证券研究报告 水泥拐点或至：行业供需端新变化及当前情况梳理 西部证券研发中心 2025年3月13日 分析师 | 张欣劼 S0850518020001 核心观点 水泥行业拐点或至 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 2 • 需求端：房屋新开工拐点将近，需求或比预期好。100城三线城市住宅拿地面积已连续两月回正，2025年1、2月累计同比 +38.87%、+16.00% ，300城三线城市拿地面积也有所好转，1、2月累计同比+0.53%、-11.80%（24年11、12月累计同比 分别为-17.64%，-20.68%） 。若三线城市拿地回暖信号进一步传导至300城全样本拿地面积，有望拉动整体地产新开工面 积提升，促进水泥需求端改善。 • 供给端：1）2025年3月6号，国家发展改革委主任表示将分行业出台化解重点产业结构性矛盾具体方案，推动落后低效产能 退出，扩大中高端产能供给，让供给侧更好地适应市场需求的变化。2）限制超产政策执行落地可期。24年10月工信部推出 的《水泥玻璃行业产能置换实施办法》提出生产线实际日产量不得超过备案产能的110%、超产产能在2025年底前需补齐产 能指标，因此，我们预计202 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [4][15]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.53 billion, 7.81 billion, and 10.59 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of +6.6%, +72.3%, and +35.5%, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30.5, 17.7, and 13.0X [4][15]. - The company is a leader in the offshore wind tower market and is benefiting from the acceleration of offshore wind construction, particularly in overseas markets [4][15]. - The company is executing a dual-sea strategy, successfully exporting offshore wind towers and monopiles, with production capacity expansion to support this growth [4][15]. Summary by Sections Domestic Offshore Wind Demand - Domestic offshore wind installation demand is expected to be released, with continuous shipments from the company. The domestic offshore wind projects that were previously delayed are now resuming, with significant projects in Guangdong and Jiangsu expected to start construction [4][15]. - The domestic offshore wind competition capacity for 2023 is 25.8GW, and for 2024 it is 25.35GW, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [4][15]. International Offshore Wind Demand - International offshore wind demand is beginning to ramp up, with the company positioned as a leading exporter of offshore wind towers and monopiles. The global offshore wind installation is projected to see significant growth starting in 2026, particularly in Europe, where new installations are expected to reach 8.40GW in 2026 [2][4]. - The company has already exported nearly 100,000 tons of offshore wind towers and monopiles in 2023, with a full order book for future deliveries [2][4]. Export Capacity and Advantages - The company has established three major offshore engineering bases in Penglai, Tangshan, and Panjin, with a combined export capacity of 1.5 million tons once fully operational. Additionally, the company is developing its own fleet of large deck transport vessels to enhance its export capabilities [2][4]. - The company’s international orders are robust, and it has received recognition from overseas clients, further solidifying its position as a leader in offshore wind exports [2][4]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s revenue from wind tower manufacturing is expected to grow significantly, with projected year-on-year growth rates of -5%, +48%, and +28% for 2024-2026 [9][10]. - The company’s revenue structure has been upgraded, with a CAGR of 26.53% from 2019 to 2023, and it is anticipated that the profitability will improve as the company continues to push for offshore wind exports [24][30].

行业日报 | 北交所 定向可转债审批加速，助力北交所再融资常态化 证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 北交所市场点评——20250312 核心结论 行情回顾：1）指数层面：3 月 12 日北证 50 收跌-0.6%，成交额达 420.3 亿 元，较昨日上涨 38.5 亿元。2）个股层面：当日北交所 264 家公司中 127 家 上涨，1 家平盘，136 家下跌，3 家涨停。其中涨幅前五的个股分别为：立方 控股（+30.0%）、华原股份（+30.0%）、美心翼申（+29.9%）、凯添燃气（+27.8%）、 机科股份（+23.6%），跌幅前五的个股分别为：倍益康（-8.4%）、万达轴 承（-7.5%）、西磁科技（-5.4%）、星辰科技（-5.3%）、纬达光电（-5.2%）。 相关研究 北交所：市场震荡分化，主题轮动下聚焦科技 主线与国产替代机遇—北交所市场点评—— 20250311 2025-03-12 北交所：历史新高前博弈情绪趋浓，把握政策 方向，做好中长期布局—北交所市场点评—— 20250310 2025-03-11 北交所：周内放量上涨超 6%，高波动下流动 性博弈加剧 — 北 交 所 市 ...

