相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业动态跟踪报告-非银行金融-险资 投资黄金试点开启，优化资产配置、分散投资风险- 强于大市 20250211 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-资负双驱，友 邦 2024 业绩增长强劲-强于大市 20250314 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-24H2 公募基金 保有量点评：股指型与债基表现亮眼，券商及第三 方市占率提升-强于大市 20250318 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-投资趋势性回 非银行金融 2025 年 03 月 27 日 行业点评 NBV 增、COR 升、投资稳，阳光 2024 业绩稳健 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 暖，众安 2024 承保盈利能力承压-强于大市 20250320 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-资负双驱，太 平 2024 业绩亮眼-强于大市 20250325 证券分析师 | 王维逸 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520040001 | | | BQC673 | | | WANGWEIYI059@pingan.com.cn | | 李冰婷 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S10605200400 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a cautious outlook with a focus on structural opportunities in sectors benefiting from AI and policy support. Core Insights - The report highlights that the A-share market is approaching a critical decision point in April, with increased focus on fundamental changes in the economy. It predicts continued pressure on corporate earnings in 2024, with a potential stabilization in profitability for certain sectors in 2025. [3][11] - The overall earnings growth for A-shares is projected to be -3% for 2024, with non-financial sectors experiencing a more significant decline of -24%. The report identifies agriculture, commerce, non-bank financials, and electronics as sectors with positive earnings growth. [11][23] - The AI industry chain is noted for its strong growth prospects, with demand for AI infrastructure and applications driving profitability in related sectors. [3][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring structural opportunities in sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, defense, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from policy support and improved fundamentals. [3][11] Summary by Sections Total Trends - The report forecasts that the profitability of listed companies will remain under pressure in 2024, with a potential GDP growth of 5.1% in Q1 2025. The overall earnings growth for A-shares is expected to be -3%, with non-financial sectors at -24%. [3][11] - Key sectors such as agriculture, commerce, non-bank financials, and electronics are projected to have earnings growth rates ranging from 20% to 540%. [11][23] Mid-level Observations - The AI industry chain is highlighted as having a favorable outlook, with demand for AI-related products and services driving growth. The report also notes improvements in the basic fundamentals of the non-ferrous metals sector and a recovery in the real estate chain. [3][11] - The report indicates that the coal and petrochemical sectors are showing signs of recovery, while the real estate market is expected to stabilize in 2025. [3][11] Micro-level Consumption - The report suggests that policy measures are expected to stimulate consumer demand, leading to a potential recovery in industry sentiment. The automotive sector is anticipated to benefit from supportive policies, particularly for new energy vehicles. [3][11] - The food and beverage sector is expected to see improved performance, particularly in the liquor segment, while the pharmaceutical sector is poised for growth due to the internationalization of domestic innovative drugs. [3][11] Market Outlook - The report advises investors to focus on structural opportunities as the market approaches the "April decision." It suggests that while the market may experience short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive due to policy support and industry transformations. [3][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries is "Recommended (Maintain)" with a current price of 31.25 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the lithium price has returned to historical lows, and the company is expected to wait for performance to stabilize and recover. The significant drop in lithium prices in 2024 has led to substantial pressure on the company's performance, but a potential recovery in 2025 is anticipated as production increases and prices stabilize [6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Tianqi Lithium achieved a revenue of 13.063 billion CNY, a year-over-year decline of 67.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -7.905 billion CNY, down 208.32% year-over-year. The company did not declare cash dividends or stock bonuses for the year [5]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 2.999 billion CNY, a decrease of 57.79% year-over-year, with a net profit of -2.203 billion CNY, down 174.98% year-over-year [5]. Lithium Mining and Processing - The company's lithium mining and processing revenue in 2024 was 4.978 billion CNY, a decline of 81.70%, accounting for 38.11% of total revenue. The production and sales volumes of lithium concentrate were 1.4105 million tons and 739,100 tons, respectively, down 7.35% and 12.50% year-over-year. The average selling price was approximately 6,735 CNY/ton, a decrease of 79% [6]. - The gross margin for this segment was 63.71%, down 26.73 percentage points year-over-year [6]. Lithium Compounds - Revenue from lithium compounds and derivatives in 2024 was 8.075 billion CNY, a decrease of 39.24%, with a gross margin of 35.21%, down 38.64 percentage points year-over-year. The average selling price was about 78,543 CNY/ton, down 66.5% [7]. - The production and sales volumes of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide reached 70,700 tons and 102,800 tons, respectively, representing increases of 39.44% and 81.46% year-over-year [7]. Future Outlook - The report projects that from 2025 to 2027, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 1.391 billion CNY, 1.918 billion CNY, and 2.148 billion CNY, respectively. The corresponding P/E ratios are expected to be 36.9, 26.7, and 23.9 [8][10]. - The construction of the chemical-grade lithium plant at the Greenbush mine is expected to be completed in 2025, which will increase the total production capacity to 2.14 million tons/year, potentially leading to improved performance [6].

