Market Overview - Southeast Asia ETF declined by 2.99% in the last two weeks (2025/06/07-2025/06/20) [4] - Thailand's market remains under pressure, with the iShares MSCI Thailand ETF dropping by 6.41%, underperforming by 3.42 percentage points [5] - Vietnam's market showed signs of recovery, with the Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF decreasing only by 0.48%, outperforming by 2.52 percentage points [5] Country-Specific Performance - Indonesia's iShares MSCI ETF fell by 4.70%, underperforming by 1.71 percentage points, despite a brief recovery due to policy stimulus [5] - Singapore's iShares MSCI ETF decreased by 2.87%, slightly outperforming by 0.13 percentage points, as profit-taking occurred after a sustained rise since April [5] - Malaysia's iShares MSCI ETF dropped by 1.40%, outperforming by 1.59 percentage points, indicating a weak market adjustment phase [5] Trading Volume and Liquidity - Global X FTSE Southeast Asia ETF's trading volume fell by 65.4% to 112,000 shares [9] - Indonesia's trading volume increased by 50.7% to 7.297 million shares, while Singapore's volume decreased by 21.4% to 3.743 million shares [9] - Vietnam's trading volume decreased by 42.9% to 76,000 shares, reflecting low market liquidity [9] Economic and Political Risks - Thailand faces political instability and geopolitical risks, contributing to a consumer confidence index drop to 54.2 in May [19] - Indonesia's government introduced a $1.5 billion economic stimulus to counteract downward economic pressures [13] - Vietnam's market remains uncertain due to ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [24]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 38.10 CNY [2][6][25] Core Insights - The company is a leading manufacturer of steering pumps and is strategically advancing into the solid-state battery sector, with a robust growth forecast driven by its core business and global expansion [3][12][16] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 49.02 billion CNY, 53.27 billion CNY, and 57.91 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.62%, 8.66%, and 8.71% respectively [5][16] - Net profit (attributable to the parent company) is expected to reach 104 million CNY, 172 million CNY, and 220 million CNY for the years 2025-2027, with growth rates of 220.0%, 65.5%, and 28.0% respectively [5][16] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.69 CNY, 1.14 CNY, and 1.46 CNY for 2025-2027 [5][16] Business Overview - The company has a comprehensive product matrix, including noise reduction (NVH), thermal insulation, lightweight products, electric pumps, and automotive electronics, which positions it well in the automotive parts industry [12][26][33] - The company has established a global sales network that enhances its competitive edge, with partnerships with major automotive manufacturers such as Daimler, BMW, and Ford [12][30] Strategic Initiatives - The company has been investing in solid-state battery technology since 2017, with plans to invest approximately 300 million CNY in a pilot production line by the end of 2025 [12][16][26] - The solid-state battery segment is expected to become a significant growth driver for the company in the future [12][16][26] Market Position - The company has a strong presence in the international market, with 74.21% of its revenue coming from overseas in 2024, largely due to its acquisition of CCI [45][48] - The global market for insulation and noise reduction materials is projected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for electric vehicles [47][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The opening of the first overseas store in Singapore on June 21 is expected to accelerate the brand's international expansion and growth potential [3]. - The company's brand strength is on the rise, with product value highlighted by increasing gold prices, which is expected to enhance terminal sales and operational leverage [12]. - The company is positioned in the high-end market, benefiting from significant brand premium and reputation, with strong growth in both single-store performance and store expansion [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,264.60 million RMB in 2021 to 31,621.17 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.21% from 2021 to 2027 [7]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from 521.00 million RMB in 2021 to 12,998.34 million RMB by 2027, with a significant rise in net profit attributable to the parent company from 113.88 million RMB in 2021 to 6,155.58 million RMB by 2027 [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.75 RMB, 29.43 RMB, and 35.65 RMB respectively [12]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has successfully opened stores in Macau and Hong Kong, and the Singapore store is expected to replicate this success, potentially accelerating international store openings [8][12]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit margins will continue to improve due to operational leverage and product structure optimization [12]. - The target price for the stock is set at 960 HKD, based on a 30x valuation for 2026, indicating a strong growth outlook [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [2][11]. Core Insights - The price of photoinitiators is gradually increasing, benefiting companies like Jiu Ri New Materials due to rising product prices [4][6]. - The market demand for photoinitiators is expected to grow as their application scenarios become more widespread, driven by environmental requirements and emerging fields like 3D printing [6]. - Domestic photoinitiator companies are showing significant competitive advantages, with increasing industry concentration as leading firms excel in production management, scale, product quality, and R&D capabilities [6]. Summary by Sections Market Demand and Applications - The demand for photoinitiators is expanding continuously, with applications in traditional solvent-based coatings, inks, and adhesives being replaced by photopolymer materials [6]. - Key photoinitiator