[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 18 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】周二 A 股三大指数下跌，截至收盘，上证综指跌 0.73%， 深成指跌 0.35%，创业板指跌 0.02%，全市场成交额 15252 亿元，较 上日减少 1917 亿元。全市场近 4800 只个股下跌。板块题材上，足球 概念、汽车整车、白酒板块涨幅排名靠前；教育、影视院线、大消费 方向跌幅较大。 【重要新闻】 【国务院国资委：着力提高上市公司发展质量】12 月 17 日，为进一 步推动中央企业高度重视控股上市公司市场价值表现，规范有序开展 市值管理工作，提升上市公司投资价值，切实维护投资者权益，以更 有力的行动举措促进资本市场健康稳定发展，国务院国资委近日印发 了《关于改进和加强中央企业控股上市公司市值管理工作的若干意 见》（以下简称《意见》）。《意见》指出，要着力提高上市公司发展质 量。中央企业要指导控股上市公司积极贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于 深化国资国企改革的重大部署，围绕国有经济布局优化和结构调整主 动作为，增强核心功能 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company Dacilin (大参林) [7][15]. Core Views - The company is a leading chain pharmacy in South China and ranks among the top in the country, with retail from directly operated stores being the main source of revenue and profit. The company has expanded its presence to 21 provinces through a combination of self-built stores, acquisitions, and franchises. Future growth is expected to come from enhancing the profitability and operational efficiency of stores outside its traditional regions [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Dacilin has been established for 25 years and is the largest chain pharmacy in South China, focusing on both traditional Chinese and Western medicine, health products, and medical devices. The company has expanded its operations to cover 21 provinces, with significant market shares in Guangdong, Guangxi, Henan, and Heilongjiang. As of Q3 2024, the company operates 16,453 stores nationwide, leading the industry [12][53]. Market Opportunities - The trend of prescription drug outflow presents new opportunities for large chain pharmacies. The outpatient management of designated retail pharmacies is accelerating this trend, with significant growth potential in the outpatient market compared to Japan and the US. The aging population and the increasing reliance on insurance for chronic disease management further support this growth [5][14]. Expansion Strategy - The company employs a "self-built + acquisition + franchise" strategy to expand its market presence. The number of directly operated and franchise stores is increasing, with a focus on both strong and weak regions. The company has seen a shift towards franchise operations, particularly in regions outside its traditional stronghold [6][19][108]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 27.26 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 11.12%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 12.63% compared to the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.89 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.12 [5][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Dacilin, as a leader in the pharmaceutical retail industry, is well-positioned to enhance its performance in provinces outside its traditional markets while maintaining its stronghold in South China. The company is expected to improve its overall profitability and management efficiency [15][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry [5]. Core Insights - Solid-state batteries are a new battery technology that replaces traditional liquid electrolytes with solid electrolytes, offering significant advantages in safety and energy density. The industry is entering a rapid development phase, with a broad market potential ahead [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Solid-State Battery Advantages - High safety: Solid-state batteries operate over a wider temperature range (-50°C to 120°C) and are less prone to thermal runaway compared to liquid lithium batteries [49][50]. - High energy density: Solid-state batteries can achieve energy densities exceeding 500Wh/kg, surpassing the limits of traditional liquid batteries [51][56]. 2. Material System Iteration - Transition from semi-solid to all-solid state: The development of solid-state batteries is progressing through stages, with semi-solid batteries serving as a transitional phase [73]. - Electrolyte advancements: Oxide electrolytes are progressing rapidly, while sulfide electrolytes have higher potential but face commercialization challenges [76][79]. - Anode materials: Silicon-based anodes are a short to medium-term solution, while metallic lithium is the long-term goal [25][26]. - Cathode materials: High voltage and high capacity cathode materials are the focus for future development [26]. 3. Policy Support and Market Potential - Continuous policy support: Countries like Japan, the US, South Korea, and the EU have been promoting solid-state battery technology as a strategic goal since 2020, with China also issuing supportive policies [5][28]. - Market growth forecast: The solid-state battery market is expected to enter mass production around 2026, with projected shipments reaching 614.1GWh by 2030, representing a market size exceeding 250 billion yuan [10][11]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong positions in both oxide and sulfide electrolyte routes, as well as those leading in high-capacity anode and cathode materials [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strong commitment to stabilizing the stock market, with incremental policies expected to accelerate implementation. Recent meetings have highlighted the importance of maintaining market stability, which is seen as a priority by regulatory authorities [2][4]. - The report notes a significant recovery in the domestic equity market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 