[Table_Rating] 增持（维持） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 | [行业Table_Industry] : | 通信 | | --- | --- | | 日期: | shzqdatemark 2025年02月06日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: 刘京昭 E-mail: liujingzhao@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870523040005 联系人: 杨昕东 SAC 编号: S0870123090008 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -5% 4% 12% 20% 28% 36% 44% 53% 61% 02/24 04/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 02/25 通信 沪深300 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： | | | --- | --- | | 《CPO 引领数据互联发展热潮，多环节设 | | | 备商有望受益》 | | | | ——2025 年 01 月 22 日 | | 《AI 硬件行情开启，把握算力预期差方 | | | 向》 | | | | ——2025 年 01 月 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector and highlights the performance release of leading companies in the new materials sector, particularly in electronic materials [4][10] - It notes that while the number of mergers and acquisitions in the cement industry decreased in 2024 compared to 2023, the scale of these mergers reached a five-year high, increasing by 80.17% year-on-year [4][5] - The report suggests that leading cement companies are enhancing their profitability through mergers and acquisitions, both domestically and internationally [5][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Cement Industry - The average national cement price was 514.48 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week decline of 1.2% [7] - The cement output for the week of January 24, 2025, was 2.255 million tons, showing a 16.1% decrease week-on-week [7] - The report indicates a weak market demand leading to a further decline in cement prices before the Spring Festival [7] New Materials - The report highlights the strong recovery in global semiconductor and display market demand, benefiting companies like Feikai Materials, which expects a net profit growth of 83.66%-138.76% in 2024 [6][10] - It recommends focusing on leading electronic materials companies as they are expected to release strong performance results [10] Flat Glass - The report notes a 0.8% increase in the price of flat glass as of January 20, 2025, while inventory levels decreased by 49.7 million weight boxes [8] - The production of float glass remained stable, with a daily output of 157,400 tons as of January 24, 2025 [8] Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of photovoltaic glass remained stable, with 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated glass priced at 12 RMB/square meter and 19.5 RMB/square meter, respectively [9] Fiberglass - The price of fiberglass remained stable during the reporting period, indicating a steady market [9]

Market Performance - US stock markets mostly declined during the week of the Spring Festival (January 27 - February 2, 2025), with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices falling by 1.64% and 1.00%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.27%[2] - The Tokyo Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.90%, while the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 1.91%[2] Bond Market - US Treasury prices rose during the same week, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 5 basis points to 4.58% as of January 31, 2025[3] - The yield curve flattened, with yields on maturities of 3 years and above declining, while yields on 1-year and shorter maturities remained stable or increased[3] Commodity Prices - Gold prices surged significantly, reaching a historical high of $2,812.05 per ounce, an increase of 1.27% during the Spring Festival week[4] - COMEX gold futures peaked at $2,829.00 per ounce[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar strengthened by 0.96%, while the offshore RMB depreciated by 1.07% against the dollar, reaching an exchange rate of 7.3221[5] - The onshore RMB exchange rate was 7.2650 as of January 27, 2025, indicating potential depreciation pressure post-holiday[5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50% during its January meeting, citing steady economic expansion and rising inflation[6] - Market expectations suggest the earliest rate cut could occur in June, with a probability of 63.5% for rates to fall below 4.25-4.50%[8] Trade Policy - On February 1, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order imposing additional tariffs: a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico[9] - Canada and Mexico may respond with countermeasures against these tariffs[9] Economic Indicators - Movie box office revenue during the Spring Festival period increased by 25.7% year-on-year, totaling 8.24 billion yuan, with an average daily revenue of 1.373 billion yuan[11] - In contrast, tourism prices in Hainan showed mixed trends, with team accommodation prices rising by 7.77% and individual accommodation prices declining by 6.77%[11] Risk Factors - Economic data or corporate earnings may underperform expectations, and US tariff actions could impact A-share investor risk appetite[12] - Domestic growth policies may fall short of market expectations[12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the emergence of the Deepseek-R1 model, which has disrupted the AI landscape, showcasing significant cost advantages over competitors like OpenAI [3] - The report emphasizes the rapid iteration of AI models by major companies, indicating a competitive landscape that is intensifying [4] - Financial results from major overseas companies, such as Meta and Microsoft, demonstrate strong growth and increased capital expenditures, particularly in AI-related sectors [5][8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the computer industry, particularly the advancements in AI models and their implications for market competition [1] Key Developments - Deepseek released the open-source Deepseek-R1 model, achieving performance levels comparable to OpenAI's models while offering a cost-effective API pricing structure [3] - OpenAI and Alibaba's Tongyi Qwen have also launched new models, indicating a robust competitive environment in AI model development [4] Financial Performance - Meta reported a Q4 revenue of $48.385 billion, a 21% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $20.838 