3 PMI 50.5% 国银河证券|CGS 每日晨报 银河观点集锦 宏观:扩张的 PMI 背后蕴含什么? ——2025 年 3 月 PMI 分析 核心观点 国家统计局 3 月 31 日发布数据：2025 年 3 月份,制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.5% （前值 50.2%）。建筑业 PMI 53.4%（前值 52.7%），服务业 PMI 50.3%（前值 50%）。春节 因素影响逐步消退，企业生产经营活动加快，三大指数均处于扩张区间。 一、 供需继续回暖,政府支出、以旧换新和枪出口是需求主线。3月生产指数 52.6%(前 值 52.5%）。新订单指数 51.8%,新出口订单 49%,分别上升 0.7和 0.4pct。新订单指数恢复 到扩张区间展现了以旧换新政策带来的内需拉动效果还在延续;同时伴随国债和化债资金发行 前置对基建增速也有一定带动作用,3月水泥发运率明显改善。外需方面,新出口订单的超预期 上行证明抢出口效应仍在持续。从分行业新订单 PMI 上来看,消费制造业相关的纺织服装、化 学纤维和计算机电子均环比上行且处在扩张区间；设备更新利好的通用设备和专用设备分别上 涨 10.7 和 5.4pct ...

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 北证50 沪深300 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况(截至2025.03.31) ■ 成交金额（合计/亿元) -换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-05 02-13 02-19 02-21 02-25 03-03 03-07 03-13 03-17 03-19 02-17 02-27 03-11 02-11 03-31 02-07 03-21 03-27 ■A股算数平均涨跌幅 ■ 北交所算数平均涨跌幅 4 N 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 北交所日报 □国银河证券|CGS 资料来源：iFinD,中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.03.31) 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 河证券|CGS 北交所日报 表1：涨幅前十股票的市场数据（2025.03.31/财务数据为 2024O3) | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the telecommunications industry, highlighting the robust performance of major operators [3]. Core Insights - The telecommunications operators in 2024 demonstrated steady revenue growth and enhanced profitability, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth. China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom achieved revenues of CNY 10,407.59 billion (+3.12%), CNY 3,895.89 billion (+4.56%), and CNY 5,235.69 billion (+3.10%) respectively, with net profits of CNY 1,383.73 billion (+5.01%), CNY 90.3 billion (+10.49%), and CNY 330.12 billion (+8.43%) [1][7][9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Revenue and Profitability - The operators maintained a relatively stable growth trajectory in 2024, with net profit growth consistently exceeding revenue growth. The overall performance aligns with market expectations, showcasing resilience amid macroeconomic fluctuations [7][9]. Section 2: CAPEX Trends - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) for the operators are shifting towards computing power, with total CAPEX for 2024 being CNY 1,640 billion (-9.0%) for China Mobile, CNY 614 billion (-17.0%) for China Unicom, and CNY 935 billion (-5.4%) for China Telecom. The CAPEX as a percentage of total revenue stands at 15.8%, 15.8%, and 17.9% respectively [1][24][30]. Section 3: Cloud Business Growth - The cloud business is experiencing significant growth, with revenues reaching CNY 1,139 billion (+17.1%) for Tianyi Cloud, CNY 1,004 billion (+20.4%) for Mobile Cloud, and CNY 686 billion (+17.1%) for Unicom Cloud. The cloud business contributes significantly to the operators' second curve revenue, accounting for 64.57% of their total second curve income [2][44][45]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on the operators' strong performance and potential for continued growth, particularly in the context of their computing power infrastructure and cloud services. It recommends attention to China Mobile (A+H), China Telecom (A+H), and China Unicom (A+H) for long-term investment [5][60].

