2025 年 12 月 20 日 公司专题研究 公司研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 杨仁文 S0350521120001 yangrw@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 方博云 S0350521120002 fangby@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 肖江洁 S0350125050005 xiaojj@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/12/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 中文在线 | -12.1% | -12.6% | -14.0% | | 沪深 300 | -0.4% | 1.5% | 15.8% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/12/19 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 23.83 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 17.41-37.15 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万） | 17,360.16 | | 流通市值（百万） | 15,737.60 | | 总股本（万股） | 72,850.01 | | 流通股本（万股） | 66,04 ...

——电力设备行业周报 最近一年走势 | | | | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 王刚 S0350524020001 | | | | wangg06@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 李昂 S0350525030002 | | | | lia@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 吴亦辰 S0350125030017 | | | | wuyc@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 全球储能需求高增确定性再提升，谷歌 TPU 液 冷持续推进 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/12/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电力设备 | -5.4% | 4.3% | 33.9% | | 沪深 300 ...

2025 年 12 月 20 日 策略周报 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 《美国降息周期中的"第四种"交易模式——策略 专题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-08-14 《美元寻锚之路：去杠杆，减敞口，再平衡*胡国 鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-06-22 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、美国货币政策展望；2、日本货币政 策展望；3、海外流动性变化对美元资产、人民币资产和港股的影响。 核心结论: 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 袁野 S0350525030001 yuany03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《策略周报：近期海外市场关注的三个焦点问题* 赵阳，袁野》——2025-11-29 | 1、 | 美国货币政策展望 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1、 | 美国就业和通胀现状与展望 4 | | | 1.2、 | 美国 ...

2025 年 12 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李昂 S0350525030002 | | | lia@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 宁德时代生态企业投运全球首条人形机器人 PACK 产线，企业融资进度加速 ——人形机器人行业周报 本周重要事件与核心观点： 产业动态： 璇玑动力宣布完成近亿元天使轮融资。根据机器人前瞻公众号，12 月 17 日，璇玑动力宣布完成近亿元天使轮融资，本轮融资由御海资 本、兰璞创投与步长家办联合投资。本轮融资将重点用于行业级四 足机器人的量产及消费级产品的研发。其首款行业级四轮足机器人 将于今年 12 月启动交付，消费级产品计划于明年正式发布。 智谷天厨宣布完成数千万元 A 轮融资。根据机器人前瞻公众号，近 日，智谷天厨宣布完成数千万元 A 轮融资，投资方为 ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 216 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、宠物行业专题报告：复盘宠物行业渠道变革，品牌精细化运营进入新阶 段——系列研究之三--行业 PPT 报告 分析师：王思言 S0350524010001 分析师：程一胜 S0350521070001 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、深度复盘国内宠物行业二十年渠道变迁的底层逻辑；2、辨析线上流量存 量博弈与线下服务壁垒的差异化价值；3、探寻在流量成本高企的当下，品牌如何通过渠道精细化运营与策略 分层实现突围。 复盘二十年国内宠物市场渠道变迁，经历了由线下到线上、由经销到直销的转变，借助电商渠道红利期，国产 宠物品牌发展迅速。2003-2012 年，中国宠物行业处于线下为王、经销主导的初步发展期，市场格局由外资 品牌掌控，国产宠物品牌起步；2012-2018 年，以"淘天系"及"双十一"为代表的电商红利，成为重塑宠 物行业格局的核心驱动力。20 ...

Group 1 - The report identifies four macro clues for 2025: TACO trading, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut rhythm, AI commercialization, and China's export resilience [8] - It suggests that in 2026, the domestic GDP growth is expected to shift from external demand to investment driven by central finance, alongside a price recovery leading to a restocking cycle [8] - The report emphasizes that the main industry themes for 2026 will focus on "anti-involution" and "hard technology" sectors, highlighting coal, chemicals, construction materials, and power equipment as key areas for potential profit recovery [8] Group 2 - The asset allocation outlook for 2026 recommends a diversified approach, favoring equities and commodities over interest rate bonds, with an overweight on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] - The report notes that the current market is driven by institutional funds rather than retail investors, indicating a preference for sectors with high profitability and fundamental improvements [8] - It highlights that the active equity funds are heavily concentrated in the TMT sector, with over 40% of holdings, leaving room for "anti-involution" and domestic demand recovery sectors [8] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various asset classes in 2025, noting that precious metals and Asia-Pacific equities led the gains, while bonds showed lackluster performance [10][11] - It indicates that the dollar index weakened by approximately 8.3%, and the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased by about 3.01% [11] - The report also highlights that the VIX index experienced significant fluctuations due to trade policy uncertainties, impacting market sentiment and asset performance [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pet industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the evolution of the pet industry over the past two decades, highlighting the shift from offline to online channels and the transition from distribution to direct sales. The rise of e-commerce has significantly accelerated the growth of domestic pet brands [6][8] - Online channels have become the primary sales avenue for pet food, leveraging e-commerce platforms to rapidly scale and reach mainstream consumers. The emergence of content-driven e-commerce has further enhanced customer acquisition and conversion capabilities [6][42] - Offline channels remain crucial for building trust and providing service-oriented consumption experiences, with professional stores and veterinary clinics playing a key role in offering product experiences and consultations [6][42] - The report emphasizes the need for brands to shift from broad expansion to efficient, lifecycle-focused operations in response to rising customer acquisition costs and market saturation. The competitive landscape is becoming clearer, with leading brands gaining significant advantages over smaller competitors [6][42] Summary by Sections Channel Evolution - The pet industry has undergone significant channel changes, moving from a dealer-dominated offline model to a direct sales online model, driven by e-commerce growth since 2012. The current phase is characterized by content-driven marketing and multi-channel integration [6][8][9] Online Channel Dynamics - Online channels have solidified their position as the largest sales channel in the pet industry, with retail share increasing from 47.7% in 2020 to 59.0% in the first half of 2025. The dominance of major platforms like Taobao and the rapid growth of Douyin highlight the evolving landscape [6][47] - The report notes that online purchasing behavior is heavily influenced by the convenience of buying pet food and treats, while offline spending is concentrated on services like veterinary care and grooming [6][49] Offline Channel Insights - The offline channel structure is diverse, comprising specialized pet stores, supermarkets, veterinary clinics, and other service-oriented businesses. While retail sales are lower due to high costs, offline channels are essential for service delivery and building consumer trust [6][72] - Direct sales through physical stores enhance consumer trust and repeat purchases, while veterinary clinics serve as authoritative channels for brand credibility [6][77] Brand Building and Competitive Strategy - The report identifies efficiency improvement and brand building as core strategies for navigating high costs and market saturation. Brands must focus on establishing trust and enhancing brand recognition to achieve premium pricing in a competitive environment [6][90] - The report highlights the importance of private traffic and refined operations as brands adapt to the evolving market landscape, moving away from reliance on public advertising to building direct connections with consumers [6][117]

