Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2024, focused on analyzing the current economic situation and planning for 2025, emphasizing a stable growth strategy[3] - The meeting highlighted the need for targeted responses to internal and external economic challenges, maintaining a focus on stable growth, employment, prices, and international balance of payments[3] - A signal was given to increase the fiscal deficit ratio, with plans to issue long-term special government bonds and expand the scale of special bonds, indicating a clearer direction for a more proactive fiscal policy[3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Stability - The monetary policy is expected to include interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to maintain ample liquidity, with the 7-day OMO rate anticipated to gradually decrease[4] - The central bank will likely enhance its role in stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, while ensuring the exchange rate remains stable and balanced[4] - The focus on expanding macro-prudential measures and financial stability is expected to mitigate risks in the currency market[4] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand has been prioritized, with policies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, and enhancing social security measures[5] - Investment policies will focus on improving efficiency, with an emphasis on new and traditional industries to drive economic recovery[5] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with continued support for sales and measures to restore consumer confidence in housing prices[5] Group 4: Asset Allocation and Risks - The economic outlook suggests manageable market risks, with a focus on domestic consumption and technology sectors such as semiconductors and consumer electronics[8] - The bond market has experienced a rapid decline, with 10-year government bonds at low levels, indicating potential volatility ahead[8] - Key risk factors include unexpected declines in overseas demand and slower-than-expected implementation of policies[8]

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|电子 证 券 研 究 报 告 行业快评报告 行业研究 [Table_Title] 中央经济会议：避内卷促消费扬科技，加强 培育耐心资本 [Table_IndustryRank] 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——电子行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 13 日 [Table_Chart] 行业相对沪深 300 指数表现 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 电子 沪深300 数据来源：聚源，万联证券研究所 [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 AI 手机扬帆起，智能未来正启航 中央企业创业投资基金设立，培育壮大国有 耐心资本 美方对华新一轮制裁落地，先进制程自主可 控有望加速 [Table_Authors] 分析师: 夏清莹 执业证书编号： S0270520050001 电话： 075583223620 邮箱： xiaqy1@wlzq.com.cn 分析师: 陈达 执业证书编号： S0270524080001 电话： 13122771895 邮箱 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2025, driven by favorable policies and increased participation from long-term capital [5][6][65] - The performance of large-cap blue-chip stocks is anticipated to improve, with a focus on sectors benefiting from technological innovation and financial sector recovery [5][6][35] - The liquidity environment in the A-share market is projected to improve further, supported by new monetary policies and capital inflows [5][6][65] Group 2 - The report highlights the rise of passive investment strategies, with broad-based index ETFs likely to benefit leading companies [6][35] - The acceleration of new productive forces is emphasized, with a focus on merger and acquisition targets in technology and finance sectors [6][35] - Structural opportunities are expected to increase, with a rotation between balanced and growth investment styles [5][6][35] Group 3 - The financial sector has shown significant recovery, with non-bank financials and banks leading the performance among industries [35][36] - The technology sector remains a hot investment area, particularly in TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), with substantial growth in communications and electronics [35][36] - The report notes that industries such as household appliances and new materials have also performed well, driven by supportive policies [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the digital marketing industry [3]. Core Insights - Digital marketing is evolving through AI-driven innovations, enhancing marketing effectiveness and efficiency, and becoming a core driver of advertising market growth [2][8]. - The digital marketing ecosystem consists of seven key components, including user journey, media ecology, content ecology, data ecology, advertising ecology, marketing ecology, and enterprise digital management and technology ecology [3][41]. - The market size for digital marketing in China is projected to reach 1.05 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by rapid growth in internet usage and digital marketing adoption [2][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Digital Marketing Overview - Digital marketing utilizes digital technologies and channels to achieve marketing goals, allowing businesses to connect with potential customers more effectively [1][15]. 1.1 Forms - Digital marketing encompasses various forms such as information flow advertising, SEO, content marketing, and email marketing, enabling precise targeting of potential customers [1][17]. 1.2 Advantages - Compared to traditional marketing, digital marketing offers significant upgrades in information acquisition, transmission, and decision-making support, leading to improved marketing effectiveness and efficiency [2][23]. 1.3 Characteristics and Functions - Digital marketing is characterized by real-time responsiveness, digitalization, precise targeting, interactivity, and innovation, which enhance sales efficiency and customer service [2][27]. 1.4 Development History - The evolution of digital marketing in China has progressed through four stages, driven by technological innovations from broadband to 5G [2][30]. 1.5 Market Size - The advertising market in China has seen rapid growth, with digital marketing becoming a key growth driver, projected to reach 1.05 trillion yuan in 2024 [2][35]. 1.6 Process - The digital marketing process involves four main participants: advertisers, agencies, third-party service providers, and platforms, all interconnected to maximize marketing effectiveness [2][40]. 1.7 Ecosystem - The digital marketing ecosystem is built on seven components that work together to create a diverse marketing environment, facilitating stable market development [2][41]. 2. AI Empowerment - AI is breaking productivity bottlenecks in digital marketing, leading to a reconfiguration of marketing production relationships and enhancing efficiency [3][46]. 2.1 AI Empowerment - Generative AI is transforming digital marketing by improving productivity and enabling personalized marketing strategies based on data insights [3][47]. 2.2 Advantages - Generative marketing focuses on proactive engagement, predicting consumer needs based on data insights rather than reactive responses [3][55]. 2.3 Development Stages - The evolution of AI in marketing is moving towards an intelligent agent model, with the potential for automated marketing teams [3][59]. 2.4 Applications - Generative marketing is being applied across various sectors, including advertising, content creation, social media, e-commerce, user growth, and innovative management [3][67].

