing steadily, with continuous optimization of breeding costs. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.779 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.01% [2][5] - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 35.327 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.48%, and a net profit of 4.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.98% [2][5] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In the pig breeding business, the company sold 57.323 million pigs from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.0%. The company has reduced the breeding sow inventory to 3.305 million by the end of Q3 [5] - Despite a slight increase in feed prices, the company's breeding costs have been decreasing, reaching 11.6 yuan/kg in September, down 1.5 yuan/kg from January [5] - In the slaughtering and meat processing business, the company slaughtered 19.16 million pigs from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 140%, with a capacity utilization rate of 88% [5] Production and Cost Efficiency - The company achieved a weaning-to-market survival rate of 93% and an overall survival rate of around 87% by September 2025. The average daily weight gain for fattening pigs was approximately 880g, with a feed-to-meat ratio of 2.64 [5] - Over 80% of the company's output was below 12 yuan/kg, and about 25% was below 11 yuan/kg, with the best-performing lines achieving costs as low as 10.5 yuan/kg [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate operating revenues of 124.852 billion yuan, 126.801 billion yuan, and 139.943 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.701 billion yuan, 17.935 billion yuan, and 25.200 billion yuan [5][7] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are projected to be 16, 15, and 11 times for the respective years [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11][12] Core Insights - The company is focusing on expanding its IP derivative business and has shown a relatively stable performance despite short-term pressures on earnings [5][6][11] - The company has implemented an employee stock ownership plan, indicating long-term confidence in its growth strategy [7][11] - The company is actively addressing the decline in its infant and toddler business by enhancing market promotion efforts and expanding its global sales channels [8][11] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 689 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 2.42%, and a net profit of 14 million yuan, down 16.63% year-over-year [8] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 1.887 billion yuan, a decline of 6.16% year-over-year, with a net profit of 51 million yuan, down 29.05% year-over-year [8] - The company expects revenue and net profit to improve in the coming years, projecting revenues of 2.529 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.901 billion yuan in 2026 [11][12] Business Strategy - The company is enhancing its product lines with multiple IP toy products and is set to launch new high-end collectible items in Q4 2025 [8][11] - It is transitioning its traditional IP toy products into a long-term operation model centered around competitive entertainment, aiming to create a closed-loop operation system [8][11] - The company is also focusing on expanding its presence in the U.S. market and developing sales in Latin America, the Middle East, and Asia [8][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][18]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant revenue growth due to increased sales volume and the acquisition of subsidiaries, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 68.03% in the first three quarters of 2025 [8][11]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in the UHMWPE fiber sector and has made progress in developing robotic dexterous hand tendons, which are expected to enhance market influence and brand recognition [9][10]. - The acquisition of Supermassive has led to notable synergies, allowing the company to enter the aramid fiber market and enhance its competitive edge through diversified applications [11]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 719 million, a 68.03% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 93 million, a 14.15% increase year-on-year [6][8]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 236 million, a 36.20% increase year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 22.81% year-on-year to 27 million [7][8]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 30.61%, down 6.29 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.28%, down 6.46 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 967 million, 1.164 billion, and 1.282 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 161 million, 210 million, and 254 million [12][13]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 49% in 2025, 20% in 2026, and 10% in 2027, while net profit growth rates are projected at 24%, 30%, and 21% for the same years [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 7.83% and 8.32% year-on-year respectively for the first three quarters of 2025. In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit increased by 7.93% and 8.84% year-on-year, indicating robust growth momentum [5] - The growth in performance is driven by dual optimization of scale and revenue structure, with net interest income in Q3 increasing by 20.60% year-on-year, and non-interest income (fees and commissions) rising by 24.45% year-on-year, significantly higher than the first half of the year [5] - As of the end of Q3, total assets grew by 24.68% compared to the beginning of the year, with deposits and loans also showing strong growth of 20.22% and 17.87% respectively [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit growth of 7.83% and 8.32% year-on-year. In Q3, the growth rates were 7.93% and 8.84% respectively [5] - The company’s revenue structure improved significantly, with Q3 net interest income growth accelerating by 4.25 percentage points compared to H1 [5] Asset and Liability Management - Total assets increased by 24.68% year-to-date, with deposits and loans growing by 20.22% and 17.87% respectively [5] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.84%, with a slight increase in the proportion of loans under special attention to 1.28% [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 877.07 billion, 960.49 billion, and 1,022.63 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.53%, 9.51%, and 6.47% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 343.49 billion, 367.27 billion, and 388.51 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 7.87%, 6.92%, and 5.78% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanda Film [1][12][13] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with diverse business segments opening up growth opportunities [2][5] - The company has effectively controlled costs, leading to a significant improvement in profitability year-on-year [6][9] - The film content performance is strong, with a rich reserve of blockbuster films expected to be released soon [7][9] - The "Super Entertainment Space" strategy is gradually being implemented, enhancing cinema operational efficiency and reshaping growth logic [8][12] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.63%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 173 million yuan, an increase of 212.04% [5][9] - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 131 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3393.8% [5][9] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 26.60%, up 6.23 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 5.62%, up 3.96 percentage points year-on-year [9][12] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 9.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.61%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 708 million yuan, an increase of 319.92% [9][12] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.524 billion yuan, 15.480 billion yuan, and 16.651 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 862 million yuan, 1.215 billion yuan, and 1.484 billion yuan [11][12] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the film industry, with the company positioned as a leader in the domestic cinema investment sector [12][13]

[Table_Title] 2025Q3 盈利阶段性承压，探索智慧交通/无人 配送/机器人新领域 ——德赛西威（002920）2025 年三季报点评 2025 年 11 月 03 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈飞宇 S0350525060001 chenfy02@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 事件: 2025 年 10 月 27 日，德赛西威发布 2025Q3 季报。2025Q3 公司实现营 收约 76.92 亿元，同比+5.63%，环比-2.04%；归母净利润约 5.65 亿元， 同比-0.57%，环比-11.74%；扣非后归母净利润约 5.71 亿元，同比 -13.25%，环比-12.86%。 投资要点: | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 德赛西威 | -21.7% | 16.6% | -1.6% | | 沪深 300 | -0.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company achieved revenue of approximately 1.733 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.76%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 218 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.12% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached approximately 4.997 billion yuan, up 16.46% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was around 646 million yuan, an increase of 14.21% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's growth is driven by globalization and smart technology integration, with significant contributions from overseas revenue, which reached 1.753 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.69% [2][3] - The integration of smart technology into the company's operations has led to a substantial increase in revenue from high-value domain control systems, with a reported revenue of 425 million yuan, marking a dramatic growth of 2003.76% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of approximately 1.733 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.76%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 218 million yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.12% year-on-year. For the first three quarters, total revenue was approximately 4.997 billion yuan, up 16.46% year-on-year, and net profit was around 646 million yuan, an increase of 14.21% year-on-year [2][3] Business Development - The company has successfully integrated its smart technology business, increasing its stake in KEBODA Smart Technology from 20% to 80%. This integration is expected to enhance the company's product matrix towards high-value and high-barrier complex domain control systems [2][3] - The company plans to issue convertible bonds not exceeding 1.49 billion yuan to support the expansion of its smart technology automotive central computing platform and domain control capacity, as well as to enhance its R&D and information technology infrastructure [2][3] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 7.254 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 925 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20% [3][4]