Market Overview - On June 19, the market showed no significant negative news, but both stocks and bonds adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3400 points and the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.65% [2] - The stock market exhibited strong defensive characteristics during the adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend down by 0.79%, 0.82%, and 0.65% respectively [2] - The technology sector in China remained supported, with the STAR 50 index only declining by 0.54%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology index fell sharply by 2.42% [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.84% [2] - The trading of 50-year government bonds became active, with yields on new bonds declining by approximately 13 basis points since May 29, indicating a significant interest in long-duration bonds [6] - The market is exploring structural opportunities due to a lack of a main trend, with the 20-year and 50-year bonds becoming targets for yield spread extraction [6] International Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25-4.50% during the June meeting, with a more hawkish internal view, as the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7 [3] - Following the Fed's decision, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, although the adjustments were manageable, with neither yield breaking through 4.40% and 4.90% respectively [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices, with gold prices entering a phase of fluctuation and decline, settling around 3370 USD per ounce [3] Domestic Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to provide support, with a net injection of 842 billion yuan through reverse repos, despite a slight increase in funding rates [4] - The current funding rates indicate a marginal increase, with overnight rates closing at 1.60-1.65% [4] - The market's liquidity situation is expected to stabilize, with the potential for further net injections from the PBOC [4] Equity Market Trends - The overall equity market experienced a significant decline, with the Wind All A index down by 1.20% and a trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a 591 billion yuan increase from the previous day [7] - The decline in the market is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, which has heightened risk aversion among investors [7][8] - Despite the overall downturn, there remains a focus on technology sectors, with robotics and semiconductor stocks showing temporary gains [8]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in financial performance for Ball Corporation in Q1 2025, with net sales reaching $3.097 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.5% and a year-on-year growth of 7.8% [1][8] - The cost of sales for Q1 2025 was $2.493 billion, which represents an 8.9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 9.2% increase year-on-year [1][8] - The pre-tax profit for Q1 2025 was $229 million, showing a remarkable quarter-on-quarter increase of 3171.4% and a year-on-year increase of 126.7% [1][8] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was $179 million, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 496.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 95.1%, primarily due to the sale of the aerospace business in the previous year [1][8] Financial Performance by Region - North and Central America beverage packaging segment reported comparable operating profit of $195 million and sales of $1.463 billion in Q1 2025, compared to $192 million and $1.403 billion in Q1 2024, indicating growth driven by increased sales volume and pricing/product mix [2][9] - EMEA beverage packaging segment achieved comparable operating profit of $96 million and sales of $903 million in Q1 2025, up from $85 million and $810 million in Q1 2024, with growth in shipment volume and pricing/product mix, partially offset by currency effects [2][9] - South America beverage packaging segment reported comparable operating profit of $69 million and sales of $544 million in Q1 2025, compared to $55 million and $482 million in Q1 2024, reflecting positive performance [2][9] Outlook - The company plans to continue assessing the evolving trade landscape and its impact on business, believing that the direct effects of announced tariffs are manageable [6] - The company is actively collaborating with customers to mitigate the impact of aluminum price fluctuations and emphasizes local sourcing and production to reduce exposure to international trade volatility [6] - While the broader indirect effects of tariffs remain uncertain, the company currently does not foresee significant impacts on Q2 performance [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that Metro Mining achieved a record shipment of 184,000 wet tonnes of bauxite in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% to 1,096,600 tonnes in April-May 2025 [1][2] - The operational season was extended due to the benefits from the 2024 expansion project, which included the Ikamba floating terminal designed for safe loading in higher sea conditions [1][2] - In April 2025, Metro's shipment reached 424,700 wet tonnes, a 12.2% increase year-on-year, while