15% from September 26 to December 16, and trading volumes increasing by approximately 130% year-on-year in October and November [2][4]. - A shift in monetary policy towards "moderately loose" is anticipated, which could lead to further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, enhancing market liquidity and supporting brokerage and asset management businesses [2][4]. - The report discusses ongoing reforms in the capital market financing sector, suggesting that the investment banking business may experience a turning point due to the encouragement of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Stability and Policy Implementation - The report highlights the commitment to stabilizing the stock market as a key focus, with specific measures to enhance market expectations and governance [2][4]. - Incremental policies are expected to be implemented more rapidly, contributing to improved market confidence and activity [2][4]. Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The shift to a moderately loose monetary policy is expected to provide ample liquidity, which will benefit the capital market and related financial services [2][4]. - The report anticipates that this will lead to an increase in long-term capital inflows, further supporting market stability [2][4]. Investment Banking and Financing Reforms - The report indicates that ongoing reforms in the capital market will likely benefit investment banking activities, particularly in underwriting and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions [4][5]. - The encouragement of mergers and acquisitions is expected to stimulate the investment banking sector, with a notable increase in significant restructuring events reported [4][5].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a decline on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.30%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.51%. The total market turnover was 171.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.3 billion yuan from the previous day, with nearly 3,500 stocks declining. Sectors such as education, retail, ice and snow industries, and film and television saw gains, while gaming and semiconductor sectors faced significant losses [1][6]. Important News - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that more proactive macro policies will be implemented to expand domestic demand, with a focus on accelerating the integration of technological and industrial innovation to promote sustained economic recovery [2][6]. - The Central Financial Office announced a significant increase in the issuance of ultra-long special bonds to support "two new" initiatives next year, aiming to enhance policy support and optimize implementation mechanisms to improve fund utilization efficiency [2][6]. Industry Insights Non-Banking Sector - The commitment to stabilize the stock market is evident, with incremental policies and funding expected to accelerate. The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability as a priority, with specific measures to enhance market expectations and improve corporate governance [7]. Power Equipment Sector - Solid-state batteries are entering a rapid development phase, with significant market potential. They offer higher safety and energy density compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries, driven by national policy support and accelerated corporate investments [11][12]. Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The pet industry is segmented into various categories, with pet food and medical care accounting for the largest share. The pet food market is dominated by staple food, with domestic brands gaining traction. The pet medical sector is also growing rapidly, driven by increased health awareness among pet owners [14][16]. Pharmaceutical Retail Sector - The company is a leading chain pharmacy in South China, expanding through self-built, acquired, and franchised stores. The trend of prescription drug outflow presents new opportunities for large chains, which are expected to benefit from regulatory changes and increased market share [20][21]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and profitability in provincial markets, with a significant number of stores across 21 provinces. The integration of online and offline channels is expected to drive growth in the new retail model [24][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pet industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The pet industry is characterized by a diverse range of segments, with pet food and medical services accounting for the largest share of consumer spending. Pet food dominates the market, while pet medical services are experiencing steady growth [1][26]. - The pet food market in China has shown significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.39% from 2012 to 2023, reaching a market size of 50.98 billion yuan in 2023 [30][38]. - The report highlights the increasing preference for domestic brands in the pet food sector, with local companies gradually gaining market share against established foreign brands [2][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Pet Industry Value Chain - The pet industry encompasses various segments including pet breeding, trading, food, supplies, medical care, grooming, training, insurance, and burial services. The food and medical segments are the most significant, together accounting for approximately 80% of the market [1][26]. 