宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/4/15 3月贸易数据点评—— 出口为何大超预期？ 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、基数因素叠加抢出口效应，出口同比明显超出市场预计 2、量价及政策因素限制进口回升空间 图表1：贸易数据主要分项 ➢ 中国3月出口（以美元计价，下同）同比增长12.4%，市场预期增长3.5%，1-2月增长2.3%。 ➢ 中国3月进口同比下降4.3%，市场预期下降4.3%，1-2月下降8.4%。 ➢ 中国3月贸易顺差1026.4亿美元，市场预期783.0亿美元，1-2月为1705.2亿美元。 1、基数因素叠加抢出口效应，出口同比明显超出市场预计 ➢出口增势大超预期。3月出口（以美元计价）同比增长2.3%，较今年1-2月增速大幅上行10.1个百分点，也显著超出 市场一致预期。如何理解本月出口同比的明显反弹？我们认为有去年同期基数走低、抢出口两方面因素的影响，两 者分别对应着春节错位以及规避对等关税加征风险的逻辑。一则去年春 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司点评 买入/维持 长安汽车(000625) 目标价: 昨收盘:12.58 汽车央企航母打造世界级汽车集团 证券分析师：刘虹辰 电话：010-88321818 E-MAIL：liuhc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010002 (40%) (28%) (16%) (4%) 8% 20% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 99.14/82.61 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 1,247.19/1,03 | | | 9.2 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 18.09/11.32 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<长安汽车：华为车 BU，自主新引 望>>--2024-09-04 事件：公司发布 2024 年报，营业总收入 1597.33 亿元，同比+5.58%； 归母净利润 73.21 亿元，同比-35.37%；扣非净利润 25.87 亿元，同比- 31.59%。2025 年第一季度，公司归属于上市公司股东 ...

