证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，金价再创新高 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 呼和浩特发布育儿补贴细则，利好母婴消费品 3 月 13 日，内蒙古呼和浩特卫健委发布落实《关于促进人口 集聚推动人口高质量发展的实施意见》育儿补贴项目实施细 则及服务流程。发放育儿补贴实施细则如下：生育一孩一次 性发放育儿补贴 10000 元；生育二孩发放育儿补贴 50000 元， 按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 5 周岁；生育三孩及以上发 放育儿补贴 100000 元，按照每年 10000 元发放，直至孩子 10 周岁。 据中国政府网、财联社，2025 年政府工作报告中明确提出， 制定促进生育政策，发放育儿补贴；3 月 7 日，国家卫健委主 任雷海潮指出，今年将发放育儿补贴，国家卫健委正在会同 有关部门，起草相关的育儿补贴的操作方案。育儿补贴政策 的出台是提振生育率的重要举措，我们认为未来地方育儿补 贴政策有望持续出台，利好母婴消费品，相关受益标的包括 孩子王、爱 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 03 月 15 日 居民中长期贷款余额下滑的同时，地产表观销售数据却在同比回升，2 月期间 30 大中城市累计销售面积达 到 528万方，同比多增 125万方。数据相冲的背后，潜在原因或为全国层面的销售情况弱于重点城市，居民买房 首付比例较高等。总体而言，居民的长期负债意愿仍然较弱。 2 月信贷弱于过去两年同期。然而，如果仅观察 2 月数据，对比过去两年同期，由于 2024 年 2 月期间央行 强调信贷数据"挤水分"，当年 2 月新增贷款规模较 2023 年同期大降 3600 亿元，而今年 2 月新增贷款规模在此 基础上同比再降 4400 亿元，指向今年 1 月信贷的增长可能源自银行主动增加投放，可能透支了 2 月信贷需求。 1-2 月社融的扩张，主要由政府债拉动。往年在两会之前，地方政府主要发行地方债提前批额度，根据前一 年限额确定，且年初国债发行量较低，使得年初政府债净融资分项对新增社融的支撑作用有限。今年两万亿元化 债额度的使用，推高了年初地方债发行量，从而推升社融读数。从统计结果来看，1-2 月化债专项债合计发行 9542 亿元，带动 ...

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 配置保险：攻守兼备 [Table_Title2] 保险Ⅱ 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 3 月 14 日，保险板块表现强劲。截至收盘，A 股保险指数收涨 5.44%，其中天茂集团和新华保险均涨停； 中国太保、中国人寿、中国人保、中国平安分别上涨 7.71%、5.83%、5.26%、4.56%。与此同时，港股保险股也 迎来大涨。 分析与判断: ► 负债端改善信号显现。 新华保险、太保寿险公告保费数据，今年前 2 个月累计原保费收入分别同比增长 29.1%、9.1%，相比去年 同期增速显著改善。与此同时，根据中国基金报，近期新华保险、人保财险等多家保险机构积极接入 DeepSeek 大模型，利用 AI 技术优化营销推广、客户沟通和智能理赔等流程，用户体验和业务效率有望提升。 负债端成本下降趋势下，资产端"利差损"压力缓解。根据金监局及财联社报道，监管层自 2023 年起持续 引导行业下调保险产品预定利率，普通型人身险预定利率从 3.5%逐步降至 2.5%，分红险和万能险 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The central bank has maintained a net withdrawal of funds, resulting in a stable liquidity environment. From March 10 to 14, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 191.7 billion yuan, with the reverse repurchase balance decreasing to 526.2 billion yuan. Despite this, funding rates remained stable, with R001 fluctuating between 1.77% and 1.81% and R007 showing minimal weekly fluctuation [1][10][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Central Bank Operations - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations have been reduced, leading to a stable liquidity situation. The average daily net lending from the banking system decreased to 1.85 trillion yuan, down from 2.26 trillion yuan the previous week. The decline was primarily due to the performance of joint-stock banks, while large state-owned banks continued to increase their lending [1][10][13]. 2. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to March 17-21, despite the tax period, liquidity is expected to remain stable due to the central bank's supportive stance. Historical data indicates that the impact of the tax period on liquidity is generally moderate in March [2][10]. 3. Open Market Operations - For the week of March 17-21, over 1 trillion yuan in government bonds is set to mature, with a total of 10,332 billion yuan in maturities expected. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations will also see significant maturities during this period [3][30][31]. 4. Bill Market - The 1-month bill rate has decreased to 1.48%, while the 3-month and 6-month rates have increased slightly. Large banks have continued to purchase bills, with a net purchase of 30.6 billion yuan during the week of March 10-14 [4][34][35]. 5. Government Bonds - The net payment for government bonds from March 17-21 is projected to be 109.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous week's 260.9 billion yuan. The planned issuance for this period is 324.07 billion yuan [5][38][39]. 6. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The total maturity pressure remains high, with 7,337 billion yuan in certificates of deposit maturing during the week of March 10-14. The weighted average issuance rate for these deposits has slightly increased to 2.05% [6][42][50].