公司深度研究 | 深高速 华南公路元老，深耕公路主业，大环保业务有望步入收获期 证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 深高速（600548.SH）首次覆盖报告 摘要内容 【核心结论】我们认为公司作为华南地区公路元老，公路主业的收益质量较 高，有望实现稳健增长。大环保业务前景向好，清洁能源发电、固废资源化 处理业务未来盈利可期。绝对估值法（DDM 估值）下计算的目标价为 12.55 元，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 【报告亮点】公司 2024 业绩预告发布后，市场对公司业务未来发展持有较 为悲观的预期。我们认为，公司主营业务未来增长向好。①受益于深中通道 对公司沿江项目和机荷项目的引流作用，叠加宏观经济复苏、粤港澳大湾区 政策支持，公司公路业务有望稳健增长；②大环保业务有望步入收获期，清 洁能源发电项目、餐厨垃圾处理两项业务均具备一定的进入壁垒，经过近 10 年的探索发展，有望迈入收获期。 公司是华南老牌高速公路运营企业，深耕公路主业，开拓大环保业务。1） 华南地区高速公路元老，实控人为深圳市国资委。2）深耕公路主业，开拓 大环保业务。3）财务复盘：2014-2023 年，营业收入呈先升后降的趋势， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - AI Coding is becoming a breakthrough point for the commercialization of Agents, with the programming field's clear rules providing a natural constraint framework for Agent applications. The technical characteristics of programming environments offer an ideal testing ground for Agent self-correction, while the atomic tasks in programming align well with the chain reasoning mechanism of large models. The strong demand for enterprise development efficiency creates a clear willingness to pay, leading to a complete closed loop of "technology validation - product iteration - commercial monetization" in the AI programming field [1][8]. Summary by Sections Development Stages of AI Large Models in Programming - The application development of AI large models in programming is divided into three stages: 1. LLM as Copilot: Assists programmers without changing the professional division of software engineering. 2. LLM as Agent: Can autonomously complete certain tasks, acting as a single-function expert. 3. LLM as Multi-Agent: Multiple agents collaborate to complete complex tasks, with humans responsible for creativity and confirmation [2][9]. Key Products and Companies - Notable AI programming products include: - GitHub Copilot: Launched in 2021, it has 1.8 million paid subscribers and an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $300 million, accounting for 40% of GitHub's overall revenue growth [13]. - Cursor: A specialized IDE that integrates AI deeply, focusing on optimizing user experience and model interaction [16]. - Devin: An AI programmer capable of independently completing projects, with a subscription fee of $500/month [20][21]. - Baidu Comate: Upgraded to Agent mode, achieving a code adoption rate of 46% among its users [26][27]. - Alibaba Tongyi Lingma: An AI programmer that can autonomously handle complex development tasks, significantly improving efficiency [28][29]. - Tencent Cloud AI Code Assistant: Achieved a 30%+ improvement in code generation accuracy after integrating DeepSeek-R1 [31]. Market Performance - The computer industry has shown relative performance with a 1-month increase of 4.59%, a 3-month increase of 7.49%, and a 12-month increase of 34.16%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [7].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" [2][4] Core Views - The company is actively extending its layout in the computing ecosystem by launching products and solutions in storage, cybersecurity, big data, and cloud computing, achieving a full industry chain layout [2] - The company has invested in several quality assets, forming comprehensive coverage of the computing power industry chain, from upstream chips and server hardware to downstream cloud service providers [2] - With the expansion of capital expenditure by downstream customers and continuous optimization of products for generative AI scenarios, the company is expected to enhance its competitive advantage and accelerate the commercialization of new-generation products [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 13.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.911 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 5.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1][4] - The direct sales model generated revenue of 12.191 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.60%, up 0.93 percentage points from 2023 [1] - The distribution model generated revenue of 910 million yuan, down 16% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.25%, up 0.07 percentage points from 2023 [1] - The company effectively controlled accounts receivable, which amounted to 2.268 billion yuan at the end of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10% [1] Future Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.805 billion yuan, 3.489 billion yuan, and 3.996 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 46.8%, 24.4%, and 14.5% [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.54 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2025 [1][4][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.16 billion, 2.34 billion, and 2.52 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with EPS projected at 0.35, 0.38, and 0.41 CNY [1][16]. - The report highlights a shift in the steel industry from administrative to market-driven capacity reduction, indicating a turning point in the sector [2][13]. - The company's integrated layout is seen as a key growth driver, focusing on high-end and international markets, which aligns with the industrial development strategy of Nanjing [3][14]. Industry Overview - The steel industry is undergoing a supply-side reform characterized by high-end, green, and intelligent production methods, along with industry consolidation [2][38]. - The report notes that the demand side of the steel industry is under pressure, with economic benefits expected to decline in the first half of 2024 [45]. Company Analysis - The company has a comprehensive industrial layout that enhances its return on equity (ROE) stability while seeking new growth points [3][14]. - The focus on high-end products and international markets is increasing, with a growing share of high-margin export business [3][14]. - The company is positioned as a key player in Nanjing's industrial strategy, likely to receive more policy and resource support [3][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be 71.58 billion, 72.42 billion, and 73.74 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of -1.3%, 1.2%, and 1.8% [11][16]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% for net profits from 2024 to 2026, significantly higher than the industry average [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Overweight" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [49]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the average price of live pigs as of March 7 is 14.45 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.41% from the previous week, while year-on-year prices remain