Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TCL Electronics with a "Buy" rating [2][5]. Core Views - TCL Electronics is focusing on high-end MiniLED televisions to enhance its global brand strength, with expectations to surpass Samsung in global brand sales within three years [5]. - The company has set ambitious performance targets through stock incentive plans, aiming for significant profit growth in the coming years [5][36]. - The global black television market is shifting in favor of Chinese brands, with TCL positioned to benefit from this trend as competitors like Samsung and LG exit the LCD panel production market [5][63]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for TCL Electronics are as follows: - 2024: 99,322 million HKD - 2025: 114,834 million HKD (growth of 15.6%) - 2026: 128,495 million HKD (growth of 11.9%) - 2027: 142,249 million HKD (growth of 10.7%) [2][5]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 1,759 million HKD - 2025: 2,378 million HKD (growth of 35.2%) - 2026: 2,878 million HKD (growth of 21.1%) - 2027: 3,463 million HKD (growth of 20.3%) [2][5]. Market Trends - The global television market is experiencing stable demand, with a notable increase in Mini LED technology adoption, expected to grow significantly in the coming years [49][50]. - The trend towards larger screen sizes is becoming mainstream, with a projected increase in demand for televisions over 80 inches [57]. - High refresh rate televisions are also seeing rapid growth, with expectations for significant increases in market share [60]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a shift in the competitive landscape, with Korean companies like Samsung and LG exiting the LCD panel market, which may benefit TCL and other Chinese brands [63][64]. - TCL's strategy of focusing on high-end products and large screens is expected to improve its market position against traditional competitors [5][63].

Group 1: Subsidy Overview - The childcare subsidy program will provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for infants under three years old starting January 1, 2025[1] - The estimated total fiscal support for the subsidy will reach approximately 118.8 billion yuan in 2025, 117.7 billion yuan in 2026, and 116.2 billion yuan in 2027[1] - By 2028, the estimated fiscal subsidy amount will decrease to 95.7 billion yuan as the subsidies for children born before 2025 will have been fully disbursed[1] Group 2: Financial Structure - The central government will cover a significant portion of the subsidy, with a cost-sharing ratio of 9:1 between central and local governments, varying by region[1] - The central government will bear 85% of the costs in the eastern region, 90% in the central region, and 95% in the western region[1] - The 2025 fiscal budget indicates a significant increase in health spending, with an additional 102.4 billion yuan allocated compared to 2024, creating room for the childcare subsidy[1] Group 3: Economic Impact - The subsidy represents approximately 0.1% of China's nominal GDP for 2024, which is relatively low compared to OECD countries where similar subsidies can reach 1.5-2.5% of GDP[1] - The expected consumption increase from the subsidy is around 78 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.16% of total retail sales[1] - The program is expected to have a gradual impact on birth rates, while providing a more immediate boost to consumer spending[1] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The childcare subsidy signals a significant shift towards more substantial birth support policies, with potential for future increases in subsidy amounts[1] - There is a possibility of developing a comprehensive policy framework that includes economic support for families, housing, and education to enhance long-term birth rates[1] - The government is also focusing on improving early childhood education and care services, as indicated by recent policy discussions[1]

Market Performance - The average daily change for the North Exchange (北证) was significantly positive, with a peak increase of 25.26% for Hengli Aluminum (恒立铝具) on July 28, 2025[8] - The average daily change for A-shares (A股) was lower, indicating a divergence in market performance between the two exchanges[7] Trading Volume and Turnover - The total trading volume on the North Exchange reached 600 billion CNY, with an average turnover rate of 16% as of July 28, 2025[6] - The trading activity reflects a robust engagement in the North Exchange compared to historical data[5] Sector Analysis - The top-performing sectors included machinery and automotive, with notable stocks like Hengli Aluminum and Mingyang Technology showing substantial gains[8] - Conversely, the technology sector faced declines, with stocks like Tianrun Technology dropping by 14.90%[9] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the North Exchange companies varied significantly, with some sectors like machinery showing higher valuations compared to others like basic chemicals[13] - The overall market valuation trends indicate a potential overvaluation in certain sectors, raising concerns about sustainability[10] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights risks including lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, and increased market competition, which could impact future performance[14] - Market volatility remains a concern, necessitating cautious investment strategies moving forward[14]

网：lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 宏观研究报告 育儿补贴快评："投资于人"具像化 事件:7月28日,中办、国办印发《育儿补贴制度实施方案》,从2025年1月 1 日起,对 3 周岁以下婴幼儿每年发放 3600元补贴。 2025 年 7 月 29 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎: 010-8092-7780 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 一、育儿补贴正式公布,财政支持千亿规模。育儿补贴成为国家制度,是"投 o 资于人"政策方向的坚实一步。根据方案公布的补贴标准,育儿补贴按年发放, 现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年 3600 元。其中对 2025 年 1 月 1 日之前出生、不 满 3 周岁的婴幼儿(2022~2024 年出生),按应补贴月数折算计发补贴。2022- 2024 年我国出生人口数量分别为 956、902、954 万人 ...

