行情回顾： ◼ 本周（4.7-4.11）上证综指下跌 3.11%，创业板指下跌 6.73%。公用事业板块下跌 2.18%，煤炭板块下跌 4.27%, 碳中和板块下跌 4.62%，环保板块下跌 4.61%。 每周专题： 行业要闻： 投资建议： ◼ 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好地区的火电企业，如皖能电力、 华电国际。水电板块：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。核电板块：建议关注核电龙头企业中国核电。新能源 板块：建议关注新能源运营商龙头龙源电力（H）。 风险提示： 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 国资委表态大力支持增持回购，电力企业积极响应展现国资担当。4 月 8 日，将全力支持推动中央企业及其控股 上市公司主动作为，不断加大增持回购力度，切实维护全体股东权益，持续巩固市场对上市公司的信心，努力提 升公司价值，充分彰显央企责任担当。电力行业中央国资背景企业众多，截至 4 月 11 日，公用事业板块已有 12 家上市公司公告增持回购计划。另有 2 家公告控股股东提议 2024 年度分红方案。 ◼ 市场波动率上升，建议关注电力板块配置价值。公用事业板块行情，长期看估值以基本 ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/04/7-2025/04/11）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数下跌 6.78%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 29；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 2.87%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 1.84%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 5；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 4.69%。 核心观点 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 逆全球化成为趋势背景下，自主可控必要性进一步提升。4 月 11 日中物联公共采购分会发布《关于应对美国霸 凌关税，助力国内经济稳定发展的倡议书》，提出"锻造"自主链核"，强化供应链战略，以采购为战略纽 带，优先采购国产尖端设备、核心材料与服务，将产业链的"断点"转化为自主可控的"核心支点"。"考虑 当前国内中高端工业母机、科学仪器仍有较高进口依赖度，在当前贸易摩擦加剧，逆全球化成为趋势背景下自 主可控必要性进一步提升，后续政策支持力度有望不断加大，建议关注科德数控、华中数控、普源精电、优利 德、鼎阳科技等。 3 月挖机内销同比+28.5%，内需持续延续复苏态势。根据中国工 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the solar, wind, and energy storage sectors, highlighting strong demand and technological advancements [2][3][4]. Core Insights - The solar and energy storage sectors are expected to benefit from domestic demand support and supply discipline, with profitability in overseas battery and material production remaining strong [2][3]. - Wind power demand is projected to remain robust, with a significant increase in new bids for wind turbines in Q1, indicating sustained growth through 2026 [2][3]. - The development of virtual power plants is gaining momentum, with government guidance aimed at enhancing their scale and operational models [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Solar & Energy Storage - The shift from large-scale solar projects to distributed generation is emphasized, with domestic demand and supply discipline expected to strengthen [2][3]. - Longi Green Energy launched its second-generation BC products, improving module efficiency and bifacial rates [2][3]. - The report notes that recent policy changes and market dynamics suggest a favorable environment for solar demand in the second half of the year [7][8]. Wind Power - In Q1, state-owned enterprises added 26.2 GW of new wind power capacity, a 32% year-on-year increase, reinforcing the outlook for sustained demand through 2026 [2][3]. - The report highlights the strategic value of offshore wind projects amid increasing trade tensions and domestic demand expectations [2][3]. Grid and Virtual Power Plants - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have issued guidelines to accelerate the development of virtual power plants, aiming for significant capacity increases by 2027 [2][3][4]. - The report indicates that the first batch of procurement agreements in the North China region has been announced, with a focus on long-term vendor capabilities [2][3][4]. New Energy Vehicles & Lithium Batteries - BYD's Q1 profit forecast indicates strong performance driven by increased exports and effective cost management [3][4]. - CATL has received approval for its Hong Kong listing, with plans to raise at least $5 billion for overseas capacity expansion [3][4]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The report discusses the development of a "hydrogen corridor" in the western region, aiming to create a comprehensive hydrogen supply chain [5][10]. - The anticipated sales of hydrogen vehicles are projected to exceed 10,000 units by 2025, supported by infrastructure developments [5][10].

