Quantitative Model and Construction - **Model Name**: Relative Index Trend Tracking Model for Steel Industry - **Model Construction Idea**: The model assumes that the price movement of the target has strong local continuity, with prices always in a certain trend. Reversal trends are assumed to last significantly shorter than trend continuation periods. In cases of narrow consolidation, the model assumes the continuation of the previous trend. For large-scale trends, given a short observation window, the movement is expected to follow the local trend within the window. When a reversal occurs, the price change at the start and end of the observation window will exceed the range caused by random fluctuations, thus filtering out random noise[3][4] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the difference between the closing price on day T and day T-20, denoted as `del` 2. Calculate the volatility (`Vol`) over the period from T-20 to T (excluding T) 3. If the absolute value of `del` exceeds N times `Vol`, the price is considered to have exited the original oscillation range, forming a trend. The trend direction (long or short) corresponds to the sign of `del` 4. If the absolute value of `del` is less than or equal to N times `Vol`, the current movement is considered a continuation of the previous trend (same direction as day T-1) 5. For the steel industry, N is set to 1 to capture smaller wave opportunities due to higher market volatility compared to bonds 6. The model tracks both long and short returns, combining them for final evaluation[3] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is not suitable for direct application to the relative value of the SW First-Level Steel Index. It underperformed during the tracking period, with significant downward trends in specific sub-periods. The model's annualized return was lower than the total return of the index, and it remained in a drawdown state for most of the tracking period[4] Model Backtest Results - **Annualized Return**: -15.42%[3] - **Annualized Volatility**: 15.00%[3] - **Sharpe Ratio**: -1.03[3] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 34.62%[3] - **Total Return of Index During Period**: -9.08%[3]

2025 年 05 月 26 日 投资策略 估值与盈利周观察——5 月第 3 期：红利领涨 ◼ 上证综合指数走势（近三年） (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/5/27 24/8/7 24/10/18 24/12/29 25/3/11 25/5/22 证券分析师：张冬冬 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：吴步升 E-MAIL：wubs@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110002 市场估值普跌，医药生物、有色金属领涨。上周宽基指数估值普跌， 红利表现最优，成长表现最弱。从 PE、PB 偏离度的角度看，食品饮料、 农林牧渔、公用事业等行业估值较为便宜。向前看，本周市场 ERP 小幅上 升，处于一倍标准差附近。 市场表现：红利、周期、消费表现最好；科创 50、成长、国证 2000 表现最弱。 行业表现：医药生物、综合、有色金属涨幅前三，计算机、机械设备、 通信表现最弱。 相对估值：创业板指/沪深 300 相对 PE 上升，创业板值/沪深 300 相 对 PB 下降。 全 A ERP：ERP 小幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The company has shown rapid growth in its pig farming business, with a significant increase in the number of pigs sold and continuous optimization in cost management [3][4]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be CNY 5.584 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.51%, with a net profit of CNY 687 million, reflecting a substantial increase of 271.16% [3][6]. - The company is recognized as a regional leader in the pig farming industry, with a flexible operating model and strong cost management capabilities [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 5.584 billion, with a net profit of CNY 687 million, and an EPS of CNY 1.31 [3][6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 1.471 billion, with a net profit of CNY 22.8 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 6510.85% [3]. Business Segments - The pig farming segment generated CNY 3.797 billion in revenue in 2024, up 81.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.42% [3]. - The slaughtering and meat products segment achieved revenue of CNY 1.386 billion in 2024, a 20.89% increase, with a gross margin of 15.52% [4]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to have a net profit of CNY 762 million in 2025 and CNY 836 million in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.15x and 10.17x [5][6]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 34.13% for 2025 and 23.68% for 2026 [6].

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] [Table_Message]2025-05-26 基础化工相对指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 结果评估： 区间年化收益：4.65% 波动率（年化）：13.39% 夏普率：0.35 最大回撤：14.51% 指数期间总回报率：-18.74% 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 融 工 程 点 评 ◼ 模型策略适用情况总结：在 2023 年 3 月 7 日至 2023 年 5 月 10 日期间，模型 表现良好，净值持续上升，模型处于正收益通道；2023 年 5 月 10 日至 2024 年 1 月 15 日，模型净值呈下降趋势，无法取得较高累计收益；此后行情里， 模型净值在短期剧 ...

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] [Table_Message]2025-05-26 有色金属相对指数趋势跟踪模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com ◼ 设计原理：模型假定标的价格走势具有很好的局部延续性，标的价格永远处 于某一趋势中，出现反转行情的持续时间明显小于趋势延续的时间，若出现 窄幅盘整的情况，亦假设其延续之前的趋势。当处于大级别的趋势之中时， 给定较短时间的观察窗口，走势将延续观察窗口内的局部趋势。而当趋势发 生反转时，在观察窗口始末位置的价格变动方向会明显超出随机波动造成的 趋势背离范围，从而排除随机波动的影响。虽然指数本身在实际中进行双向 操作有诸多限制，但是为了更加严谨地评估模型效果，我们默认可以对标的 进行多空操作，以更准确评估该策略相对指数本身的回报率是否存在明显的 优势。 ◼ 作用标的：申万一级有色金属指数相对值（相对沪深 30 ...

