Group 1: Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with domestic demand showing signs of improvement and export growth driven by emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [4][6] - Domestic engineering machinery demand is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by a peak in equipment replacement and increased investment in infrastructure projects, with local government bond issuance rising by 84% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [6] - The export value of engineering machinery reached USD 5.152 billion in April 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with total exports from January to April amounting to USD 18.07 billion, up 9.01% year-on-year [6][8] Group 2: Semiconductor Equipment - The domestic semiconductor equipment industry is poised for expansion, with significant capital expenditure expected for 300mm wafer fabs in China, projected to exceed USD 100 billion from 2025 to 2027 [10][13] - The trend towards self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment is accelerating, with low domestic localization rates in critical equipment categories, indicating substantial room for import substitution [11][13] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, and Quick Intelligent [13][25] Group 3: Industrial Mother Machines - The machine tool industry is on an upward cycle due to ongoing domestic substitution and increasing demand for high-end machine tools, with government policies supporting tax incentives and talent development [14][16] - Short-term performance improvements are anticipated as the industry enters a renewal phase [16] Group 4: Traditional Energy Equipment - The traditional energy equipment sector is benefiting from low oil inventories in the U.S. and the upcoming peak consumption season, which is expected to support rising oil prices [17][19] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are influencing market dynamics [19] - Companies such as Nuwei Co., Xizhuang Co., and Jerry Co. are recommended for investment [19][25] Group 5: New Energy Equipment - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is witnessing increased capital expenditure and technological advancements, with a growing number of startups and active financing in the past five years [20][24] - Significant progress in nuclear fusion technology has been made, with multiple records achieved in plasma operation [24] - Investment opportunities include companies like Hezhuan Intelligent, Xizhuang Co., and Jingda Co. [24][25]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a mixed performance last week, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.52%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.75%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 2.34% [5][10] - The Hang Seng Large Cap Index decreased by 1.60%, while the Mid Cap Index rose by 1.93% and the Small Cap Index increased by 2.31% [5][10] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, the non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index at 50.7%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity with increases of 0.2 percentage points for the first two indices and 0.3 percentage points for the composite index compared to the previous month [6][9] - Experts noted that the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience and vitality in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual growth targets [6][9] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on the high-tech manufacturing sector within the Hong Kong stock market due to the positive economic signals indicated by the PMI data [5][6] Market Data - As of July 4, the Hang Seng Index's current PE (TTM) was 10.41 times, approximately at the 55th percentile since January 1, 2007, while the PB was 1.13, at the 40th percentile [7][12] - The southbound capital inflow last week was 13.892 billion HKD, a decrease from the previous week's inflow of 14.489 billion HKD [7][14] - The top five net purchases by southbound funds included SMIC at 2.279 billion HKD, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong at 1.674 billion HKD, Meituan at 1.530 billion HKD, Innovent Biologics at 1.225 billion HKD, and China Construction Bank at 1.096 billion HKD [7][16] - The top five net sales included Alibaba at 6.998 billion HKD, Tencent at 2.015 billion HKD, Xiaomi at 1.274 billion HKD, CanSino Biologics at 0.641 billion HKD, and Pop Mart at 0.413 billion HKD [7][17]

Group 1 - The fundraising enthusiasm improved month-on-month, with a total fundraising scale of 1034.44 billion, an increase of 25.19% compared to the previous month. The top three types of funds raised were index funds at 402.72 billion (approximately 38.93%), bond funds at 260.23 billion, and mixed funds at 241.82 billion [1][14]. - The average subscription days for completed fundraising decreased by 16.67% month-on-month to 17.48 days. Among these, 17 funds completed fundraising within 5 days, while 102 funds took between 5 to 30 days, and 9 funds took more than 30 days [1][18]. Group 2 - The three largest funds raised in June were: Dongfanghong Yingfeng Stable Allocation 6-Month Holding A (FOF, 65.73 billion), Tianhong Zhongdai Investment Grade Corporate Credit Bond Selected Index A (Index Fund, 