证券研究报告 【利率债观察】关税落地后的债市怎么看？ 证券分析师 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 郑子辰 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521090001 近两周核心观点 市场表现 近两周国债收益率曲线牛平，10Y国债回落至1.79%。3月下旬利率自高点回落，央行对资金态度回暖，MLF结构性降息，叠加贸易战关税压力、股 市阶段性回调，债市3月下半月收复了上半月近一半的跌幅，10Y国债1.8%暂时成为下旬新的波动锚。近两周整体来看，25年3月21日-4月2日，收 益率曲线整体偏走平，10Y国债收益率下行4.2BP至1.79%，3Y-7Y国债收益率下行2-7BP。 MLF结构性降息后，央行态度似有缓和，但市场利率和政策利率利差仍不低。截至04月02日，OMO余额为7585亿元，较03月20日减少7409亿元。4 月2日较3月20日，R001下行5.25BP至1.79%，R007下行5.80BP至1.91%。当前DR007较政策利率高34.18BP、R007较政策利率高40.51BP。 机构行为方面，负carry缓和后市场杠杆率上行，基本接近中位数；基金维持净买入，小行净卖出同业存单，保险配债规 ...

2025 年 4 月 6 日 宏观深度报告 中国产能周期：变化、机遇与挑战 证券分析师 | 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 | | | --- | --- | | S1060520090001 | | | zhongzhengsheng934@pingan.com.cn | | | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn | | | 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 | | S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 深 度 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 目前宏观政策和市场的一个重要关切在于，中国产能周期能否较快回稳，这关 系到增长内生动能的变化、物价指标的趋向。本文着眼于 2024 年下半年以来产 能周期在总量和结构层面的积极变化，资本开支层面的优化调整，展望 2025 年 产能周期面临的外部挑战和内部机遇。 产能周期的新变化。2024 年四季度，中国产能利用率企稳回升，需求端回暖是 主要带动力量。结构上，中下游行业是产能周期企稳的主要带动，主要包括计算 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.352 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 38.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 271 million yuan, up 28.15% year-over-year [4][7] - The precursor product sales significantly increased, with revenue from this segment reaching 578 million yuan, accounting for 24.6% of total revenue, and showing a year-over-year growth of 70.3% [7] - The specialty gas business generated 1.506 billion yuan in revenue, making up 64.05% of total revenue, with a year-over-year increase of 22.33% [7] - The company is transitioning from a focus on LED to a more balanced growth across IC, LED, and LCD industries, with IC revenue growing by 106% year-over-year [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 2.352 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 41.2% and a net profit margin of 11.5% [6][10] - The company’s total expenses decreased to 22.95% of revenue, down from 29.79% in 2023, indicating improved cost management [7] Revenue Breakdown - The precursor business saw a sales volume increase of 83.39%, with a sales gross margin of 48.61%, up 8.71 percentage points year-over-year [7] - The specialty gas segment's sales volume increased by 25.07%, despite a decline in sales gross margin to 39.95% [7] Future Projections - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 362 million yuan in 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 59.3 [8][10] - Revenue is forecasted to grow to 3.072 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 30.6% [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Haitian Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. (603288.SH) [1][8] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.53%, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margin improved significantly to 37.00%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points, driven by lower raw material costs and production efficiency enhancements [6][8] - The product matrix continues to expand, with all categories showing effective growth, particularly soy sauce, which generated revenue of 13.758 billion yuan, up 8.87% year-on-year [6][8] - The company has optimized its channel network, achieving balanced revenue growth across different regions, with the southern region showing the fastest growth at 12.88% [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 26.901 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan and a gross profit margin of 37.00% [3][6] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a steady growth in net profit, with estimates of 7.004 billion yuan, 7.740 billion yuan, and 8.463 billion yuan respectively [8][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 1.14 yuan in 2024 to 1.52 yuan by 2027 [10][11] Financial Ratios - The net profit margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 23.6% for 2025 and 24.2% for 2027 [10] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 20.5% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 18.8% by 2027 [10] - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to decrease from 23.1% in 2024 to 19.5% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][3][10] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 174.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the forecast [3][6] - The company aims for a stable growth target in 2025, with an expected revenue growth of around 9% [6][10] - The company is focusing on optimizing online marketing and expanding overseas markets, with domestic and overseas revenues expected to reach 165.7 billion yuan and 5.2 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16% and 20% [6][10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's white liquor revenue reached 170.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with Moutai liquor and series liquor contributing 145.9 billion yuan and 24.7 billion yuan respectively [6][10] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 91.9%, with a net profit margin of 49.5% [8][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 64.7 billion yuan, which accounts for 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected operating revenues for the next few years are as follows: - 2025: 187.6 billion yuan (growth of 9.8%) - 2026: 203.4 billion yuan (growth of 8.4%) - 2027: 218.9 billion yuan (growth of 7.6%) [5][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach: - 2025: 94.8 billion yuan - 2026: 103.4 billion yuan - 2027: 111.6 billion yuan [5][11] Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 22.6 in 2024 to 17.4 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [5][11] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 8.3 in 2024 to 6.3 in 2027 [5][11]