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 12 月 13 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四，A 股震荡走高，上证综指涨 0.85%，报 3461.50 点，深证成指 涨 1.00%，创业板指涨 1.35%。A 股两市全天成交额约 18,666.17 亿 元人民币。南向资金净卖出 29.29 亿港元。申万行业方面，商贸零 售、食品饮料行业领涨，钢铁、煤炭行业跌幅靠前；概念板块方面， 乳业、冰雪产业涨幅居前，PEEK 材料、人形机器人板块跌幅靠前。港 股方面，香港恒生指数涨 1.20%，恒生科技指数涨 1.53%。海外方面， 美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌 0.53%，标普 500 指数跌 0.54%，纳 指跌 0.66%。欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，亚太主要股指收盘涨跌不 一。 【重要新闻】 【人力资源社会保障部等五部门印发《关于全面实施个人养老金制度 的通知》】人力资源社会保障部、财政部、国家税务总局、金融监管 总局、中国证监会印发《关于全面实施个人养老金制度的通知》。《通 知》明确，自 2024 年 12 月 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [11] Core Insights - In November, China's automotive production and sales both saw year-on-year and month-on-month growth, with production reaching 3.437 million units and sales at 3.316 million units, marking increases of 11.1% and 11.7% year-on-year, and 14.7% and 8.6% month-on-month respectively [2] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector experienced significant growth, achieving record monthly production and sales of 1.566 million and 1.512 million units, representing year-on-year increases of 45.8% and 47.4% [2] - The market share of NEVs in total new vehicle sales reached 45.6% in November, with a cumulative total of 11.345 million NEVs produced and 11.262 million sold from January to November, reflecting year-on-year growth of 34.6% and 35.6% [2] Summary by Sections Automotive Production and Sales - In November, passenger vehicle production and sales surpassed 3 million units for the first time, with production at 3.109 million and sales at 3.001 million, both showing year-on-year increases of 14.9% [3] - The market share of domestic brands in passenger vehicle sales rose to 68.3%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] - Commercial vehicle production and sales were weaker, with production at 327,000 units and sales at 315,000 units, showing year-on-year declines of 15.7% and 13.9% respectively [3] Export Performance - In November, total automotive exports reached 490,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 9.5% but a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [4] - NEV exports were particularly affected, with 83,000 units exported, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 35.2% and a year-on-year decline of 14.1% [4] - Cumulatively, from January to November, total automotive exports reached 5.345 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the automotive industry is poised for a new growth opportunity due to supportive policies aimed at upgrading old vehicles and increasing subsidies for new energy buses and battery replacements [9] - The combination of domestic and international demand is expected to drive steady growth in the automotive sector, with a focus on companies that have strong brands, market advantages, and proactive overseas market strategies [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The smartphone market is entering a mature phase, and AI smartphones are expected to bring new growth momentum with features supporting AI large model deployment, multimodal capabilities, enhanced interaction, and powerful hardware platforms [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Smartphone Development - The evolution of smartphone intelligence has progressed through four stages, culminating in the current phase where AI smartphones are expected to drive a new wave of innovation [18]. - AI smartphones are characterized by their ability to support large model deployment on-device, multimodal capabilities, enhanced interaction, and robust computational hardware [27][31]. - The demand for AI smartphones is projected to grow significantly, with shipments expected to reach 150 million units in 2024, accounting for 13% of global smartphone shipments, and over 590 million units by 2027, surpassing 50% of total shipments [4][38]. 2. Major Manufacturers' Engagement - The top six smartphone manufacturers in China hold over 90% market share, with Huawei rapidly increasing its share [42]. - Major global players like Apple, Google, and Samsung, along with leading Chinese brands such as Honor, OPPO, Xiaomi, and vivo, are actively integrating generative AI features into their devices [44]. - Companies are exploring self-developed large models for on-device applications, with significant advancements in model parameters, such as Xiaomi's 64 billion parameter model and vivo's 175 billion parameter model [47]. 3. AI Deployment Driving Chip and Memory Upgrades - The demand for generative AI applications is pushing the need for advanced mobile computing architectures, with flagship smartphones expected to achieve AI computing power exceeding 60 TOPS by 2025 [5]. - The integration of AI capabilities is increasing the requirements for memory chips, with LPDDR5 expected to contribute significantly to mobile DRAM shipments in 2024 and 2025 [5][39]. - The deployment of AI models on devices enhances the capabilities of smartphone assistants and improves user experience across various applications, including photography, education, and content creation [56]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading manufacturers as they release new products, which will drive demand across the supply chain [5]. - The integration of AI into traditional applications is expected to create significant investment opportunities as the market for AI smartphones expands [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong commitment from the policy side to stabilize the real estate market, with significant measures introduced since September 2023 aimed at reversing the downward trend in the industry. The focus is on both supply-side and demand-side policies to improve buyer expectations and market confidence [2][4]. - The expectation for 2025 includes a continuation of supportive policies, with an