证券研究报告 鸿路钢构 (002541 CH) Q1 吨净利迎来改善拐点 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 建筑施工 | 公司发布一季报：2025Q1 实现营收 48 亿元，同比+8.78%，归母净利 1.37 亿元，同比-32.78%，扣非净利 1.15 亿元，同比+31.27%。我们认为公司 在经过两年智能化改造投入后，25 年有望迎来资本开支影响减弱、产能利 用率恢复爬坡趋势、机器人应用降本增效阶段。公司 25Q1 新签订单测算量 137 万吨，同比+13.9%，实现产量 104.91 万吨，同比+14.3%，吨净利 109 元/吨，同比提升 14 元/吨，环比提升 10 元/吨，盈利能力连续 7 个季度同比 下滑以来首次迎来改善拐点，维持"买入"评级。 25Q1 研发费用减少，吨净利同、环比提升 25Q1 公司毛利率为 9.83%，同比-0.76pct，环比-0.93pct，吨毛利同比减少 60 元/吨，环比减少 29 元/吨，显示成本端受钢价持续下滑的影响有所降低。 我 们 测 算 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 10.821 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 124.02%, and a net profit of 215 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3344.13% [1][2]. - The company's strong brand momentum and competitive strength in the industry have been validated, leading to an optimistic outlook for the company's profitability and market position [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's volume snack business generated revenue of 10.7 billion RMB, up 128% year-over-year, driven by an increase in store numbers, although same-store sales showed a slight decline [2]. - The net profit margin for the volume snack business improved significantly to 3.85%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, attributed to reduced marketing expenses and improved subsidies to merchants [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has announced a stock incentive plan, granting approximately 1.2% of current share capital, with performance targets set for net profit growth over the next four years [3]. - This initiative indicates the company's commitment to deepening its presence in the volume snack sector and reflects confidence in achieving substantial growth [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 820 million RMB, 1.14 billion RMB, and 1.41 billion RMB respectively, representing increases of 23%, 38%, and 54% [4][10]. - The target price for the company's shares has been raised to 182.22 RMB, based on a projected PE ratio of 40 times for 2025, reflecting the company's strong competitive position and growth potential in the volume snack industry [4][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 71.07 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.326 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.02%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 5.26% to 104.44 million RMB [1][7]. - The company has faced short-term profit pressure due to delayed aerospace orders and reduced scale effects, but there is optimism for a rebound in performance as military demand increases [1][5]. - The company has made significant adjustments to its financials, leading to a substantial increase in the projected net profit for 2024 compared to earlier estimates [2]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 1.326 billion RMB, with a net profit of 104.44 million RMB, down from previous expectations [1][7]. - The revenue breakdown shows that customized products, 3D printing equipment, and materials generated 6.89 billion, 5.45 billion, and 0.91 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 23.51%, 4.99%, and 41.38% [3]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 is reported at 37.44%, a decrease of 9.76 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to price reductions in mass-produced aerospace products [4]. Market Segmentation - The company’s revenue from the aerospace sector reached 8.15 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.08%, while other sectors like industrial and medical saw declines [3]. - The overseas revenue significantly increased by 58.47% to 0.81 billion RMB, indicating successful market expansion [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 280.87 million, 373.83 million, and 506.31 million RMB respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 28.41% and 30.10% for 2025 and 2026 compared to previous estimates [5][19]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.03 RMB, with a return on equity (ROE) of 5.51% [7][23]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 62 for 2025, with a target PE of 44 for the same year [5][18]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is reported at 3.4, indicating a premium valuation compared to peers [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 10.15 [7][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 20.96 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, and a net profit of RMB 2.16 billion, down 26.9% year-on-year, which is in line with previous expectations [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of RMB 6.19 billion, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 0.94 billion, up 5.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in growth [1] - The company is focusing on solidifying its core apparel business while expanding into the sports sector and accelerating globalization, particularly through the new JD Outlet business model [1][2] Revenue and Growth - The main brand, group buying, and other brands (including FCC and JD Outlet) generated revenues of RMB 15.27 billion, RMB 2.22 billion, and RMB 2.67 billion respectively, with growth rates of -7.2%, -2.5%, and +32.4% [2] - Offline revenue for 2024 was RMB 15.74 billion with a total of 7,178 stores, while online revenue increased by 35.6% to RMB 4.42 billion, reflecting a robust multi-channel marketing strategy [2] Profitability and Costs - The gross profit margin remained stable at 44.5% in 2024, while the net profit margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 10.4% due to increased selling and management expenses [3] - Selling expense ratio increased by 2.9 percentage points to 23.1%, primarily due to the rise in direct store numbers and advertising costs [3] Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory turnover days increased by 47 days to 330 days, mainly due to the consolidation of the FCC business and increased winter apparel inventory [4] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 42.9% year-on-year to RMB 6.79 billion, potentially due to increased dividend payouts and the impact of the FCC business [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 is RMB 2.78 billion and RMB 3.11 billion respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of RMB 3.39 billion [5] - The target price is based on a 2025E PE of 17.5x, with a comparison to the industry average PE of 17.0x [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a buy rating for the company’s A/H shares [5][8]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year decline in net profit and operating income for Q1 2025, with net profit down by 2.6% and operating income down by 0.1% [1]. - The company is experiencing pressure on its net interest margin, which decreased to 1.71%, while non-interest income showed strong growth of 14.8% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on cost optimization, which is reflected in the reduction of its cost-to-income ratio to 56.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company’s annualized ROE and ROA were 11.33% and 0.58%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The company’s total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 8.3%, 9.8%, and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Credit and Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was reported at 0.91%, with a provision coverage ratio of 266% [4]. - The company’s NPL generation rate increased to 0.88%, indicating a rise in asset quality concerns [4]. Capital and Valuation - The report estimates the company’s EPS for 2025 at 0.88 RMB, with a projected PB ratio of 0.70 for A shares and 0.64 for H shares [5]. - The target prices are set at 6.29 RMB for A shares and 6.17 HKD for H shares [8][9].

