继峰股份（603997.SH）系列点评十七 2025Q1 格拉默扭亏为盈 业绩步入释放期 2025 年 04 月 12 日 ➢ 事件：公司披露控股子公司格拉默 2025Q1 业绩，实现收入 487.4 百万欧 元，同比+2.3%；净利润 9.7 百万欧元，扭亏为盈。 ➢ 2025Q1 格拉默扭亏为盈 业绩步入释放期。根据公告，格拉默 2025Q1 实 现收入 487.4 百万欧元、同比+2.3%，实现净利润 9.7 百万欧元、同比扭亏为盈、 同比提升 15.4 百万欧元，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 65.4 百万元、同 扭亏为盈、同比提升 106.8 百万元；考虑格拉默营业收入占公司集团收入的 70% 以上，我们预计公司集团层面 2025Q1 同样实现显著增长。格拉默业绩的释放， 主要得益于公司"Top 10"计划实施的重组措施正在逐步显现成效，此前公司针对 EMEA 地区产能做了针对性调整，以适应当地市场环境，且前瞻性与安贝格生产 基地达成劳资协议，也对业绩产生了积极的推动作用。我们看好格拉默重组措施 未来持续兑现成效，业绩步入释放期。此外格拉默董事会预计 2025 财年格拉默 营业收入达 19 亿欧 ...

煤炭周报 关税贸易冲突持续升级，稳定高股息价值再提升 2025 年 04 月 12 日 ➢ 关税贸易冲突持续升级，稳定高股息价值再提升。本周中美关税事件持续加 码导致多行业受损、A 股市场大幅波动。煤炭行业基本面来看，中美煤炭贸易主 要为我国进口美国煤炭，但总进口量中份额较低，2024 年仅占比 2.2%；其中以 炼焦煤为主，占炼焦煤总进口量的 8.7%。当前 125%关税对进口成本的巨幅提 升基本排除美国进口炼焦煤进入中国市场的可能性，但因国产低灰气肥煤可作为 近似替代且价格持续下移后性价比显现，贸易冲突对国内煤炭行业不仅影响较 小，同时或有助于国产炼焦煤市场份额提升。煤炭板块来看，贸易冲突升级，叠 加弱需求及国债收益率持续下行，板块高股息价值再度提升，高长协比例龙头标 的受益"稳盈利+低负债+高现金+高股息"属性防御价值凸显，同时在保障股东 回报基础上利用充沛现金低成本扩张，或在煤炭资源供给刚性下通过一级市场竞 拍保障资源接续，兼具中长期成长属性。本周中央汇金、中国诚通、中国国新等 相继宣布增持 A 股，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。据我们梳理，上述国有资本运 营平台近三年直接持股或纳入其指数体系的煤炭股基本 ...

石化周报 EIA 下调美国供给增速，油价或已触底 2025 年 04 月 12 日 ➢ 国际贸易背景扑朔迷离，油价大幅波动。4 月 2 日，特朗普宣布 4 月 5 日开 始对全球进口商品加征 10%的基准关税，并于 4 月 9 日开始对部分经济体征收 更高的税率，其中，对中国、欧盟加征税率为 34%、20%；4 月 4 日，中国回应 4 月 10 日开始对美进口商品同样加征 34%关税；4 月 7 日，欧盟回应计划对美 实施两轮关税反制，预计分别于 4 月 15 日和 5 月 15 日开始；4 月 8 日，美国 政府再次宣布对中加征关税，税率由 34%提高至 84%。4 月 9 日，中国宣布 4 月 10 日起同样将加征关税税率提高至 84%，同日，欧盟成员国投票通过首轮对 美关税反制措施，将对一系列美国产品征收高达 25%关税，主要针对美方钢铝， 并表示如果美国同意达成公平、平衡的谈判结果，反制措施可暂停。然而，4 月 10 日凌晨，特朗普再度表示，将对 75 个未对美国采取报复行动的国家暂停实施 "对等关税"计划 90 天，在此期间，这些国家对美出口商品的互惠关税将大幅 降低至 10%，此调整立即生效；与 ...

