Overview - The report highlights that the convertible bond market experienced significant growth in 2025, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 17.87%, driven primarily by price parity and valuation support [2][12] - The current environment presents challenges for convertible bonds, with overall cost-effectiveness declining and valuation at historical highs, leading to increased investment difficulty [2][12] Section 1: 2025 Convertible Bond Review - The convertible bond market saw a strong performance in early 2025 due to ample liquidity and moderate economic recovery, with price parity being the main driver [12] - The market faced a pullback in March-April due to negative CPI and external disturbances, but recovered from May to September as fundamental expectations improved [12] - The overall market for convertible bonds is now in a "deep water zone," with a significant decline in supply and an increase in the median price to 132 yuan, indicating a high premium environment [2][12][27] Section 2: 2026 Stock Market Outlook - The report anticipates a turning point in the stock market, with corporate earnings expected to recover and long-term capital inflows continuing to support the equity market [41][45] - The M1 money supply has shown a significant turning point since September 2024, indicating improved liquidity conditions that are expected to benefit the stock market [46][52] Section 3: 2026 Convertible Bond Outlook and Allocation Strategy - The report suggests a dynamic adjustment of positions in convertible bonds based on market cycles, emphasizing a focus on index-based allocations [2][56] - The strategy indicates that the best accumulation window for convertible bonds is during the latter half of a market downturn and the early half of an uptrend [2][56] - The report highlights the importance of sector rotation, suggesting that constructing an equal-weighted index can effectively capture rotation opportunities [2][67]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a bond research weekly report released on December 8, 2025, focusing on the views of bond market sellers and buyers on the current bond market configuration value [1] - It solves the core problems of the latest week's changes in the views and sentiments of bond market sellers and buyers [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - From December 2nd to December 8th, the sentiment of bond market sellers continued to decline, the degree of divergence continued to decrease, and the buyer sentiment index declined again. The recent weak bond market led to continued pressure on the sentiment side, and institutions were waiting for important December meetings and the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations [3] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Seller Market Sentiment - **Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index**: From December 2nd to December 8th, it continued to decline. The unweighted index was 0.08, a decrease of 0.32 compared to November 25th - December 1st. Most market views turned neutral. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 4 bullish, 21 neutral, and 1 bearish. 15% of institutions are bullish, believing that interest rates have reached the upper limit of the acceptable range, monetary policy is expected to be loose, and risk appetite may decline; 81% are neutral, thinking that the "weak recovery" of the economy restricts the upward movement of interest rates, there is still allocation demand under the asset shortage pattern, but the market is worried about the "good start" and rising inflation, and there is no clear single main line to drive interest rates to break through trendily; 4% are bearish, suggesting that there may be a lack of incremental funds in December, and in years similar to 2025, yields rose in December [4][11] 4.2 Buyer Market Sentiment - **Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index**: From December 2nd to December 8th, it declined again. The unweighted sentiment index was 0.08, lower than that of November 25th - December 1st. Currently, institutions generally still hold a neutral - to - bullish view, with 5 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish. 21% of institutions are bullish, believing that panic has been released, the market is in an oversold state, creating conditions for a technical rebound, and the fundamentals and policy environment have not changed fundamentally; 67% are neutral, thinking that the tug - of - war between long and short factors has led to bond yields oscillating within a range, with mainly structural opportunities; 12% are bearish, suggesting that the expectation of interest rate cuts has failed, the loose capital supply has limited support, yields are "more likely to rise than fall", and even if there is a technical rebound, it may be "weak" [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities for investment at the bottom of the market [3][4] - The poultry sector's fundamentals are expected to improve, with a focus on marginal changes in the cycle [4][5] - The animal health sector is closely monitoring the progress of African swine fever vaccine clinical trials, which could enhance the industry's competitive landscape [6][7] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly emerging and improving profitability [9][10] Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in November was 11.69 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/kg [15] - The number of breeding sows as of the end of October was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [15][16] - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with a focus on low-cost performance