Group 1: Tianli Composite Materials - Tianli Composite is a leading company in the domestic layered metal composite materials industry, established in 2003 and listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange in 2023. The company has developed over fifty types of layered metal composite materials, which have been certified by major domestic and international manufacturers [2][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 135.02 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 22.74%, and a net profit of 9.44 million yuan, down 47.08% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to structural overcapacity in downstream industries, leading to reduced project construction demand and fewer major project orders [3][5]. - The application fields for layered metal composite materials include petrochemical, power, metallurgy, new energy, marine engineering, environmental protection, and aerospace. The industry has significant growth potential as these materials gradually replace traditional materials due to their performance and cost advantages [4][5]. Group 2: Banking Sector - In Q2 2025, the total market value of public funds' holdings in the banking sector reached 63.51 billion yuan, an increase of 27.12% quarter-on-quarter, with a holding ratio of 4.85%, the highest since Q2 2021 [8][9]. - The net inflow of northbound funds into the banking sector was 254.2 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.69%, with a holding ratio of 11.1% [10]. - The banking sector is benefiting from the expansion of passive index funds and the optimization of performance benchmarks, indicating a potential turning point in performance as fundamental factors continue to accumulate positively [11]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry - The CPIA has raised its forecast for new photovoltaic installations in China for 2025 to between 270GW and 300GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.52% [15]. - The photovoltaic manufacturing sector experienced a significant decline in production growth in the first half of 2025, with upstream polysilicon production down 43.8% year-on-year [14][15]. - The "anti-involution" measures in the photovoltaic industry aim to eliminate low-cost sales practices, which are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity and improve the overall market environment [17][19]. Group 4: Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 10.74 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, with a net profit of 2.37 billion yuan, up 37.2% [26][27]. - The second growth curve, including energy drinks and electrolyte beverages, showed significant growth, with revenue from these categories increasing by 18.8% and 190.0% respectively in Q2 2025 [27][29]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth trends in Q3 2025 due to accelerated network development and the rapid rollout of new products [29]. Group 5: Luolai Life - Luolai Life focuses on home textile products, with a revenue of 4.559 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.22%. However, Q1 2025 showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 1.094 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.57% year-on-year [32][33]. - The company employs a multi-channel sales strategy, integrating online and offline channels to enhance market penetration, particularly in lower-tier cities [33][34]. - The company is actively optimizing its supply chain and improving operational efficiency through smart manufacturing initiatives, which are expected to support long-term growth [34].