60.01 billion), and Jingguan Taifu Zhongdai Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Comprehensive A (Index Fund, 60.01 billion). These funds significantly contributed to the fundraising success of Dongfanghong Asset Management (89.28 billion), Tianhong Fund (73.13 billion), and Jingguan Taifu Fund (60.01 billion) [2][21]. - A total of 176 funds participated in the issuance in June, with 119 newly issued funds and 57 continuing funds. The top three types of newly issued funds were index funds (63), mixed funds (23), and bond funds (18) [5][12]. Group 3 - The number of companies participating in fund issuance decreased from 82 in May to 76 in June, with 73 being fund companies and 3 being securities or asset management companies. The highest number of issuances came from Fuguo Fund and Yifangda Fund, each with 8 funds [4]. - The total number of newly issued funds in June decreased by 4.03% month-on-month but increased by 65.28% year-on-year, slightly below the average level of the past three years [8][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The suspension of the "reciprocal tariff" for 90 days has been postponed from July 9 to August 1, keeping investors' risk appetite at a high level. Amid the rising expectation of the second supply - side reform, corresponding investment opportunities are worth exploring. In the equity market, pay attention to industries with low capacity utilization; in the bond market, uncertainty may bring some benefits, but the downward space of interest - rate bonds is limited; for commodities, gold is expected to benefit from the increased risk - aversion sentiment and has short - term long - making opportunities [12]. 3. Summary by Related Information Stock Market - In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 1.62%, 1.72%, and 2.30% respectively, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index fell by 0.60%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52% [2]. - Most A - share sectors or industries rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 1.22%. From a style perspective, in the Shanghai market, blue - chips rose and growth stocks fell; in the Shenzhen market, both blue - chips and growth stocks rose, and the North Securities 50 Index fell. Among 30 CITIC industries, 25 rose, led by steel, banking, building materials, and medicine with weekly gains of over 3.50% [3]. Bond Market - In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), the price of interest - rate bonds rose slightly, and the yield curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell 0.29 BP to 1.6433%. Most maturity yields declined, with larger declines in maturities of 6 months and less [4]. - The capital price dropped significantly, and the central bank conducted a net withdrawal in the open - market operations. As of July 4, 2025, R007 was 1.4881%, down 43.20 BP from June 27, 2025; DR007 was 1.4222%, down 27.46 BP. The central bank net withdrew 1375.3 billion yuan in the past week [5]. - The bond - market leverage level decreased. The 7 - day capital cost is higher than the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase (5 - day average) decreased from 7.77 trillion yuan on June 27, 2025, to 7.60 trillion yuan on July 4, 2025 [6]. - U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward. As of July 4, 2025, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6 BP to 4.35%. Yields of all maturities increased, with larger increases in maturities of 7 years and less [7][8]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Market - The U.S. dollar depreciated, and the price of gold rose. In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), the U.S. dollar index fell 0.28%. The price of London gold spot rose 1.84% to $3331.90 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.94% to $3332.50 per ounce. Domestic Shanghai gold also rose [9]. Policy and Events - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission may raise expectations for the second - round supply - side reform. The meeting mentioned governing low - price and disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Industries such as food manufacturing, chemical raw materials and products manufacturing have low capacity utilization [10]. - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the U.S. officially came into effect, which may increase the U.S. fiscal deficit. The act involves large - scale tax cuts, structural adjustment of fiscal expenditures, and raising the debt ceiling. The CBO estimated that it will add $3.25 trillion in deficits in the next 10 years [11].