[Table_Title] 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Message]2025-04-18 金工 ETF 点评：宽基 ETF 单日净流入 283.88 亿元；通信、电力设备拥挤度持续低位 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 ◼ 根据溢价率 Z-score 模型搭建相关 ETF 产品筛选信号模型，通过滚动测算提 供存在潜在套利机会的标的，此外需警惕标的回调风险。 风险提示：本报告结论完全基于公开历史数据，建议关注的行业指数与 ETF 产品基于 构建的量化模型，仅供大家参考阅读，不构成任何投资建议。 融 工 程 点 评 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 一、资金流向 二、行业拥挤度监测 ◼ 通过构建行业拥挤度监测模型，对申万一级行业指数的拥挤度进行每日监测 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 315 RMB, compared to the last closing price of 275 RMB [1][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a strong start in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 4.85 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%, and a net profit of 980 million RMB, up 47.6% year-on-year [4][5]. - The growth is driven by strong performance in the special beverage segment and the continued success of the "Beverage" product line, which saw significant year-on-year increases [5][7]. - The company is focusing on national expansion and has made progress in its platform-based growth strategy, with plans for international market entry, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [7][8]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 44.5%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to economies of scale and declining raw material costs [6]. - The net profit margin also improved, reaching 20.2%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6]. - The company aims for revenue and profit growth of no less than 20% for 2025, with a strong focus on expanding its product offerings and market reach [7][8]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21 billion RMB, 26.2 billion RMB, and 31.3 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 25%, and 19% respectively [8][9]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 4.6 billion RMB, 5.9 billion RMB, and 7 billion RMB, with growth rates of 37%, 29%, and 20% respectively [8][9]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance relative to the market, with a projected PE ratio of 31, 24, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 21.606 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.988 billion yuan, up 5.68% [3][4] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 4.142 billion yuan, an increase of 15.69%, and a net profit of 434 million yuan, up 34.24% [3][4] - The electric three-wheeler segment showed significant revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 36.07% [4] Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company's revenue from electric bicycles, electric two-wheel motorcycles, electric three-wheelers, and accessories was 13.037 billion yuan, 5.214 billion yuan, 1.952 billion yuan, and 847 million yuan, respectively [4] - Domestic and overseas revenues were 20.976 billion yuan and 235 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 1.92% and 3.82% [4] - The company’s revenue from distribution and direct sales was 20.641 billion yuan and 706 million yuan, respectively, both showing stable growth [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's gross margin was 19.53%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points, while the net margin improved to 10.55%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points [5] - The financial expense ratio increased due to a decline in interest income from financial management and deposits [5] - The company expects to benefit from the old-for-new policy, which is likely to drive demand for electric bicycles and expand market size [6] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 2.616 billion yuan, 3.207 billion yuan, and 3.852 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.04 yuan, 3.72 yuan, and 4.47 yuan [6][8] - The projected PE ratios for the next three years are 13.86, 11.31, and 9.41 times [6][8]

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/4/17 3月经济数据点评—— 春节错位叠加政策效应，经济延续复苏走势 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 1、一季度经济延续复苏态势 2、新质生产力支撑工业生产加快扩张 3、政策效应持续支持社零超预期回升 4、基建及制造业投资依旧为主要贡献 5、节后失业率季节性回落 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 ➢中国第一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，预期5.2%，去年全年同比增5.0%，去年第四季度同比增5.4%。 ➢中国3月规模以上工业增加值同比增长7.7%，预期5.9%，1-2月累计增速为5.9%。 ➢中国3月社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.9%，预期4.4%，1-2月累计增速为4.0%。 ➢中国一季度固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长4.2%，预期增4.0%，1-2月累计增速为4.1%。 ➢中国3月全国城镇调查失业率为5.2%，前值为5.4%。 图表1：经济数据主要分项 | 较前值变化 | 单位： | 2025/3 | 2024/12 | 2024 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the model assumes a repeated cycle of price deviation and regression relative to a reference benchmark, with the degree of deviation having limits, but without requiring a clear periodicity for each deviation-regression cycle [5][6] - The model's applicable target is the Shenwan Primary Nonferrous Metals Index relative to the CSI 300 Index, with a tracking period from January 4, 2010, to March 18, 2025 [5][6] - The total return of the interval strategy is 4.03%, while the buy-and-hold return of the target is 4.87%, resulting in an excess return of -0.85% [5] Group 2 - The model's net value showed a significant downward trend until May 2020, followed by a sharp increase and then entering a phase of volatility [6] - The maximum drawdown recorded is 60.42%, with the longest drawdown period lasting 3448 trading days [5][6] - The model's long-term performance indicates that it has been in a substantial drawdown range, suggesting limited reference value for asset allocation in the nonferrous metals index [6]

金 金融工程点评 [Table_Title] 电子指数偏离修复模型效果点评 [证券分析师：刘晓锋 Table_Author] 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 模型概述 计算区间内申万一级电子指数收盘价相对沪深 300 指数的值 cl。 计算 cl 在区间内的回撤序列 W。 计算 W 中单次回撤期间的最大值。 对于所有单次回撤最大幅度，做降序排列，得到序列 S，对 S 求和，得 到 T。 对 S 做逐步累加，当累加和达到或超过 T 的 80%时，停止累加，将 S 中 并未参与累加的值去除，则 S 保留下来的数值序列为 S1. 结果评估： 区间策略总收益：249.59% 标的买入并持有收益：186.78% 总超额：62.81% 最大回撤：26.52% 最长回撤时间：411 交易日 [Table_Message]2025-04-16 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 ...