and dividend increases [16] Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broiler parent stock chicks was 41 yuan/set, down 6 yuan from the previous week [31] - The poultry sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with a recommendation for companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [32] Animal Health - The profitability of self-breeding pigs has been negative for over two months, impacting the animal health sector [40] - Companies like Bio-Pharmaceuticals and Keqian Bio are recommended due to their strong business layouts and customer resources [6][40] Planting Industry - The price of corn was 2229 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8% [45] - Companies with early reserves in genetically modified seeds are recommended, including Suqian Agricultural Development and Longping High-Tech [50] Feed Industry - The price of feed for fattening pigs was 3.32 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [51] - The feed industry is expected to see increased concentration, with recommendations for Haida Group and He Feng Stock [52] Pet Industry - The pet consumption market in urban China is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5% [58] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Stock, with a focus on the pet medical sector as well [59]

Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The report discusses the potential for an early spring market rally, suggesting that historical patterns indicate such rallies often occur ahead of schedule during bull markets [3][4] - Analysts believe that the current market environment, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, may catalyze an earlier-than-usual spring rally [4][5] - Growth sectors, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, are highlighted as key areas for investment as the market anticipates a shift towards growth styles [5] Group 2: Renewable Energy Sector - The report indicates a continuous improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium battery industry, with production levels expected to stabilize around historical highs [10][11] - The solar energy sector is experiencing a decline in prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, but supply-side reforms are expected to enhance market stability [6][7] - Wind energy projects are gaining momentum, with significant increases in domestic and international offshore wind turbine tenders, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the sector [7][8] Group 3: Aluminum Industry Insights - The aluminum market is experiencing upward price pressure due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including anticipated interest rate cuts and improved manufacturing PMI [16][17] - Domestic production of electrolytic aluminum is slightly increasing, but demand remains mixed, with some sectors showing signs of weakness as the market enters a seasonal slowdown [17][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates in the aluminum sector, as these factors will influence future pricing trends [18][19] Group 4: Coal Market Dynamics - The coal market is expected to see price increases in December, driven by seasonal demand and production adjustments, despite recent price declines [26][29] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the coal supply chain, including transportation issues and fluctuating demand from both power generation and industrial sectors [26][27] - Long-term trends suggest that coal prices may continue to rise due to structural factors such as rising operational costs and regulatory pressures [29][30] Group 5: Robotics Industry Developments - The report notes significant advancements in the robotics sector, with the U.S. government accelerating initiatives to promote industry growth [31][32] - Tesla's developments in humanoid robots are highlighted, indicating a focus on cost-effective production and potential market applications [32][33] - Various robotics companies are securing substantial funding to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach, indicating a vibrant investment landscape [34][35][37]

2025 年 12 月 07 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 曹操出行发布 [Table_Title] Robotaxi 战略目标，2025 年前 11 个月汽车以旧换新超 1120 万辆 ——汽车行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/12/05 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | -2.0% | -1.2% | 17.4% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | 2.8% | 16.9% | 相关报告 《汽车行业周报：阿维塔递交港股 IPO 申请，"蔚 小理"相继披露三季度财报（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》 ——2025-12-01 《汽车行业周报：广州车展开幕，小鹏 X9 增程版/ 享界 S9 新款上市，华为举办乾崑大会（推荐）* 汽车*戴畅》——2025-11-24 《汽车行业周报：10 月乘用车批发同比增 7.5%， 上汽智己 LS9 上市（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》—— 2025-11-18 年底多家车企发布购车 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the European offshore wind catalysis continues to strengthen, and the supply-demand pattern of lithium batteries is improving [1] - The overall performance of the power equipment sector shows positive changes and potential catalysts, maintaining an overall "Recommended" rating for the sector [7] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The power equipment sector has shown a performance of -5.4% over the last month, 10.2% over the last three months, and 33.1% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Key Events and Insights - In the photovoltaic sector, there is a continued decline in prices for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules, with a significant reduction in domestic polysilicon production by 15.9% month-on-month in November [4] - In the wind power sector, domestic offshore wind turbine bidding has reached 10.3GW, a 9% increase