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中信博:2024年业绩符合预期,海外市场持续交付-20250521
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-21 04:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 632 million yuan in 2024, aligning with market expectations. Revenue for 2024 reached 9.026 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.25%, while net profit grew by 83.03% [4][10]. - The total shipment of solar brackets in 2024 increased by 36% year-on-year, driven by rising photovoltaic demand in markets like India and new production capacity [5]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in tracking brackets, with significant market share and ongoing project signings in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Central Asia [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.044 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.56% and a year-on-year increase of 16.81%. The net profit for the same period was 204 million yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.84% [4]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18.6%, a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points, with tracking brackets achieving a gross margin of 19.7% [6]. - The company forecasts revenues of 10.6 billion yuan, 11.8 billion yuan, and 13.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 920 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.31 billion yuan [7][10].
中信博(688408):2024年业绩符合预期,海外市场持续交付
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-21 03:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating expected returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 632 million yuan in 2024, aligning with market expectations. Revenue for 2024 reached 9.026 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.25%, while net profit grew by 83.03% [4][5]. - The total shipment of solar brackets in 2024 increased by 36% year-on-year, driven by rising photovoltaic demand in markets like India and new production capacity [5]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in tracking brackets, with significant market share and ongoing project signings in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Central Asia [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 90.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 41.25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.32 billion yuan, up 83.03% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 18.6%, a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin improved to 7.1%, up 1.7 percentage points [6][10]. - Forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 project revenues of 10.6 billion yuan, 11.8 billion yuan, and 13.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.2 billion yuan, 9.5 billion yuan, and 13.1 billion yuan [7][10].
兴发集团:25Q1业绩环比复苏,静待需求回暖-20250521
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-21 02:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.396 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.601 billion yuan, up 14.33% year-on-year [4][6]. - The agricultural chemical market is showing signs of recovery, contributing to stable performance in profitability throughout the year [6]. - The company has adjusted its production and sales strategies, leading to significant increases in operating rates and sales volumes across its main products [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.90% [5]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.346 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.70% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.60% [8]. Product Performance - The company’s main product segments, including specialty chemicals, fertilizers, pesticides, and organic silicon, generated revenues of 5.278 billion, 4.049 billion, 5.204 billion, and 2.647 billion yuan respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.97%, 12.26%, 21.50%, and 23.48% [6]. - The average market prices for key products in 2024 were as follows: glyphosate at 25,049.75 yuan/ton (down 22.96%), phosphate rock at 1,013.52 yuan/ton (up 2.36%), and DMC at 13,987.6 yuan/ton (down 6.34%) [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company invested 1.188 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, focusing on technological innovations and project advancements to support its transition to a green chemical new materials enterprise [11]. - Key projects such as the 1 million tons/year optical selection mining project and the 200,000 tons/year phosphate rock selection project have commenced operations, enhancing the company's resource utilization [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.825 billion, 2.078 billion, and 2.366 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 10 [12].
