客座率维持高位，座收或超预期 [Table_Industry] 航空运输 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 09 月 17 日 。。 [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交通运输行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 航空运输月度专题：客座率维持高位，座收 或超预期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 09 月 17 日 本期内容提要: 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 航空运输 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_S [事件： Table_Summary ummar 各航司发布 y] ] 2025 年 8 月经营数据。 ➢ 投资建议 兑人民币汇率为 7.1027 元，较 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of policies aimed at boosting service consumption and expanding domestic demand, with a focus on various sectors including education, tourism, IP, sports, exhibitions, and nursing [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Education - Focus on K12 education and vocational training, with expectations for smoother approval processes for non-academic training licenses and increased market opportunities for employment-oriented vocational education. Recommended companies include DouShen Education, Angli Education, and China Oriental Education [3] Tourism - Emphasis on attracting more foreign visitors and enhancing travel services. Investment opportunities are identified in OTA (Online Travel Agencies) such as Ctrip Group, scenic spots like Xiyu Tourism, hotels like ShouLi Hotel, and tourism retail companies like China Duty Free Group [3] Intellectual Property (IP) - Recommendations to explore traditional cultural IP markets and develop new service consumption scenarios. Companies to watch include Songcheng Performance and Pop Mart [3] Sports - Encouragement for introducing foreign sports events and supporting local sports competitions. Investment opportunities include event operations firms like Lisheng Sports and Lansheng Co [3] Exhibitions - Focus on cultivating international markets for medical and exhibition services, with recommended companies including Lansheng Co and Miao Exhibition [3] Nursing - Highlighting the importance of training personnel in elderly care and long-term care services, with a focus on Saint Bella [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in thermal power growth year-on-year, with various provinces implementing the "136" policy, leading to significant differentiation in support mechanisms across regions [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the need for clarity on the mechanism pricing details, which will impact investment strategies and forecasting services in the power sector [8][10]. Monthly Power Demand Analysis - In July 2025, total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.60%, an increase of 3.20 percentage points compared to June [18]. - By sector, the first, second, and third industries saw year-on-year growth rates of +20.20%, +4.70%, and +10.70%, respectively, with residential electricity consumption increasing by 18.00% [20][32]. Monthly Power Production Analysis - National power generation in July 2025 increased by 3.10% year-on-year, with thermal power generation rising by 4.30% [43]. - The average utilization hours for thermal power plants were 2,367 hours, while solar power plants had an average of 678 hours [3][43]. Monthly Power Market Data - The average monthly purchase price for electricity in September was 374.50 RMB/MWh, reflecting a decrease of 2.51% month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 5.33% [3][52]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the power sector is poised for profit improvement and value reassessment, particularly as the supply-demand balance stabilizes and coal power's peak value becomes more pronounced [3][10]. - Key beneficiaries identified include coal-power integrated companies and national coal-power leaders, such as Xinjie Energy and Huaneng International [3][10].

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth has significantly declined, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of only 0.5% in the first eight months of 2025, falling short of market expectations by 0.8 percentage points[5] - The marginal decline in fixed investment growth accelerated in July and August, with both months experiencing a drop exceeding 1 percentage point[5] - The current level of fixed investment growth is at a historical low, positioned at the 1.9th percentile, marking the weakest performance since data collection began, excluding the first three quarters of 2020[6] Group 2: Investment Categories Analysis - All three major categories of fixed investment—manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate—are experiencing downward trends, with infrastructure investment growth declining due to project implementation delays and adverse weather conditions[8] - Equipment purchase investment remains the only significant support for fixed investment, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4% in the first eight months of 2025, contributing 2.1 percentage points to overall fixed investment growth[8] - Construction and other investment categories are in negative territory, with construction investment down by 2.2% and other investments down by 0.9%[8] Group 3: Transition in Investment Types - The type of fixed investment is shifting from high-growth expansion projects to new construction, with expansion investments now entering negative growth at -5.6% year-on-year[9] - New construction investment, while currently the highest growth category, only increased by 6.7% year-on-year in the first seven months, indicating limited potential for acceleration[9] - The decline in high-growth expansion investments, coupled with insufficient new construction activity, is likely to exacerbate the decline in overall fixed investment growth[9] Group 4: Risks and Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence recovery is slow, and the implementation of policies is not meeting expectations, posing risks to investment and consumption[24]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's bond purchase is approaching, which is conducive to the sustainability of fiscal expansion and may be implemented in Q4 or even October. - The early issuance of replacement bonds in Q4 is not the baseline expectation. If it happens, the probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases will increase. - The significance of the inflection point of social financing has declined, but the pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge, which will bring some support to the bond market. - At the current position, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about bonds. In the short - term, investors can play the rebound and wait for the central bank's bond purchase to be implemented later. [2][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. The central bank's bond purchase is conducive to the sustainability of fiscal expansion - The net supply of government bonds has been increasing, with a 3 - year compound growth rate of 24% from 2022 - 2025, and the proportion of bond interest payments in fiscal expenditure has reached 4.5% in 2024. Future government bond issuance is likely to