业绩简评 盈利预测、估值和评级 预计公司 25~27 年营业收入分别为 51.4/56.4/62.2 亿元，同 比+4.4%/+9.7%/+10.3%；归母净利润分别为 5.5/6.5/7.4 亿 元，同比+55.4%/+19.0%/+12.6%，对应 15X/13X/11X PE， 维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 国内民商用消防行业出清不及预期；住宅更新节奏不及预期； 工业消防大客户突破不及预期；大股东股权质押的风险。 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 240415 240715 241015 250115 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 青鸟消防 沪深300 | 公司基本情况（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 2 023 | 2 024 | 2 025E | 2 026E | 2 027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4 ,972 | 4 ,923 | 5 ,142 | 5 ,640 | 6 ,220 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 815 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 177 million RMB, up 99.7% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 209 million RMB, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 50 million RMB, reflecting a 45.4% year-on-year growth [2]. - The mobile intelligent terminal visual solutions segment generated revenue of 675 million RMB in 2024, growing 16.2% year-on-year, while the smart driving and other IoT intelligent devices visual solutions segment saw revenue of 127 million RMB, up 71.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company has successfully penetrated the market with its Turbo Fusion technology across various smartphone models, including mid-range and low-end devices, and has launched the first domestic AI glasses [3][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 992 million RMB, 1.218 billion RMB, and 1.5 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.74%, 22.77%, and 23.15% respectively [5][10]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 220 million RMB, 270 million RMB, and 339 million RMB, with growth rates of 24.54%, 22.81%, and 25.62% respectively [5][10]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 79.24, 64.52, and 51.36 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][10].

业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 15 日，公司披露 2024 年报以及 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司实现营收 8.15 亿元，同比增长 21.6%；实现归母净利润 1.77 亿元，同比增长 99.7%。25 年一季度，公司实现营收 2.09 亿元，同比增长 13.8%；实现归母净利润 0.50 亿元，同比增长 45.4%。 经营分析 分业务来看，24 年公司移动智能终端视觉解决方案实现营收 6.75 亿元，同比增长 16.2%，智能驾驶及其他 IoT 智能设备视觉解决方 案实现营收 1.27 亿元，同比增长 71.2%。两部分业务毛利率分别 为 91.4%/84.5%，较上年同期变动+0.5pct/-1.5pct。伴随收入高 增，公司各项费用率显著降低，24 年销售/管理/研发费用率分别 为 16.3%/10.5%/48.8%，同比下降 1.3pct/3.0pct/5.3pct；25Q1 各项费用率分别同比下降 1.4pct/5.8pct/3.8pct。 公司移动智能终端业务受益于行业复苏和 Turbo Fusion 产品渗透 率提升。24 年全球智能手机出货量同比增长 4%；公司 Turbo Fu ...

摘要 根据 Wind 数据，折价成交个券中，"25 润金 02"债券估值价格偏离幅度较大。净价上涨成交个券中，"23 焦发 01" 估值价格偏离程度靠前。净价上涨成交二永债中，"23 华兴银行二级资本债 01"估值价格偏离幅度较大；净价上涨成 交商金债中，"23 北京农商"估值价格偏离幅度靠前。成交收益率高于 10%的个券中，地产债排名靠前。 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价成交跟踪 | | | | | 大幅折价个券成交跟踪 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 剩余期限 | 估值价格偏 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 估值收益率 | 前一日估值 | | | | 成交规模 | | 简 称 | (年) | 离(%) | （元） | 偏离(bp) | (%) | 收益率(%) | 隐含评级 | 主体评级 | 行 业 | （万元） | | 25润金02 | 4.92 | -0.27 | 100.30 | 5.85 | 2.08 | 2.03 | AAA- | A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant profit growth in the coming years [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 22.28 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with a net profit of 1.05 billion RMB, up 17.5% year-on-year [2]. - The company is a leader in the first equipment sector, with a strong market presence in both domestic and international markets, benefiting from accelerated domestic grid expansion and increased overseas investments [5]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.58 billion RMB, 2.02 billion RMB, and 2.49 billion RMB in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 50%, 28%, and 23% [5]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 92.2 billion RMB from transformers, a 17.8% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin of 14.4%, up 5.9 percentage points [4]. - The switch segment generated revenue of 85.0 billion RMB, an 11.0% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.5%, up 1.3 percentage points [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 3.5 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 176.6% [4]. Market Position and Growth - The company holds a leading position in the domestic market, with a 9.3% share in the State Grid's power transmission and transformation projects and a 20.4% share in ultra-high voltage projects [3]. - The company has expanded its international business, signing contracts in countries such as Turkey, Italy, and Sweden, with equipment exports now accounting for over 50% of its international business [3]. - The company’s revenue from the capacitor and lightning arrester segment reached 980 million RMB in 2024, a 22.6% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.2% [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 25.52 billion RMB, 30.25 billion RMB, and 33.52 billion RMB in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14.56%, 18.53%, and 10.80% [9]. - The diluted earnings per share are expected to increase from 0.206 RMB in 2024 to 0.485 RMB in 2027 [9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 4.79% in 2024 to 9.68% in 2027 [9].