阿里巴巴-W:FY25Q4业绩点评:云业务加速增长,淘天TR同比提升-20250520
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-20 08:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In FY25Q4, Alibaba's revenue reached 236.5 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations; adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit were 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%); the Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%); the Local Life Group's revenue was 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), slightly below expectations by 1.7%, with adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan (up 28%); the Cainiao Group's revenue was 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), below expectations by 14%, with adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan (up 55%); the Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), exceeding expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%); the Digital Entertainment Group's revenue was 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), with adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5][6] - The CMR performance of Taobao was impressive, with a year-over-year increase of 12% to 71.1 billion yuan, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9%, and the take rate improved year-over-year [6] - The cloud business accelerated growth, with revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations; the capital expenditure for the quarter was 24.6 billion yuan, with a total of 86 billion yuan for FY2025, significantly higher than 32.1 billion yuan in FY2024 [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, representing year-over-year growth of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6%, respectively; Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth of 7.1%, 9.9%, and 3.5% [6][10]
阿里巴巴-W(09988):FY25Q4业绩点评:云业务加速增长,淘天TR同比提升
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-20 06:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's overall performance in FY25Q4 showed a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit reached 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, both exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%). The international digital commerce group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%) [5] - The cloud intelligence group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%) [6] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In FY25Q4, the company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 29.8 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [4][5] Segment Performance - Taobao Group: Revenue of 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%) [5] - International Digital Commerce Group: Revenue of 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan [5] - Local Life Group: Revenue of 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan [5] - Cainiao Group: Revenue of 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan [6] - Entertainment Group: Revenue of 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5] Cloud Business Growth - The cloud business showed accelerated growth with a revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), surpassing Bloomberg's expectations. The AI business has seen continuous triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6% respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan for the same period [6][10]
“打新定期跟踪”系列之二百一十四:新股首日涨幅有所回落
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-19 13:40
- The report tracks the recent performance of the offline IPO market for the STAR Market, ChiNext, and the Main Board, assuming all stocks are hit and sold at the market average price on the first day of listing, ignoring the lock-up period restrictions [1][11] - Since 2025 until 2025/5/16, the IPO yield for a Class A 2 billion account is 1.32%, and for a Class B 2 billion account is 1.15%; for a Class A 10 billion account, the IPO yield is 0.30%, and for a Class B 10 billion account, the IPO yield is 0.27% [1][11] - The median number of valid quotation accounts for recent 20 new stocks is tracked, with the number of valid quotation accounts for Class A STAR Market new stocks around 3051, and for Class B around 1784; for Class A ChiNext new stocks around 3414, and for Class B around 2056; for Class A Main Board stocks around 3493, and for Class B around 2376 [2][23] - The average first-day increase for STAR Market stocks is 198.41%, and for ChiNext stocks is 227.46% [1][16] - The report measures the theoretical IPO yield for different scale accounts, assuming all stocks are hit and sold at the market average price on the first day of listing, ignoring the lock-up period restrictions [1][11] - The report lists the IPO results for recent new stocks, including the issuance price, issuance P/E ratio, industry P/E ratio, number of new shares issued, and the actual fundraising amount [25][26] - The report provides a calendar of recent IPOs, including the status of stocks waiting for inquiry, waiting for issuance price announcement, waiting for subscription, and waiting for listing [27][28][29] - The report calculates the full subscription yield for each stock, using the average winning rate of Class A institutions to estimate the yield when fully subscribed [35][37] - The report lists the monthly IPO yield and IPO yield rate for different scale Class A accounts, assuming all stock quotations are included, with a 90% fund utilization efficiency [42][43][44][45][46] - The report lists the monthly IPO yield and IPO yield rate for different scale Class B accounts, assuming all stock quotations are included, with a 90% fund utilization efficiency [47][48][49][50][51]
汉钟精机(002158):压缩机发力数据中心,半导体真空泵加速发展
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-19 12:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.674 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.62% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 863 million yuan, down 0.28% [4][5] - The compressor business showed steady growth, generating 2.030 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 55.26% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 4.31% [5] - The vacuum pump segment faced short-term pressure, with revenue of 1.346 billion yuan, a decline of 18.04% year-on-year, primarily due to overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry [5] - The company is focusing on R&D innovation to capture opportunities in the data center sector and is expanding its international market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 706 million yuan, an increase of 8.32% [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a net operating cash flow of 112 million yuan, a significant decrease of 85.50% [4] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 3.484 billion yuan, 3.568 billion yuan, and 3.774 billion yuan respectively, with net profit projections of 762 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 893 million yuan [7] - The diluted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 1.42 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.67 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.89, 12.09, and 10.99 [7][9]