2025 年 05 月 26 日 行业日报 看好/维持 医药 医药 CRL 一季度短期业绩承压，上调 2025 全年业绩指引 走势比较 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/5/27 24/8/7 24/10/18 24/12/29 25/3/11 25/5/22 子行业评级 行业事件 5 月 7 日，查尔斯河发布 2025 年一季报，2025 年第一季度公司实现 营业收入 9.84 亿美元，同比下降 2.70%，净利润为 0.75 亿美元，同比下 降 40.73%。 财务表现 | 化学制药 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 中药生产 | 无评级 | | 生物医药Ⅱ | 中性 | | 其 他 医 药 医 | 中性 | 相关研究报告 <<创新药 BD 推升行业景气度，关注 后续会议持续催化（附 CLDN18.2 靶 点 研 究 ） (2025.05.19- 2025.05.25)>>--2025-05-25 <<太平洋医药日报（20250523）：GSK 抗体疗法 Mepolizumab 获 FDA 批准， 用于治疗 COPD>>--2025-05-24 <<三星生物 Q1 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the computer industry, but it indicates a neutral rating for the computer software sub-industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid progress in the Robotaxi industry, driven by improved policies and regulations, decreasing costs, and accelerated commercialization efforts by major players [5][6][7][24]. - The overall performance of the computer industry index has declined by 3.02% in the week of May 19-23, 2025, ranking last among 31 primary industries [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Robotaxi Industry Developments - Policies and regulations related to Robotaxi have been rapidly established in China, including guidelines for autonomous vehicle operation and local trials in cities like Beijing and Wuhan [5][12]. - The total lifecycle operating costs of Robotaxi are decreasing, with significant reductions in manufacturing costs due to mass production of components like chips and sensors, exemplified by a 70% cost reduction in the latest Robotaxi models [6][18]. - Major Robotaxi companies are accelerating their commercialization efforts, with Waymo reporting a service volume of 250,000 rides per week and Baidu's Robotaxi achieving 100% unmanned operation [7][27]. 2. Market Performance - The computer industry index has seen a slight decline of 0.11% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.22 percentage points [33]. - The report lists the top five gainers and losers in the computer industry for the week, with significant fluctuations in stock prices [35]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Wanma Technology, Hongsoft Technology, and Ruiming Technology due to the rapid advancements in the Robotaxi sector [36].

2025 年 05 月 25 日 行业周报 看好/维持 <<化工周报（5/12-5/18）：涤纶长丝 价格大幅上涨，孟山都事件提升草甘 膦关注度>>--2025-05-20 <<湖北省国资委成为实控人，民爆一 体化区域龙头迎来发展新机遇>>-- 2025-05-20 << 化 工 新 材 料 周 报 （ 20250512- 20250518）：制冷剂价格稳中有升，显 影液、蚀刻液价格下滑>>--2025-05- 证券分析师：王亮 基础化工 基础化工 化工新材料周报（20250519-20250525）： 制冷剂价格维持高位，炭黑、溴素价格反弹 E-MAIL：wangl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522120001 走势比较 证券分析师：王海涛 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/5/27 24/8/7 24/10/18 24/12/29 25/3/11 25/5/22 基础化工 沪深300 E-MAIL：wanght@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523010001 相关研究报告 报告摘要 1.重点子行业及产品情况跟踪 制冷剂：价格维持高位。据百川 ...

2025 年 05 月 25 日 行业周报 看好/维持 医药 医药 创新药 BD 推升行业景气度，关注后续会议持续催化（附 CLDN18.2 靶点研究）(2025.05.19-2025.05.25) 走势比较 (20%) (12%) (4%) 4% 12% 20% 24/5/27 24/8/7 24/10/18 24/12/29 25/3/11 25/5/22 医药 沪深300 子行业评级 推荐公司及评级 | 君实生物 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 华领医药-B | 买入 | | 奥锐特 | 买入 | | 同和药业 | 买入 | | 阳光诺和 | 买入 | | 泓博医药 | 买入 | | 福元医药 | 买入 | | 三生制药 | 买入 | | 京新药业 | 买入 | | 共同药业 | 增持 | | 亿帆医药 | 买入 | | 诺诚健华 | 买入 | | 诺思格 | 买入 | | 奥翔药业 | 买入 | | 科伦药业 | 买入 | | 国邦医药 | 买入 | | 来凯医药-B | 买入 | | 百利天恒 | 买入 | | 益方生物 | 买入 | | 皓元医药 | 买入 | | 普洛药业 | 买入 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is neutral for the biopharmaceutical sector and other pharmaceutical sectors [3] Core Insights - Samsung Biologics reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 12,980 billion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 37.06%, and a net profit of 3,760 billion KRW, up 110.06% [4][8] - The company maintains its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting revenue growth of 20%-25%, primarily driven by the stable operation of its fourth factory [8] - The growth in Q1 2025 was attributed to the steady operation of the fourth factory, increased sales of biosimilar products, and foreign exchange gains [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Samsung Biologics reported an EBITDA of 6,500 billion KRW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 78.08% [8] - The gross profit for the same period was 7,330 billion KRW, marking a 74.52% increase year-on-year [8] - As of Q1 2025, the company had current assets of 52,630 billion KRW and non-current assets of 121,740 billion KRW, with current liabilities of 36,190 billion KRW and non-current liabilities of 25,380 billion KRW [8] Performance Guidance - The company expresses confidence in achieving its previously set performance guidance for 2025 despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment [8] - The company is closely monitoring tariff changes in the U.S. pharmaceutical industry and is prepared to respond accordingly [8]