May 2025 saw shipments of 671,900 wet tonnes, up 26% from May 2024 [3] - The company is on track to meet its 2025 shipment target of 6.5 to 7 million wet tonnes [3] Production and Operational Performance - Q1 2025 shipment volume reached 184,000 tonnes, marking a record for the Bauxite Hills rainy season [1] - A large-scale maintenance plan was successfully completed during the rainy season, including upgrades to loading systems and automation of the plant [2] - Approximately 80% of Metro's sales volume is negotiated quarterly, with expected offshore prices in Q2 2025 rising about 20% compared to Q4 2024 [2] Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, Metro's cash position was AUD 12.2 million [4] - The total secured debt financing amounts to USD 56.6 million, with USD 5.2 million drawn in the current quarter [4] - Metro has implemented a currency hedge with a nominal value of USD 50 million at an average exchange rate of AUD 0.68 per USD [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25-4.5% and paused rate cuts, indicating a preference for "higher for longer" monetary policy[3] - The dot plot shows that 7 out of 19 committee members expect no rate cuts this year, while 8 anticipate two cuts, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards maintaining rates[5] - The Fed's economic forecasts for GDP in 2025 and 2026 were downgraded by 30bp and 20bp to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, indicating concerns about stagflation[4] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Core PCE inflation forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were raised by 30bp, 20bp, and 10bp to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1%, respectively, highlighting inflationary pressures[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to increase PCE by approximately 0.5-0.6 percentage points, as tariffs raise import prices and domestic substitutes[4] - The labor supply is expected to decrease due to immigration restrictions, further limiting growth potential[4] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The Fed's dot plot predicts a policy rate of 3.6% by the end of 2026, up from 3.4% in March, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts[6] - Market speculation suggests that the next Fed chair may be more dovish, potentially undermining the current "higher for longer" stance and risking a loss of Fed credibility[6] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic, employment, and inflation trends remains elevated, with potential risks from fiscal and tariff policies[9]

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 2025Q1 全国企业年金：规模稳增，首次公布 "近三年累计收益率"响应"长钱长投" [Table_Title2] 非银金融 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 事件概述: 人社部公布《2025 年一季度全国企业年金数据摘要》。截至 2025Q1 末，企业年金积累基金规模为 3.73 万 亿元，投资资产净值 3.70 万亿元，建立组合数 5,892 个，近三年累计收益率为 7.46%。 分析与判断: ► 企业年金规模稳步增长，长期收益亮眼。 企业年金规模稳步增长。截至 2025Q1 末，企业年金积累基金规模达到 3.73 万亿元，较 2024 年末增长 2.4%。其中，投资资产净值达 3.70 万亿元，较 2024 年底增长 2.6%。 企业年金长期收益亮眼。近三年（2022 年 4 月 1 日-2025 年 3 月 31 日）累计收益率达 7.46%。自 2007 年 以来，截至 2024 年，全国企业年金的年均收益率达 6.17%。其中，除 2008 年、2011 年、2022 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, maintaining the range at 4.25-4.5%[1] - The dot plot indicates a preference for two rate cuts within the year, which is more optimistic than market fears of only one cut[1] - The Fed is inclined to wait for economic uncertainties to resolve before making further decisions[2] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were downgraded by 30bp and 20bp to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively[3] - Core PCE inflation rate forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were raised by 30bp, 20bp, and 10bp to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1%[3] - Tariffs are expected to increase import prices, contributing to domestic inflation pressures[3] Group 3: Market Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts are around 48bp, with a possibility of only one cut if inflation continues to rise[4] - The dot plot shows a shift with more members supporting no rate cuts this year, indicating a cautious approach[4] - The uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy is expected to increase as the Fed's long-term projections are less reliable[5] Group 4: Leadership and Policy Implications - Concerns arise regarding the potential for a more dovish Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May 2026, which could undermine the Fed's independence[5] - If a new chair is influenced by the president, it may lead to a loss of credibility for the Fed and further depreciation of the dollar[5]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 18 日 存单的波动依然不大。1-19 日累计发行规模达到 2.5 万亿元之上，基本追平今年前五个月 2.8 万亿元的月 均值，与本月 4.2 万亿元的到期规模仅剩 1.7 万亿元左右的缺口。据 19 日的发行计划，1 个月国股行存单定价 在 1.60-1.62%，9 个月至 1 年期国股行品种定价在 1.63-1.65%，未体现出提价压力，季末银行负债端较为乐 观。 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：涨势依旧 现券交易主线继续围绕央行动态。早间陆家嘴会议开幕式上，央行宣布八项重磅金融政策，内容涉及面较 广，其中与债市关联性较高的政策是设立银行间市场交易报告库，高频汇集并系统分析银行间债券等金融子市场 交易数据。类似操作在 2024 年已有预演，因此，政策出炉并未对市场定价产生过多影响。不过，市场满怀期待 的"央行重启买债"及"国债缴准"并未在会议上被提及，这也使得债市行情略有减速，各期限国债活跃品种多 小幅上行，利差保护较足的老券、政金债、地方债品种收益率反而延续了下行趋势。 | | | 复盘与思考: 6 月 18 日，股 ...