2. Pet Food - Pet food is categorized into staple food, snacks, and health products, with staple food holding the largest market share. In 2022, the consumption structure for dog food was 68.9% staple food, 27.1% snacks, and 4.0% health products, while for cat food it was 70.3%, 25.4%, and 4.3% respectively [2][60]. - The domestic pet food market is still fragmented, with a low concentration of brands. The top five brands account for only 20% of the market share, indicating significant room for growth [39][40]. 3. Pet Supplies - The pet supplies market reached 40 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 13.6% over the past five years, significantly outpacing global growth rates. The trend towards smart products is expected to drive future growth [3][8]. 4. Pet Medical Services - The pet medical market is growing faster than the pet food sector, driven by increased health awareness among pet owners. The report notes that the chain rate of pet hospitals is expected to rise as the market matures [8][9]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic brands that are excelling in building their own brands, as the trend of domestic brand emergence is expected to continue in the pet industry [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the market in the next six months [6][203]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing trend of prescription outflow and the acceleration of outpatient management, which is expected to enhance the retail pharmaceutical market [4][12]. - The company employs a multi-faceted expansion strategy through new openings, acquisitions, and franchising, focusing on regions such as Central South, East China, and North China to enhance its market presence [5][11]. - The company aims to leverage its scale and refined management to achieve revenue and profit growth while improving operational efficiency [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Yifeng Pharmacy, has expanded from Hunan to ten provinces and cities across China, operating a total of 15,050 stores as of September 30, 2024, including 3,625 franchise stores [5][87]. - The company has established a strong logistics network to support its rapid expansion, ensuring efficient supply chain management [87]. Market Opportunities - The trend of prescription outflow is expected to create new opportunities for large chain pharmacies, as outpatient management policies are implemented [4][11]. - The aging population and the increasing reliance on insurance for chronic disease management will further drive demand for pharmacy services [4][11]. Financial Performance - The company has shown robust growth, with total revenue increasing from 2.23 billion yuan in 2014 to 22.59 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.34% [11][110]. - The forecast for 2024 projects a revenue of 24.99 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.57 billion yuan, indicating continued growth [5][12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively enhancing its new retail business through digital transformation and the integration of online and offline sales channels [12][153]. - The issuance of convertible bonds is aimed at funding projects that will improve operational efficiency and expand the store network [12][161]. Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining a stable gross margin despite potential pricing pressures, supported by its scale and cost control measures [12][191]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 1.29 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.26 based on the closing price of 24.89 yuan on December 13, 2024 [12][191].

Core Views - The report emphasizes the continuation of policy support to stabilize the real estate market, which is crucial for expanding domestic demand and improving market expectations [11][19][24] - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to boost consumption and enhance investment efficiency, marking a shift in focus towards expanding domestic demand as a primary task for 2025 [19][22][24] - The report indicates that the industrial sewing machine industry is entering an upward cycle, with signs of recovery expected in 2024 due to improving domestic and foreign demand [15][18] Market Review - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 2.01% at 3,391.88 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.23% [5][6] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.09 trillion yuan, with only the media sector showing gains while real estate, non-bank financials, and metals led the declines [5][6] - In the international market, the Dow Jones fell by 0.20%, while the S&P 500 remained flat, indicating mixed performance across global indices [2] Important News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, enhancing market monitoring and regulatory measures to maintain stability [6][11] - The National Energy Administration called for the acceleration of planning and construction of a new energy system, highlighting the need for high-quality development and risk management in the energy sector [6][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality state-owned enterprises in the real estate sector that may benefit from supply-side reforms and policies aimed at stabilizing the market [11] - It is recommended to pay attention to companies involved in the recovery of the industrial sewing machine market, as demand is expected to rise significantly in 2024 [15][18] - The report advises monitoring sectors that will benefit from increased consumer spending, particularly in services and essential goods like food and beverages [19][22]