billion, up 49% [5] - Microsoft reported Q2 revenue of $69.632 billion, a 12% increase, with Azure cloud business revenue growing by 31% driven by AI demand [8] - ASML's Q4 net sales reached €9.3 billion, with a gross margin of 51.7% and a net profit of €2.7 billion [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI computing, such as Haiguang Information, Cambricon, and others, as well as AI applications like Kingsoft Office and iFlytek [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - Domestic large model innovations are advancing, aiming to catch up with the US. Notable developments include DeepSeek's release of the DeepSeek-R1 model, which significantly enhances inference capabilities at a competitive price point compared to OpenAI's offerings [2]. - The AI agent landscape is accelerating, with companies like Zhiyun and OpenAI launching new intelligent agents that enhance user interaction and task completion efficiency [3][6]. - The competition for computing power is intensifying, with significant investments announced in AI infrastructure, including a $100 billion initial investment plan by major tech firms in the US [7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, while the computer index increased by 3.95%, outperforming major indices [1]. AI Computing Power - Companies such as ByteDance and MiniMax are making strides in AI model development, with models that outperform leading international counterparts in various benchmarks [2]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for AI computing power, with significant capital expenditures planned by major players in the industry [7][8]. AI Applications - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI computing power and applications, including Haiguang Information, Cambricon, and Kingsoft Office, among others [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that China's integrated circuit exports reached a historical high in 2024, with an export value of approximately $159.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.4% [5] - The recovery in demand for smartphones and PCs, along with the rapid development of generative AI and smart vehicles, has positively impacted integrated circuit exports [5] - The report anticipates a comprehensive recovery in the semiconductor sector in 2025, with an emphasis on the potential for profit recovery among related companies [7] Market Overview - The SW Electronics Index increased by 2.82% from January 20 to January 24, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.29 percentage points [4] - Among the six sub-sectors, components, consumer electronics, and other electronics II showed significant gains, with increases of 6.96%, 6.06%, and 5.79% respectively [4] Smartphone Market Insights - In 2024, China's smartphone sales are projected to grow by 1.5%, marking the first increase since 2018, although the fourth quarter saw a decline of 3.2% year-on-year [6] - Huawei regained its position as the market leader in Q4 2024, with a 15.5% increase in sales, driven by the launch of the Nova 13 and Mate 70 series [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued semiconductor design stocks with real performance and low PE/PEG ratios, as well as companies in various segments such as AIOT SoC chips, analog chips, and semiconductor equipment materials [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The beauty and personal care industry is expected to see a continued increase in medical beauty penetration rates, with a recommendation to focus on companies such as Juzhi Biotech, Aimeike, Jinbo Biological, Jiangsu Wuzhong, Huadong Medicine, Meili Tianyuan Medical Health, and Langzi Co., Ltd. [9] - The cosmetics channel is experiencing traffic differentiation, with intensified competition among brands. Leading domestic brands are expected to maintain their competitive edge through a combination of brand, channel, product, and operational advantages [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Performance - Runben Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 300 to 310 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.73% to 37.15%. The fourth quarter net profit is projected to be 39 to 49 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.33% to an increase of 8.89% [1] - Jiangsu Wuzhong's Aisufi is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 55 to 80 million yuan in 2024, turning a profit compared to the previous year. The fourth quarter net profit is estimated to be 9.92 to 34.92 million yuan, also indicating a turnaround [1] - Jinbo Biological is projected to achieve a net profit of 719 to 737 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 139.83% to 145.83%. The fourth quarter net profit is expected to be 199 to 217 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 84.26% to 100.93% [2] Product Development - Wanmei Biological has invested in Shengzhirunhe, focusing on the research and application of regenerative medical materials, particularly in the medical beauty sector [2] - Huadong Medicine's subsidiary has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for its high-end hyaluronic acid product MaiLi Extreme, which is designed for facial aesthetic procedures [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [15] Core Views - The light industry sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in real estate and the implementation of the old-for-new policy, leading to sustained consumer enthusiasm in home goods. This is expected to improve the outlook for cyclical sectors like home furnishings, with valuations likely to recover [2] - The export chain is anticipated to benefit from the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, with ongoing overseas replenishment demand for products such as thermos cups and office furniture [2] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Xiangxin Home, Jiayi Co., Lege Co., and Henglin Co., which are positioned well in the light industry export chain [2] Summary by Sections Light Industry - The light industry is seeing improved expectations due to favorable policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption. The home goods sector is particularly highlighted for its potential recovery [2] - Companies like Xiangxin Home are focusing on expanding their own brands and have established over 150 small to medium-sized stores in the U.S. [3] - Jiayi Co. is projected to achieve a net profit of 725-745 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 53.59%-57.83% [4] Home Furnishings - Major players in the home furnishings sector, such as Sophia and Oppein, are expected to see varying performance in 2024, with Sophia's net profit projected to grow by 5%-15% due to the implementation of the old-for-new policy [5] - Oppein is facing challenges with a projected revenue decline of 10%-20%, but is pursuing a "whole home" strategy to enhance its market position [5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing a weak recovery in consumer spending, but policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to enhance consumer confidence [10] - The report notes that the overall retail sales of clothing and textiles are expected to recover quickly in 2025, driven by a favorable consumption environment [13] - The export of textiles and apparel from China is projected to reach $301.1 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [12] Cross-Border E-commerce - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to continue its rapid growth, with imports and exports increasing by 10.8% in 2024 [14] - The report suggests that there is significant potential for growth in overseas warehouses and cross-border e-commerce platforms [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry is experiencing structural opportunities, particularly in high-end and real estate liquor segments, which are expected to meet consumer demand effectively [15][30] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies and emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, especially during the upcoming Spring Festival [3][4] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong demand and structural opportunities in the liquor sector, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Jinshiyuan [15][30] - For beer, it recommends companies like Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer, which are optimizing product structures and expanding channels [15][31] - In the soft drink sector, East Peng Beverage is highlighted for its national expansion and precise channel marketing [15][31] - The report also points to opportunities in the seasoning industry with companies like Haitian Flavoring and Zhongju Gaoxin, which are expected to see profit recovery [15][31] - For frozen foods, companies like Anjixian and Qianwei Central Kitchen are noted for their potential growth due to catering demand [15][31] - In the frozen baking sector, Lihai Foods is recognized for its internal reforms and cost improvements [15][31] - The report identifies snack companies like Yanjinpuzi and Qiaqia Foods as having significant growth potential due to successful transformations [15][31] Market Performance Review - The SW Food and Beverage Index fell by 2.10%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.64 percentage points [33] - The report notes that the food and beverage sector ranked 30th among 31 industries in terms of performance this week [33] Industry Key Data Tracking - In the liquor sector, the total production of liquor in 2024 was 4.145 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year decline of 1.8% [20][46] - The report indicates that the average price of high-end liquor is around 1218.13 yuan per 500ml bottle [46] - For beer, the total production in December 2024 was 2.411 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.20% [48]

Group 1: Core Insights - Carbon pricing is a crucial tool for promoting transformative climate solutions and limiting global warming to specific levels through significant reductions in CO2 emissions [3][4]. - The current global carbon market covers 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions, with 36 operational carbon markets and 22 jurisdictions in various stages of consideration and policy development [3][4]. - The average carbon price in 2023 shows that about two-thirds of carbon markets have prices below $10, while approximately one-sixth have prices between $10 and $70, and another one-sixth have prices above $70 [3][4]. Group 2: Global Carbon Market Status - The global carbon market has expanded significantly since its inception, with the proportion of emissions covered increasing threefold since the EU carbon market started in 2005 [35][36]. - The carbon market is categorized into voluntary and compliance markets, with compliance markets further divided into carbon offset credit mechanisms and emissions trading systems (ETS) [29][30]. - The carbon market's development is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, regulatory changes, and the interaction with other climate and energy policies [39][40]. Group 3: Future Trends and Projections - The carbon market is expected to see an expansion in industry coverage, stricter total cap settings, and a shift from free allocation of allowances to auctioning [45][46]. - Predictions for carbon prices in 2030 suggest a range of $226-385 per ton of CO2 for limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C and $63-127 per ton for limiting it to 2°C [49][50]. - The EU carbon market has experienced significant price fluctuations since its establishment, with prices rising sharply in recent years, reaching historical highs [52][53]. Group 4: China's Carbon Market Development - China's carbon market has evolved through three phases, with the current phase featuring a national carbon trading market alongside regional markets [56][58]. - The national carbon market covers 2,257 key emission units, accounting for over 40% of the country's CO2 emissions, making it the largest market for greenhouse gas emissions globally [64][65]. - The voluntary carbon market in China is set to launch in January 2024, complementing the existing mandatory trading system and enhancing the overall carbon pricing mechanism [56][58].