remain high. - Commercial banks' ability to absorb government bonds has declined, leading to frequent "flying" in the primary issuance of government bonds this year. - Low - interest rates are crucial for fiscal sustainability. In Japan, lower interest rates have supported continuous fiscal expansion. In China, a 10BP increase in bond issuance interest rates in 2025 would increase fiscal interest payments by 22.6 billion, and a 10BP increase in the average cost of existing debt could lead to an increase in interest - payment costs of over 100 billion. [8][9][13] 2. The central bank's recent measures to improve bond market liquidity may be preparations before bond purchases - The second meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank in early September is regarded as a signal for the central bank to restart bond purchases. - The central bank may want to improve the bond market infrastructure first to reduce the impact of its bond - buying behavior on the yield curve. - In July, the central bank proposed to cancel the freeze on collateral for bond repurchases, and on September 12, the China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. and the National Inter - bank Funding Center announced a centralized bond lending business, which may increase market liquidity. The central bank may restart bond purchases in Q4 or even October. [20][27][29] 3. The early issuance of replacement bonds in Q4 is not the baseline expectation. If it happens, the probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases will further increase - The statement of "pre - allocating part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and using the debt - resolution quota earlier" does not necessarily mean the early issuance of 2 trillion replacement bonds in Q4. The new debt quota mentioned may refer to 80 billion of new local special bonds for debt resolution, and early allocation of this quota has been a common practice since 2019. - It is estimated that the average monthly net financing of government bonds in Q4 is about 633.5 billion. Unless there is a significant decrease in fiscal deposits in September, the early issuance of replacement bonds in Q4 is not the baseline expectation. Even if they are issued early, the central bank is likely to take measures to maintain liquidity, increasing the probability of bond purchases in Q4. [30][35][39] 4. The significance of the inflection point of social financing has declined, but the pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge - In August, the new social financing was 256.93 billion, slightly higher than expected but with a year - on - year decrease. Credit and government bonds were the main drags. The social financing growth rate dropped to 8.8%. - The significance of the social financing inflection point has decreased since 2021 due to the weakening impact of the real - estate cycle. However, the pressure on the fundamentals is increasing, as shown by weak export and inflation data in August and slow improvement in high - frequency data such as real - estate sales and construction - related indicators. This may support the bond market. [40][48] 5. At the current position, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about bonds. In the short - term, play the rebound and wait for the central bank's bond purchase to be implemented later - Although the bond market may face external disturbances such as the implementation of the redemption - fee new rule and the adjustment of the tax - exemption policy for public - fund dividends, after the 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.83%, panic has been largely released. - The large - scale buying by the allocation portfolio last week indicates that the interest rate may have reached the top. - It is recommended to play the short - term interest - rate rebound, keep a neutral position, and reserve funds for further investment. 3 - 5 - year policy - financial bonds and secondary bonds have increased in allocation value, while long - term bonds may be affected by the equity market and should be watched in the short - term. [49][52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report emphasizes a focus on value competition and strong performance resilience [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company benefits from the government's continued support for the consumption upgrade policy, with a reported revenue of 669 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 92 million yuan, up 103.18% year-on-year [1]. - The company maintains a differentiated positioning in the mid-to-high-end market, focusing on product leadership, brand upgrades, and channel expansion, leveraging design, technology, and service enhancements [1][2]. - Despite challenges in the real estate sector, the company has successfully implemented a differentiated strategy, enhancing product offerings and increasing the proportion of self-made soft products to boost customer value [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 669 million yuan, with a net profit of 92 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase in profitability [1]. - The company’s gross margin stood at 46.61%, with a net profit margin of 13.79% in H1 2025, indicating strong operational efficiency [4][5]. - The company forecasts net profits of 140 million, 180 million, and 220 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.1X, 16.2X, and 12.9X [5]. Business Segments - The company’s kitchen cabinet and whole-house customization segments reported revenues of 119 million and 550 million yuan, respectively, with the latter showing a year-on-year growth of 17.57% [2]. - The distribution channel generated 519 million yuan in revenue, up 19.18% year-on-year, while the direct sales channel achieved 121 million yuan, reflecting a 9.20% increase [3]. - The company is actively transforming its bulk business by collaborating with state-owned enterprises and local investment companies, targeting high-end improvement segments [3]. Operational Efficiency - The company has optimized its cost structure, resulting in a decrease in the expense ratio to 32.17% in H1 2025, down 8.26 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Inventory turnover days improved to 45.53 days, and accounts receivable turnover days decreased to 23.20 days, indicating enhanced operational quality [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The recent approval for Hunan University of Foreign Economics and Trade to proceed with the classification registration of for-profit private schools marks a significant step forward in the private higher education sector, which has seen stagnation for nearly three years [4] - The approval is expected to serve as a reference for other provinces, potentially accelerating the progress of for-profit classifications across the country [4] - The private higher education sector is anticipated to experience a valuation recovery, with current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios ranging from 3x to 6x, suggesting significant upside potential [4] - The report highlights investment opportunities in the private higher education sector, particularly in companies like Zhongjiao Holdings, as the market begins to recover [4] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Hunan University of Foreign Economics and Trade has received government approval to initiate the process of becoming a for-profit institution, which is a crucial development in the sector [4] - The last peak in for-profit classification progress occurred in October 2022, with successful transitions of institutions like Harbin Huade College and Harbin Petroleum College [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the approval of Hunan University of Foreign Economics and Trade could lead to a broader recovery in the private higher education sector, which has been under pressure due to previous stagnation [4] - The anticipated valuation recovery is compared to the market conditions observed in late 2022, indicating a potential resurgence in investor interest [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 6.