公 司 报 告 2025年04月03日 计算机 中控技术(688777.SH) 公司业绩保持稳健增长，国际市场加速开拓 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:52.41元 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 闫磊 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060517070006 | | | YANLEI511@pingan.com.cn | | 黄韦涵 | 投资咨询资格编号 | S1060523070003 HUANGWEIHAN235@pingan.com.cn 事项： 公司公告2024年年报。2024年，公司实现营业收入91.39亿元，同比增长 6.02%；实现归母净利润11.17亿元，同比增长1.38%；实现扣非归母净利润 10.38亿元，同比增长9.51%。公司发布利润分配预案：以总股本785,715,016 为基数，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利7.10元（含税）。不进行资本公积 金转增股本，不送红股。 平安观点： 证 券 研究助理 王佳一 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060123070023 WANGJIAYI446@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Trump set a 10% benchmark tariff for all countries and higher reciprocal tariffs for 50 countries with large trade deficits with the US, which account for 70% of the US total imports in 2024. After the reciprocal tariff increase, the average US tariff rate will rise by 27%, significantly increasing the risk of US economic recession and secondary inflation. This will also increase China's export pressure, and China's export growth rate may turn negative in 2025 [3]. - The performance of US major asset classes remains uncertain, depending on the US economic resilience, other countries' counter - measures, etc. Other countries may choose monetary easing and currency depreciation, which will support the US dollar to gradually bottom out, and US Treasury bonds may tend to flatten. Gold and inflation - protected bonds are favored, while US stocks are bearish, and there are both bullish and bearish impacts on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [3]. - In the short term, domestic risk - aversion sentiment prevails in China. The bond market may break through in April, and policy statements should be monitored. The export pressure caused by tariffs has increased significantly, leading to a pattern of strong bonds and weak stocks in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Trump's Tariff Policy Details - On April 2, Trump set a 10% benchmark tariff for all countries and higher reciprocal tariffs for 50 countries with large trade deficits. The reciprocal tariffs are "equivalent" but calculated by considering factors such as tariffs, unfair taxes, non - tariff barriers, and exchange - rate manipulation. Canada and Mexico are excluded from the reciprocal tariff list, and for China, the reciprocal tariff may be cumulative with the previous 20% tariff due to the fentanyl issue, reaching 54% [3][5]. Impact on the US Economy - The reciprocal tariff increase will raise the US average tariff rate by 27%, pulling up core PCE inflation by 2.7% in the next year and dragging down the US real GDP by 1.1% - 2.4%. It also increases the risk of recession and the possibility of wage - inflation spiral and secondary inflation, which restricts the Fed's dovish attitude [3][9][10]. Impact on China - The US reciprocal tariff means greater export pressure for China. It is estimated that China's export growth rate in 2025 may turn negative. The additional 26% tariff on China compared with other major US trading partners may lead to a 4.6 - percentage - point decline in China's export year - on - year and a 0.9 - percentage - point drag on GDP. Considering the global manufacturing PMI decline, the export growth rate may be even lower [3][11]. Impact on Asset Classes - For US assets, the performance is uncertain. Other countries' possible monetary easing and currency depreciation may support the US dollar to bottom out, and US Treasury bonds may flatten. Gold and inflation - protected bonds are favored, while US stocks are bearish, and there are both bullish and bearish impacts on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [3][22]. - In China, in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment prevails, resulting in a pattern of strong bonds and weak stocks. The bond market may break through in April, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.7% - 1.85% [3][23]. Market Pricing Pattern Changes - The market's pricing pattern for tariff news has changed from a strong - dollar, weak - stock - and - bond scenario to a strong - Treasury - bond, weak - dollar - and - US - stock scenario, which is a shift from dollar - safe - haven trading to US - recession trading. The reasons include increased policy uncertainty, a weaker - than - expected tax - cut framework, and excessive tariff increases on Mexico and Canada [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Haitian Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. (603288.SH) [1][8] Core Views - The company achieved an annual revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% year-on-year [4][8] - The gross profit margin