[Table_Title] 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Message]2025-04-15 基础化工指数偏离修复模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 计算区间内申万一级基础化工指数收盘价相对沪深 300 指数的值 cl。 计算 cl 在区间内的回撤序列 W。 结果评估： 区间策略总收益：58.12% 标的买入并持有收益：-0.92% 总超额：59.04% 最大回撤：21.35% 最长回撤时间：504 交易日 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 [Table_Summary] 报 告 ◼ 设计原理：模型假定标的价格走势相对参考标的存在反复的偏离-回归循环， 且偏离程度是存在极限的，但并不要求单次偏离-回归的时间周期存在明显的 规律性，即单纯的空间型策略。此外，已有样本区间已 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption of land reserve special bonds is expected to provide financial support for local governments to acquire and recycle land, improve the financial situation of real - estate enterprises, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market from the land side [72]. - More regions are expected to follow the practices of provinces that have issued special bonds, and the issuance speed of land reserve special bonds is likely to accelerate. However, the policy effects need further observation due to issues such as mortgage - debt relationships and acquisition pricing [3][72]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Local Government Special Bond Investment Areas Have Expanded - Local government bonds are classified into general bonds and special bonds based on repayment sources. In 2024, local government special bonds totaled 7.7 trillion yuan in issuance, with 4.0 trillion yuan in new special bonds and 3.7 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds. By the end of 2024, the balance of special bonds was 30.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 65% of local government debt [12]. - The investment areas of special bonds have expanded. In 2025, four new investment areas were added, including supporting the acquisition of existing commercial housing, revitalizing idle land, developing infrastructure for emerging strategic industries, and renovating old urban areas [15]. - From 2019 - 2024, the areas with relatively high investment of new special bonds were municipal and industrial park infrastructure, shantytown renovation, and healthcare, with scale proportions of 27.4%, 13.4%, and 7.2% respectively [15]. 3.2 Historical Review of Land Reserve Special Bonds - Before 2016, land reserve institutions could borrow land reserve loans from banks. In 2016, borrowing land reserve loans from banks was suspended, and land reserve funds were raised through channels such as local government special bonds, state - owned land revenue funds, and land transfer revenues [24][26]. - Land reserve special bonds were officially launched in 2017 and suspended in September 2019. From July 2017 to September 2019, a total of 426 land reserve special bonds were issued, with a total amount of 1491.4 billion yuan [30][31]. 3.3 Relevant Policies and Background for the New Round of Resuming Land Reserve Special Bonds - Since 2024, central meetings have introduced policies to support the revitalization of idle land. In October 2024, the Ministry of Finance allowed special bonds to be used for land reserve [35]. - In November 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a notice providing specific guidance on using special bond funds to acquire idle land, aiming to reduce the scale of idle land, improve the land supply - demand relationship, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [36]. - In March 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a new regulation on land reserve special bonds, clarifying requirements for bond issuance and fund use [37]. 3.4 Progress of Local Plans to Use Special Bonds to Acquire Idle Land - As of April 10, according to incomplete statistics from the China Index Academy, 848 parcels of idle land were planned to be acquired with special bonds, with a total area of over 40 million square meters and a total amount of 128.2 billion yuan. The pace of announcements has accelerated since March [46]. - Fourteen out of 31 provinces and municipalities have announced plans to use special bonds to acquire idle land. Guangdong Province leads with a planned acquisition amount close to 50 billion yuan [47]. - Among the announced parcels, residential land accounts for 63.5%, commercial and office land for 25.8%, and industrial land for 7.3%. Most of the acquired land was transferred between 2020 - 2024 [52]. 3.5 Issuance of Land Reserve Special Bonds for Acquiring Idle Land - As of April 10, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Hunan have issued special bonds for acquiring idle land, with a total amount of approximately 40.2 billion yuan, covering 166 projects [3][54]. - Since February, Beijing has issued special bonds involving 25 land reserve projects, with a total issuance of 11.687 billion yuan, mainly for primary land development [60]. - In March, Sichuan issued special bonds involving 3 land reserve projects, with 330 million yuan used to acquire 2 parcels of idle land in Chengdu and Yibin [68]. - In April, Hunan issued land reserve special bonds worth 9.415 billion yuan, accounting for 41.5% of the provincial special bond funds for project construction [71]. 3.6 Investment Suggestions - The resumption of land reserve special bonds can support local governments in land acquisition and recycling, improve the financial situation of real - estate enterprises, and promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [72]. - More regions are expected to follow the practices of provinces that have issued special bonds, and the issuance speed of land reserve special bonds is likely to accelerate. However, the policy effects need further observation, and it is recommended to pay attention to relevant local state - owned enterprises and developers [3][72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price based on the last closing price of 36.40 [1][8] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 54.42 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.04 billion yuan, down 10.52% [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.59%, and a net profit of 1.38 billion yuan, up 10.42% [4][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.5 billion yuan to shareholders, with a payout ratio of 54.70% [4] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from various segments was as follows: smart home cameras at 29.48 billion yuan (-1.38%), smart entry at 7.48 billion yuan (+47.87%), smart service robots at 1.66 billion yuan (+265.12%), and cloud platform services at 10.52 billion yuan (+22.87%) [5] - Domestic sales reached 34.87 billion yuan (+5.65%), while overseas sales were 19.12 billion yuan (+26.42%), indicating strong growth in international markets [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 42.55%, showing a slight decrease of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 10.00%, down 0.13 percentage points [6] - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 14.28%, 3.06%, 14.75%, and -1.64%, respectively, with management expenses showing continuous optimization [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.91 billion yuan, 8.73 billion yuan, and 10.95 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.88 yuan, 1.11 yuan, and 1.39 yuan [8][9] - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 17.60% for 2025, 17.20% for 2026, and 15.80% for 2027 [9][11] Industry Outlook - The report highlights the potential for growth in the smart home industry, driven by advancements in AI and privacy capabilities, which are expected to enhance the company's competitive edge [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 46.00, compared to the last closing price of 35.82 [1]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 1.534 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.85%, and a net profit of 255 million, up 54.64% [4][5]. - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan to enhance employee motivation, granting 2.5 million restricted shares, which is 2.31% of the total share capital [6]. - The company anticipates revenue growth for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of 1.671 billion, 1.803 billion, and 1.993 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 271 million, 300 million, and 337 million [7]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 32.19% in 2024, an increase of 9.04 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-throughput heat exchanger sales and increased export revenue [5]. - The company reported a significant increase in sales orders, totaling 1.541 billion, a year-on-year growth of 3.74%, with a backlog of 1.719 billion at the end of 2024 [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.47, 2.72, and 3.07 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18.62, 14.51, and 13.15 [7].

