本周行情综述 铜：供应端：本周进口铜精矿加工费跌至-30.89 美元/吨。据 SMM，周末铜价上涨带动持货商出货，截至周四，全国 主流地区铜库存连续六周下降，较年内高位回落 10.5 万吨，同比下降 13.8 万吨。冶炼端：据 SMM，卫星数据显示， 3 月全球铜冶炼活动降至今年最低，平均有 12.6%处于不活跃状态，高于 2 月份的 8.8%。消费端：据 SMM，本周铜线 缆企业开工率达 84.67%，环比、同比均增长。铜价波动刺激了积压需求释放，企业新订单增加，周末铜价上涨导致成 交转弱，部分客户仍观望。 铝：供应端，据 SMM 统计，国内铝棒两地库存方面，广东铝棒库存 13.61 万吨，无锡铝棒库存 3.72 万吨，合计 17.33 万吨，共计环比减少 0.45 万吨。成本端，据 SMM, 4 月 11 日佛山铝棒市场报 360/410，涨 60；无锡市场加工费报 400/450，涨 50；南昌地区加工费报 380/430，涨 30。SMM 预计后续加工费仍以偏弱运行为主。消费端，华峰铝业新 能源汽车用高端铝板带箔智能化建设项目近日正式开工，该项目规划建设年产 45 万吨生产线，主要用于新能源汽车、 燃 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the silicon anode sector, particularly in the context of the increasing adoption of silicon anodes and the new processes that bring additional investment opportunities in the supply chain [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - The emergence of CVD silicon-carbon technology significantly accelerates the industrialization of silicon anodes, with expectations for increased penetration in mobile devices by 2025 and potential breakthroughs in power applications [2]. - The CVD method is becoming the mainstream process, replacing traditional ball milling methods, and reshaping the competitive landscape in the silicon anode market [2][24]. - The report highlights the cost reduction potential in the silicon anode production process, with expectations for prices to converge towards those of graphite anodes in the medium term [3][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Silicon Anodes: Current Applications and Future Potential - CVD silicon-carbon technology is accelerating the industrialization of silicon anodes, with significant improvements in performance metrics such as capacity and cycle life [2][24]. - The transition from ball milling to CVD allows for precise control of silicon particle size and uniform coating, enhancing the overall performance of silicon anodes [24][26]. - The report anticipates a market demand for silicon anodes to reach 45,000 tons globally by 2028, with significant contributions from mobile devices, electric vehicles, and solid-state batteries [4][38]. 2. Industry Chain: Development and Expansion - The report identifies a dual-path development for porous carbon materials, with both resin and biomass routes expected to play significant roles in the market [5]. - The silicon gas market is projected to expand significantly, with demand expected to reach 19,000 tons by 2028, driven by the growth of silicon-based anodes [5]. - New applications for binders and conductive agents, such as PAA and CNT, are opening up additional market opportunities [5]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies leading in the silicon anode space, including those involved in upstream materials like porous carbon and silicon gas [6]. - Key players highlighted include Purtai, Better Ray, Yuanli Co., and Shengquan Group, each with distinct advantages in their respective segments [6][30].

可转债周报 固定收益组 分析师：尹睿哲（执业 S1130525030009） yinruizhe＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：李玲（执业 S1130525030012） liling3＠gjzq.com.cn 回归权益，挖掘结构性机会 2025 年 04 月 14 日 核心观点 回归权益，挖掘结构性机会。上周在中美双方关税政策的反复冲击下，市场出现较大波动、呈现"V"型走势，周一转 债出现"双杀"行情、估值跌落至年内低点，而在后面三个交易日又快速进入"双击"行情、将估值拉升至年内高点， 周五虽然有所回落、但幅度仍然较小，经过上周的波动转债整体估值俨然来到年内次高点，但呈现一定分化，偏债品 种对前期"下修预期"的泡沫进行了充分挤出、估值处于年内中枢位置，尤其是大盘光伏转债、弱反弹后价格逐步走 低，临近年报季节、紧跟评级期，市场规避情绪明显；但弹性代表 TMT&汽车&消费等行业估值则逼近甚至超过年内高 点。就转债自身而言，近期呈现出以下特征：1）全市场估值水平再次回到历史中性偏高位置；2）以光伏大盘转债为 代表的部分偏债品种估值进一步走低。当前时点，短期两大负面因素评级调增与年报超预期风险仍未充分释放，估值 ...

摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数中，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 1000、中证 500 指数均下跌。其中，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 指数的涨跌幅分别为-1.6%、-2.87%、-4.52%和-5.5%。 过去一周，中国公布了 3 月的通胀数据以及金融数据。内需下游通胀情况有所改善，3 月 CPI 同比数据报-0.1%,较上 个月上行 0.6%。而上游通胀，受海外经济预期扰动，继续低位徘徊，3 月 PPI 同比报-2.5%，较上个月下行 0.3%。而 信贷水平方面，3 月社融存量同比在政策债券细项支持下，继续上行，报 8.4%，较上个月上行 0.2%；3 月 M1 同比也 继续上行，报 1.6%，较上个月上行 1.5%。国内整体通胀和信贷情况维持良性运行。而过去一周更多的扰动主要来源 于美国总统前期宣布的"对等关税"政策，市场处于对于今后国内出口增速的影响，市场出现了惶恐性下行。不过我 们能看到在本次市场波动中，政府快速响应，一方面"国家队"迅速进场维稳，中央汇金宣布增持 ETF 以及央行发声 表明必要时为中央汇金提供充足再贷款；另一方面，上调保险资金权益资产配置比例上限，提 ...

证券板块 政策层面形成"类平准基金机制+增持回购再贷款"工具组合拳，证券行业资本运作进入自我价值重估新阶段。上市 券商密集启动市场化回购：1）国泰海通发布公告称拟回购资金不低于人民币 10 亿元，不超过人民币 20 亿元；2）东 方证券公告筹划回购 2.5-5 亿元；3）国金证券拟回购资金总额不低于人民币 5,000 万元（含），不超过人民币 1 亿元 （含）；4）财通证券董事长提议回购股份金额为 1.5 亿元-3 亿元；5）中泰证券董事长提议回购资金为 3 亿元-5 亿元。 投资建议：多家公司发布业绩预增公告，在市场交投延续活跃以及低基数效应影响下，券商 25Q1 经纪、自营业务向 好驱动业绩表现同比大幅提升。券商和多元板块建议关注四条主线：（1）四川双马：科技赛道占优+退出渠道改善，业 绩弹性可期。公司管理基金的已投项目——奕斯伟（半导体材料，2024/12/24 状态更新为已问询）、邦德激光（高端 装备，2024/1/3 进行上市辅导备案）、屹唐半导体（2025/3/13 证监会批复注册）、群核科技（"杭州六小龙"之一， 2025/2/14 向港交所递交上市申请）、丽豪半导体（公司称拟最快 2025 年 ...

业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 11 日，公司发布 24 年年报及 25 年一季报，24 全年实现营收 54.42 亿元，同比增长 12.41%；实现归母净利 润 5.04 亿元，同比下降 10.52%。24Q4 实现营收 14.79 亿 元，同比增长 11.05%；实现归母净利润 1.29 亿元，同比下 降 20.03%。25Q1 实现营收 13.80 亿元，同比增长 11.59%； 实现归母净利润 1.38 亿元，同比增长 10.42%。 业绩简评 盈利预测、估值与评级 预计公司 25~27 年营业收入为 67.9/81.5/96.2 亿元，同比增 长 24.8%/20.1%/18.0%；归母净利润为 7.0/8.7/10.9 亿元， 同比增长 39.0%/24.1%/25.4%，对应 41/33/26X PE，维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示 SHC 国内增长趋缓拖累云平台收入增长的风险；清洁机器人 销售进展不及预期的风险；行业竞争加剧影响利润率的风险。 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 24.00 28.00 32.00 36.00 40.00 44 ...

OLED材料：OLED终端材料是OLED面板发光的物质基础与核心要素，也是产业链中技术壁垒最高的环节之一。 智能手机是 OLED 面板下游主要的应用领域之一，OLED 屏幕的多样化创新与渠道下沉策略，持续拉动面板需 求增长。群智咨询数据显示，2024 年全球 OLED 面板在手机端渗透率约 56%，预计 2025 年将达到近 60%。与 传统显示器相比，OLED 具备轻薄、省电、高对比度及画面色彩还原、响应速度快等突出特性，在以平板、 笔电为代表的 IT 产品和车载显示等中尺寸产品市场正在加速渗透。 电子树脂：由于 5G 通信以及人工智能等技术的快速发展，数据中心、云计算的相关需求也快速增长，数据 传输带宽及容量呈现几何级数增加，其对各类电子产品的信号传输速率和传输损耗的要求都显著提高，由此 带动了高频高速覆铜板需求的持续提升，进而拉动 PPO、特种环氧树脂等高性能电子树脂的需求。 电子特气：电子特种气体是集成电路、显示面板等行业必需的支撑性材料，广泛应用于光刻、刻蚀、成膜、 清洗、掺杂、沉积等工艺环节，对于纯度、稳定性、包装容器等具有较高的要求。根据中商产业研究院数据 与预测，2019-2024 年全球电子 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors benefiting from import substitution, such as lubricant additives and nucleating agents, while also monitoring oil price stabilization for potential investment opportunities in oil-related assets [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The chemical market is experiencing pressure from trade conflicts, but the current market is more mature compared to 2018, with swift actions from the Chinese version of the stabilizing fund helping to restore market confidence [1][2]. - The report highlights significant downward pressure on industries with high exposure to the US market, particularly in consumer electronics and textiles, while sectors like lubricant additives and aramid fibers show strong performance due to import substitution [1][2]. - Key events include a notable drop in oil prices, with Brent crude falling below $60 per barrel, and the announcement of an expansion project by Wanhua Chemical [1][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - Brent crude futures averaged $64.12 per barrel this week, down 10.92% from the previous week, while WTI futures averaged $60.84 per barrel, down 11.4% [10]. - The basic chemical sector underperformed the index, with a decline of 5.14% [10]. Key Events - The establishment of a Chinese version of the stabilizing fund aims to bolster market confidence amid escalating trade tensions [2]. - The report notes a significant drop in oil prices due to trade war impacts and OPEC+ production increases, with Brent crude falling below $60 [2]. Industry Specific Insights - The tire industry is experiencing a slight decline in operating rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 66.2% and semi-steel tire rates at 78.5% [25]. - The sweetener market, particularly for sucralose, is expected to see price improvements due to reduced low-priced inventory and upcoming production cuts [26][27]. - The dye market remains stable, with disperse dyes maintaining prices around 16.5 yuan/kg, while demand from downstream textile markets is weak [28]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the average price for titanium dioxide is stable, with a market average of 15,109 yuan/ton, while the industry is observing a slight decline in operating rates [29]. - The pure MDI market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices averaging 17,350 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand and ongoing trade tensions [32].