Group 1: Tianli Composite Materials - Tianli Composite is a leading company in the domestic layered metal composite materials industry, established in 2003 and listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange in 2023. The company has developed over fifty types of layered metal composite materials, which have been certified by major domestic and international manufacturers [2][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 135.02 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 22.74%, and a net profit of 9.44 million yuan, down 47.08% year-on-year. This decline is attributed to structural overcapacity in downstream industries, leading to reduced project construction demand and fewer major project orders [3][5]. - The application areas for layered metal composite materials include petrochemical, power, metallurgy, new energy, marine engineering, environmental protection, and aerospace. The industry has significant growth potential as these materials gradually replace traditional materials due to their performance and cost advantages [4][5]. Group 2: Banking Sector - In Q2 2025, the total market value of public funds' holdings in the banking sector reached 63.51 billion yuan, an increase of 27.12% quarter-on-quarter, with a holding ratio of 4.85%, the highest since Q2 2021 [8][9]. - The net inflow of northbound funds into the banking sector was 254.2 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.69%, with a net inflow of 26.596 billion yuan [10]. - The banking sector is benefiting from the expansion of passive index funds and the optimization of performance benchmarks, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and potential performance recovery [11]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry - The CPIA has raised its forecast for China's new photovoltaic installations in 2025 to between 270GW and 300GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.52% [15]. - The photovoltaic manufacturing sector experienced a significant decline in production growth in the first half of 2025, with upstream polysilicon production down 43.8% year-on-year [14][15]. - The industry is undergoing a "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement, focusing on eliminating low-cost sales practices to enhance product quality and promote orderly competition [17][19]. Group 4: Dongpeng Beverage - Dongpeng Beverage reported a revenue of 10.74 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, with a net profit of 2.37 billion yuan, up 37.2% year-on-year [26][27]. - The company is transitioning towards a comprehensive beverage group, with significant growth in energy drinks and electrolyte beverages, and an increase in the number of distribution points [27][29]. - The company is expected to maintain high growth trends in Q3 2025 due to accelerated network development and the introduction of new products [29][30]. Group 5: Luolai Life - Luolai Life focuses on home textile products, with a revenue of 4.559 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.22%, but showing signs of recovery with a revenue of 1.094 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 0.57% year-on-year [32][33]. - The company employs a multi-channel sales strategy, integrating online and offline channels to enhance market penetration, particularly in lower-tier cities [33][34]. - The company is actively optimizing its supply chain and enhancing operational efficiency through smart manufacturing initiatives [34][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry is experiencing stable growth, particularly in the black and clean appliance sectors, with mid-term performance being relatively strong [1] - The home appliance index has seen a 3.07% increase as of July 25, 2025, but the market is concerned about the sustainability of growth due to policy uncertainties and declining export figures [3][6] - The report highlights the impact of government policies, such as the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has provided support for domestic demand but is expected to see diminishing returns in the latter half of the year [16][23] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance and Institutional Allocation - As of July 25, 2025, the home appliance index has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 4.85% [6] - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the home appliance sector is 14.69, below the historical average of 17.63 [6] 2. Domestic Demand and Policy Support - The "old-for-new" policy has been a significant driver for domestic sales, but its effectiveness is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025 due to funding gaps [16][23] - Retail sales in June 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [22] 3. Export Challenges - Home appliance exports have faced challenges, with significant declines in April, May, and June 2025, attributed to U.S. tariff policies and a high base from the previous year [4][42] - The report notes that companies with production capabilities in Southeast Asia may have a competitive advantage, while others face pressure on profit margins due to late-stage capacity expansions [4] 4. Air Conditioning Sector - The air conditioning market is expected to see high demand in 2024, driven by government subsidies, but June 2025 sales were below expectations [48][61] - The average selling price of air conditioners has stabilized after a decline earlier in the year, with competition expected to remain intense [81] 5. Black Appliances and Globalization - The global market for televisions is stabilizing, with TCL Electronics projecting a significant increase in mid-term profits due to rising demand [3] - The report emphasizes the trend towards high-end and large-screen televisions, with Mini LED technology expected to see substantial growth [3] 6. Clean Appliances - The clean appliance sector is benefiting from government subsidies, with strong retail growth observed [3] - Companies like Ecovacs have reported better-than-expected mid-term performance, indicating potential investment opportunities [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, 罗莱生活 (002293.SZ) [2][39]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the home textile industry, focusing on bed products and covering high-end, mid-high-end, and