许继电气（000400.SZ）24 年年报及 25 年一季报点评 减值拖累 24 年业绩，盈利能力持续优化 2025 年 04 月 12 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 4 月 10 日，公司发布 24 年年报、25 年一季报。2024 年， 公司实现营收 170.9 亿元，同比+0.2%；归母净利润 11.2 亿元，同比+11.1%； 扣非归母净利润 10.61 亿元，同比+22.2%。单 24Q4，公司实现营收 75.0 亿元， 同比+20.4%，环比+172.8%；归母净利润 2.2 亿元，同比+13.9%，环比-16.7%； 扣非归母净利润 2.0 亿元，同比+31.6%，环比-22.0%。单 25Q1，公司实现营 收 23.5 亿元，同比-16.4%，环比-68.7%；归母净利润 2.1 亿元，同比-12.5%， 环比-6.6%；扣非净利润 2.0 亿元，同比-10.0%，环比+3.1%。 ➢ 减值对公司 24 年业绩拖累较大。24 年公司计提资产减值 5944 万元（占利 润总额比例 4.2%），信用减值计提 1.41 亿元（占利润总额比例 10%），减值损 失合计约 2 亿元。 ➢ 直流输电系统业务 ...

| 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 17,089 | 18,691 | 21,393 | 24,616 | | 增长率（%） | 0.2 | 9.4 | 14.5 | 15.1 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 1,117 | 1,491 | 1,807 | 2,279 | | 增长率（%） | 11.1 | 33.5 | 21.2 | 26.1 | | 每股收益（元） | 1.10 | 1.46 | 1.77 | 2.24 | | PE | 21 | 16 | 13 | 10 | | PB | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | ➢ 减值对公司 24 年业绩拖累较大。24 年公司计提资产减值 5944 万元（占利 润总额比例 4.2%），信用减值计提 1.41 亿元（占利润总额比例 10%），减值损 失合计约 2 亿元。 ➢ 直流输电系统业务高增，新能源系统集成业务结构优化。智能变配电板块， 24 年实现收入 47.11 亿元、同比+2.93%，毛 ...

煤炭周报 关税贸易冲突持续升级，稳定高股息价值再提升 2025 年 04 月 12 日 ➢ 关税贸易冲突持续升级，稳定高股息价值再提升。本周中美关税事件持续加 码导致多行业受损、A 股市场大幅波动。煤炭行业基本面来看，中美煤炭贸易主 要为我国进口美国煤炭，但总进口量中份额较低，2024 年仅占比 2.2%；其中以 炼焦煤为主，占炼焦煤总进口量的 8.7%。当前 125%关税对进口成本的巨幅提 升基本排除美国进口炼焦煤进入中国市场的可能性，但因国产低灰气肥煤可作为 近似替代且价格持续下移后性价比显现，贸易冲突对国内煤炭行业不仅影响较 小，同时或有助于国产炼焦煤市场份额提升。煤炭板块来看，贸易冲突升级，叠 加弱需求及国债收益率持续下行，板块高股息价值再度提升，高长协比例龙头标 的受益"稳盈利+低负债+高现金+高股息"属性防御价值凸显，同时在保障股东 回报基础上利用充沛现金低成本扩张，或在煤炭资源供给刚性下通过一级市场竞 拍保障资源接续，兼具中长期成长属性。本周中央汇金、中国诚通、中国国新等 相继宣布增持 A 股，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。据我们梳理，上述国有资本运 营平台近三年直接持股或纳入其指数体系的煤炭股基本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, specifically recommending China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) due to their strong fundamentals and dividend characteristics [4]. Core Insights - The EIA has significantly revised down its demand and U.S. production growth forecasts, indicating that $60 per barrel is a strong support level for U.S. supply [2][9]. - Global oil demand for 2025 is projected at 103.64 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.9 million barrels per day, but the growth rate has been revised down by 370,000 barrels per day [2][9]. - The report suggests that the current oil price of $60 per barrel is a clear bottom, supported by historical data and the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil production [2][9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Overview - The international trade environment is uncertain, leading to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude dropping below $60 per barrel and later rebounding above $65 per barrel [1][8]. Section 2: Supply and Demand Forecast - The EIA's April report shows a global oil supply surplus of 460,000 barrels per day for 2025, up from a previous surplus of 40,000 barrels per day, primarily due to a downward revision in demand growth [2][9]. - U.S. oil production growth has been revised down by 170,000 barrels per day, while OPEC's production growth has been adjusted upward by 130,000 barrels per day [2][9]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong production growth and low breakeven costs, such as CNOOC, CNPC, and Sinopec, as well as companies in the growth phase like New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum [2][9]. Section 4: Company Performance and Valuation - Key companies are projected to have stable earnings with attractive valuations, with CNOOC, CNPC, and Sinopec all rated as "Buy" based on their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.485 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.74%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 207 million yuan, up 3.10% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 203 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 12.26% [1]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and exploring new fields, with a focus on high-end manufacturing sectors such as bearings and robotics [3][4]. - The company has established stable partnerships with several well-known automotive parts suppliers, facilitating domestic substitution of imported components [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 411 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.08% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.92%. The net profit for the same period was 68 million yuan, up 7.57% year-on-year and 51.10% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.75%, a slight increase of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 27.35%, up 1.66 percentage points year-on-year and 2.18 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Production and R&D - The company sold 181,500 tons of precision stamping materials in 2024, marking an 11.74% increase year-on-year, while maintaining high capacity utilization [2]. - R&D expenses for 2024 were 61 million yuan, a 20.21% increase year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 4.12%, up 0.36 percentage points [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its production capacity to 180,000 tons by 2025, with a new plant in Anhui expected to add 40,000 tons of capacity [3]. - The establishment of a robotics materials research institute aims to innovate in key components for humanoid robots and other emerging applications [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 243 million, 295 million, and 351 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 29, 24, and 20 [5][10].

➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营收 14.85 亿元，同比 增长 9.74%；归母净利润 2.07 亿元，同比增长 3.10%；扣非归母净利 2.03 亿 元，同比增长 12.26%。2024Q4，公司实现营收 4.11 亿元，同比增加 1.08%、 环比增长 11.92%；归母净利润 0.68 亿元，同比增加 7.57%、环比增长 51.10%； 扣非归母净利 0.67 亿元，同比增加 16.28%、环比增长 51.59%。 ➢ 点评：销量稳步提升，加大研发投入 ① 精冲销量提升：2024 年公司精冲材料销量 18.15 万吨，同比增长 11.74%， 保持着极高的产能利用率，并通过产品结构调整、技术优化等手段优化扩充产能。 ② 毛利率小幅增长：2024 年，公司进行了订单结构优化，部分大客户的订单 量增长较快，整体毛利率为 25.75%，同比增长 0.39pct；Q4 毛利率为 27.35%， 同比增长 1.66pct，环比增长 2.18pct。 ③ 加大研发投入：2024 年，公司研发费用 0.61 亿元，同比增长 20.21%，研 发费用率 4.12%，同比增加 0.36 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 15.22 CNY based on its strong operational performance and growth potential [5]. Core Insights - The company has established a comprehensive integrated layout across the entire industrial chain, enhancing its operational performance and dividend potential. In 2023, the company's revenue reached 234.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.62% [1][2]. - The company’s refinery has a higher proportion of heavy oil feedstock (60%), yet it maintains a leading complexity and processing depth in the industry, thanks to advanced technologies such as ebullated bed hydrocracking [2][46]. - The profitability of the company's products is expected to improve continuously, particularly in the aromatics and polyester segments, driven by a decrease in supply growth and low inventory levels [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Refining and Chemical Platform - The company has developed a "one drop of oil to all things" business layout, expanding from its origins in textile manufacturing to a comprehensive petrochemical platform [10]. - The company’s revenue has shown steady growth, exceeding 234.9 billion CNY in 2023, with a significant contribution from refining products, which accounted for over 51% of total revenue [23][17]. - The company has a strong cash position, with 27.7 billion CNY in cash as of Q3 2024, and is expected to reduce capital expenditure intensity, enhancing its dividend potential [26][30]. 2. Refinery Efficiency and Cost Advantages - The company’s refinery demonstrates a higher conversion rate and cost advantages, with a significant portion of heavy oil feedstock processed efficiently [2][46]. - The application of ebullated bed hydrocracking technology has significantly enhanced the refinery's competitiveness, allowing for higher conversion rates of heavy oil into more valuable products [55][52]. - The integration of coal chemical projects provides additional cost advantages, supplying hydrogen and other chemicals to the refinery [58][65]. 3. Profitability Improvement and Domestic Substitution - The company is expanding into new materials, with a focus on high-performance resins and biodegradable materials, which are expected to enhance its product offerings and reduce reliance on bulk chemicals [67]. - The aromatics segment has a significant production capacity of 4.5 million tons per year, with potential for profitability recovery as downstream demand improves [68]. - The polyester segment is poised for profitability improvement due to a slowdown in supply growth and low inventory levels, which is expected to drive demand [81][76].