Global Market Overview - The report highlights increased concerns over a "Trump recession" and "stagflation" due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariffs and trade policies, leading to significant market volatility globally [1][4] - Major global markets experienced notable fluctuations, with the US stock market showing a significant pullback in the first half of the week followed by a rebound in the latter half [1][4] - The TAMAMA Technology Index fell by 2.62%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index decreased by 0.67%, indicating a downward trend in technology stocks [1][4] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all recorded declines of 2.27%, 2.43%, and 3.07% respectively during the week [11][4] - The S&P 500's Shiller PE ratio stands at 35.21, which, despite a slight decrease, remains significantly above historical averages, suggesting high valuations across various sectors [1][4] - The report notes that sectors such as finance, consumer goods, healthcare, and industrials may face pressure due to high valuations [1][4] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all experienced declines of 1.12%, 0.4%, and 0.27% respectively [18][4] - The Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 2.59%, reflecting a broader trend of pullbacks in technology stocks [18][4] - The report suggests that certain sectors within the Hong Kong market, such as technology and healthcare, may present mid-term structural opportunities due to low valuations and fundamental support [30][4] Economic Data Insights - The US Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March 2025 was reported at -2.7, significantly lower than the previous value of 21.2, indicating a decline in investor sentiment [36][4] - The report also notes that the US CPI year-on-year growth rate for February 2025 was 2.8%, down from 3%, and the core CPI growth rate was 3.1%, down from 3.3% [31][4]

- The report uses the Mahalanobis distance to measure industry crowding by analyzing the price and trading volume changes of industry indices over the past week[3][15] - The first quadrant represents industries with rising prices and volumes, while the third quadrant represents industries with falling prices and volumes. Points outside the ellipse indicate industries with a price and trading volume deviation confidence level exceeding 99%, signifying short-term significant crowding[15] - Last week, the beauty care and food & beverage industries showed significant trading crowding[3][16]

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0310-0314） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年3月15日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年3月14日 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 15.59 5 10 15 20 25 ...

[Table_Title] 极地黄金 2024 年黄金产/销量同比增加 7%/11%至 93.37 吨/96.64 吨，2025 年黄金产量预计为 77.76- 80.87 吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►生产经营情况 1、2024H2 2024 H2 黄金产量为 152.9 万盎司（47.56 吨），同比增加 12%，环比增加 4%。 2024 H2 黄金销量为 185 万盎司（57.54 吨），同比增加 19%，环比增加 47%。这一增长主要是由于 Natalka 和 Kuranakh 的产量增加，以及之前积累的黄金（主要以含锑浮 选精矿的形式）的计划销售。 2024 H2 集团单位黄金总现金成本比 2024H1 下降了 16%，降至 355 美元/盎司。这主要是由于成本较低的浮选精 矿在已售黄金总量中所占份额增加，以及 Olimpiada 销售富含 锑的浮选精矿带来的副产品收益增加（2024 年下半年为每盎 司 65 美元，而 2024 年上半年为每盎司 6 美元）以及卢布 贬值。上述积极因素被 MET 上涨（由于平均实现金价上涨、 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [12]. Core Insights - The overall market performance on March 13 showed a weak trend, with major indices declining except for the dividend sector, which rose by 1.01% [2]. - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with long-term interest rates rising significantly towards the end of the trading day [3]. - The sentiment in the bond market remains fragile, with a lack of clarity regarding the pricing anchor for long-term rates, leading to significant divergence in market expectations [4][5]. - The equity market saw a notable correction, with the total trading volume decreasing by 772 billion compared to the previous day, indicating a decline in risk appetite among leveraged funds [6]. - Southbound capital flows faced challenges, with a significant drop in net inflows compared to previous days, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On March 13, the stock market showed a general decline, with the ChiNext index dropping by 2.11% and the Hang Seng Technology index falling by 1.67% [2]. - The bond market saw a mixed performance, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields decreasing by 3.0 basis points and 2.5 basis points, respectively [2]. Bond Market Analysis - The bond market's emotional state is weak, with long-term interest rates lacking a clear pricing anchor, leading to significant market divergence [4]. - The report indicates that the market has not established a consistent pricing anchor since mid-2024, complicating the determination of reasonable term spreads [5]. Equity Market Analysis - The overall A-share market declined by 0.87%, with small-cap stocks experiencing larger drops, indicating a structural adjustment in market dynamics [6]. - The technology sector faced significant corrections, with the AIGC index and robotics index dropping by 2.45% and 4.09%, respectively [6]. Capital Flows - Southbound capital flows showed a decrease in net inflows, with only 55 billion net inflow recorded, a significant drop from previous high levels [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [3]. Core Views - The acquisition of Guizhou Weidun Crystal Phosphorus will enhance the company's presence in the high-purity electronic materials sector, further solidifying its business layout in the semiconductor field [1]. - Weidun Crystal Phosphorus is a leading domestic supplier of high-end semiconductor materials, with established relationships with major clients, contributing to the domestic substitution trend [2]. - The acquisition is expected to strengthen the company's electronic materials business, improve its overall performance, and align with its strategic development goals [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2000, focuses on high-purity process systems and semiconductor wet cleaning equipment, providing solutions for various advanced manufacturing sectors [14]. - The main products include precursor materials and doping/oxidation materials, primarily used in diffusion and thin-film deposition processes [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Weidun Crystal Phosphorus is projected to achieve revenue of 249 million yuan and a net profit of 69.05 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 27.71% [2]. - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for 2024, estimated between 90 million and 135 million yuan, primarily due to increased R&D expenses and other non-recurring losses [3][6]. Acquisition Impact - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's electronic materials capabilities and contribute positively to its financial performance post-merger [3]. - The company has a history of investment in Weidun Crystal Phosphorus, indicating a strong relationship and a high degree of certainty regarding the acquisition [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 34.23 billion, 44.49 billion, and 56.64 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 30%, and 27% [8][21]. - The projected net profits for the same period are 1.11 billion, 3.48 billion, and 4.88 billion yuan, with significant growth expected in 2025 and 2026 [8][21]. Valuation Metrics - As of March 12, 2025, the company's stock price of 25.73 yuan corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 89, 28, and 20 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8][24].