- The report introduces an **Industry Crowding Monitoring Model** to track the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis. The model identifies industries with high crowding levels (e.g., Beauty Care, Retail, Agriculture) and low crowding levels (e.g., Communication, Real Estate, Construction). It also highlights significant daily changes in crowding levels for industries like Electronics, Media, and Light Manufacturing[4]. - A **Z-score Premium Model** is constructed to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. The model uses rolling calculations to identify ETFs with significant deviations from their intrinsic value, while also warning of potential pullback risks[5]. - The **Industry Crowding Monitoring Model** evaluates crowding levels based on the flow of main funds. For example, in the previous trading day, main funds flowed into Media, Beauty Care, and Banks, while flowing out of Electronics, Computers, and Retail. Over the past three trading days, main funds increased allocations to Automobiles, Banks, and Utilities, while reducing allocations to Computers, Retail, and Agriculture[4]. - The **Z-score Premium Model** identifies ETFs with significant premium or discount levels. For instance, ETFs like the CSI 300 ETF (Huaxia) and the CSI 300 ETF showed net inflows of 27.27 billion yuan and 15.15 billion yuan, respectively, while ETFs like the CSI A500 ETF and the ChiNext ETF experienced net outflows of 3.52 billion yuan and 3.17 billion yuan, respectively[6][7]. - The **Industry Crowding Monitoring Model** provides actionable insights by ranking industries based on crowding levels and fund flows. For example, industries like Media and Beauty Care are highlighted for their high crowding levels, while Communication and Real Estate are noted for their low levels. This information can guide investors in identifying potential opportunities or risks[4][10]. - The **Z-score Premium Model** is evaluated based on its ability to identify ETFs with significant deviations from their intrinsic value. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through its identification of ETFs with notable premium or discount levels, providing potential arbitrage opportunities for investors[5][6]. - The **Industry Crowding Monitoring Model** and the **Z-score Premium Model** are both tested using historical data. For example, the Industry Crowding Monitoring Model tracks fund flows over the past three trading days, while the Z-score Premium Model identifies ETFs with significant premium or discount levels based on rolling calculations[4][5][6].

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/4/15 3月贸易数据点评—— 出口为何大超预期？ 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、基数因素叠加抢出口效应，出口同比明显超出市场预计 2、量价及政策因素限制进口回升空间 图表1：贸易数据主要分项 ➢ 中国3月出口（以美元计价，下同）同比增长12.4%，市场预期增长3.5%，1-2月增长2.3%。 ➢ 中国3月进口同比下降4.3%，市场预期下降4.3%，1-2月下降8.4%。 ➢ 中国3月贸易顺差1026.4亿美元，市场预期783.0亿美元，1-2月为1705.2亿美元。 1、基数因素叠加抢出口效应，出口同比明显超出市场预计 ➢出口增势大超预期。3月出口（以美元计价）同比增长2.3%，较今年1-2月增速大幅上行10.1个百分点，也显著超出 市场一致预期。如何理解本月出口同比的明显反弹？我们认为有去年同期基数走低、抢出口两方面因素的影响，两 者分别对应着春节错位以及规避对等关税加征风险的逻辑。一则去年春 ...

2025 年 04 月 15 日 公司点评 买入/维持 长安汽车(000625) 目标价: 昨收盘:12.58 汽车央企航母打造世界级汽车集团 证券分析师：刘虹辰 电话：010-88321818 E-MAIL：liuhc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010002 (40%) (28%) (16%) (4%) 8% 20% 24/4/15 24/6/26 24/9/6 24/11/17 25/1/28 25/4/10 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 99.14/82.61 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 1,247.19/1,03 | | | 9.2 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 18.09/11.32 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<长安汽车：华为车 BU，自主新引 望>>--2024-09-04 事件：公司发布 2024 年报，营业总收入 1597.33 亿元，同比+5.58%； 归母净利润 73.21 亿元，同比-35.37%；扣非净利润 25.87 亿元，同比- 31.59%。2025 年第一季度，公司归属于上市公司股东 ...

[Table_Title] 金 金融工程点评 [Table_Message]2025-04-15 基础化工指数偏离修复模型效果点评 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 研究助理：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编码：S1190123080008 模型概述 计算区间内申万一级基础化工指数收盘价相对沪深 300 指数的值 cl。 计算 cl 在区间内的回撤序列 W。 结果评估： 区间策略总收益：58.12% 标的买入并持有收益：-0.92% 总超额：59.04% 最大回撤：21.35% 最长回撤时间：504 交易日 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 [Table_Summary] 报 告 ◼ 设计原理：模型假定标的价格走势相对参考标的存在反复的偏离-回归循环， 且偏离程度是存在极限的，但并不要求单次偏离-回归的时间周期存在明显的 规律性，即单纯的空间型策略。此外，已有样本区间已 ...