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, and a net profit of 2.665 billion yuan, up 6.87% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is focusing on shareholder returns with a proposed cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.444 billion yuan [7] - The revenue structure is improving, with significant growth in the internet and communications sectors, which saw year-on-year increases of 88.82% and 76.84%, respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 2.665 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 47%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s operating cash flow was 3.402 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.6% increase year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The total number of media points decreased by 3.7% to 2.972 million, with a notable increase in TV media [4] - The revenue from building media was 5.63 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year, while cinema media revenue was 469 million yuan, up 3.1% [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to install at least 1.05 million "Touch" devices by the end of 2025, with a target of over 2 million by 2026 [4] - The integration of AI in advertising is expected to significantly reduce costs and enhance service for small and medium clients, with over 80% of partners utilizing AI capabilities [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.533 billion yuan, 14.494 billion yuan, and 15.543 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.555 billion yuan, 6.144 billion yuan, and 6.833 billion yuan [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the environmental sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous growth of centralized heating area in China, with a total of 11.549 billion square meters in 2023, maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8% from 2010 to 2023 [18] - The report emphasizes the ongoing reform of heating prices, which is expected to trend upwards, potentially improving profitability for heating companies [37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 12, the environmental sector increased by 1.00%, underperforming the broader market, which rose by 1.52% [4][11] - The water treatment sector saw a rise of 4.31%, while the solid waste management sector showed mixed results with some sub-sectors declining [12] Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the release of the "National Industrial Resource Comprehensive Utilization Advanced Applicable Process Technology Equipment Catalog (2025 Edition)" aimed at promoting industrial solid waste reduction and resource utilization [39] - It also mentions the implementation of policies to integrate artificial intelligence with energy development, focusing on clean energy [40][41] Centralized Heating Analysis - The report details that in 2023, residential heating accounted for 76% of the total heating area, with Shandong province being the largest heating area [18] - The main heating method is combined heat and power (CHP), which constitutes 45% of the heating sources, while coal remains the dominant fuel source [22][24] - The report indicates that heating prices are determined by government regulations, and recent reforms are expected to lead to price increases, enhancing the profitability of heating companies [33][37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will maintain high demand for energy conservation and environmental protection, with specific recommendations for companies such as Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [56]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that there is a small divergence among investors regarding the bull market, but a significant divergence remains between slow and fast bull markets. The US stock market exemplifies a slow bull market, with a one-year increase of over 40% being rare, and subsequent annual increases tend to decline significantly after reaching this level. The Shanghai Composite Index has also shown signs of a slow bull market from 2016 to 2021, with significant fluctuations occurring after reaching a rolling annual increase of 30% [3][8][9] - If the current bull market is a slow bull, based on historical patterns from 2016-2021 for the Shanghai Composite Index and the S&P 500 since 1995, it is unlikely to see significant increases in the index over the next six months. Conversely, if it is a fast bull market, the fluctuations and corrections are typically short-lived, often lasting 1-2 months, with the potential for a continuous rise after October [3][4][14] - The current bull market is catalyzed by policies, suggesting a high probability of evolving into a large-scale bull market. The resonance between market policies and micro liquidity tends to facilitate significant bull markets [4][18][20] Group 2 - Historical evidence shows that when the scale of equity financing is lower than the cash dividends of listed companies, larger bull markets tend to occur. This situation was observed in 1995, 2005, and 2013, leading to substantial bull markets in the following years. Currently, the equity financing scale is below dividends, indicating a potential for a significant bull market in the next two years [17][18] - The report suggests that the market is likely to experience a main upward trend after a narrow fluctuation in September, with increased policy expectations in the second half of the year. The structural profitability effect in the market has been evident for nearly a year, and it is anticipated that resident funds will gradually increase, indicating that the market has likely entered a main upward wave [20][22] - The report highlights that the configuration of financial sectors should shift from banks to non-banking financials, as the latter is expected to show greater performance elasticity in the context of a rising bull market. Additionally, sectors such as non-ferrous metals and power equipment are projected to perform well, especially if economic conditions improve or policy support is provided [27][28]