证券研究报告 宏观 关税降级带动出口跳升、生产回暖 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 18 日│中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 5月12日中美发布联声明，将4月2日以来双方加征的125%关税降至34%， 并对其中 24%的关税暂停 90 天实施，仅加征 10%的关税。上周港口高频 指标显示出口活跃度较快回升，到港船舶数量同比由前一周的-11%回正至 1%，或显示抢出口和产能出海的需求有望继续支撑中国出口。出口需求亦 带动工业生产同比回暖，基建活动走强，但地产及建筑活动放缓。 高频经济活动跟踪 港口高频数据显示上周出口活跃度低位跳升，集装箱美线运价上涨，工业 生产及基建活动同比亦有回暖，地产成交同比增速回落。出行及消费方面， 上周 18 城地铁客运量同比上升 0.9%，乘用车零售同比回升 37.3%；工业 生产方面，焦化/高炉开工率同比回升 2.3/2.6 个百分点，水泥企业开工率同 比回升 6.2 个百分点；建筑钢材成交量同比仍在-21.1%的偏弱区间。出口方 面，HDET 高频指标显示 5 月 1-17 日出口或较 4 月回落，但上周降幅有所 改善。地产方面，44 城新房成交面积同比从前一周的 14.4%回落至 ...

宏观 关税压力暂缓后关注经济数据变化 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 18 日│中国内地 海外周报 研究员 易峘 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 证券研究报告 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 研究员 胡李鹏，PhD SAC No. S0570525010001 SFC No. BWA860 hulipeng@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 陈玮 SAC No. S0570524030003 SFC No. BVH374 chenwei023580@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 赵文瑄 SAC No. S0570124030017 zhaowenxuan@htsc.com 高频数据 高频数据显示美国消费回暖，劳动力市场仍有韧性，住房需求偏弱。增长方 面，亚特兰大联储 GDP Now 指示美国二季度实际 GDP 增速 2.4%（剔除 黄金影响后为-0.1%）。消费方面，上周实际个人消费的 Nowcast 上升至 3.7%。就业市场方面，首申人数持平于前值的 22.9 万人， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a notable improvement in passenger load factors, with April's load factor increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 84.3% year-on-year, driven by a 7.8% increase in capacity [1][2]. - Revenue management strategies are beginning to show positive results, with domestic ticket prices increasing by 11.5% during the week of May 5-11 [1][4]. - The supply growth in the aviation sector is expected to remain low, which, combined with effective revenue management, suggests a potential for improved profitability for airlines throughout the year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - The three major airlines reported a load factor increase of 3.1 percentage points to 84.0% in April, with domestic routes showing a 3.9 percentage point increase to 85.3% [2][10]. - Spring Airlines experienced a decline in load factor by 2.5 percentage points to 88.2%, while Juneyao Airlines showed a strong performance with a load factor increase of 2.9 percentage points to 86.2% [3][10]. Capacity and Revenue - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) for the three major airlines and Spring Airlines increased by 7.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in capacity [10]. - Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) also rose by 11.5%, reflecting a strong demand recovery [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the supply-demand structure will continue to improve, leading to a favorable environment for revenue management and profitability enhancement during the peak summer travel season [4][21]. - The expected low supply growth, coupled with rising ticket prices, is likely to support airlines' earnings recovery [1][4]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several airlines, including China National Aviation (601111 CH), China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), with target prices set at 10.20, 5.15, and 69.10 respectively [20][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][26]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 7% year-on-year to 28.8 billion RMB, exceeding consensus expectations by 1% [1]. - Game and value-added services revenue grew by 12% year-on-year to 24 billion RMB, with PC game revenue significantly outperforming expectations, increasing by 85% year-on-year [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 32% year-on-year to 11.2 billion RMB, surpassing expectations by 19% due to improved expense management [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company expects Q2 and full-year 2025 PC game revenue to grow by 60% and 40% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The gross margin for game and value-added services improved to 68.8%, driven by the high margin of new game releases [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised to 39.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 4.7% increase from previous estimates [4][22]. Game Releases and Market Performance - The new game "Marvel: Clash" is anticipated to become a long-term revenue generator, with an average of 120,000 concurrent players on Steam in April [1][2]. - The mobile game "Seven Days World" launched globally on April 24, achieving top rankings in 166 countries, although its revenue contribution remains limited [3][15]. - The report highlights the potential of upcoming titles such as "Destiny: Rise" and "Infinite" in the second half of the year [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 1%, 2.4%, and 4.2%, respectively, primarily due to increased contributions from PC games [4][22]. - The adjusted net profit for 2026 and 2027 is forecasted to be 42.9 billion RMB and 47.9 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a growth trajectory [4][22]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 148.25 USD, corresponding to a 17.2x PE ratio for 2025 [7][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 29.65 [7][12]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 revenue of RMB 72.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.7 billion, up 264% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the new car cycle driven by the GEA platform, with strong sales of new models like the Xingyao 8, which is projected to sell over 8,000 units monthly [4][12]. - The proposed privatization of Zeekr by Geely aims to enhance internal integration and reduce inefficiencies, potentially increasing group efficiency by over 5% and improving R&D and management efficiency by 15-20% [3][12]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company sold 700,000 new vehicles, a 48% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.8%, reflecting improvements in cost management [2][5]. - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 344.4 billion, RMB 370.8 billion, and RMB 422.