证券研究报告 伊利股份 (600887 CH) 25Q1 业绩大超预期,毛销差明显提振 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 食品 | 24 年收入 / 归 母 净 利 / 扣非净利 1157.8/84.5/60.1 亿，同比 -8.2%/-18.9%/-40.0%；24Q4 收入/归母净利/扣非净利 267.4/-24.2/-25.0 亿， 同比-7.1%/转亏/转亏；25Q1 收入/归母净利/扣非净利 330.2/48.7/46.3 亿， 同比+1.4%/-17.7%/+24.2%，业绩大超预期（我们前瞻预计 25Q1 收入同比 -6%，扣非净利同比-3%）。24Q3 末公司液奶业务渠道调整结束、24Q4 以 来轻装上阵，25Q1 公司液奶收入保持平稳；公司婴配粉业务具备竞争力， 25Q1 经营向好，婴配粉业务增势较好；冷饮业务 25Q1 收入仍有小幅下滑， 但渠道库存调整已基本结束，25 年旺季有望开启正增。利润端，25Q1 毛销 差同比+3.3pct，盈利能力明显提振。25 年公司计划实现营 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year improvement in Q1 2025 performance, with revenue of 798 million RMB, up 23.99% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116 million RMB, up 36.58% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively expanding into emerging fields and overseas markets, which is expected to sustain profit growth in 2025 [1] - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic explosion-proof electrical equipment sector, leveraging technological advantages and certifications to create high barriers to entry [3] - The company is strategically positioning itself in the explosion-proof robotics sector, collaborating with Tianchuang Robotics to develop advanced products [4] - The company’s profit forecast for 2025-2027 shows a net profit of 525.25 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 49.36%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.86 percentage points but an improvement of 8.19 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The total expense ratio for the quarter was 34.91%, down 4.19 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company has diversified its revenue sources, with emerging fields such as food, medicine, and military industries accounting for 20% of its revenue, and overseas business contributing nearly 24% of total revenue [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for intelligent solutions in industrial safety as it continues to expand its international presence [5] Growth Prospects - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 613.39 million RMB in 2026 and 775.87 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 26.49% from 2025 to 2027 [19] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 29.64 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 times for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 10.81 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1135.4 million RMB and a net profit of 20.6 million RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% and 0.1% respectively. The performance was below expectations due to significant credit impairment losses in Q4 [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the approval of 10 new nuclear power units, which will likely sustain high investment levels in the nuclear sector [1][4]. - The revenue from nuclear engineering projects increased by 34.6% year-on-year, contributing to a 29% share of total revenue, while the gross margin for Q4 improved by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company signed new contracts worth 1634.4 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and for Q1 2025, the new contracts amounted to 541.8 million RMB, up 30.7% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s R&D expense ratio slightly increased to 2.83% in 2024, reflecting higher investments in key construction areas like nuclear power [3]. - The company recorded a credit impairment loss of 20.5 million RMB in 2024, which is a 7.3% increase year-on-year [3]. Market Outlook - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units in April 2025 is expected to further stimulate nuclear investment, with a reported 48.8% year-on-year increase in nuclear investment during the first two months of 2025 [4]. - The company has secured 14 new nuclear unit construction projects in 2024, increasing the total number of units under construction to 32 by the end of 2024 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 23.5 million RMB, 28.2 million RMB, and 32.4 million RMB respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 8% and 7% from previous estimates [5]. - The company’s target market value for 2025 is set at 326 billion RMB, with a target price of 10.81 RMB per share [5].

证券研究报告 周大生 (002867 CH) 业绩短期承压，高分红回馈股东 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 零售 | | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (人民币百万) | 16,290 | 13,891 | 15,246 | 16,999 | 18,968 | | +/-% | 46.52 | (14.73) | 9.75 | 11.50 | 11.59 | | 归属母公司净利润 (人民币百万) | 1,316 | 1,010 | 1,104 | 1,227 | 1,383 | | +/-% | 20.67 | (23.25) | 9.27 | 11.18 | 12.73 | | EPS (人民币，最新摊薄) | 1.20 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.12 | 1.26 | | ROE (%) | 20.56 | 15.77 | 17.15 | 18.39 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 showed a revenue of 16.746 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.96%, with a gross margin of 32.98% [1] - The decline in offshore duty-free sales is expected to stabilize, with a potential recovery in operations as demand improves [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from various supportive policies, a rebound in inbound tourism, and an expansion of product offerings, which could enhance profitability [1][3] - The introduction of new tax refund policies is anticipated to boost consumer spending among inbound tourists [3] - The long-term value of the company remains promising, with target prices set at 79.1 RMB for A-shares and 73.08 HKD for H-shares [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 16.746 billion, with a net profit of 1.938 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.98% [1] - The company expects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.26, 2.56, and 2.91 RMB respectively [4] Market Trends - The sales figures for offshore duty-free in January, February, and March 2025 were 3.13 billion, 5.28 billion, and 2.90 billion respectively, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [2] - The recovery in airport passenger traffic is evident, with significant increases in international passenger throughput [2] Policy Impact - New tax refund policies are expected to enhance the shopping experience for inbound tourists, potentially increasing their spending [3] - The company is actively expanding its city store channels, which are expected to capture additional inbound tourist traffic [3]