stable. Major pig farming companies, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, reported significant year-on-year increases in their pig output for January and February, with growth rates of 10.54% and 20.58% respectively [1][8]. - In the poultry sector, the average price of white feathered broilers has rebounded slightly to 6.59 CNY/kg, up 8.03% week-on-week, but remains low due to oversupply, leading to significant losses for farmers [2][9]. - The Chinese government has announced tariffs on certain agricultural products from the U.S. and Canada, including a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, and corn, and a 10% tariff on soybeans and pork. This is expected to have limited impact on domestic corn and wheat prices due to low import dependency [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 14.45 CNY/kg, down 0.41% week-on-week, with major companies reporting increased output [1][8]. - The slaughter volume from March 1 to March 7 was 984,600 pigs, up 3.53% week-on-week and 3.04% year-on-year [1][8]. - The average weight of pigs sold increased to 127.06 kg, with a higher proportion of larger pigs being sold [1][8]. 2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feathered broilers is 6.59 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 8.03% but still low due to oversupply [2][9]. - The price of broiler chicks is 2.54 CNY/chick, up 10.92% week-on-week, but still below the cost line for farmers [2][9]. - Profit margins for broiler farming remain negative, with losses reported for both broilers and parent stock [2][9]. 3. Agricultural Products - Tariffs on U.S. and Canadian agricultural products are expected to have limited impact on domestic prices due to low import dependency for corn and wheat [3][11]. - The average prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans as of March 7 are 2,424.61 CNY/ton, 2,229.12 CNY/ton, and 3,856.79 CNY/ton respectively, with wheat and soybeans showing a decline [10][30]. 4. Feed Industry - The total industrial feed production in 2024 is projected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year, with notable growth in pet feed [12][14]. - Prices for various types of feed have shown mixed trends, with pig feed prices at 3.37 CNY/kg, up 0.30% week-on-week [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a weekly increase of 7.08%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.52 percentage points [1][9]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment has improved, leading to a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors. The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical commodities, recommending industrial metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as the steel sector [2][21]. - The government work report for 2025 sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and a budget deficit rate of approximately 4%, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal policies to boost consumption and improve macroeconomic sentiment [2][21]. - Key price movements include a significant drop in alumina prices, which is expected to enhance the profitability of electrolytic aluminum producers. The report anticipates a continued upward trend in electrolytic aluminum prices due to a tight supply situation [2][22]. - The report highlights the potential for copper prices to rise amid "re-inflation" expectations, with a focus on the supply dynamics and the possibility of reduced production in the smelting sector [2][24]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading at +7.08%. Industrial metals increased by 8.43%, precious metals by 6.48%, and energy metals by 4.58% [1][9]. - Top-performing stocks included Huayu Mining (+47.77%) and Xinweiling (+45.12%), while the worst performers were Liyuan Co. (-8.97%) and *ST Zhongrun (-8.88%) [1][9]. Metal Prices & Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME reached $9,602.00 per ton, up 2.57% week-on-week, while domestic prices were at ¥78,320.00 per ton, up 1.93% [16][27]. - Aluminum prices increased to $2,689.00 per ton on the LME, a rise of 3.26%, with domestic prices at ¥20,835.00 per ton, up 0.94% [25][27]. - Zinc prices also saw an increase, with LME prices at $2,882.00 per ton, up 3.00% [17][27]. Core Insights Update and Key Stock Tracking - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the non-ferrous metals sector, recommending investments in copper and aluminum due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and improving demand [2][22]. - The report notes that the price of strategic metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxide has stabilized, with a current price of ¥460,900.00 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.44% [53][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry and recommends a strategic focus on AI software applications and related sectors [1][2][3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation driven by AI technology, highlighting the resurgence of market interest in AI themes and the potential for investment in the AI software application sector [1] - It identifies opportunities in the domestic AI computing power supply chain, particularly in cloud service providers, computing power leasing, and various hardware components [2] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing sustained interest, with a trend of expanding from structural components to electronic components, indicating potential for collaborative development within the electronics industry [3] - The report also notes the value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, driven by advancements in large model technology and the open-source movement [3] - The consumer electronics panel supply-demand dynamics are improving, with signs of price increases due to rising demand and supply-side adjustments [6] Summary by Sections AI Industry - Continued optimism regarding the growth potential of the AI industry, particularly in software applications and computing power supply chains [1][2] - Key companies mentioned include: 用友网络, 金蝶国际, 汉得信息, and others [1] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is expanding, with electronic architecture similar to that of intelligent driving systems [3] - Relevant companies include: 峰岹科技, 思瑞浦, and others [3] Internet Sector - The report highlights the ongoing value reassessment in the Hong Kong internet sector, particularly for Tencent Holdings due to its diverse AI application scenarios [3] Consumer Electronics - The report suggests investment opportunities in the panel industry, with companies like TCL 科技, 彩虹股份, and 京东方 being highlighted [6]