核心观点： 智能驾驶： 地平线与大众汽车集团开启高阶智驾合作新征程。地平线与大众汽车集团正式宣布，在高阶领域基于地平线全场景智 能驾驶方案 HSD (Horizon SuperDrive) 展开进一步合作。HSD 将作为大众汽车集团"在中国、为中国"战略下智能 驾驶研发的重要技术支撑，通过 CARIAD 与地平线的合资公司酷睿程 (CARIZON) 加速研发，并落地在大众汽车集团旗 下的车型上。此次在高阶领域的合作加深，将进一步推动大众汽车集团智能驾驶的开发进程，全面助力其在华智能化 转型。 禾赛科技与零跑汽车深化合作，正式官宣 20 万台激光雷达订单。后续零跑预计将采购约 20 万台的禾赛 ATX 激光雷 达，覆盖零跑 2025 年起多款量产车型。作为零跑汽车的独家激光雷达供应商，禾赛将为其提供先进的感知技术支持， 此次合作标志着双方在智能驾驶领域的战略合作迈入全新阶段。 机器人： 李强主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会，智元机器人创始人彭志辉参加并作为企业家代表进行发言。4 月 9 日下 午，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会，听取对当前经济形势和下一步经 济工作的意见建 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The real estate sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has experienced declines, with A-share real estate down by 1.5% and Hong Kong real estate down by 4.6% during the week of April 5-11 [2] - The average premium rate for land transactions remains high at 11%, despite a significant week-on-week decline in land transaction volume by 51% [2][29] - New housing transactions have decreased due to holiday effects and the pace of new launches, with a week-on-week decline of 35% across 47 cities [3][34] - The second-hand housing market shows resilience with a week-on-week increase of 9% in transactions across 22 cities [3][42] - The necessity for real estate stimulus has increased due to tariff impacts, with the potential for policy measures to be introduced in late April [4][13] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector ranked 6th among all sectors with a decline of 1.5%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector ranked 5th with a decline of 4.6% [2][18] - The property service index in Hong Kong fell by 2.5%, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the CSI 300 Index by 4.9% and 0.4%, respectively [23] Land Transactions - In the week of April 5-11, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 276 million square meters, reflecting a 51% decrease week-on-week and a 43% decrease year-on-year [2][29] - Cumulatively, from the beginning of 2025, the total area of residential land sold reached 9,554 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 1% [29] New Housing Transactions - New housing sales across 47 cities totaled 283 million square meters, with a week-on-week decline of 35% and a year-on-year decline of 6% [3][34] - First-tier cities saw a week-on-week decline of 39% in new housing transactions [34] Second-hand Housing Transactions - Second-hand housing transactions across 22 cities totaled 272 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 23% [42] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year increase of 30% in second-hand housing transactions [42] Policy and Stimulus - The report highlights the need for stimulus measures in the real estate sector due to increased tariffs, with potential policy implementations expected following the political bureau meeting at the end of April [4][13] - Various cities are conducting research and preparing policies to stabilize the real estate market [14] Market Dynamics - The average absorption rate for new projects in March reached 45%, with significant increases in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [5][15] - Strong product quality is identified as a key factor driving market interest, particularly in core urban areas [5][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product offerings and land acquisition capabilities, particularly in first-tier and core second-tier cities [6] - Recommended companies include Binjiang Group, China Overseas Development, and Jianfa International Group, along with their respective property management firms [6]