emphasis on more proactive fiscal and monetary policies to enhance residents' income expectations and overall economic conditions [2][4]. Policy Support - A series of supportive policies have been introduced to stabilize the real estate market, including measures for inventory reduction and financial support for real estate companies. The policies are designed to address both short-term and long-term needs, with a focus on high-energy cities responding positively [17][24]. - The "stockpiling" policy is expected to help accelerate inventory reduction and stabilize market expectations, with local government investment companies likely to benefit first. As of October 2024, the real estate industry's residential inventory stood at 375 million square meters, with a de-stocking cycle of approximately 21 months [24][28]. Demand Outlook - The total transaction volume for "new and second-hand homes" is expected to remain relatively stable, with positive changes in core factors affecting housing demand. The report notes a significant narrowing of the sales decline in October 2023, indicating a recovery in market confidence [4][5]. - The report forecasts a slight decline in sales volume for 2025, estimating a decrease of around 3%, while the investment decline is expected to narrow due to ongoing policy support [5][4]. Industry Key Indicators - Sales and investment metrics for the real estate sector are projected to show a slight decline in 2025, with sales area and amount for the first ten months of 2024 down by 15.8% and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively. The report anticipates that the decline in new construction and completion will continue, but at a reduced rate compared to previous years [5][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving financing conditions for real estate companies, with ongoing policy support expected to enhance their ability to secure funding [5][4].

Core Views - The A-share market showed a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to 3,432.49 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.33% [2][5] - The trading volume in the A-share market reached approximately 17,760.97 billion RMB, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 7.285 billion HKD [2][5] - The retail and textile industries led the gains in the Shenwan industry sector, while banking and non-bank financial sectors experienced declines [2][5] Market Review - The report highlights that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for November increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and marking the highest month-on-month increase since April [2][5] - Following the CPI release, traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to 99.9% from 86.1% prior to the data release [2][5] Real Estate Industry Insights - The report indicates a strong policy commitment to stabilize the real estate market, with the Politburo meeting in September emphasizing the need for the industry to "stop falling and stabilize" [6][9] - It is expected that the real estate market will see a gradual recovery, supported by a series of policies aimed at improving buyer sentiment and market conditions [6][9] - The report forecasts that the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes will remain relatively stable, with a slight decline in new home sales expected in 2025 [9] AI Mobile Phone Market Analysis - The AI mobile phone market is anticipated to grow significantly, with projected shipments reaching 150 million units in 2024, accounting for 13% of global smartphone shipments [10][12] - Major smartphone manufacturers are actively integrating AI capabilities into their devices, enhancing user experience through improved functionalities such as photography and text generation [10][12] - The demand for AI capabilities is driving advancements in mobile processing and storage technologies, with expectations for significant growth in AI processing power in flagship smartphones by 2025 [10][12]

Core Views - The report indicates a positive market sentiment following the Central Political Bureau meeting on December 9, which aims to stabilize investor confidence and promote economic growth [7][11] - The meeting emphasized the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting an increase in macroeconomic policy strength and liquidity [7][11] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment efficiency is expected to enhance corporate profitability and stimulate economic growth [7][11] Market Review - On December 10, the A-share market opened high but retreated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.59% to 3422.66 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.75% [6][3] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 21,998.87 billion RMB, with net sales of southbound funds amounting to 10.32 billion HKD [6][3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 0.50%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 1.39% [6][3] Important News - The Shanghai Municipal Government released the "Shanghai Support for Listed Companies' Mergers and Acquisitions Action Plan (2025-2027)" on December 9, aiming to cultivate around 10 internationally competitive listed companies in key industries by 2027, with a target merger transaction scale of 300 billion RMB [2][6] - The plan seeks to activate total assets exceeding 2 trillion RMB and enhance the capabilities of intermediary institutions in merger services [2][6] Investment Insights - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the new productive forces sector, particularly in technology growth areas [10] - It highlights the potential for increased mergers and acquisitions among central and state-owned enterprises as industry integration accelerates [10] - The report anticipates that the consumer sector will see multiple highlights due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption [10]