products include 907, 184, TPO, and 1173, which are used in various industries such as PCB inks, adhesives, and coatings for furniture and electronics [6]. Leading Companies - Jiu Ri New Materials has a scalable production capacity for multiple photoinitiators and offers one-stop raw material supply to downstream customers [6]. - Yangfan New Materials is a major global supplier of photoinitiators and thiol compounds, focusing on applications in pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and dyes [6]. - Qiangli New Materials specializes in electronic materials and green photopolymer materials, including photoinitiators and active diluents [6]. Industry Trends - The report highlights that the photoinitiator market is poised for rapid growth due to increasing environmental standards and technological advancements [6]. - The concentration of the industry is expected to rise further as domestic chemical companies adapt to stricter environmental regulations and the high-end development of downstream applications [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][10]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its industrial internet platform and is successfully implementing its "going out" strategy, with AI application scenarios accelerating [3][10]. - The projected revenue for the company is expected to grow from 13.51 billion yuan in 2024 to 22.68 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.5% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 927.43 million yuan in 2024 to 2.13 billion yuan in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 28.4% in 2027 [4][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its market presence, with over 120 mature AI application scenarios developed and contracts worth 256 million yuan signed in 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections: 1,141 million yuan (2023), 1,351 million yuan (2024), 1,642 million yuan (2025), 1,947 million yuan (2026), and 2,268 million yuan (2027) [4][11]. - Net profit (attributable to shareholders): 62 million yuan (2023), 93 million yuan (2024), 126 million yuan (2025), 166 million yuan (2026), and 213 million yuan (2027) [4][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: 0.09 yuan (2023), 0.14 yuan (2024), 0.19 yuan (2025), 0.24 yuan (2026), and 0.31 yuan (2027) [4][11]. Market Data - The company's stock price has ranged between 7.01 yuan and 16.02 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 7,749 million yuan [5][10]. - The company has a total share capital of 678 million shares, with 423 million shares in circulation [5][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target price of 13.96 yuan based on a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 75 times for 2025 [10][12]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 125.43 in 2023 to 36.41 in 2027 [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate market in May continued to show stability, aligning with the government's efforts to stabilize the market and prevent further declines [3][60] - Key indicators such as sales area and sales amount showed narrow fluctuations compared to April, with sales area declining by 4.6% year-on-year and sales amount decreasing by 7.1% [5][60] - The report anticipates that urban renewal will be a significant focus, with an emphasis on "building good houses" as a consensus in the industry [61][62] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - In May, the real estate market maintained a steady state, with most data showing narrow fluctuations compared to April [5][60] - Year-on-year sales area decreased by 4.6%, while sales amount fell by 7.1% [5][60] - The report notes that the overall trend is expected to continue, with a focus on stabilizing the market [3][60] 2. Investment Trends - The cumulative real estate development investment from January to May 2025 was 36,234 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% [12] - New construction area saw a year-on-year decline of 22.8%, while completed area decreased by 17.3% [18][26] - The report suggests that the focus should shift from year-on-year growth rates to absolute levels, with a projected total real estate development investment of 10 trillion yuan for 2024 [61][62] 3. Sales Performance - From January to May 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 35.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9% [26][28] - The sales amount for commercial housing was 34,091 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [10][26] - The report highlights a mismatch in supply and demand in first-tier cities, with sales showing significant strength [33] 4. Funding Sources - Total funding sources for real estate reached 40,232 billion yuan from January to May 2025, down 5.3% year-on-year [45][47] - Domestic loans accounted for 16.6% of funding sources, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [47][49] - The report indicates that self-raised funds decreased by 7.2%, while foreign investment saw a significant increase of 49% [47][56] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Vanke A, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development in the development category [62] - For commercial and residential sectors, companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group are highlighted [62] - The report emphasizes that companies with lower burdens will have a more significant advantage in the current structural market [62]

股票研究/[Table_Date] 2025.06.19 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 股 票 研 究 全球局势不稳，国内稳定溢价 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 [table_Authors] 吴杰(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040109 本报告导读： 近期南方梅雨开始，预计水电出力或增加，下周水电或受益，可以关注。 投资要点： 行 业 双 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 梅雨到来，需求增加，水电火电皆可看好。如我们上周所说"5 月 长源电力和龙源电力的发电数据均较前 5 月好转，近期南方梅雨或 开始，预计水电出力或增加，夏季的火电和煤炭需求仍需观察"。截 止 6 月 13 日 Q2 现货电价广东同比-1.4%，山东山西-15/-14%，预计 是广东梅雨用电需求大增。 要求分布式光伏自用高比例，实质是将消纳责任"内部化"：（1）浙 江、安徽、江苏、广东等地明确年自发自用电量占发电量的比例暂 不强制要求；山西、辽宁、山东、广西、海南等省（区）余电上网 模式的年自发自用比例需 50%以 ...