Group 1: Company Dynamics - The pre-sale of the "Yangtze River Xinglan" cruise has officially launched, marking the entry of the interstate cruise business into a performance realization phase. The first sailing is scheduled for April 18, 2026, with prices starting at 4,399 yuan per person for standard luxury rooms [3][4] - The cruise is designed as a high-end vacation vessel, measuring approximately 150 meters in length and 23 meters in width, with a total tonnage of 17,000 tons. It features 259 cabins and can accommodate up to 650 passengers, with energy savings of over 20% compared to similar-sized vessels [4] - The company plans to build a total of four interstate cruises, with the first expected to be operational by June 2026. Once all four are operational, the projected annual revenue is approximately 395 million yuan, with a net profit of around 100 million yuan [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The report discusses the historical evolution and global opportunities for Chinese securities firms venturing abroad. It highlights that the international business revenue of highly internationalized securities firms can reach about 25%, indicating significant growth potential for Chinese firms [6] - The favorable factors for securities firms expanding overseas include government policies encouraging international operations and increasing interest from foreign capital in Chinese assets, particularly in emerging markets like Southeast Asia [6] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Developments - The innovative dual-target GLP-1 receptor and GIP receptor agonist HDM1005 has shown promising results in weight management during its Phase II clinical trials in China, with significant weight loss observed across various dosage groups [8][9] - The safety profile of HDM1005 is favorable, with most adverse events being mild to moderate, and no serious adverse events related to the treatment were reported [10] - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 45.19 billion yuan, 47.72 billion yuan, and 50.36 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.91 billion yuan, 4.50 billion yuan, and 5.02 billion yuan [10] Group 4: Insurance Sector Analysis - The implementation of new insurance regulations is expected to reshape the behavior of insurance companies, with a focus on optimizing asset allocation and managing capital adequacy under the new "Solvency II" framework [11][12] - The report indicates that the demand for high-quality credit bonds is increasing, while the preference for lower-rated bonds is declining, suggesting a shift in investment strategies among insurance firms [15] - The overall premium income for insurance companies has shown a steady increase, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, although the growth rate is lower than in previous years [15] Group 5: Investment Strategies in AI - The report emphasizes the investment focus on AI applications, particularly in smart driving, AI hardware, and internet companies transitioning to AI, predicting a structural market upturn in 2026 [17] - The representative fund managed by Liu Yuanhai has consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index, demonstrating strong excess return capabilities and a high annual win rate [18]

- The report primarily focuses on analyzing the investment system and representative products of Liu Yuanhai from Dongwu Fund, providing research references for FOF investors[1][6] - Liu Yuanhai's investment system emphasizes industry trend-driven investment, closely tracking technological innovation and industry penetration changes, and mainly participating in the growth stage of industries[8] - The Dongwu Mobile Internet A fund (001323) is a flexible allocation fund focusing on the mobile internet theme, with significant long-term performance outperforming the CSI 300 Index[12][13] - The fund's performance attribution analysis using the Fama-French five-factor model shows that its returns are mainly derived from market factor exposure and significant alpha, while value and investment factors contribute negatively[34][37] - The fund maintains a high equity position and high stock concentration, reflecting the fund manager's confidence in core holdings[42][43] - The fund's heavy positions are mainly in the TMT sector, with significant contributions from leading stocks in sub-sectors, although this also brings certain volatility risks[47][52][53]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the successful progress of the dual-target GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist HDM1005, developed by the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, in a Phase II clinical trial for weight management in China [3][4] - The weight loss effects of HDM1005 are significant, with weight reductions of -7.47%, -9.73%, -13.31%, and -13.28% observed in different dosage groups compared to a placebo group [4] - The safety profile of HDM1005 is favorable, with most adverse events being mild to moderate, and no serious adverse events related to treatment reported [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 45.187 billion yuan, 47.721 billion yuan, and 50.358 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.906 billion yuan, 4.498 billion yuan, and 5.022 billion yuan [4][7] - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.68X, 15.35X, and 13.75X respectively [4][7] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic prescription drug enterprise with a rich product pipeline and strong brand capabilities [4]