Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price adjusted from $165 to $135, indicating a potential upside of 31.1% from the current price of $102.98 [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue and gross profit impacted by tariff uncertainties affecting TEMU and rising short-term logistics costs. The mainland e-commerce advertising revenue growth met expectations, but net profit was below forecasts due to increased subsidies in response to national policies [3][7]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on profits in Q2 2025 due to these factors, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts by 9% and 25% respectively for 2025 [3][4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for a return to normalized profit levels by 2026, supported by strategic adjustments and merchant support plans [3][4]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised to RMB 449.83 billion, down from RMB 496.41 billion, reflecting a 9.4% decrease. For 2026 and 2027, revenue is expected to be RMB 556.01 billion and RMB 630.39 billion, respectively [4][15]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 104.83 billion, a 25.4% decrease from previous estimates, with further declines expected in 2026 and 2027 [4][15]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to decline from 28.5% in 2024 to 24.6% in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated thereafter [4][15]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights a significant drop in adjusted net profit for Q1 2025, which fell 45% year-on-year to RMB 16.92 billion, significantly below consensus estimates [7][8]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 57%, down from 62% in the previous quarter, indicating pressure on profitability [8][9]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $143.36 billion, with a year-to-date change of 6.18% [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Kuaishou (1024 HK), with a target price of HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.3% from the current price of HKD 48.75 [1][24]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance of Kuaishou met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 32.6 billion and RMB 4.6 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11% and 4% [5]. - The report highlights that Kuaishou's overseas operations have turned profitable, accelerating commercialization efforts [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with projected revenues of RMB 142.3 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [25]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: RMB 113.5 billion in 2023, RMB 126.9 billion in 2024, RMB 142.3 billion in 2025, RMB 155.6 billion in 2026, and RMB 168.2 billion in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 20.5%, 11.8%, 12.2%, 9.3%, and 8.1% [25]. - The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 10.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.5 billion in 2027, with significant growth in the coming years [25]. - The report notes that the adjusted net profit margin is projected to remain stable at around 14% for 2025, with a slight increase in profitability expected due to enhanced operational efficiencies [5][20]. Segment Performance - E-commerce GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) grew by 15% year-on-year, with a notable increase in daily active merchants [5]. - Online marketing revenue growth has slowed to 8%, primarily due to high base effects from previous periods and increased support for merchants [5]. - Live streaming revenue has resumed growth, increasing by 14% year-on-year, supported by a rise in contracted agencies and streamers [5]. Market Position - Kuaishou's market capitalization is approximately HKD 173.7 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 66.35 and a low of HKD 38.15 [4]. - The company has shown resilience in user engagement, with daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) maintaining growth trends [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Kuaishou (1024 HK), with a target price of HKD 64.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.3% from the current price of HKD 48.75 [1][24]. Core Insights - The first quarter performance of Kuaishou met expectations, with total revenue and adjusted net profit reaching RMB 32.6 billion and RMB 4.6 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11% and 4% [5]. - The report highlights that Kuaishou's overseas operations have turned profitable, accelerating commercialization efforts [2]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in e-commerce GMV and advertising revenue, with projections for the second quarter indicating a 14% year-on-year increase in e-commerce GMV and a 12% growth in advertising revenue [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: RMB 113.47 billion in 2023, RMB 126.90 billion in 2024, RMB 142.34 billion in 2025, RMB 155.56 billion in 2026, and RMB 168.17 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 11.8%, 12.2%, 9.3%, and 8.1% respectively [25]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from RMB 10.27 billion in 2023 to RMB 28.50 billion in 2027, with significant growth in the years 2024 and 2025 [25]. - The report notes that the adjusted net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 14% for 2025, maintaining similar levels to 2024 [5]. Segment Performance - E-commerce GMV grew by 15% year-on-year, with the MAU penetration rate at 19% and average spending per user increasing by 7% [5]. - Online marketing revenue growth has slowed to 8% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from external advertising and support for merchants [5]. - Live streaming revenue has resumed growth, increasing by 14% year-on-year, with a significant rise in the number of contracted agencies and streamers [5]. Valuation - The report maintains the 2025 profit expectation at RMB 20.3 billion, corresponding to an adjusted net profit margin of 14% [5]. - A valuation premium is applied due to Kuaishou's leading video generation capabilities and commercialization potential, with a target price based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [5].