流动性与仓位周观察——4 月第 2 期：交投活跃度上升 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 证券分析师：张冬冬 2025 年 04 月 14 日 投资策略 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 资金净流出，交投活跃度上升。上周全 A 成交额 8.06 万亿，较前一 周上升，换手率 9.93%，较前一周上升，融资供给端中基金、ETF 净流入， 两融资金净流出；资金需求端 IPO 规模为 18.1 亿元，再融资规模 77.99 亿元。市场资金合计净流出 238.46 亿元，流动性转弱。 国内流动性：上周公开市场操作净回笼资金 2892 亿元，DR007 下行， R007 同步下行，R007 与 DR007 利差扩大，金融机构间流动性未见明显分 层。利差来看，10 年期国债收益率下降 6bp，1 年期国债 ...

2025 年 04 月 14 日 公司点评 买入/维持 九号公司(689009) 目标价: 昨收盘:56.90 九号公司：2024Q4 扣非净利润增速亮眼，机器人业务表现靓丽 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) 10% 40% 70% 100% 130% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 九号公司 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 0.72/0.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 40.81/31.28 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 68.32/27.71 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<九号公司：以旧换新+新强标助推 高端化利好两轮车品类，割草机器人 业务增长强劲>>--2024-12-19 证券分析师：孟昕 E-MAIL：mengxin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524020001 证券分析师：赵梦菲 E-MAIL：zhaomf@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525040001 研究助理：金桐羽 电话：021-58502206 E-MAIL：jin ...

2025 年 4 月 14 日 行业周报 看好/维持 基础化工 基础化工 化工周报（4/7-4/13）： 溴素价格持续强势 ◼ 走势比较 相关研究报告 << 化 工 新 材 料 周 报 （ 20250331- 20250406）：溴素价格继续上涨，EVA 价格趋稳>>--2025-04-07 <<国光股份 2024 年报点评： 低成本 +新商业模式推动，公司业绩创新 高>>--2025-04-03 <<华鲁恒升 2024 年报点评： 双基地 效能提升，公司业绩韧性凸显>>-- 2025-04-03 证券分析师：王亮 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 证券分析师：王海涛 E-MAIL：wanght@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523010001 报告摘要 1.重点行业和产品情况跟踪 供应紧张推动溴素价格大幅上涨。本周进口量减少，叠加企业库 存偏低，整体来看溴素供应仍有压力。2025 年 1-2 月份，中国共进口 13491.848 吨溴素,进口量环比减少 32.23%。其中，从以色列进口溴 6842.03 吨，占总进口来源的 51%；中 ...

2025 年 04 月 14 日 行业周报 看好/维持 纺织服装 纺织服装 纺服&零售周报:关税政策动态演变下，制造风险缓和，内需潜力 凸显(2025.4.7-4.13) ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 纺织服装 沪深300 相关研究报告 <<纺服&零售周报：对等关税超预期， 关注内需的配置机会(2025.3.31- 4.6)>>--2025-04-06 <<福瑞达 24 年财报点评：化妆品表 现稳健，期待业务调整后弹性释 放>>--2025-04-03 <<森马服饰 24 年财报点评：童装表 现持续亮眼，全域实现健康发展>>-- 2025-04-02 证券分析师：郭彬 电话： E-MAIL：guobin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190519090001 报告摘要 本周财报更新：1）安踏体育：25Q1 公司流水同增中双位数，其中安 踏牌/FILA 实现高单位数增长，其他品牌（包括迪桑特、可隆、MAIA）流 水同增 65-70%，库销维持健康，整体运营表现超预期； ...