mass-market segments. The company has shown resilience in its operations despite recent challenges [7][9]. - The company is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025, with projected revenues of 48.42 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.29 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.2% year-on-year growth [2][39]. - The company is actively optimizing its channel layout and enhancing its retail transformation, which includes expanding direct sales and improving operational efficiency [28][39]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 45.59 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 14.2%. However, it is expected to recover with revenues of 48.42 billion yuan in 2025, 52.22 billion yuan in 2026, and 55.59 billion yuan in 2027 [2][40]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 5.29 billion yuan, with further increases to 5.80 billion yuan in 2026 and 6.34 billion yuan in 2027 [2][40]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 48.9% by 2027 [2][40]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong market presence, with a significant share in the domestic home textile market, particularly in the East China region, which accounted for 41.3% of its revenue in 2024 [18][19]. - The company employs a multi-channel sales strategy, integrating online and offline channels, and has been expanding its direct sales while optimizing its franchise operations [29][32]. - The company is also investing in smart manufacturing through the establishment of a smart industrial park, which is expected to enhance production capacity and efficiency [28][33]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's revenue from online sales was 13.82 billion yuan, while direct sales and franchise sales were 4.01 billion yuan and 14.48 billion yuan, respectively [19][30]. - The company has been focusing on high-value products, which has contributed to an increase in gross margin, with the overall gross margin rising from 43.2% in 2020 to 48% in 2024 [25][26]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned for future growth due to its strategic initiatives in retail transformation and supply chain optimization. The current valuation is deemed sustainable, with potential for further appreciation [39][41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a potential for growth but with caution advised [2][30]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance pressure due to a decline in domestic textile and apparel retail consumption, with a reported revenue of 5.153 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.91% year-on-year, and a net profit of 494.96 million yuan, down 29.07% year-on-year [7][10]. - The company is focusing on multi-brand development and has established a comprehensive marketing network that integrates online and offline channels, aiming to enhance market share and operational efficiency [7][24][27]. - The acquisition of the global intellectual property rights of the high-end outdoor brand Woolrich is expected to strengthen the company's international presence and brand portfolio [10][24]. Financial Performance Forecast - The projected financial metrics for the company are as follows: - Revenue (in million yuan): 5,153.23 in 2024, 5,494.92 in 2025, 5,868.72 in 2026, and 6,260.34 in 2027 [2][31]. - Net profit (in million yuan): 494.96 in 2024, 475.39 in 2025, 534.90 in 2026, and 595.86 in 2027 [2][31]. - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.34 in 2024, 0.33 in 2025, 0.37 in 2026, and 0.41 in 2027 [2][31]. - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE): 11.59 in 2024, 12.06 in 2025, 10.72 in 2026, and 9.63 in 2027 [2][31]. Business Strategy and Development - The company employs a "one main, one subsidiary, one vertical, one horizontal" strategy, establishing a balanced multi-brand matrix that includes mature, growing, and nurturing brands [7][24]. - The company has developed a full-channel marketing model that combines direct sales and franchise operations, supported by a robust online presence through major e-commerce platforms and live streaming channels [7][27]. - The company is leading the digital transformation and smart manufacturing in the apparel industry, implementing a large-scale personalized smart customization system to enhance production efficiency and quality [7][29].

Macro Overview - The overall fiscal data for the first half of 2025 shows a continuous improvement trend in both total and structural aspects, with broad fiscal spending increasing significantly, providing important support for economic growth [2][3] - The general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4%, indicating a limited fiscal revenue gap [4][6] Industry Insights Food and Beverage: Baijiu Sector - The proportion of heavy holdings in the Baijiu sector by public funds has fallen below the standard allocation level, with a market value of 209 billion yuan, accounting for 2.9% of stock investment [28][31] - Major Baijiu companies are becoming high-dividend stocks, providing support for fund allocation despite a decline in overall holdings [31][30] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is expected to recover from its cyclical bottom due to the "anti-involution" wave, which aims to eliminate low-price competition and improve product quality [33][34] - Supply-side structural contradictions are anticipated to ease, with capital expenditure growth slowing down, indicating potential for improved profitability in the sector [35][36] Public Utilities: Renewable Energy - The first half of 2025 saw significant growth in renewable energy installations, with wind and solar power showing year-on-year increases of 98.9% and 107.1%, respectively [39][40] - Despite a decline in new installations in June, the overall outlook for renewable energy remains positive, with substantial growth expected in the second half of the year [40][43] Robotics and Energy Storage - The company is positioned as a leader in the reverse Carnot cycle industry chain, with significant growth potential in humanoid robots and energy storage thermal management systems [22][25] - The automotive parts business is also expected to grow rapidly, particularly in the context of the increasing demand for new energy vehicles [24][25]