子行业周度核心观点： 光伏&储能：从大基地到分布式，中美贸易政策波动背景下，内需支撑及供给自律力度或进一步加强，同时海外优势 地区电池片及辅材产能盈利能力或有增无减；隆基发布 BC 二代新品，组件效率及双面率进一步提升。 风电：一季度央国企风电机组新增招标 26.2GW，同比增长 32%，重申我们对 2026 年陆风需求不会大幅下滑的判断； 东缆官宣阳江三山岛柔直订单，贸易摩擦加剧、内需预期强化背景下海风强基建属性配置价值凸显，持续重点推荐。 电网：1）发改委、能源局发布《关于加快推进虚拟电厂发展的指导意见》，明确提出加快提升虚拟电厂的发展规模和 水平，看好后续商业模式加速成熟；2）25 年华北区域联采协议库存 1 批中标公示，宁波奥克斯（三星医疗子公司） 中标份额第一，配网联合采购长期看注重厂商全产业链布局能力，持续推荐三星医疗；3）平高电气 Q1 业绩超预期， 许继电气 Q1 业绩略低于市场预期，华明装备、国能日新 24 年报整体业绩兑现度处于合理区间，符合市场预期。 新能源车：1）比亚迪发布 25Q1 业绩预告，Q1 净利润 85-100 亿元，证明增配降价对其利润影响不大，叠加出口表现 持续向上，业绩 ...

行情回顾 本周板块表现：上周（2025/04/7-2025/04/11）5 个交易日，SW 机械设备指数下跌 6.78%，在申万 31 个一级行 业分类中排名第 29；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 2.87%。2025 年至今表现：SW 机械设备指数上涨 1.84%，在申万 31 个一级行业分类中排名第 5；同期沪深 300 指数下跌 4.69%。 核心观点 投资建议 见"股票组合"。 风险提示 宏观经济变化风险；原材料价格波动风险；政策变化的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 逆全球化成为趋势背景下，自主可控必要性进一步提升。4 月 11 日中物联公共采购分会发布《关于应对美国霸 凌关税，助力国内经济稳定发展的倡议书》，提出"锻造"自主链核"，强化供应链战略，以采购为战略纽 带，优先采购国产尖端设备、核心材料与服务，将产业链的"断点"转化为自主可控的"核心支点"。"考虑 当前国内中高端工业母机、科学仪器仍有较高进口依赖度，在当前贸易摩擦加剧，逆全球化成为趋势背景下自 主可控必要性进一步提升，后续政策支持力度有望不断加大，建议关注科德数控、华中数控、普源精电、优利 德、鼎阳科技等。 3 月挖机内销同比+28. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.146 billion RMB for the year, a decrease of 12.1% year-on-year, attributed to reduced client budgets and slower project acceptance [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 204 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 44.0% to 114 million RMB [2]. - The company emphasizes operational quality, with improvements in gross margin and cash flow, achieving a gross margin increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is expanding its enterprise client base and transitioning its government services to a SaaS model, with over 1,500 new projects and 370 new clients in the government sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 2.323 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 8.22% [5]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 280 million RMB, representing a growth of 36.99% [5]. - The company has shown a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 264 million RMB, up 419.8% year-on-year [3]. Business Analysis - The company has optimized its enterprise procurement platform and launched the "New Point e-Transaction" brand, winning bids from major corporations [3]. - The introduction of AI technologies in procurement processes has led to the development of various AI-powered products for both enterprise and government clients [4]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 are 2.601 billion RMB and 2.923 billion RMB, respectively, with expected growth rates of 12.00% and 12.37% [5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 35.85, 30.19, and 26.09, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5].

2025/4/12 1 基金分析专题报告(深度) 证券研究报告 风险提示：基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料。本文涉及所有基金历史业绩均不代表未来表现。海外货币政策路径、国内经济复苏进程、刺激政策落实情况。2 3 4 图表：港股、 A 股、美股主要指数阶段涨跌对比 | 市场 | 指数代码 | 指数简称 | 2025YTD | 2024年度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港股 | HSI.HI | 恒生指数 | 15.25% | 17.67% | | | HSCEI.HI | 恒生国企 | 16.83% | 26.37% | | | HSTECH.HI | 恒生科技 | 20.74% | 18.70% | | | | HSSCSOY.HI 恒生港股通中国央企红利 | 2.61% | 28.43% | | A服 | 000001.SH | 上证指数 | -0.48% | 12 67% | | | 000300.SH | 沪深300 | -1.21% | 14.68% | | | 399006.SZ | 创业板指 | -1.77% | 13.2 ...