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25% during the period from June 30 to July 4, 2025, with the steel and building materials sectors performing particularly well [2] - Various types of funds experienced gains, with actively managed equity funds rising by 1.82%, mixed funds increasing by 1.25%, and bond funds up by 0.17% [2] Equity Sector Performance - The steel sector showed strong performance, with the majority of the Shenwan first-level industries experiencing gains, particularly in steel and building materials [8] - Over the last 12 periods, banks and comprehensive sectors have also performed well [8] Fund Performance - Actively managed equity funds focusing on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors performed notably well during this period [11] - The top-performing representative actively managed equity funds included: - Yongying Medical Health A with a return of 15.52% - Hongtu Innovation Healthcare Stock with a return of 13.39% [12] - The top-performing representative index equity funds included: - Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF with a return of 7.58% - Huatai-PB Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF with a return of 6.21% [12] Fixed Income Sector Performance - The bond market indices showed positive movement, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 1.21% and convertible bond funds increasing by 0.91% [14] - The average return for convertible bond funds this year stands at 7.86% [16] QDII Fund Performance - Various QDII funds showed positive performance, particularly in alternative asset categories, with energy commodity QDII funds rising by 2.08% and gold-related QDII funds increasing by 1.62% [17] - The top-performing QDII funds included: - E Fund Global Pharmaceutical Industry RMB A with a return of 6.53% - Huatai-PB Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF with a return of 5.47% [19]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: A-Share Industry Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses six factors—capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability—to build a scoring system for industry evaluation[17] **Model Construction Process**: - **Capital Factor**: Based on industry net inflow rate of major funds - **Valuation Factor**: Uses the valuation percentile of the industry over the past year - **Sentiment Factor**: Derived from the proportion of rising constituent stocks - **Momentum Factor**: Based on MACD indicator - **Overbought/Oversold Factor**: Uses RSI indicator - **Profitability Factor**: Based on the consensus forecast EPS percentile of the industry over the past year[17] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive scoring system to assess industry rotation trends[17] - **Model Name**: Consensus Stock Selection Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies high-growth industries and selects stocks with high similarity between high-frequency capital flow trends and stock price trends[20] **Model Construction Process**: - Filters high-growth industries at the Shenwan secondary industry level based on the past 30-day performance - Calculates momentum, valuation, and frequency of price increases for stocks within these industries - Uses high-frequency minute-level capital flow data to compute changes in inflow/outflow for each stock - Selects stocks with the highest similarity between capital flow trends and price trends within the top-performing secondary industries[20] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks with strong capital flow and price trend alignment[20] --- Model Backtesting Results - **A-Share Industry Rotation Model**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Comprehensive (+10), Non-ferrous Metals (+10), Electronics (+7)[18][19] - **Low Scoring Industries**: Banking (-15), Petrochemicals (-9), Transportation (-8)[19] - **Consensus Stock Selection Model**: - **Selected Industries**: Communication Equipment, Ground Armament II, Components[21] - **Selected Stocks**: - Communication Equipment: New Yisheng, Move Communication, Feiling Kesi, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Meixin Technology - Ground Armament II: Great Wall Military Industry, Optical Shares, Inner Mongolia First Machine, Sweet Qin Equipment, Ganfa Technology - Components: Jingwang Electronics, Deep South Circuit, Fangbang Shares, Zhongjing Electronics, Shenghong Technology[21] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Capital Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures industry net inflow rate of major funds[17] **Construction Process**: Aggregates daily net inflow data for transactions exceeding 10,000 shares or 200,000 yuan[12] **Evaluation**: Reflects the strength of capital flow within industries[17] - **Factor Name**: Valuation Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses industry valuation percentile over the past year[17] **Construction Process**: Calculates the relative valuation position of the industry within a one-year window[17] **Evaluation**: Indicates whether an industry is undervalued or overvalued[17] - **Factor Name**: Sentiment Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on the proportion of rising constituent stocks[17] **Construction Process**: Computes the percentage of stocks within the industry that have increased in price[17] **Evaluation**: Captures market sentiment towards the industry[17] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses MACD indicator to measure price trends[17] **Construction Process**: Applies MACD calculations to industry-level data[17] **Evaluation**: Identifies industries with strong upward or downward trends[17] - **Factor Name**: Overbought/Oversold Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses RSI indicator to assess market conditions[17] **Construction Process**: Calculates RSI values for industries to determine overbought or oversold conditions[17] **Evaluation**: Helps