康斯特(300445):业绩稳健,高精度传感器助力多元化发展
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-19 11:59
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable performance, with a 2024 annual revenue of 575 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 125 million yuan, up 23.07% year-on-year [5][8] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 111 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.39% to 22.18 million yuan [5] - The calibration testing products are evolving, and the digital platform business is providing growth momentum, with applications expanding into various sectors including biomedicine and new energy [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 665 million yuan, 770 million yuan, and 892 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 158 million yuan, 187 million yuan, and 221 million yuan [8][11] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.74 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.04 yuan respectively, with a current P/E ratio of 23, 20, and 16 for the respective years [8][11] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 64.7% in 2024 to 69.5% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11][12]
精测电子(300567):半导体量检测产品布局多维强化,25Q1业绩改善明显
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-19 11:32
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its performance in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profit compared to the previous year despite a decline in revenue [6] - The semiconductor segment has seen substantial growth, with sales revenue increasing by 94.65% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and successful product development [7] - The company is actively expanding its product lines and enhancing its R&D efforts, particularly in the semiconductor field, which is expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.59%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -98 million yuan, a decline of 165.02% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 39.97%, down 8.98 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was -8.69%, a decrease of 12.37 percentage points [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 689 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.92%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 336.06% to 38 million yuan [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 3.039 billion yuan, 3.554 billion yuan, and 4.369 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 194 million yuan, 308 million yuan, and 521 million yuan [11] - The projected diluted EPS for the same period is 0.69 yuan, 1.10 yuan, and 1.86 yuan, respectively [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the semiconductor testing equipment market, with a strategic partnership and investment in related companies to enhance its competitive edge [8] - The company is also diversifying its product offerings in the display and new energy sectors, although these segments are currently facing challenges [9][10]
债市情绪面周报(5月第3周):部分债市多头开始松动-20250519
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-19 09:55
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has shifted from "bullish but not buying" to a stage where some bulls are "wavering." The short - term trading themes are broad - based monetary policy and the fundamentals. The 10 - year Treasury bond is oscillating around 1.65% - 1.70%, and the bond market is likely to be range - bound in the short term. The impact of positive events on the bond market is rapid this year. The proportion of capital gain demand in the comprehensive return has been continuously increasing, so the duration should be maintained, and leverage can be appropriately increased if the funding rate declines [2]. - From the perspective of market sentiment, the bond market has changed from "bullish but not buying" to a stage where some bulls are "wavering." This week, some bulls have turned neutral, the number of institutions with bearish views has increased by one, and the sentiment index has declined [3]. - The fundamentals and broad - based monetary policy are the "battlefields" for the bulls and bears among the sellers. As of May 19, the number of fixed - income sellers with bullish views has decreased to 10, the number of those with bearish views has increased to 3, and the number of those with neutral views has risen to 17 [3]. - Among the buyers, those with neutral views also account for more than half, and the proportion of institutions with bullish views has decreased. The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral - bullish. Currently, there are 10 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [3]. - In the Treasury bond futures market, the positive arbitrage space for the TS contract has decreased, and it may still be in a premium state. One can consider participating in the game of the TS contract rising [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The seller sentiment index has decreased compared to last week. The weighted index this week is 0.18 (neutral - bullish, down 0.10 from last week), and the unweighted index is 0.28 (down 0.14 from last week). Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 10 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish. 33% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as the long - term trend of Sino - US decoupling despite tariff fluctuations, a possible LPR cut this week, and the expected continuation of monetary easing; 57% are neutral, with keywords such as high macro - environment uncertainty, waiting for a new market trigger after the double - cut and tariff easing, and the bond market may have a narrow - range oscillation; 10% are bearish, with keywords such as the exhaustion of the double - cut benefits, the lack of support for the bond market reflected by the non - rising funding rate, and the central bank may take measures to maintain the bank's net interest margin and push up the long - term bond yield after the tariff cut [13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index has decreased compared to last week. This week's sentiment index is 0.18 (neutral - bullish, down 0.22 from last week). Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 10 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish. 35% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as continuous loosening of the funding side, the economy still needing policy support, and the reduction of funding costs; 55% are neutral, with keywords such as fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade expectations, frequent policy disturbances, unclear fundamental expectations, differentiated interest - rate trends, limited adjustment space but repeated directions; 10% are bearish, with keywords such as the marginal weakening of easing expectations, the enhanced expectation of economic fundamental repair, frequent funding disturbances, and increased long - end supply pressure [14]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include policies to promote science - and - technology innovation bonds and implicit debt accountability. Multiple departments have introduced policies to promote the construction of science - and - technology innovation bonds, and it is expected that future issuance increments will be for financial institutions and private enterprises, covering more science - and - technology innovation fields. The Ministry of Finance has emphasized local government implicit debt governance again, and the issuance supervision of urban investment bonds has become stricter, with risks being relatively controllable in the short term [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 2 bullish and 6 neutral. 25% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as the positive impact of the double - cut and the end of the earnings disclosure period, the increased risk appetite in the convertible bond market, and the strong equity market becoming an important support for convertible bonds; 75% are neutral, with keywords such as the current high valuation of convertible bonds, low cost - effectiveness, a possible range - bound oscillation pattern, and the need for incremental funds or overall underlying stock repair for a stronger market [20]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - In terms of futures prices, except for the increase in the TS contract price, the prices of other futures contracts have decreased. As of May 16, the prices of the Treasury TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.38 yuan, 105.72 yuan, 108.48 yuan, and 118.91 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.04 yuan, - 0.38 yuan, - 0.58 yuan, and - 1.46 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of Treasury bond futures open interest, except for the increase in the TS contract open interest, the open interest of other futures contracts has decreased. As of May 16, the open interest of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts is 84,000 lots, 79,000 lots, 100,000 lots, and 50,000 lots respectively, with changes of +702 lots, - 64,061 lots, - 76,980 lots, and - 31,940 lots compared to last Friday. - The trading volume of Treasury bond futures has increased across the board. As of May 16, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts are 132.9 billion yuan, 98.5 billion yuan, 131.1 billion yuan, and 155.6 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 40.2 billion yuan, 25.9 billion yuan, 44.7 billion yuan, and 39.9 billion yuan compared to last Friday. - The trading volume - to - open - interest ratio of Treasury bond futures has increased across the board. As of May 16, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volume - to - open - interest ratios of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts are 1.01, 0.98, 1.03, and 2.58 respectively, with increases of 0.49, 0.49, 0.56, and 1.33 compared to last Friday [24][25]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds has decreased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 2.32%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 0.41 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average turnover rate of 3.33%. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 0.89%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week and 0.22 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has increased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 5.81%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week but down 1.54 percentage points from Monday [35][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - In terms of basis trends in the past week, the basis of the TF main contract has narrowed, while the basis of other main contracts has widened. As of May 16, the basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.07 yuan, +0.05 yuan, +0.11 yuan, and +0.17 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.03 yuan, +0.10 yuan, +0.17 yuan, and +0.05 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of net basis, the net basis of the TS main contract has widened, while the net basis of other main contracts has narrowed. As of May 16, the net basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.05 yuan, +0.03 yuan, +0.02 yuan, and +0.03 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.06 yuan, +0.12 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and +0.09 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of the TS contract has increased, while the IRR of other main contracts has decreased. As of May 16, the IRR (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 1.79%, 1.32%, 1.46%, and 1.39% respectively, with changes of +0.35%, - 1.02%, - 0.66%, and - 0.56% compared to last Friday. The TS main contract's basis is negative this week, and the weekly average IRR is 1.65%, at a relatively high level. Since the funding side is generally in a stage of loosening this week, with the weekly average DR007 at 1.54%, one can pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS contract [41][44][45]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - product Spread - In terms of inter - delivery spread, the spread of the T contract has widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 16, the near - month minus far - month spreads of the TS/TF/T/TL contracts are - 0.11 yuan, - 0.20 yuan, - 0.17 yuan, and - 0.34 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.09 yuan, +0.14 yuan, - 0.00 yuan, and +0.19 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of inter - product spread, the spreads of the 2*TS - TF and 4*TS - T contracts have widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 16, the values of 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL are 99.04 yuan, 102.93 yuan, 301.01 yuan, and 206.50 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.43 yuan, - 0.25 yuan, +0.62 yuan, and - 0.29 yuan compared to last Friday. Currently, the downward space for long - term interest rates is limited. If the central bank takes measures to ease liquidity, there may be downward opportunities for the medium - and short - term. There is considerable room for gaming in short - term Treasury bond futures, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on the short - end and short on the long - end to steepen the yield curve [51][52].