交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 23 日 今日焦点 | 第四范式 | | | | 6682 HK | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 季度核心先知 | AI | 平台加速增长，费用优化或 | 评级: 买入 | | 拉动 2025 | | 年实现盈利 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 | | 47.45 | 目标价: 港元 64.00 | 潜在涨幅: +34.9% | | 谷馨瑜, CPA | | | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 1 季度收入加速增长 30%至 10.8 亿元，其中先知 AI 平台/SHIFT 智能解决 方案/式说 AIGS 服务收入分别同比+61%/-15%/-22%，先知 AI 平台占收比 提升至 74.8%。 AI agent 需求增长、产品迭代升级、多元化行业拓展共同推动先知 AI 平 台稳定增长。1 季度，先知平台进一步升级，集成 150+主流大模型及丰 富的 AI 应用矩阵。软件定义算力方面，升级 SageOne IA 一体机解决方 案，提升 GPU 利用率及推理性能。行业方面，除深耕优势领域外，进 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Lexin Group (LX US), with a target price of $11.80, indicating a potential upside of 36.1% from the current price of $8.67 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in asset quality and has increased its dividend payout ratio. The dividend payout ratio was raised from 20% to 25% in November 2024, with plans to further increase it to 30% starting in the second half of 2025 [6][8]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 reached 430 million RMB, marking a 113.4% year-on-year increase, attributed mainly to a decrease in provisioning expenses [6][7]. - The company maintains guidance for substantial profit growth in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.93 billion RMB, representing a 75% year-on-year increase [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 13,057 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 32.3%. However, a decline of 4.6% is expected in 2025 [5][13]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 1,100 million RMB, with a growth of 3.2% compared to 2023. The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 2,062 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a 71.4% increase [5][9]. - The company’s loan facilitation is projected to be 218 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3% [9][14]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The 90-day delinquency rate improved to 3.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, indicating better asset quality [6][7]. - The company has shifted towards a low-risk business model, with the light asset model accounting for 28% of loan facilitation in Q1 2025, up from 20% in Q4 2024 [6][7]. Market Position and Comparison - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately 1,149.56 million USD, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 49.48% [4][8]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $11.43 and a low of $1.62, showcasing significant volatility and potential for growth [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price of $99.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% from the current price of $85.48 [2][4][14]. Core Insights - Baidu's cloud business has significantly exceeded expectations, while the monetization of AI search is still anticipated to take time [2][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a total revenue of 32.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3%, surpassing market expectations by 5% [7]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 6.5 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 20%, also exceeding expectations [7]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the intelligent cloud segment, which grew by 42% year-on-year, contributing 26% to core revenue [7][8]. - Advertising revenue, however, declined by 6% year-on-year, impacted by the ongoing transformation of AI search [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: 134,598 million RMB in 2023, 133,125 million RMB in 2024, and an estimated 135,508 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a slight decline in 2024 [3][15]. - Net profit is projected to decrease from 28,747 million RMB in 2023 to 21,014 million RMB in 2025, indicating a significant drop [3][15]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in advertising revenue, projecting a 9% decrease for the full year 2025 [7][8]. - The cloud revenue growth rate is expected to be 30% for the year, up from a previous estimate of 20% [7][8]. Business Segments Performance - The core business revenue for Baidu is projected to be 104,712 million RMB in 2024 and 107,243 million RMB in 2025, with online marketing services expected to decline [9]. - The intelligent cloud segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenue estimates of 21,747 million RMB in 2024 and 27,941 million RMB in 2025 [9]. - The autonomous driving and new business segment is projected to reach 10,117 million RMB in 2024 and 13,247 million RMB in 2025, showing strong growth [9]. Valuation Metrics - The report notes that Baidu's current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 10.4 times for 2025 and an ex-cash P/E ratio of 6.3 times [7]. - The target price adjustment reflects a valuation based on a 3x sales multiple for Baidu's cloud business and an 8x P/E for traditional search advertising [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, iQIYI (IQ US), with a target price of $2.10, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of $1.71 [1][26]. Core Insights - The company's quarterly performance met expectations, with a focus on upgrading its content ecosystem by increasing investments in micro-dramas and user growth, which may temporarily impact short-term profits but is expected to enhance long-term competitiveness in user engagement [1][6]. - The report highlights the importance of micro-dramas in driving membership growth and the progress in monetization through advertising and e-commerce [1][6]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to RMB 1.1 billion and RMB 1.8 billion, respectively, due to anticipated increases in content and marketing expenditures [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, total revenue and adjusted operating profit were RMB 7.2 billion and RMB 460 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 58% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% and 13% [6][20]. - The company aims to enhance its content strategy by focusing on high-quality, shorter series and increasing the total number of projects to reduce reliance on single titles [6][20]. - The report projects total revenue for 2025 to be RMB 29.05 billion, with a slight decrease from previous estimates, and anticipates a gradual recovery in membership and advertising revenues in Q2 2025 [21][27]. Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set at RMB 29,053 million and RMB 30,138 million, respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of RMB 1,100 million and RMB 1,798 million [5][27]. - The report indicates a decline in gross profit margin from 25% in 2024 to 23% in 2025, reflecting increased content costs [5][27]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is expected to decrease from 7% in 2024 to 5% in 2025, highlighting the impact of rising operational costs [5][27]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - iQIYI continues to hold the largest share in long-form content viewership, supported by the release of popular series [6][20]. - The company has launched 15,000 micro-dramas, with plans to increase investment in high-quality original content to attract more users and explore additional monetization avenues [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the effectiveness of micro-dramas in driving membership growth and the overall progress in advertising and e-commerce monetization strategies [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 73.7% from the current closing price of HKD 77.55 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved quarter-on-quarter, and net losses have significantly narrowed, with expectations for a major product cycle in the second half of the year. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales increasing by 2.7% to 94,000 units [3][8]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3%, with expected deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles [3][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30.68 billion - 2024: RMB 40.87 billion - 2025E: RMB 86.17 billion - 2026E: RMB 113.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 125.49 billion - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion by 2026 and RMB 4.61 billion by 2027, with a significant reduction in net losses projected for 2025 [4][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is set to launch several new models, including the MONA M03 MAX and the new generation P7, which are expected to enhance sales and improve margins. The introduction of the Kunpeng super electric vehicle in Q4 2025 is anticipated to have a positive impact on gross margins [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong positioning among new energy vehicle manufacturers, with expectations for continued sales growth driven by new model launches and advancements in autonomous driving technology [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) [4][12]. Core Insights - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 66.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price of HKD 46.90 [1][12]. - The company has initiated an H-share placement to raise approximately HKD 796 million to support pipeline expansion and operations, which is expected to alleviate cash burn pressure significantly [7]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 showed a strong growth of 59.2% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of Taitasip and Vidisizumab [7]. - The report maintains expectations for continued loss reduction in 2025-2026, with a forecasted break-even point in 2027 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,076 million - 2024: RMB 1,710 million - 2025E: RMB 2,365 million - 2026E: RMB 3,331 million - 2027E: RMB 5,459 million - The net profit (loss) projections are: - 2023: (RMB 1,511 million) - 2024: (RMB 1,468 million) - 2025E: (RMB 800 million) - 2026E: (RMB 262 million) - 2027E: RMB 398 million [3][13]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2027, increasing by over 60% due to optimistic expectations for Taitasip's market performance [7][8]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at approximately RMB 33,799 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 66.00 [9]. - The projected revenue growth reflects a robust increase, with expected revenues reaching RMB 18,221 million by 2033 [9]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 225.69%, with a 52-week high of HKD 47.00 and a low of HKD 10.62 [6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 7.65 million shares [6]. Analyst Contact - The report includes contact information for analysts Ethan Ding and Gloria Zhuge for further inquiries [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $2.10, indicating a potential upside of 22.8% from the current price of $1.71 [1][26]. Core Insights - The company's quarterly performance met expectations, focusing on content ecosystem upgrades and increased investment in micro-drama content and user growth, which may temporarily impact short-term profits but is expected to enhance long-term competitiveness in user engagement [1][6]. - The report highlights the importance of micro-drama in driving membership growth and the progress in monetization through advertising and e-commerce [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 7.186 billion and an adjusted operating profit of RMB 459 million for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9% and 58%, respectively, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% and 13% [6][20]. - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to RMB 29.053 billion, with a slight decrease from previous estimates, while the adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 1.1 billion [1][27]. - The report anticipates stable membership and advertising revenue in Q2 2025, driven by the performance of popular content [6][21]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue composition includes paid memberships, online advertising, content distribution, and other income sources, with paid memberships expected to contribute RMB 17.693 billion in 2025 [1][27]. - The report indicates a focus on high-quality, shorter series and micro-dramas to diversify content offerings and reduce reliance on single titles [6][20]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its competitive position by increasing the quantity and quality of content, particularly through self-produced works and exploring new monetization avenues [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the strategic shift towards micro-dramas, with a current total of 15,000 micro-dramas available, split evenly between free and membership models [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) [4][12]. Core Insights - The target price for the company has been raised to HKD 66.