证券分析师 | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060516070001 | | | chenxiao397@pingan.com.cn | 前瞻性产业研究 2025 年 4 月 14 日 养老金融双周报（2025.04.07-2025.04.13） 关税冲击导致美国公共养老金大规模浮亏 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521110001 haobotao973@pingan.com.cn 石艺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070003 SHIYI262@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 本期重点：美国 25 大公共养老金浮亏1700 亿美元 第一，关税冲击美股市场，美国 25 大公共养老金浮亏约 1700 亿美元。 Equable Institute 发布报告，对特朗普关税政策落地后，美国公共养老金受 到的影响进行了测算。报告中，Equable Institute 将美国的公共养老金的主 要投资分为三大类资产进行讨论：公开市场股票、固收和私募、实物资产 和房地产。他们认为，4 月 3 日至 8 日，美国前 25 大州和地方养老金基金 损失达 1690 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strongly Recommended," indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 20% within the next six months [16]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company is strengthening its R&D efforts, which is expected to drive growth in overseas markets and AI applications, forming a second growth curve for the company [10]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, the company is positioned to recover as project verifications progress, and it is actively expanding its overseas business and AI capabilities [10][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.222 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.31%, and a net profit of 175 million yuan, down 11.77% year-on-year [5][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.1 yuan per 10 shares [5]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the smart port inspection system solutions was 1.03 billion yuan, down 27.37% year-on-year, while revenue from intelligent transportation and other businesses increased by 26.22% to 186 million yuan [8]. R&D Investment - The company increased its R&D investment to 153 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 12.5% of revenue, up 3.2 percentage points from 2023 [8][10]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved to 42.7% in 2024, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, with specific segments showing varied performance [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leader in the smart port industry, successfully winning several large projects and completing key regulatory model projects [9]. - It is expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia, and has established a regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia [9]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 208 million yuan, 256 million yuan, and 319 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.80 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.22 yuan [10][14].

——优化险资权益资产监管比例，全面监管体系完善 证券分析师 证券研究报告 金融行业周报 王维逸S1060520040001（证券投资咨询） 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 韦霁雯S1060524070004（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年4月13日 1 核心观点 优化险资权益资产监管比例，全面监管体系完善 1、优化险资权益资产监管比例，发挥"耐心资本"优势。 4月8日，国家金融监督管理总局发布《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监管比例有关事项的通 知》（以下简称《通知》） 。根据1月23日国新办举行新闻发布会，目前，保险资金投资股票和权益类基金的金额已经超过4.4万亿元。从保险资金运 用看，资本市场和未上市企业股权是主要的投资方向，目前股票和权益类基金投资占比是12%，未上市企业股权投资占比是9%，两项加起来是21%。截 至2024年末，中国人寿、中国平安、中国太保、新华保险的核心权益资产（股票和基金）配置比例 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][30][35] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the escalating US-China "tariff war" on the market, with China responding with equivalent measures [3][6] - Recent policies aimed at promoting consumption, such as the "Special Action Plan for Promoting Healthy Consumption," are expected to boost domestic demand [7][8] - The retail sector is actively assisting foreign trade enterprises in expanding domestic sales channels, with major players like JD.com and Alibaba launching initiatives to support this transition [11][13] Summary by Sections Macro and Industry Dynamics - The US has increased tariffs on Chinese imports, with rates reaching up to 145% [6] - China has implemented measures to promote healthy consumption and enhance the shopping experience for foreign tourists [7][8] - The domestic travel market is showing growth, with significant increases in tourist numbers during the Qingming holiday [9][10] Company Dynamics - Jinbo Biotech has received approval for a new collagen product, marking a significant innovation in the medical aesthetics field [16] - Proya has announced the recruitment of several high-profile R&D experts to enhance its global research capabilities [16] - Xiaogoods City reported a revenue increase of 17.93% year-on-year for Q1 2025, indicating strong performance in essential consumer goods [17] Investment Recommendations - The report notes that the social service sector has shown resilience, with key companies trading at a PE ratio of 20-30 times for 2025, indicating stable operations [30] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic retail companies amidst the tariff disruptions, with notable stock price increases for companies like China Duty Free and Yonghui Supermarket [28][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Kexing Pharmaceutical (688136.SH) [3][10] Core Viewpoints - Kexing Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 1.407 billion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of 11.75%, and turned a profit with a net profit of 31 million yuan [4][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.8 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [4] - The overseas sales revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase of 62% in 2024 [7] - The company is focusing on new emerging markets and has submitted over 120 registration applications for its products in more than 60 countries [7] - Kexing's innovative drug pipeline is progressing, with multiple projects in clinical trials, including two in Phase III [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Kexing Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 1.407 billion yuan, up 11.75% from the previous year, and a net profit of 31 million yuan [4][7] - The company’s operating expenses showed a decrease in sales expense ratio by 12.33 percentage points to 42.42% [7] - The R&D expense ratio decreased by 15.45 percentage points to 11.94% due to reduced clinical and trial costs [7] Market Expansion - The company’s flagship product, albumin paclitaxel, received EU approval in July 2024, with increasing sales orders [7] - Kexing is targeting emerging markets, achieving over 15% sales growth in these regions during the reporting period [7] Innovation Pipeline - Kexing is advancing several projects in clinical trials, including GDF15 monoclonal antibody and dual-specific antibodies targeting VEGF/ANG-2 and IL-4R/IL-31 [8] - The GDF15 project is aimed at treating cancer cachexia and has received IND application acceptance from the Chinese regulatory authority [8] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 1.935 billion, 2.288 billion, and 2.807 billion yuan respectively [8] - Net profit projections for the same period are revised to 123 million, 243 million, and 357 million yuan respectively [8]