Group 1: Meituan (3690 HK) - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan, with a target price adjusted to HKD 165.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the closing price of HKD 129.40 [1] - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with core business and new business revenues increasing by 18% and 19% respectively. The adjusted operating profit margin for the core business improved by 3.2 percentage points to 21% [1][2] - The report anticipates that increased competition in the food delivery sector may impact revenue and profit growth in Q2 2025, projecting a revenue growth of 4% for food delivery and 30% for flash purchase services [2] Group 2: Huya Group (YY US) - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huya Group, with a target price of USD 60.00, suggesting a potential upside of 29.9% from the closing price of USD 46.19 [3] - In Q1 2025, Huya's revenue was USD 490 million, a year-on-year decline of 12%. Live streaming revenue decreased by 20%, while non-live streaming revenue increased by 25%, raising its revenue share to 25% [3] - The report expects Huya's BIGO live streaming segment to stabilize and recover in Q2 2025, with advertising revenue anticipated to accelerate in growth [3] Group 3: China Power (2380 HK) - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power, with an increased target price of HKD 3.77, reflecting an 18.2% potential upside from the closing price of HKD 3.19 [6] - For the first four months of 2025, China Power's total electricity generation increased slightly by 0.3% year-on-year, with wind and solar power generation rising by 32.1% and 13.6% respectively [6] - The report notes that the domestic coal prices have dropped over 7% since the end of March 2025, leading to an expected improvement in the fire power price differential for the first half of the year [6]

| 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 276,745 | 337,592 | 388,895 | 436,083 | 472,495 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.8 | 22.0 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 8.3 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 23,253 | 43,772 | 47,005 | 60,350 | 68,671 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 3.71 | 7.00 | 7.58 | 9.73 | 11.08 | | 同比增长 (%) | 715.5 | 88.6 | 8.4 | 28.4 | 13.8 | | 前EPS预测值 (人民币) | | | 8.42 | 9.94 | 11.30 | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | -10.0 | -2.1 | -2.0 | | 市盈率 (倍) | 32.0 | 17.0 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 10.7 | ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 郑民康 wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1810 文昊, CPA | 电力 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 5 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 3.19 | 港元 3.77↑ | +18.2% | | | 中国电力 (2380 HK) | | | | | 上半年火电点火价差有望优于预期，目前股息率仍吸引；上调目标价 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2380 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 4.24 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 2.77 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 39,460.94 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 25.33 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 0.63 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 3.01 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | b ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 3.77, indicating a potential upside of 18.2% from the current price of HKD 3.19 [2][12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's coal-fired power price differential is expected to outperform expectations in the first half of the year, and the current dividend yield remains attractive. The target price has been raised due to adjustments in financial forecasts and valuation methods [2][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 44,262 million - 2024: RMB 54,213 million (22.5% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 55,711 million (2.8% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 59,410 million (6.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 65,201 million (9.7% YoY growth) [5][13] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,084 million - 2024: RMB 3,862 million (25.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 4,767 million (23.