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.7% from the current price of HKD 46.90 [1][12]. - The company has initiated an H-share placement to raise approximately HKD 796 million to support pipeline expansion and operations, which is expected to alleviate cash burn pressure significantly [7]. - The revenue for Q1 2025 showed a strong growth of 59.2% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of Taitasip and Vidisizumab [7]. - The report maintains expectations for continued loss reduction in 2025-2026, with a forecasted break-even point in 2027 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2023: 1,076 - 2024: 1,710 - 2025E: 2,365 - 2026E: 3,331 - 2027E: 5,459 - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 40.2% for 2023, 58.9% for 2024, 38.3% for 2025, 40.9% for 2026, and 63.9% for 2027 [3][13]. - The net profit (loss) is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 1,511 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 398 million by 2027 [3][13]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2027, increasing by over 60% due to optimistic projections for Taitasip's market performance [7]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of the company at approximately RMB 33,799 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 66.00 [9]. - The projected free cash flow is expected to turn positive by 2026, with a forecast of RMB 865 million [9]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 225.69% [6]. - The 52-week high and low for the stock are HKD 47.00 and HKD 10.62, respectively [6]. Analyst Coverage - The report is authored by analysts from BOCOM International, with contact details provided for further inquiries [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 73.7% from the current price of HKD 77.55 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin has improved quarter-on-quarter, and net losses have significantly narrowed, with expectations for a major product cycle in the second half of the year. In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 15.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1.8% quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle sales of 94,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.7% [3][8]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue to be between RMB 17.5 billion and RMB 18.7 billion, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.7% to 18.3%, with expected deliveries of 102,000 to 108,000 vehicles, indicating a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.5% to 14.9% [3][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30.68 billion - 2024: RMB 40.87 billion - 2025E: RMB 86.17 billion - 2026E: RMB 113.34 billion - 2027E: RMB 125.49 billion - The expected year-on-year growth rates are 14.2% for 2023, 33.2% for 2024, and 110.9% for 2025E [4][13]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.5 billion in 2026 and RMB 4.61 billion in 2027, with a significant reduction in net losses expected in the earlier years [4][13]. Product Development and Market Position - The company is set to launch several new models, including the MONA M03 MAX on May 28, which targets the market at the RMB 150,000 level, and the new generation P7 in Q3 2025. The company aims to enhance its product offerings and improve gross margins through these new launches [3][8]. - The company is also planning to introduce humanoid robots by 2026, which will be equipped with advanced AI capabilities, indicating a strategic move into the AI and robotics sector [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Lexin Group (LX US), with a target price of $11.80, indicating a potential upside of 36.1% from the current price of $8.67 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in asset quality and has increased its dividend payout ratio, which is expected to rise from 20% to 25% in November 2024, and further to 30% in the second half of 2025 [6][8]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 reached 430 million RMB, marking a 113.4% year-on-year increase, attributed mainly to a decrease in provisioning expenses [6][7]. - The report anticipates a substantial growth in net profit for 2025, projected at 1.93 billion RMB, representing a 75% year-on-year increase [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 13,057 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 32.3%. However, a decline of 4.6% is expected in 2025 [5][13]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 1,100 million RMB, with a slight increase to 1,927 million RMB in 2025 [5][13]. - The company’s net take rate improved to 1.58% in Q1 2025, reflecting a 27 basis points increase from the previous quarter [6][7]. Business Metrics - The company’s loan facilitation for Q1 2025 was 51.6 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 11% but stabilizing since Q2 2024 [6][7]. - The 90-day delinquency rate improved to 3.3%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating an overall enhancement in asset quality [6][7]. - The average loan balance for Q1 2025 was 107 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% [6][7]. Forecast Adjustments - The report has adjusted its forecasts for 2025, maintaining the loan facilitation estimate at 218 billion RMB, while increasing the net profit forecast to 1.93 billion RMB, up by 16.1% from previous estimates [9][10].