from the previous year, with significant developments in emerging markets [5] - The energy storage sector is seeing growth, with Trina Solar's energy storage shipments expected to exceed 5GWh in Q4, and a focus on overseas markets [5] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high prosperity, with production expected to remain at a historical high of around 220GWh in December [5] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the silicon material sector such as GCL-Poly and Tongwei, as well as battery technology firms like LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [4] - For wind power, companies like Dongfang Cable and Goldwind Technology are recommended due to their involvement in significant projects [5] - In the energy storage space, leading integrators and cell manufacturers such as Sungrow Power and CATL are highlighted as key players [5] - The lithium battery sector is advised to focus on leading companies like CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy, as the industry is moving towards a more rational growth phase [5]

研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 07 日 固定收益点评 [Table_Title] 定制债基知多少 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：债基持有人结构分析。 相关报告 《破局而立，波段致胜——2026 年利率债投资策 略*颜子琦，刘畅，洪子彦》——2025-12-03 《固定收益点评：理财整改倒计时，对债市影响几 何？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-11-29 《固定收益点评：年末"日历效应"，这次有何不 同？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-11-22 《固定收益点评：市场风格切换，固收+如何应对？ *颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-11-05 《固定收益点评：股债恒定 ETF 将至，债市迎来 新变量？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-10-29 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 债基以机构投资者为主。截至 2025 年 6 月末，债基的机构持仓比例 达 82.8%，若该比例保持不变，则截至 9 月末，机构投资者持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to an increase in aluminum prices [6][11] - Domestic aluminum supply is slightly increasing due to new projects, while demand is expected to weaken as the year-end approaches [7][11] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 5, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2900.5 per ton, up $35.5 from the previous week, and up $262.0 year-on-year [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥22,345.0 per ton, an increase of ¥735.0 week-on-week and ¥1,765.0 year-on-year [24] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥22,150.0 per ton, up ¥720.0 week-on-week and ¥1,740.0 year-on-year [24] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and 66,000 tons year-on-year [56] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [56] 3. Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 596,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants reached 3.365 million tons, with a weekly increase of 19,000 tons [34] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price ¥30.67, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.54, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price ¥14.07, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.00, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price ¥27.20, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.13, with a "Buy" rating [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price ¥11.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥0.84, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price ¥28.31, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.88, with a "Buy" rating [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has upward momentum in December, driven by seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [4][7] - The coal mining industry is characterized by high asset quality and strong cash flow among leading companies, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for coal prices [7] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of December 5, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 785 RMB/ton, a decrease of 31 RMB/ton week-on-week [14] - Production in the Sanxi region has seen a slight decrease in capacity utilization, down 0.61 percentage points [14][21] - Coastal and inland power plants have increased daily coal consumption by 7.3 and 35.3 thousand tons respectively [14][23] - The inventory of power plants in 25 provinces is 136.12 million tons, down 115 thousand tons year-on-year [14][34] 2. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate for coking coal mines has decreased by 0.17 percentage points to 84.5% [5][40] - The average crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port has increased, indicating stable import levels [5][44] - The price of main coking coal at ports is 1,630 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [5][41] 3. Coke - The production rate of independent coking plants has increased slightly to 72.66% [53][59] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased to approximately 30 RMB/ton, down 16 RMB/ton week-on-week [57] - The price of coke at Rizhao port is 1,630 RMB/ton, a decrease of 50 RMB/ton week-on-week [54] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with the small block price at 930 RMB/ton [69] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, all rated as "Buy" [9]

2025 年 12 月 06 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 如果春季躁动提前，哪些方向值得关注？ 最近一年走势 相关报告 《流动性周报 12 月第 1 期：ETF 资金净流出，宏 观流动性边际收敛*赵阳》——2025-12-01 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 《流动性周报 11 月第 1 期：基金发行端回暖，杠 杆资金有所放缓*赵阳》——2025-11-24 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 本篇报告主要讨论：1、每年 2 月是常规春季躁动区间，牛市年份是否会 提前？2、从市场环境上看，本轮的跨年春季行情有没有可能提前？3、 如果春季躁动提前，如何布局？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1、从历史的跨年行情上看，整体胜率最高的是 2 月份，即"春季躁 动"行情的常规时间区间。但如果去看过去几轮牛市中继的年份， 我们发现"春季躁动"行情往往会提前。 ...