前期报告提要与市场聚焦 前期观点回顾：美国滞胀风险升温，权益市场"波动率"上升。美国"对等关税"幅度和力度均远超市场预期。特 朗普 2.0 关税政策将大概率加速美国"硬着陆"甚至"滞胀"。国内基本面"退坡"正在逐步演绎，叠加海外风险攀 升，将可能导致居民、企业资产负债表再次面临走弱风险。我们维持市场"波动率"或趋于上行的观点，中小盘成 长风格将"切换"至大盘价值防御，持续周期至少在 1 季度，直至"盈利底"迹象出现。 当下市场聚焦：1、中美之间互加关税，对于权益市场如何影响？如何看待后续 A 股表现？2、美债利率大幅飙升， 是否会导致市场波动率上升？3、外需受关税冲击，如何筛选内需消费机会？4、新消费与传统消费如何进行选择？ 全球关税战推升美国滞胀风险，全球权益市场"波动率"将明显上升 全球关税战升级，权益市场维持"高波动"状态。4 月 2 日美国"对等关税"发布后，中美之间关税战持续升级，截 止目前，美国对中国产品征收的额外关税已达 145%，而中国对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税税率也已经提高至 125%。欧盟也宣布了对美国的关税反制措施。参考关税 1.0 的经验，本轮特朗普 2.0 关税政策将大概率加速美 ...

行业动态 （1）近日，韩国"K-人形机器人联盟"正式成立，该联盟集结了四十多家产学研机构，总投入或将超过 1 万亿韩元 （约 51.2 亿人民币）。 公司动态 （1）4 月 15 日，因克斯推出全球尺寸最小的 20 自由度灵巧手 EC-DexHand-5F，突破了体积-自由度-性能的"不可能 三角"，其技术获得 Pi 团队高度关注； （2）近日，由越疆机器人参与牵头制定的国家标准《工业机器人 动态稳定性试验方法》正式发布，成为国际首个测 试工业机器人动态稳定性的方法标准； （3）近日，云鲸智能已完成由腾讯投资、北京机器人产业发展投资基金联合领投，科幻基金与明势创投跟投的 1 亿 美金融资，并正式启动 Pre-IPO 轮融资。 核心指标 4 月 14 日机器人板块持续反弹，无框电机、丝杠板块增幅靠前： 板块涨幅前三：无框电机（+3.32%）>丝杠（+2.34%）>设备（+1.98%）。 个股涨幅前三：步科股份（+7.36%）>福达股份（+6.27%）>蓝黛科技（+6.21%）。 投资建议 扫码获取更多服务 行业点评 行业动态 持续推荐高确定性和基本面扎实的公司。前期市场已调整较多，市场多家公司已经具备较高性价比 ...