Industry Overview - The industrial sewing machine industry in China has entered a high-quality development phase, with a typical cycle of 3-4 years [1] - The industry faced challenges in 2022-2023 due to weak domestic and international demand, but signs of recovery emerged in 2024, driven by improved domestic textile and apparel markets and gradual recovery in overseas demand [1] - The industry is currently in an upward cycle, with demand for sewing machinery expected to significantly increase in the second half of 2024 [1] Industry Development - China's industrial sewing machine industry has a long history, dating back to the late 19th century, and has evolved towards high-end and intelligent development since the 21st century [2] - The industry's upstream includes raw materials and components like cast iron, copper, servo motors, and electronic controls, while the midstream involves the manufacturing and assembly of sewing machines [2] - Downstream applications extend beyond the apparel industry to include footwear, bags, leather goods, toys, and home textiles [2] Market Size and Growth - The industrial sewing machine market in China reached 19 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 19.16% from 2015 to 2022 [3] - The industry typically experiences a cycle every 3-4 years, with peak production growth rates observed in 2013, 2017, and 2021 [3] - After a downturn in 2022-2023, the industry showed signs of recovery in 2024, with domestic sales of industrial sewing machines expected to rebound [3] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand for industrial sewing machines stabilized and rebounded in 2024, driven by improved performance in the textile and apparel industry [4] - From January to October 2024, revenue and profit of large-scale textile and apparel enterprises increased by 2.1% and 4.4% year-on-year, respectively [4] - Fixed asset investment in the textile and apparel industry grew by 17.5% year-on-year during the same period, indicating a recovery trend [4] International Demand - International demand for sewing machinery began to recover in 2024, with export values showing positive year-on-year growth [10] - From May 2024, China's sewing machine exports experienced significant growth, with a 50.25% year-on-year increase in October [10] - Key export markets such as India, Vietnam, and the US showed signs of recovery, with India and Vietnam experiencing strong demand growth [10] Competitive Landscape - The global industrial sewing machine market is highly competitive, with major players including Japan's Juki, China's Jack Sewing Machine, and ShangGong Group [10] - The top three companies in the global market are Juki (20% market share), Jack Sewing Machine (18%), and ShangGong Group (10%) [10] Key Companies - **Jack Sewing Machine**: A leading Chinese industrial sewing machine manufacturer with a diverse product portfolio, including sewing machines, cutting machines, and automated sewing equipment [97] - **ShangGong Group**: Engaged in industrial and household sewing machine businesses, with a strong presence in high-end markets [92] - **Zhongjie Resources**: Focuses on mid-to-high-end industrial sewing machines [92] Investment Recommendation - The industrial sewing machine industry is in an upward cycle, with recovery signs in 2024, making it a favorable time to invest in companies benefiting from the industry's rebound [103]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the broader market in the next six months [2][8]. Core Insights - The stability of the real estate industry is crucial for expanding domestic demand, with strong policy support anticipated to stabilize the housing market. The report suggests that the current market shows initial signs of stabilization, and it is recommended to monitor housing prices and transaction trends closely [2][4]. - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize the housing market and stock market, reflecting a strong policy demand to prevent declines in the real estate sector. The report anticipates continued supportive policies for the real estate industry through 2025 [2][4]. - The report highlights the importance of macroeconomic policies in improving expectations and stimulating housing demand. It notes that a combination of fiscal and monetary policies will be implemented to support the industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections - **Policy Support**: The report indicates that the government plans to implement significant policies to support the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, which is expected to release pent-up housing demand. The scale of urban village renovations is projected to expand, with a target of 1 million new units [4]. - **Supply Control**: The report discusses the need for strict control over new real estate land supply and the activation of existing land resources. It mentions that policies aimed at controlling new residential land supply and promoting the disposal of existing properties will help improve cash flow for real estate companies [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The report suggests that the real estate industry is on a path to recovery, driven by policy support and improved macroeconomic conditions. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the market for potential trading opportunities in companies that are expected to benefit from these developments [2][4].