医药 2025 年 04 月 02 日 科兴制药(688136.SH) 出海业务有望保持高增长，创新药平台价值静待重估 推荐（维持） 股价：28.13 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 医药 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.kexing.com | | 大股东/持股 | 深圳科益医药控股有限公司/66.01% | | 实际控制人 | 邓学勤 | | 总股本(百万股) | 200 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 200 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 56 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 56 | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.09 | | 资产负债率(%) | 46.0 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】科兴制药（688136.SH）*深度报告*多国 GMP验厂节奏符合预期，白紫出海欧盟确定性较强*推 荐20240509 证券分析师 | 叶寅 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514100001 | | | BOT335 | | | YEYIN757@pingan.com.cn | | 研究助理 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Vanke A (000002.SZ) with a current stock price of 7.11 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of 343.18 billion yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year, and a net loss of 49.48 billion yuan, down 506.8% year-on-year. The loss was slightly higher than the earnings forecast, and the company plans not to distribute dividends or issue bonus shares [5][8]. - The report highlights that the company's profitability is under pressure due to several factors, including a significant decrease in the settlement scale and gross profit margin of development business, which fell to 9.5%, leading to a comprehensive gross margin decline of 5.1 percentage points to 10.2% [8]. - The company is actively working on restructuring and risk mitigation strategies, focusing on core business operations and achieving stable sales and cash recovery [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Vanke A's revenue is projected to be 343.18 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 26.3%. The net profit is expected to be -49.48 billion yuan, reflecting a 506.8% decrease compared to the previous year [5][8]. - The gross margin is expected to remain at 10.2% for 2025, with a slight improvement to 11.3% by 2027 [7]. Operational Strategy - The company aims to deliver over 180,000 high-quality homes in 2024, achieving sales of 246.02 billion yuan, maintaining a sales recovery rate above 100% [8]. - Vanke A has completed 54 major asset transactions, totaling 25.9 billion yuan, and has optimized its capacity to recover over 10 billion yuan in cash [9]. Support from Shareholders - Since the end of 2023, major shareholders, including Shenzhen State-owned Assets and Shenzhen Metro Group, have provided substantial support to the company, assisting in the disposal of illiquid assets and facilitating financing [9]. - In early 2025, the major shareholder provided a total of 7 billion yuan in loans to meet the company's funding needs [9]. Future Earnings Projections - The report has adjusted the EPS forecast for 2025 to -0.80 yuan and for 2026 to -0.33 yuan, with a new projection for 2027 at 0.10 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of -8.9 for 2025 and -21.7 for 2026 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 20% within the next six months [1][13]. Core Views - The company continues to invest heavily in research and development, maintaining a high level of R&D expenditure to enhance its competitive edge in the market [1][9]. - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, the company is expected to recover in the following years, with projected growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [5][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6,581 million yuan, a decrease of 9.62% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1,043 million yuan, down 26.75% year-on-year [5][8]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 72.0%, reflecting a decline of 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous year, while the net margin was 15.9% [8][11]. - R&D expenses for 2024 were 2,458 million yuan, accounting for 37.4% of total revenue, indicating a commitment to innovation despite financial pressures [8][11]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from wealth technology services was 1,430 million yuan, down 17.50% year-on-year, which was the primary contributor to the overall revenue decline [8]. - Other revenue segments, including operational and institutional technology services, also experienced declines, with revenues of 1,289 million yuan and 1,568 million yuan, down 10.24% and 8.38% respectively [8]. Future Projections - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue, projecting 7,048 million yuan in 2025, followed by 7,691 million yuan in 2026 and 8,469 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 7.1%, 9.1%, and 10.1% [7][11]. - Net profit is expected to rise to 1,211 million yuan in 2025, 1,449 million yuan in 2026, and 1,756 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 16.0%, 19.7%, and 21.1% respectively [7][11]. Strategic Focus - The company is deepening its strategic focus by enhancing its core product competitiveness, launching new platforms in asset management, brokerage, and wealth management [9]. - The introduction of innovative systems such as the UF3.0 brokerage core system and the O45 asset management platform is aimed at optimizing client services and improving risk management capabilities [9].