事项： 宏观 2025 年 3 月 27 日 2025 年 1-2 月工业企业利润数据点评 工业补库存开启 证券分析师 钟正生 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG93 4@pingan.com.cn 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 2025 年 1-2 月份，规上工业企业实现利润总额 9109.9 亿元，累计同比下降 0.3%，增速较 2024 年全年加快 3.0 个百分点。 平安观点： 风险提示：稳增长政策落地效果不及预期，海外经济衰退，地缘政治冲突升级等。 宏 观 报 告 宏 观 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 2025 年开年，工业企业利润总量延续改善势头。结构上以装备制造和原材料 制造行业带动较强，得益于"两新"政策带来的需求支撑，上游采矿利润增 速回落也有助于中下游成本压力缓解。一个积极信号在于，工业企业库存周 期再次启动，资产和负债扩张也有提速，体现企业预期改善。从领先指标 ...

Group 1: Social Security System Achievements - China's social security system has become the largest in the world, significantly enhancing final consumption rates, which rose by 7.2 percentage points to 56.5% from 2010 to 2019[20] - By the end of 2024, basic pension insurance and medical insurance covered 1.066 billion and 1.326 billion people, respectively, achieving approximately three times the coverage compared to 2010[26] - The participation rate for basic medical insurance reached 94.2% by 2024, while basic pension insurance exceeded 95%, ahead of the "14th Five-Year Plan" target[26] Group 2: Quality of Coverage Issues - The quality of insurance coverage remains a concern, with only 80.6% and 57.6% of urban employees covered by pension and medical insurance, respectively, indicating a gap of approximately 9 million and 20 million people[45] - Rural residents' pension replacement rate is only 14.4%, insufficient to cover basic food expenses, while urban retirees receive an average pension that exceeds daily expenses by 2872 yuan[37] - The reimbursement rate for residents' medical insurance is lower than that for urban employees, leading to a significant disparity in medical consumption willingness[43] Group 3: Barriers to Participation - The current social security system does not mandate participation for flexible employment and self-employed individuals, resulting in a significant coverage gap among these groups[50] - The minimum contribution base for social security is often higher than the actual income of low-income individuals, increasing their financial burden and discouraging participation[58] - The average income of flexible employment individuals is only 44.4% of the average urban employee's salary, making it difficult for them to meet the social security contribution requirements[70]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Viewpoints - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) reported a net profit of 45 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.9%, with operating profit at 34.4 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.08 yuan per share, totaling 10.4 billion yuan, which accounts for 23.1% of the annual net profit [2] - The life insurance segment is undergoing a deep transformation, with new premium income expected to reach 78.9 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, but showing quarterly growth fluctuations [2] - The economic assumptions have been adjusted, with the risk discount rate lowered from 9.0% to 8.5% and the investment return rate from 4.5% to 4.0% [2] - The property insurance segment achieved a premium income of 201.2 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, despite an increase in the combined ratio due to large disaster claims [2] - Total investment income for 2024 is projected at 120.4 billion yuan, a significant increase of 130.5% year-on-year, with investment yield rates showing slight variations [2] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - New premium income is projected at 78.9 billion yuan, with quarterly performance showing fluctuations [2] - The number of sales agents increased to 188,000, with a 30.4% year-on-year increase in average first-year premium per agent [2] - The bank insurance channel saw a significant increase in NBV, with a year-on-year growth of 134.8% [2] Property Insurance - Premium income reached 201.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [2] - The combined ratio increased to 98.6%, primarily due to disaster-related claims [2] Investment Performance - The proportion of stocks and equity funds in investment assets rose to 11.2% [2] - Total investment income is expected to be 120.4 billion yuan, with net investment yield rates showing slight declines [2] Investment Recommendations - The low interest rate environment is expected to enhance the competitiveness of major insurance companies, with a focus on floating income products [2] - The industry valuation remains at a low point, suggesting potential for recovery [2]