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 13.8 billion, RMB 15.5 billion, and RMB 19.4 billion for the same years [6][12]. - The report indicates an expected EPS of RMB 1.37, RMB 1.53, and RMB 1.92 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 20x for 2025 [5][12]. Market Outlook - The company is set to launch several new models, including the Lynk & Co Z10 and Zeekr 9X, which are anticipated to enhance revenue and profitability [4][12]. - The report highlights the importance of the GEA platform in driving profitability and operational efficiency, suggesting a positive outlook for the company's future performance [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4][11] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 1.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 58%, significantly exceeding the upper guidance of 50.8% [1] - The operating profit for Q1 2025 was approximately 34.8 million RMB, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit reached approximately 140 million RMB, well above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 70 million RMB, driven by rapid growth in core business and improved operational efficiency through AI [1][3] - The company announced a new share repurchase plan with a total amount of 100 million USD to enhance shareholder returns [1] Revenue and Growth Projections - K12 business accounted for about 85% of total revenue in Q1, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 80% [2] - Traditional learning services grew over 35% year-on-year, while new quality education services achieved triple-digit growth for four consecutive quarters [2] - The company expects Q2 total revenue to grow by 28.5% to 30.5% year-on-year, with traditional learning services projected to see a slight increase of around 10% due to seasonal effects [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit margin of 9.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [3] - The reduction in sales, R&D, and management expense ratios by 6.0, 5.9, and 0.3 percentage points respectively contributed to enhanced operational efficiency [3] - For the full year, the company anticipates a significant narrowing of losses, projecting a non-GAAP operating loss of approximately 350 million RMB, a reduction of nearly 70% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are maintained at 5.726 billion RMB, 7.244 billion RMB, and 8.589 billion RMB respectively [5][11] - Non-GAAP operating profit forecasts are projected at -350 million RMB for 2025, 58 million RMB for 2026, and 143 million RMB for 2027 [5][11] - The target price is set at 4.84 USD, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.5x for 2025 [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $11.41 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance showed revenue of 1.3 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 6.7%, while operating profit reached 100 million RMB, a significant increase of 247.7%, marking a historical high for Q1 [1]. - The "AI-native" strategy is driving continuous improvement in profitability, focusing on high-demand scenarios and accelerating the commercialization of AI capabilities in education and marketing [1]. - The company is expected to achieve an operating profit of 216 million RMB for the full year 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 45% due to accelerated AI commercialization and ongoing cost reduction measures [3]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, the company's learning services, smart hardware, and online marketing businesses generated revenues of 602 million RMB, 190 million RMB, and 505 million RMB, respectively, with learning services experiencing a year-over-year decline of 16.1% [2]. - The AI enrollment planner has been upgraded, leading to an increase in renewal rates, while AI subscription services saw sales of nearly 70 million RMB, with a growth rate exceeding 40% [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - The operating profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8%, with significant reductions in sales, R&D, and management expenses, which decreased by 21%, 21%, and 25% year-over-year, respectively [3]. - The report anticipates that the company's profitability will continue to improve as it implements further cost optimization strategies [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 173 million RMB, 243 million RMB, and 343 million RMB, respectively [4]. - Using the SOTP valuation method, the company is assigned a PE of 23.22x for K12 business and 26.69x for smart hardware, with a target price adjustment to $11.41 based on comparable company valuation changes [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $27.02 [6][22]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 42% year-on-year to RMB 23.3 billion in Q1, exceeding consensus expectations by 4% [1][11]. - The growth in revenue was driven by substantial increases in the new home and renovation segments, with new home revenue rising 64% and renovation revenue increasing 22% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company anticipates that the renovation business will achieve breakeven profitability in Q2, supported by improved operational efficiency and AI tools [2][12]. Financial Performance - In Q1, the gross profit margin decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 20.7%, primarily due to a rise in fixed salary costs [1][4]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was RMB 1.4 billion, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1][4]. - The company expects adjusted net profits to rise to RMB 82 billion, RMB 99 billion, and RMB 119 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, driven by operational leverage and AI efficiency improvements [4][18]. Business Segments - The existing home segment saw a revenue increase of 20% year-on-year, with a gross transaction value (GTV) growth of 28% [2][11]. - The new home segment outperformed expectations with a GTV increase of 53%, while the renovation segment's GTV also showed strong growth [2][11]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance efficiency across its operations, with significant improvements in transaction conversion rates reported [3][13]. Market Position - The company continues to outperform the broader real estate market, with its GTV growth of 34% in Q1 compared to the national average of 16% for existing homes [11][12]. - The report highlights the company's expanding market share in the existing home sector, supported by improved agent productivity and AI-driven tools [3][11]. Valuation - The target price of $27.02 corresponds to a 27x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, which is above the industry average of 24.7x [4][22]. - The report indicates that the company's valuation premium is justified by its superior growth prospects compared to the overall real estate market [22][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company's core business performance remains robust, with Q4 FY25 total revenue reaching 236.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 7.2% [1] - Adjusted EBITA for Q4 FY25 was 32.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.1%, aligning closely with market expectations [1] - The company's cloud business revenue grew by 17.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations of 16.9% [1] - The management expresses confidence in the continued acceleration of cloud revenue growth due to strong demand and ongoing iterations of AI model supply [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 FY25, Taobao's revenue increased by 8.7% to 101.4 billion RMB, outperforming the consensus expectation of 4.9% [2] - The adjusted EBITA profit for Taobao was 41.7 billion RMB, up 8.4% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in high-margin revenue streams [2] - The company anticipates continued commercial capability release in FY26, supported by improved penetration rates and commission rate increases [2] Cloud Business - Alibaba Cloud's revenue for Q4 FY25 increased by 17.7%, with external revenue also growing by 17% [3] - The adjusted EBITA profit margin rose to 8.0%, despite a slight decline due to increased investments in AI and cloud infrastructure [3] - Management noted that AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong demand [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The FY26 and FY27 non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards by 5.2% and 4.1% to 171.0 billion RMB and 199.3 billion RMB, respectively, with a new FY28 forecast introduced at 215.8 billion RMB [4][16] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 189.6 USD for US shares and 185.1 HKD for Hong Kong shares, corresponding to 18.7, 16.1, and 14.9 times the FY26-28 non-GAAP forecast PE [4][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 1.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 58%, significantly exceeding the upper guidance of 50.8% [1]. - The operating profit for Q1 2025 was approximately 34.8 million RMB, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached approximately 140 million RMB, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations of 70 million RMB, driven by rapid growth in core business and improved operational efficiency through AI [1]. - The company announced a new share repurchase plan with a total amount of 100 million USD to enhance shareholder returns [1]. Revenue Growth and Business Segments - K12 business accounted for about 85% of total revenue in Q1, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 80%, while traditional learning services grew over 35% [2]. - The new quality education business has achieved triple-digit growth in revenue for four consecutive quarters [2]. - The company expects Q2 total revenue to grow year-on-year by 28.5% to 30.5%, with traditional learning services projected to see a slight increase of around 10% due to seasonal effects [2]. Operational Efficiency and Profitability - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit margin of 9.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant improvement in operational efficiency [3]. - Key factors contributing to profitability include increased utilization of offline teaching locations and AI-enabled refined user flow management, leading to improved user conversion and operational efficiency [3]. - For the full year, the company anticipates a significant reduction in losses, projecting a non-GAAP operating loss of approximately 350 million RMB, which is expected to decrease by nearly 70% year-on-year [3]. Financial Projections - The revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are maintained at 5.726 billion RMB, 7.244 billion RMB, and 8.589 billion RMB, respectively [4][11]. - Non-GAAP operating profit forecasts are projected at -350 million RMB for 2025, 58 million RMB for 2026, and 143 million RMB for 2027 [4][11]. - The target price is set at 4.84 USD, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.5x for 2025 [4][11].