出海业务有望保持高增长，创新药平台价值静待重估 医药 2025 年 04 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 科兴制药(688136.SH) 股价：28.13 元 相关研究报告 主要数据 | 行业 | 医药 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.kexing.com | | 大股东/持股 | 深圳科益医药控股有限公司/66.01% | | 实际控制人 | 邓学勤 | | 总股本(百万股) | 200 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 200 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 56 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 56 | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.09 | | 资产负债率(%) | 46.0 | 行情走势图 【平安证券】科兴制药（688136.SH）*深度报告*多国 GMP验厂节奏符合预期，白紫出海欧盟确定性较强*推 荐20240509 证券分析师 | 叶寅 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514100001 | | | BOT335 | | | YEYIN757@pingan.com.cn | | 研究助理 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the convertible bond market experienced a significant rally in Q1 2025, primarily driven by the technology sector and small-cap stocks, with convertible bonds outperforming expectations due to a 60% increase relative to their underlying stocks, surpassing the median elasticity of 40% [2][3][6] - The sustainability of the technology stock rally is a key focus for Q2, with expectations of potential consolidation after a rapid increase in stock prices, indicating that the current growth trend may not be over but could face short-term adjustments [2][25][69] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In Q1 2025, convertible bonds saw a broad increase, benefiting from the recovery in technology and small-cap styles, with a notable contribution from bond adjustments [2][6][9] - The overall performance of convertible bonds was characterized by a risk-return profile that remained balanced, with equity assets ending their weak phase [12][18] Investment Strategy - Timing: The report suggests that a good buying opportunity for TMT stocks will arise after a correction of approximately 15%, recommending gradual accumulation of positions as the market adjusts [4][66] - Selection: TMT and emerging cycle convertible bonds exhibit the highest elasticity in a growth market, with strong debt protection, suggesting that bonds priced below 110 yuan have significant investment value [4][69] Valuation and Risk Assessment - The valuation of convertible bonds is currently considered high, with future price movements largely dependent on the performance of underlying stocks, although a solid floor exists due to the significant decline in risk-free yields enhancing the bond floor [3][53][68] - The report indicates that the risk of credit downgrades or significant interest rate increases is currently low, with historical data showing that downgrades typically do not exceed 5% in a quarter [3][68] Focus Areas for Q2 - The technology sector is expected to continue its upward trend, although a phase of consolidation may occur, with historical patterns suggesting a typical adjustment period of around 15% after initial rapid gains [25][28][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of convertible bonds in relation to their underlying stocks, particularly in light of the recent market dynamics and potential adjustments [53][69]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company has seen a significant increase in wind turbine orders, leading to an upward trend in profitability. The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 566.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.37%, with a net profit of 18.60 billion yuan, up 39.78% year-on-year [4][8] - The gross margin for wind turbine sales has improved significantly, contributing to the rapid growth in performance. The company expects further growth in wind turbine shipments and revenue in 2025 due to a substantial increase in orders [7][8] - The company is also experiencing stable growth in its power plant business and rapid development in wind power service operations, with service revenue reaching 55.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.26% [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 566.99 billion yuan, with a net profit of 18.60 billion yuan, and a diluted EPS of 0.44 yuan. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.40 yuan per 10 shares [4][8] - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 80.36 billion yuan and 90.01 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 30.00 billion yuan and 39.60 billion yuan [6][8] Business Segments - Wind turbine sales volume reached 16.05 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.56%, with revenue from wind turbines and components at 389.2 billion yuan, up 18.17% year-on-year [7][8] - The company has a backlog of external wind turbine orders totaling 45.08 GW, a 51% increase year-on-year, with overseas orders accounting for 7.03 GW, also up approximately 50% [7][8] Market Outlook - The wind power industry is expected to remain favorable, with the company maintaining a strong competitive advantage in the wind turbine sector. The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 12.5, 9.5, and 7.6 for the years 2025 to 2027 [8]

策略配置 2025 年 4 月 1 日 多元资产月报（2025 年 4 月） 国内交易逻辑回归基本面，关税政策搅动海外变局 证券分析师 | 魏伟 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060513060001 | | | WEIWEI170@pingan.com.cn | | 陈骁 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060516070001 | | | CHENXIAO397@pingan.com.cn | | 刘璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060519060001 | | | LIULU979@pingan.com.cn | | 张亚婕 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060517110001 | | | ZHANGYAJIE976@pingan.com.cn | | 郭子睿 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520070003 | | | GUOZIRUI807@pingan.com.cn | | 张君瑞 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060519080001 | | | ZHANGJUNRUI748@pingan.com.cn | | ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Market Trends - The domestic economy is showing signs of seasonal recovery, with leading indicators indicating steady improvement in the economic fundamentals as of April [10][11] - A-shares are entering a period of concentrated earnings announcements, with the pricing power of fundamental factors increasing, which is expected to drive market differentiation [10][11] - The bond market is anticipated to see a slight decline in yields amidst fluctuations, influenced by adjustments in MLF bidding methods signaling a marginal easing from the central bank [10][11] Group 2: Company Performance - Inspur Information (000977.SZ) - Inspur Information reported a significant increase in revenue for 2024, achieving 114.