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 5,670 million (18.9% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 7,395 million (30.4% YoY growth) [5][13]. Operational Performance - The company's total power generation for January to April remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.3% YoY. Wind and solar power generation saw significant increases of 32.1% and 13.6% respectively, while coal power generation decreased by 14.2% due to asset sales [6][7]. - The report notes that the company plans to prioritize wind power projects with good grid connection resources before June, which is expected to support stable growth in overall power generation [6]. Valuation Adjustments - The report adjusts the valuation of the company's hydropower assets to 1.9 times the 2025 estimated book value, up from 1.5 times, leading to an increase in the target price to HKD 3.77 from HKD 3.51 [6][9]. - The report also notes a decrease in fuel costs for the coal-fired segment, which is expected to support profit forecasts [6]. Shareholder Confidence - The parent company has increased its stake in the company, indicating confidence in its future performance. The current dividend yield of 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026 is considered attractive for investors [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 165.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the current price of HKD 129.40 [1][4][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing competition in the food delivery market, but remains optimistic about Meituan's operational capabilities in this sector. The company is expected to enhance its market share despite the competitive landscape [2][7]. - Financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 388.9 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [3][16]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 47.0 billion, with a notable increase in earnings per share (EPS) to RMB 7.58, representing an 8.4% growth compared to the previous year [3][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: RMB 276.7 billion - 2024: RMB 337.6 billion - 2025E: RMB 388.9 billion - 2026E: RMB 436.1 billion - 2027E: RMB 472.5 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected to decline gradually from 25.8% in 2023 to 8.3% in 2027 [3][16]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: RMB 23.3 billion - 2024: RMB 43.8 billion - 2025E: RMB 47.0 billion - 2026E: RMB 60.4 billion - 2027E: RMB 68.7 billion - The net profit growth rate is expected to be particularly high in 2023 at 715.5%, tapering to 13.8% by 2027 [3][16]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: RMB 3.71 - 2024: RMB 7.00 - 2025E: RMB 7.58 - 2026E: RMB 9.73 - 2027E: RMB 11.08 - The EPS is expected to show a significant increase in 2024, followed by more moderate growth in subsequent years [3][16]. - Valuation Metrics: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 32.0 in 2023 to 10.7 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [3][16]. Business Segment Performance - Core Business: - The core local business is expected to generate substantial revenue, with a projected revenue of RMB 283.4 billion in 2025, growing at a rate of 10% year-on-year [10][16]. - New Business: - The new business segment is anticipated to grow at a rate of 22% in 2025, although it is expected to incur losses of approximately RMB 26 billion due to increased investments in overseas markets [7][10]. Market Position and Strategy - Meituan is expected to increase its investment in the food delivery segment to maintain its market share amidst rising competition. The report anticipates a mid-to-high single-digit growth in food delivery order volume [7][10]. - The company is also expanding its international presence, particularly in markets like Saudi Arabia and Brazil, with plans to invest USD 1 billion over the next five years [7][10].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 5 月 27 日 今日焦点 | 长城汽车 | 2333 HK | | --- | --- | | 新一轮产品周期有望推动销量上行，维持买入 | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 11.98 目标价: 港元 17.36 | 潜在涨幅: +44.9% | | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com | | 尽管长城汽车累计销量同比微降，但结构性优化与细分领域突破成为核 心亮点。高端化和智能化进程提速。 全球化布局方面，长城汽车出口布局升级，实现本地化生产和销售。我 们认为高端车型的占比提高和出口布局有望支持盈利增长。维持买入评 级和目标价 17.36 港元。 2024 年 9 月末以来，软件行业平均市销率（TTM）最高提升至 8.0 倍， 后受关税不确定性影响回调至 6.4 倍。 2024 年及 2025 年 1 季度，软件行业收入增速较 2023 年逐步回暖，利润 亦加速释放，显示行业结构性调整影响逐步缓和，预计未来 AI 普惠及行 业应用加速落地带动收入/利润继续回暖。考虑竞争持续，各公司表现或 将继续分化。 我们核心观点不变，软件企业毛利率与估值水 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that Tongcheng Travel's Q1 profits exceeded expectations by 8%, attributed to a cautious subsidy and investment strategy, with OTA business profit margins increasing by 7 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The expected revenue growth for the OTA segment in Q2 is projected at 14% year-on-year, with profit margins continuing to show an upward trend [1] - Domestic hotel night stays are expected to see a high single-digit growth year-on-year, with Average Daily Rate (ADR) turning positive and reduced subsidy rates driving revenue growth [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - The report has slightly adjusted its forecasts while maintaining a target price of HKD 25.50, indicating a potential upside of 24.4% from the current closing price of HKD 20.50 [1] - The main drivers for revenue growth in the second half of the year are anticipated to be the increase in night stays and ADR [1] - The vacation business has seen a decline in revenue due to strategic adjustments, but this has had a minimal impact on overall profits [1]