identify potential reversals in industry trends[17] - **Factor Name**: Profitability Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year[17] **Construction Process**: Aggregates EPS forecasts and calculates relative percentile rankings[17] **Evaluation**: Reflects the earnings potential of industries[17] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Capital Factor**: Comprehensive (++), Non-ferrous Metals (++), Electronics (++), Banking (---), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Valuation Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (++), Electronics (+), Banking (-), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Sentiment Factor**: Comprehensive (-), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+++), Banking (--), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Momentum Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+), Banking (--), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Overbought/Oversold Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+), Banking (--), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Profitability Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+++), Banking (---), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The release of the "Measures" on July 1, 2025, by the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission aims to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs through 16 specific initiatives [2][3] - The focus is on enhancing support for innovative drug research and development, facilitating their inclusion in basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance directories, and improving clinical application and payment capabilities [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the approval of Class 1 innovative drugs, with 48 approved in 2024, which is more than five times the number in 2018 [4] - The time taken for new drugs to be included in the medical insurance directory has decreased from approximately five years to about one year, with around 80% of innovative drugs being included within two years of market launch [4] Summary by Sections Policy Support - The "Measures" provide a framework for utilizing medical insurance data to support innovative drug research, focusing on real innovation and differentiated innovation [3] - The measures include establishing a commercial health insurance directory for innovative drugs and exploring the collaborative development of basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance [3] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the average reduction in prices for simplified renewal drugs was only 1.2% in 2024, with nearly 80% renewing at original prices [4] - The commercial health insurance market has seen rapid growth, with premium income reaching 977.3 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group as potential investment opportunities in the innovative drug sector [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the recent launch of various products by Xiaomi, including AI glasses and the YU7 electric vehicle, indicating a strong push into the AI and automotive sectors [8][9] - The semiconductor storage market is showing signs of recovery, driven by production cuts from major manufacturers and a significant increase in downstream demand, particularly for high-end storage chips due to the AI boom [9][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the semiconductor storage market began to recover in late March 2025, with major manufacturers announcing production cuts and downstream clients depleting their inventories [9] - The demand for DRAM, especially DDR4, has surged due to production halts and inventory replenishment by buyers [9] Product Launches - Xiaomi's recent product launch event introduced several new devices, including AI glasses weighing 40g, featuring a 12MP camera and a battery life of 8.6 hours, priced from 1999 to 2999 yuan [8] - The YU7 electric vehicle boasts a maximum power of 690PS, a top speed of 253 km/h, and a range of up to 835 km, with pre-orders exceeding 200,000 units within three minutes [8] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as PCB, ODM, AIOT, and AIDC for potential investment opportunities, particularly in light of the AI consumption boom and domestic semiconductor advancements [10] - Specific companies to watch include 泰凌微, 恒玄科技, and 潍柴重机, among others, as they are positioned to benefit from these trends [10]

Core Insights - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, revealing its vulnerabilities under the uncertainty of US policies. Issues such as regionalism, inflation, debt pressure, and structured risks in asset valuations are still unfolding. The continuous depreciation of the US dollar has made European and emerging markets more attractive to capital, while precious metals like gold have seen significant price increases, indicating a reshaping of the global market. In response to the current market environment, it is advised to focus on certainty and make asset allocations based on a high safety margin [1][16][21]. Market Overview - As of June 29, 2025, global equity assets performed well, with MSCI global returns at 4.01% and emerging markets at 6.15%, slightly outperforming developed markets. The domestic