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 74.24%, and a net profit of 2.29 billion yuan, up 28.55% [13][14] - The company is focusing on AI capabilities, launching platforms and products that support diverse computing chips, enhancing its position in the AI market [14][15] - The company has maintained a leading position in the global server market, with significant market shares in various segments, including cloud computing and AI [14][15] Group 3: Company Performance - Shanghai Bank (601229.SH) - Shanghai Bank reported a 4.79% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, with a net profit growth of 4.5% [18][19] - The bank's total assets reached 3.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.57% increase year-on-year, with loans and deposits also showing steady growth [18][19] - The bank is focusing on differentiated competitive advantages in consumer finance, wealth management, and pension finance, with a current dividend yield of 4.67% [19] Group 4: Company Performance - Seres (601127.SH) - Seres achieved a remarkable revenue increase of 305.04% in 2024, reaching 145.18 billion yuan, and turned a profit with a net profit of 5.95 billion yuan [25][26] - The company’s sales of electric vehicles surged, with a significant contribution from the Wanjie series, which has become a market leader in its segment [26][27] - The upcoming new models are expected to further enhance sales and profitability, with strong competitive advantages in their price segments [29] Group 5: Company Performance - Digital China (000034.SZ) - Digital China reported a revenue of 128.17 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.14% increase, although net profit declined by 35.77% due to asset impairment and financial costs [31][32] - The company’s cloud services and software business showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 18.75% [32][33] - Digital China is expanding its self-branded products and has secured significant contracts in various sectors, including finance and telecommunications [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Yutong Bus (600066.SH) [1][8] Core Views - Yutong Bus achieved a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38%, and a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan, up 127% year-on-year [4][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year [4] - The export sales volume reached 14,000 units in 2024, a 37.7% increase year-on-year, with export revenue of 15.2 billion yuan, up 46.1% year-on-year [7] - The company maintains a strong market position with a total sales volume of 40,000 large and medium-sized buses in 2024, supported by growing tourism and public transport demand [7] - The report highlights a decrease in various expense ratios due to scale effects and cost control, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 7.2 billion yuan, a 53% increase year-on-year [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 42.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.5% increase, with net profit expected to reach 4.7 billion yuan, a 14.9% increase [6][8] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 4.73 billion yuan and 5.35 billion yuan, respectively, and introduces a forecast of 6.01 billion yuan for 2027 [8] - The company’s gross margin for domestic and overseas bus products is reported at 19.4% and 28.5%, respectively, with a focus on R&D investment in light bus product development and high-end overseas products [7][8] Market Position and Strategy - Yutong Bus is positioned as a market leader with a solid export growth trajectory, benefiting from cost control and operational efficiency [8] - The company’s capital expenditure remains low, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining profitability while investing in growth areas [7][8] - The report emphasizes the confidence in achieving revenue growth targets for 2025, with an export target of 16,000 units, including 3,300 new energy buses [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock performance that exceeds market performance by 10% to 20% over the next six months [10]. Core Views - The company is projected to turn a profit in 2024, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit compared to previous years. The expected revenue for 2024 is 145.18 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 305.04%, and a net profit of 5.95 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4][6]. - The launch of new models in 2025 is anticipated to enhance the company's sales and profitability, with the new models expected to maintain strong competitive advantages in their respective market segments [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 145.18 billion yuan, a 305.04% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.95 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 2.45 billion yuan in 2023 [4][6]. - The gross margin for the automotive business reached 25.69% in 2024, an increase of 16.18 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margin for the new energy vehicle segment at 26.21%, up 16.29 percentage points [7]. Sales and Market Position - The company sold 427,000 new energy vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 182.8%. The Wanjie M9 model alone delivered over 150,000 units, leading the luxury car segment in China for 11 consecutive months [7]. - The upcoming models, Wanjie M8 and the updated M9, are expected to further boost sales and profitability, with strong initial order performance noted [8]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 9.8 billion yuan and 13.1 billion yuan, respectively, with a new projection for 2027 set at 15.5 billion yuan [8]. - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the Wanjie brand, especially following the introduction of new models, which are expected to enhance sales volume and profitability [8].