Financial System and Global Governance - The international monetary system is evolving towards a structure with a few dominant sovereign currencies competing and balancing each other[11] - The global cross-border payment system is developing towards greater efficiency, security, inclusiveness, and diversity[11] - New structural monetary policy tools are being innovated, including pilot programs for blockchain credit letters and cross-border trade financing[12] Financial Opening and Opportunities - China's financial high-level opening has vast prospects, focusing on expanding consumer demand and financial services[3] - Strong momentum in green finance, with foreign institutions introducing ESG rating systems and climate risk management tools[3] - Significant potential in pension finance, with plans to expand pension wealth management and insurance products[3] Capital Market and Innovation - The capital market is being enhanced to better support technology and industrial innovation, with new policies to facilitate the listing of unprofitable tech companies[6] - The introduction of a "1+6" policy framework aims to deepen reforms in the capital market, including the establishment of a growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[23] - Emphasis on nurturing long-term capital and improving the service system for technology enterprises throughout their lifecycle[23] Foreign Exchange Management - A comprehensive foreign exchange management system is being established to enhance convenience, openness, safety, and intelligence[28] - Ten facilitation policies will be implemented in free trade pilot zones, including optimizing international trade settlement and expanding the Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) pilot[28] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, with a focus on managing risks associated with the weakening of the US dollar's dominance[28]

国泰海通基础化工_企业调研邀请函 联合调研邀请函 尊敬的投资者朋友： 您好！ 2025 年供需关系变化复杂，基础化工行业会有怎样的变化？行业细分子行业众多， 各行业之间又有什么差异性的机会？ 报名方式：本次联合调研唯一指定报名邮箱：shenwei2@gtht.com 国泰海通研究所联合调研客户报名标准表头 单位、姓名、岗位、手机号、邮箱、报名接受人属于必须项 期待并衷心感谢您的参与！ 我们专程安排了知名上市公司高管开展座谈交流。 我们安排了小范围调研，将很荣幸地邀请到您的参与，具体细节如下： 6 月 20 日调研 调研议程：具体行程如下： （1）6 月 20 日：闰土股份 发起人：【沈唯】 邀请对象：国泰海通证券机构客户 此致 敬礼 国泰海通证券 2025 年 6 月 18 日 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the optimistic outlook for China's stock market, termed as the "transformation bull market," driven by declining discount rates and favorable economic policies, which create a conducive environment for thematic investments [10][11]. Investment Themes Theme 1: Artificial Intelligence (AI) - AI is identified as a key investment trend with significant characteristics, including a clear industrial logic and vast market potential. The investment path is expected to follow the patterns of "information infrastructure construction," "basic software deployment," "online application explosion," and "restructuring of offline industries" [2][32]. - The AI industry is in an early stage, with the potential for substantial growth as it transitions from overseas mapping and speculative trading to self-sufficiency and industrial chain momentum [24][33]. Theme 2: Embodied Intelligence - The report highlights the rapid commercialization of humanoid robots, with applications expected to accelerate in various sectors such as education, healthcare, and industrial manufacturing. China has a robust manufacturing base and a complete supply chain for humanoid robots [38][39]. - The market for humanoid robots is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 200,000 units by 2035, driven by increasing demand in both B2B and B2C scenarios [47][48]. Theme 3: Biological Economy and Brain-Machine Interfaces - The biological economy is poised for growth, leveraging advancements in biotechnology, including synthetic biology and gene editing technologies. This sector is expected to meet health, safety, nutrition, and environmental needs [57][59]. - The brain-machine interface industry is still in the research phase, but several companies are making strides in hardware and application breakthroughs, indicating a promising future for this technology [4][62]. Theme 4: 6G Communication - The report anticipates significant advancements in communication technology with the development of 6G, which promises lower latency and higher connection density compared to 5G. This will drive upgrades across the entire industry chain, from materials to applications [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the decline in risk-free interest rates and improved investor sentiment are key drivers of market dynamics, facilitating increased market participation and investment opportunities [11][15]. - The government's focus on innovation and technology integration is expected to further stimulate the growth of emerging industries, creating a favorable investment landscape [17][23].