improved significantly to 37.00%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points, driven by lower raw material costs and production efficiency enhancements [7][8] - The product matrix continues to expand, with all categories showing effective growth, particularly soy sauce, which generated revenue of 13.758 billion yuan, up 8.87% year-on-year [7][8] - The company has optimized its channel network, achieving balanced revenue growth across different regions, with the southern region showing the fastest growth at 12.88% [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2024 revenue: 26.901 billion yuan, up 9.53% [4] - 2024 net profit: 6.344 billion yuan, up 12.75% [4] - Gross margin: 37.00%, up 2.26 percentage points [7] - Net margin: 23.63%, up 0.66 percentage points [7] - Future Projections: - Expected net profit for 2025: 7.004 billion yuan [8] - Expected EPS for 2025: 1.26 yuan [8] - Projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027: 32.4, 29.3, and 26.8 respectively [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the condiment industry, with strong competitive advantages in brand, product, and channel [8] - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts to enhance market competitiveness through refined channel operations and national layout optimization [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) [1] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching 174.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 86.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% [4][7] - The company aims for steady growth in 2025, targeting a revenue increase of approximately 9% [7] - The report highlights the company's focus on optimizing online sales and expanding overseas markets, with domestic and overseas revenues projected at 165.7 billion yuan and 5.2 billion yuan, respectively, for 2024 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Guizhou Moutai's white liquor revenue was 170.6 billion yuan, a 15.9% increase, with Moutai liquor and series liquor contributing 145.9 billion yuan and 24.7 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The company reported a gross margin of 91.9% for 2024, with a net profit margin of 49.5% [9] - The report projects revenue growth for the next few years, with expected revenues of 187.6 billion yuan in 2025 and 203.4 billion yuan in 2026 [6][10] Market Strategy - Guizhou Moutai plans to enhance traditional channel investments while optimizing online sales, with direct sales and wholesale revenues expected to grow by 11% and 20%, respectively, in 2024 [7] - The company is increasing its efforts in overseas market expansion, with a targeted revenue growth of 20% in international markets [7] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 276.24 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 64.7 billion yuan, which represents 75% of the net profit for the year [9] - As of March, Guizhou Moutai has repurchased shares worth 1.6 billion yuan, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder returns [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [3][13]. Core Views - The company's operating conditions improved in the second half of 2024, with a notable performance from its subsidiary, Electric Science and Technology JinCang [1][8]. - Despite a decline in annual revenue and net profit compared to the previous year, the company is focusing on market expansion and project delivery to enhance its core business [8][9]. - The company is actively participating in digital transformation projects across various sectors, including government and enterprise, which positions it well for future growth [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 7.836 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 191 million yuan, down 49.08% [3][8]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the cloud and data services segment grew by 12.34% to 1.173 billion yuan, while other segments experienced declines [8][9]. - The company’s profit distribution plan includes a cash dividend of 0.925 yuan per 10 shares [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for 2025 estimates revenue to rise to 9.831 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 249 million yuan, reflecting a recovery trend [7][11]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.40 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 62.2 times based on the closing price on April 2 [9][11]. Business Segments and Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its digital government initiatives and has secured contracts for various projects, including disaster prevention and monitoring systems [9]. - In the digital enterprise sector, the company continues to provide services to major clients and is expanding its customer base by integrating emerging technologies [9]. - The subsidiary, Electric Science and Technology JinCang, reported a revenue increase of 16.02% to 432.59 million yuan, indicating strong performance in the database sector [9][10]. Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 24.1%, with a net margin of 2.4% [11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 3.6% in 2024 to 6.3% by 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [11]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 65.0%, indicating a stable financial structure [11].