2025/4/14 1 具身智能是汽车板块最强产业趋势。具身智能是AI最强应用，而智驾和人形机器人则是具身智能最重要两个方向。在电动化之后，智驾和人形 机器人为代表的具身智能赛道将重塑整个汽车产业链，成为汽车板块最强产业趋势。 智能驾驶：高阶智驾1-N，robotaxi 0-1，供应链芯片、激光雷达和清洗等增量赛道迎爆发式增长，整车格局迎变局。 1、高阶智驾：爆发式增长即将到来，整车赛道将加速出清。渗透率：智能驾驶25年开始正式步入爆发式增长阶段，预计25年达到15%+， YOY+200%，预计未来2-3年渗透率突破70%。格局：高阶智驾是整车环节格局变化的核心技术驱动因子。从商业模式看，Tier0.5模式在数据获 取、迭代能力和客户响应速度上劣于全栈自研，全栈自研模式领先优势有望扩大；20-40万价格带是目前整车环节格局最模糊的细分市场，该价 格带消费者对高阶智驾需求最敏感，高阶智驾将加速20-40万市场出清。 2、Robotaxi：0-1拐点出现，自运营叠加金三角的部署模式有望领先。Robotaxi是整车赛道格局变化的另外一个核心驱动因子，随着政策+技术+ 运营多重发力，2025年成本有望与网约车成本持平 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 19.6, based on a 14x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The smart driving SoC chip market is expected to reach a trillion scale, with domestic chip manufacturers emerging prominently. The market penetration for L2 and above passenger vehicles is projected to exceed 12 million units in 2024, with a penetration rate of 55.8%, and is expected to reach 93.5% in China by 2028 [1][42]. - The company is positioned with a dual-line layout of high-performance SoC and cross-domain SoC, focusing on both smart driving and robotics applications [1][16]. - The company has developed proprietary automotive-grade IP cores, enhancing technical flexibility and reducing costs associated with external suppliers [2]. Company Overview - The company is a leading supplier of automotive-grade smart driving chips, benefiting from the smart driving chip wave. It was established in 2016 and is set to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 8, 2024, with an issue price of HKD 28 [13]. - The business structure includes high-performance SoC and cross-domain SoC, with the Huashan and Wudang series chips catering to L2 to L4 level smart driving and cross-domain computing needs [16][17]. Financial Analysis - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 8.86 billion, RMB 14.84 billion, and RMB 21.78 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a significant increase in revenue driven by the smart driving solutions [3][27]. - The revenue growth rate is expected to be 88.82% in 2023, 51.81% in 2024, and 86.76% in 2025, indicating a strong upward trend [7]. - The gross margin for smart driving solutions is projected to improve significantly, reaching 37.4% in 2024, up from 21.4% in 2023 [33]. Industry Insights - The smart driving SoC and humanoid robot markets are projected to reach a trillion scale, with domestic manufacturers gaining traction [1][51]. - The penetration rate of smart driving in China is expected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.8% from 2019 to 2023, outpacing the global growth rate of 28.5% [42][45]. - The ADAS technology is becoming standard in smart vehicles, with the SoC market expected to expand significantly as L2+ and higher-level smart driving technologies become more prevalent [49][50].

Company Overview - The report rates the company as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.6, based on a 14x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for 2025 [3] - The company is a leading supplier of automotive-grade intelligent driving chips, benefiting from the wave of intelligent driving chip demand [13][27] - The company has launched the Huashan series (high-performance SoC) and the Wudang series (cross-domain SoC) to meet the needs of L2 to L4 level intelligent driving and cross-domain computing [16][19] Core Insights - The intelligent driving SoC chip market is expected to reach a trillion scale, with domestic chip manufacturers emerging [1] - The penetration rate of L2 and above passenger cars in China is projected to exceed 12 million units in 2024, with a penetration rate of 55.8%, and is expected to reach 93.5% by 2028 [1][42] - The company has developed self-researched automotive-grade IP cores, enhancing technical flexibility and reducing costs associated with external suppliers [2] Financial Performance - The company is set to go public on August 8, 2024, with an issuance price of HKD 28 and total fundraising of HKD 1.036 billion [3] - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 312 million in 2023 to RMB 2.178 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 86.76% from 2025 to 2026 [7][27] - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 313 million in 2024, recovering from a loss of RMB 4.855 billion in 2023 [7][38] Industry Insights - The intelligent driving market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.8% in China from 2019 to 2023, outpacing the global growth rate of 28.5% [42] - The ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) technology is becoming standard in intelligent vehicles, driving the expansion of the SoC market [49] - The domestic chip manufacturers are accelerating their rise against foreign competitors, with significant market share expected by 2028 [55][60]