market also showed strong performance, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 3.13%, particularly driven by growth stocks which rose by 4.87% [7][13]. - The global economic pressure remains significant, with manufacturing PMI in some regions still below the expansion threshold, indicating risks of a peak in the global economic growth cycle. Concurrently, US stocks have seen valuations driven up by AI and buybacks, which has weakened corporate resilience [19][20]. Asset Allocation Strategy - **Equity Funds**: The strategy should focus on a "core + opportunities" approach, balancing safety and returns. Core allocations should prioritize high earnings certainty, high profits, and high dividends, while opportunity allocations should leverage policy implementation, confidence-driven investments, and technology empowerment [3][30]. - **Fixed Income Funds**: It is recommended to lower expectations while seeking stable returns. Mid to short-duration funds are seen as more cost-effective, as the market's excessive pursuit of long-duration bonds has diminished their risk-return profile [3][4]. - **QDII Funds**: Attention should be paid to marginal changes affecting expectations. For equity QDII, caution is advised regarding structured valuation risks, while for oil QDII, geopolitical factors are becoming increasingly significant. Gold QDII is expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [4][37][40]. Domestic Economic Insights - The domestic economy has shown resilience, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, driven by consumption and exports. Industrial value-added growth was steady at 5.8%, with significant contributions from sectors like new energy vehicles and robotics [21][28]. - Consumer spending has been robust, with retail sales in May growing by 6.4% year-on-year, supported by government subsidies and promotional activities. However, structural income disparities remain a challenge for sustained consumption growth [26][28]. Commodity Market Dynamics - Geopolitical issues and inflation have been influencing global commodity prices. The escalation of conflicts has pushed oil prices higher, while the depreciation of the dollar has led to fluctuations in gold prices. Future trading logic for oil and gold will likely continue to be driven by geopolitical and risk-averse sentiments [37][49]. - The long-term stability of oil prices will depend on global economic growth and demand, with current PMI data indicating potential declines in demand. The supply side, particularly OPEC+ production decisions, will also play a crucial role in short-term price movements [45][49].

Core Insights - The report proposes a dynamic allocation strategy based on the value range of converging stocks in four major sectors: technology, gold, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods, validated through empirical analysis for risk control and return enhancement [3][9]. - From September 1, 2024, to June 11, 2025, the ETF portfolio based on converging stocks achieved a return of 29.94%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.34, and a maximum drawdown of 5.17%, significantly outperforming an equal-weighted ETF allocation strategy [3][40]. Group 1: Technology Sector - The converging stock for the technology sector is Jinghe Integrated, utilizing a 3.6x PS valuation model, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.93 during the backtest period, effectively controlling risk and outperforming the Sci-Tech 50 Index [3][9][14]. - The strategy based on Jinghe Integrated yielded a return of 48.49% from September 1, 2024, to June 11, 2025, compared to the Sci-Tech 50 Index's return of 41.31% [14][15]. Group 2: Gold Sector - The converging stock for the gold sector is Chifeng Gold, based on a 16.2x PE valuation model, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.38. Although the strategy did not outperform the index, it significantly reduced drawdown risk [3][23][24]. - The strategy effectively controlled drawdown during a strong performance period for gold stocks, despite not beating the index [24]. Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector - The converging stock for the pharmaceutical sector is East China Pharmaceutical, using a 16.3x PE valuation model, achieving a Sharpe ratio of 1.83, effectively controlling drawdown while enhancing returns [3][31]. - The strategy based on East China Pharmaceutical managed to improve returns during a period of significant volatility in the innovative drug index [31]. Group 4: Consumer Sector - The converging stock for the consumer sector is Kweichow Moutai, with a bottom valuation of approximately 18.5x PE based on 2024 expected net profit, achieving a Sharpe ratio of 1.7 [3][35]. - The strategy effectively controlled drawdown during a volatile period for the consumer sector [35]. Group 5: Equal-Weighted Strategy - The equal-weighted ETF portfolio from September 1, 2024, to June 11, 2025, yielded a return of 29.31%, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.3 and a maximum drawdown of 15.48% [39]. - The converging stock strategy yielded a similar return of 29.94% but with a significantly improved Sharpe ratio of 2.34 and a reduced maximum drawdown of 5.17%, indicating effective risk control [40].