非银行金融 2025 年 03 月 27 日 行业点评 负债端稳健、资产端高弹性，国寿 2024 净利润翻倍 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】行业动态跟踪报告-非银行金融-险资 投资黄金试点开启，优化资产配置、分散投资风险- 强于大市 20250211 行 业 报 告 行 业 点 评 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-资负双驱，友 邦 2024 业绩增长强劲-强于大市 20250314 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-24H2 公募基金 保有量点评：股指型与债基表现亮眼，券商及第三 方市占率提升-强于大市 20250318 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-投资趋势性回 暖，众安 2024 承保盈利能力承压-强于大市 20250320 【平安证券】行业点评-非银行金融-资负双驱，太 平 2024 业绩亮眼-强于大市 20250325 证券分析师 | 王维逸 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520040001 | | | BQC673 | | | WANGWEIYI059@pingan.com.cn | | 李冰婷 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | ...

公 司 报 告 房地产 2025 年 03 月 27 日 华润置地(1109.HK) 均衡开拓，稳中精进 推荐（维持） 股价：25.85 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 房地产 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.crland.com.hk | | 大股东/持股 | 华润（集团）有限公司/59.55% | | 实际控制人 | 国务院国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 7130.94 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 0 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | 7130.94 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1701.15 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 0 | | 每股净资产(元) | 38.21 | | 资产负债率(%) | 64.84 | 行情走势图 | 杨侃 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514080002 | | | BQV514 | | | YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn | | 郑茜文 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060520090003 | | | ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.c ...

Group 1: Achievements of the Social Security System - China has established the world's largest social security system, significantly enhancing the final consumption rate, which rose by 7.2 percentage points from 49.4% in 2010 to 56.5% in 2019[2][8] - By the end of 2024, basic pension insurance and medical insurance covered 1.066 billion and 1.326 billion people, respectively, achieving a coverage rate of 95% for pension insurance ahead of the "14th Five-Year Plan" target[2][11] Group 2: Issues in Coverage Quality - The quality of insurance coverage remains inadequate, with only 80.6% of urban employees covered by pension insurance and 57.6% by medical insurance, leaving a gap of approximately 9 million and 20 million people, respectively[2][24] - The average monthly pension for retired enterprise employees is 3,090 yuan, which is 2,872 yuan higher than that of rural residents, indicating a disparity in benefits[19][23] - The reimbursement rate for residents' medical insurance is lower than that for urban employees, leading to a weaker willingness to consume medical services[23][24] Group 3: Solutions for Improvement - To enhance consumption willingness, it is crucial to lower the barriers to entry for higher-quality employee insurance, which may require increased fiscal responsibility[7][46] - Proposed solutions include adjusting the payment base to lower the minimum contribution threshold and increasing subsidies for urban and rural residents' pension insurance to bridge the gap between urban and rural benefits[7][46] - The government plans to increase social security and healthcare spending, with a projected growth of 6.1% in social security expenditures in 2025, aiming to improve living standards and stimulate consumption[5][46]

2025年03月27日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3369 | -0.04 | -1.60 | | 深证成份指数 | 10644 | -0.05 | -2.65 | | 沪深300指数 | 3919 | -0.33 | -2.29 | | 创业板指数 | 2140 | -0.26 | -3.34 | | 上证国债指数 | 223 | 0.08 | -0.03 | | 上证基金指数 | 7005 | -0.15 | -2.24 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23483 | 0.60 | -1.13 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8654 | 0.44 | -1.53 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22260 | -0.06 | 1.10 | | 道琼斯指数 | 42455 | -0. ...