证券分析师 魏伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 陈骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 张亚婕 投资咨询资格编号：S1060517110001 靳旭媛 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070018 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年4月13日 1 证券研究报告 策略周报：关税博弈，叙事切换 ※ 核心观点|关税博弈，叙事切换 2 • 上周大类资产剧烈波动。海外方面，特朗普关税表态不断反复之下，资产价格波动剧烈，美股先跌后涨再跌的过山车行情，三大股指全周 收涨4%-8%，10Y美债收益率上行近50BP至4.5%，美元指数下破100，COMEX黄金上涨6.9%。国内方面，A股波动增大，上证指数下跌 3.1%。资本市场稳市强信号密集释放支撑市场信心企稳，全周A股日均成交额环比提高12.2%至1.6万亿元，股票型ETF净流入1698.5亿元， 主要流向沪深300ETF为主的宽基ETF。农林牧渔/商贸零售/国防军工/食品饮料等自主可控与内需消费板块上涨0%-4%。 • 海外方面，美国通胀暂时降温，但关税扰动仍在持续，滞胀压力仍存。基本面上，美国通胀降温，但后续关税影响将显现。美国3月C ...

Economic Trends - Recent high-frequency data indicates a marginal weakening in China's economy, particularly in real estate sales and domestic demand for automobiles and express delivery services[2] - Steel and cement production have shown a recovery, while production rates for certain chemicals have fluctuated, reflecting a mixed industrial output[2] Real Estate Market - New home sales in 61 sample cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with a 16.1% drop since April, lower than March figures[2] - Second-hand home sales in 15 sample cities have decreased to a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, with a 15.5% increase since April, also lower than March[2] - The second-hand home listing price index fell by 0.6% month-on-month in March[2] Investment and Construction - Funding availability for construction sites increased by 0.55 percentage points week-on-week, with non-residential construction rising by 0.38 percentage points, still below last year's levels[2] - Apparent demand for rebar and wire rod, as well as cement shipments, has improved week-on-week, although absolute levels remain weaker than last year[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of major home appliances have surged by 31.4% year-on-year, while automobile retail and express delivery growth rates have slowed[2] - Daily average retail of passenger vehicles increased by 2% year-on-year from April 1-6, lower than March figures[2] External Demand - Port container throughput increased by 11.1% year-on-year, with international cargo flight numbers rising by 34.8%[2] - China's export container shipping rates stabilized with a slight increase of 0.4% week-on-week, ending a continuous decline since mid-January[2] Risks - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[2]

2025 年 04 月 14 日 2025 年 3 月金融数据点评 企业短期贷款支撑较强 证券分析师 | 钟正生 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520090001 | | | ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn | 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 风险提示：稳增长政策效果不及预期，海外经济衰退程度超预期，地缘政治冲突升级等。 宏 观 报 告 宏观点评报告 一、 社融增速进一步回升 2025年3月，新增社融58879亿元，同比上年多增10544亿；社融存量同比增长8.4%，较上月进一步回升0.2 个百分点。 从分项来看，社融同比多增主要受到政府债券融资和人民币贷款的拉动，而企业债券融资同比少增产生拖累。 图表1 2025 年 3 月新增社融及各分项规模 资料来源 : Wind ，人民银行，平安证券研究所；注：其他类包括贷款核销、存款类机构资产支持证券等分项 10,544 5,358 -837 299 -443 81 -5,142 186 10,202 84 ...

医药 2025 年 04 月 14 日 科兴制药(688136.SH) 24年利润端实现扭亏，关注新品海外放量节奏 推荐（维持） 股价：30.00 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 医药 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.kexing.com | | 大股东/持股 | 深圳科益医药控股有限公司/66.01% | | 实际控制人 | 邓学勤 | | 总股本(百万股) | 200 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 200 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 60 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 60 | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.19 | | 资产负债率(%) | 48.2 | | 行情走势图 | | 相关研究报告 【平安证券】科兴制药（688136.SH ）*公司动态跟踪 报告*出海业务有望保持高增长，创新药平台价值静待 重估*推荐20250402 证券分析师 | 叶寅 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514100001 | | | BOT335 | | | YEYIN757@pingan.com.cn | | ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The implementation of the integrated circuit origin recognition standard is a significant policy response to the escalation of US-China trade tensions, which is expected to accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's localization process [2][8][11] - The origin recognition standard states that the origin of integrated circuits will be determined based on the location of the wafer fabrication plant, emphasizing wafer manufacturing over packaging and testing [8][9] - Domestic wafer foundries like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor are expected to benefit from the return of overseas foundry orders as design companies may shift production to China to avoid US tariffs [10][11] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas with low localization rates and significant market shares held by US companies, particularly in the design segment, with recommendations for companies like Sanan Optoelectronics and Zhaoyi Innovation [2][11] - In the manufacturing segment, SMIC and Hua Hong are highlighted as key players to watch [11] - For CPU and GPU sectors, companies such as Haiguang Information and Loongson Technology are recommended, with a note to monitor Cambrian [11] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The US bond market has seen a decline in 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields by 34 basis points and 24 basis points respectively, indicating a steepening yield curve amid rising recessionary trades [3][12][13] - High-yield Chinese dollar bonds have performed well, outpacing both domestic and foreign credit bonds due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and a decrease in real estate default risks [3][12][13] Group 4: Fund Strategies - In a low-interest-rate environment, there is an expectation for the development of fixed-income enhancement strategies, particularly focusing on medium-volatility strategies that can adapt to market changes while controlling drawdowns [4][16][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting funds with strong timing capabilities and flexibility to respond to market fluctuations [19][20]