► 生产经营情况 2025Q1 原铝净成品产量为 396,866 吨，同比略降 2%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Title] 巴林铝业 2025Q1 铝产量为 39.69 万吨，实现利润 4820 万美元 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 18 日 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 尽管面临市场挑战，2025Q1 原铝销售量仍达到 374,809 吨，同 比增长 3%。 增值销售量（VAP）平均占总发货量的 71%，同比增长 5% （2025Q1 增值销售量为 265,657 吨，而 2024Q1 为 252,772 吨）。 e-Al Hassalah 节省了 3,090 万美元，而 2025 年的目标是 6,000 万美元。 ►财务业绩情况 2025Q1 利润为 1,810 万巴林第纳尔（4,820 万美元），同比下 降 25.9%，而 2024 年同期利润为 2,450 万巴林第纳尔（6,500 万美元）。公司 2025Q1 的基本和稀释后每股收益为 13 巴林第 纳尔，而 2024 年同期为 17 巴林第纳尔 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a 2% year-on-year increase in alumina production to 1.265 million tons and a 7% increase in electrolytic aluminum production to 298,000 tons in Q1 2025 [1] - The Worsley alumina plant produced 941,000 tons in Q1 2025, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, while Brazilian alumina production reached 324,000 tons, up 3.5% year-on-year [2][3] - The report indicates that the production targets for the fiscal year 2025 remain unchanged across various segments, including alumina and electrolytic aluminum [1][3][4] Production and Sales Summary - Worsley alumina sales were 910,000 tons, a 2% increase year-on-year, while Brazilian alumina sales were 323,000 tons, a 17% increase year-on-year [2][3] - Brazilian electrolytic aluminum production was 36,000 tons, a 38.5% increase year-on-year, while sales were 31,000 tons, a 3% decrease year-on-year [3] - Hillside electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.3% year-on-year to 175,000 tons, with sales down 18% year-on-year to 171,000 tons [4][5] - Mozal electrolytic aluminum production increased by 22.5% year-on-year to 87,000 tons, with sales down 18% to 72,000 tons [5][9] Financial Performance - The company reported a net cash increase of $299 million, reaching $252 million, attributed to strong operational performance and the release of working capital [16] - The company received $100 million from a subsidiary of Newmont related to an agreement with Worsley Alumina, which is expected to contribute approximately $94 million in pre-tax earnings for the fiscal year 2025 [16][17] - The company has completed 94% of its $2.5 billion capital management plan, with $158 million expected to be returned to shareholders by September 12, 2025 [18][19] Project Development Updates - The Hermosa project saw an investment of $355 million in growth capital expenditures to advance the Taylor zinc-lead-silver project and Clark battery-grade manganese exploration [20] - The company invested $26 million in greenfield exploration opportunities across multiple countries, including Australia, the U.S., Canada, Argentina, Namibia, and Ireland [21] - An additional $48 million was invested in existing business and development exploration projects, with significant capital allocated to the Hermosa project [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is adjusting its fundraising project for the "Carbon Fiber and Heat Dissipation Precision Parts R&D and Production Project," increasing the total investment from 266 million to 743 million yuan to enhance production capacity and meet market demand [2] - A new fundraising project for "Key Components and Complete Machine Upgrading for Humanoid Robots" is introduced with an investment of 50 million yuan, aimed at enhancing R&D and system integration capabilities in high-end intelligent manufacturing [3] - The company has launched a 2025 Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) to attract and retain key talent, with a target of 26.4 million shares, representing 0.38% of the total share capital [4][7] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 50.141 billion, 59.080 billion, and 69.267 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.42%, 17.83%, and 17.24% respectively [8] - The projected net profit for the same period is 2.500 billion, 3.403 billion, and 4.193 billion yuan, with growth rates of 42.58%, 36.10%, and 23.23% respectively [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.36, 0.49, and 0.60 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 50.141 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.500 billion yuan and a gross margin of 16.9% [10] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22.99x, 16.89x, and 13.71x respectively [10] - The company aims for a net profit growth rate of not less than 10%/20%/30% for the years 2025-2027 compared to 2024 [7]