摘要 折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"25 河南路桥 MTN002"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只 个券中，"24 川发 K3"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 07"估值价格偏离幅度最 大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"24 建行二级资本债 02B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | | | 25 河南路桥 MTN002 | 2.89 | -0.27 | 99.74 | 10.17 | 4.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Google has launched its seventh-generation TPU, Ironwood (TPU v7), which significantly enhances AI inference capabilities and energy efficiency, expected to be available in late 2025 [15][20] - The active usage of AI applications has shown a notable increase in China, with several applications experiencing over 25% growth [11] - The ongoing tariff disputes are creating significant uncertainty in the storage market, affecting pricing and demand [21] Summary by Sections Google Cloud Next Developments - Google introduced the Agent Development Kit (ADK) to simplify multi-agent system development and management [11] - The new Gemini 2.5 Flash model focuses on efficiency and is set to support local deployment in Q3 2025 [12] - The Vertex AI platform has been updated with new AI tools for video, image, voice, and music generation [12] TPU v7 Launch - Ironwood is designed primarily for AI inference workloads, optimized for large language models and other complex tasks [16] - The TPU v7 supports up to 9,216 chips in a liquid-cooled cluster, achieving a peak performance of 42.5 Exaflops [19] - The memory capacity has increased to 192GB per chip, significantly enhancing data processing capabilities [19] Market Trends - MediaTek has released the Dimensity 9400+ chip, which enhances AI processing capabilities in mobile devices [23][24] - Apple is expected to launch foldable devices in 2026, which may boost consumer interest in foldable technology [26][29] - The report highlights the limited room for hardware improvements in mobile devices compared to PCs, emphasizing the importance of efficiency in AI development [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 84.6 RMB per share based on a 25-year valuation of 23X [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in China's consumer electrical industry, with a focus on converters and wall switches, achieving an average ROE of approximately 29% from 2020 to 2023. The company aims to diversify into three emerging business areas: new energy, no-main-lighting, and international expansion, with a goal of reaching a revenue target of 100 billion RMB [2][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Growth Strategy - The company has established itself as a leader in the consumer electrical sector, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.0% in revenue and 18.7% in net profit from 2020 to 2023, reaching 15.695 billion RMB in revenue and 3.87 billion RMB in net profit in 2023 [16]. - The company has a strong focus on maintaining high ROE levels, with an average of 29.0% from 2020 to 2023, positioning itself as a high-quality growth entity in the A-share light manufacturing industry [16]. 2. Emerging Business Areas - **New Energy Business**: Launched in 2021, this segment includes charging guns and storage products, with a revenue of 290 million RMB in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 120.2%. The company aims to leverage its existing technology and brand reputation to capture market share [3][4]. - **No-Main-Lighting Business**: Focused on health lighting, the company has developed the "Muguang" brand and established over 300 experience stores, driving growth in the lighting segment [3]. - **International Expansion**: The company has initiated its international business with a revenue of approximately 180 million RMB in 2023, targeting markets in Europe and Southeast Asia, with a clear strategy to replicate its domestic success [4]. 3. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.295 billion RMB, 4.754 billion RMB, and 5.192 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 10.98%, 10.68%, and 9.22% [4][8]. - The projected ROE for the mid-term is estimated to be in the range of 28-31%, driven by the profitability of emerging businesses and potential adjustments in capital structure through dividends or buybacks [3]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong competitive position in the converter and wall switch markets, with a focus on high net profit margins and market share. The average net profit margin from 2015 to 2023 is approximately 22.3%, supported by a robust brand and product differentiation [16][22]. - The company’s financial characteristics include high net profit margins, moderate turnover rates, and low debt levels, which contribute to its sustained high ROE [16][32]. 5. Management and Operational Efficiency - The company has adopted a unique management system (BBS) inspired by Danaher’s DBS, focusing on internal governance and operational efficiency to support its diversified growth strategy [46][47]. - The BBS framework emphasizes strategic planning, lean marketing, and efficient production processes, which are crucial for the successful expansion of new business lines [46].