公司点评报告 ·房地产行业 归母净利润正增长,商业运营持续领先 2024 年报点评 2025年3月30日 新城控股(股票代码:601155) 推荐 维持评级 分析师 胡孝宇 2: huxiaoyu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码： S0130523070001 | 市场数据 | 2025-3-28 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 601155 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 13.06 | | 上证指数 | 3,351.31 | | 总股本(万股) | 225562 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 225562 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 295 | 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-3-28 100% 新城控股 沪深300 50% 0% -50% 相关研究 1. 【银河地产】公司点评_坚持双轮驱动经营,商业 收入稳定增长_新城控股 2024年半年报点评 2. 【银河地产】_公司 2024 一季报点评_新城控股_ 减值影响业绩,商业收入稳步抬升 3. 【银河地产】双轮驱动优势凸显, 商业运营稳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 202.20 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.69 billion yuan, up 80.8% year-on-year [6][12]. - The company's sales volume increased by 0.2% to 1.23 million vehicles in 2024, with export sales rising by 43.4% to 453,100 units, accounting for 36.7% of total sales [6][10]. - The introduction of advanced intelligent driving features is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and drive sales growth [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 59.94 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year and 17.9% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The average revenue per vehicle increased by 16.5% to 163,900 yuan, with export vehicle average revenue rising by 4.9% to 182,800 yuan [6][10]. - The adjusted gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 19.5%, driven by a higher proportion of sales from premium brands [6][12]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 255.46 billion yuan, 290.27 billion yuan, and 322.72 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 15.00 billion yuan, 16.92 billion yuan, and 18.73 billion yuan for the same years [8][12]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 1.75 yuan, 1.98 yuan, and 2.19 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][12].

扩张的 PMI 背后蕴含什么? -2025 年 3 月 PMI 分析 国家统计局 3 月 31 日发布数据: 2025年 3 月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 50.5%（前值 50.2%）。建筑业 PMI 53.4%（前值 52.7%），服务业 PMI 50.3% （前值 50%）。春节因素影响逐步消退，企业生产经营活动加快，三大指数均处于 扩张区间。 2025 年 3 月 31 日 分析师 张迪 宏观动态报告 □: zhangdi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 研究助理:铁伟奥 风险提示 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 一、供需继续回暖,政府支出、以旧换新和抢出口是需求主线。3月生产指数 52.6%（前值 52.5%）。新订单指数 51.8%，新出口订单 49%，分别上升 0.7 和 0.4pct。新订单指数恢复到扩张区间展现了以旧换新政策带来的内需拉动效 果还在延续;同时伴随国债和化债资金发行前置对基建增速也有一定带动作 用,3月水泥发运率明显改善。外需方面,新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the capital replenishment plans of four major banks: China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank, with total capital increases of 105 billion, 165 billion, 120 billion, and 130 billion CNY respectively [5][6]. - The issuance prices for the capital increases are set at 9.27, 6.05, 8.71, and 6.32 CNY, representing premiums of 8.8%, 10%, 18.34%, and 21.54% over the latest market prices [5][6]. - The capital increases are expected to enhance the banks' capital structures, enabling them to better manage pressures from narrowing interest margins and slowing profit growth [5]. - The report highlights that the capital raised will primarily be allocated to credit expansion, potentially generating an additional 4.84 trillion CNY in loans across the four banks [5]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios for the banks are projected to improve post-capital increase, enhancing their risk resilience [5][6]. Summary by Sections Capital Increase Details - The capital increase sizes for the four banks are as follows: CCB (1050 billion CNY), BOC (1650 billion CNY), BOCOM (1200 billion CNY), and PSBC (1300 billion CNY) [5][6]. - The corresponding price-to-book ratios after the capital increase are 0.73, 0.74, 0.67, and 0.76 [6]. Impact on Earnings and Capital Ratios - The static dilution effects on 2025 EPS are estimated at -1.93%, -4.31%, -1.53%, and -9.31% for CCB, BOC, BOCOM, and PSBC respectively [6]. - Post-capital increase, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios are expected to rise to 14.97%, 13.06%, 11.52%, and 11.07% for the respective banks [6]. Strategic Focus and Recommendations - The report suggests that the additional capital will be directed towards strategic sectors and areas of high value, aligning with macroeconomic policies [5]. - The banks are expected to enhance their core competitiveness through various initiatives, such as digital transformation and strengthening retail banking [5]. - The report continues to recommend specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank (stock code: 601128) [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank demonstrated excellent performance in 2024, with revenue of 10.909 billion yuan (+10.53%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.813 billion yuan (+16.20%). The return on equity (ROE) reached 14.15% (+0.46 percentage points) [4] - The bank's net interest income was 9.142 billion yuan (+7.54%), with a net interest margin (NIM) of 2.71%, showing a slight decline of 15 basis points year-on-year, but the downward pressure is narrowing [4] - Non-interest income grew significantly, reaching 1.767 billion yuan (+29.07%), driven by strong performance in intermediary business and investment income [4] - The asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.77% (+0.02 percentage points) and a provision coverage ratio of 500.51%, indicating robust risk mitigation capabilities [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the bank's total revenue was 10.909 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.813 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.20% [4][32] - The bank's interest income was 9.142 billion yuan, with a net interest margin of 2.71%, showing a decline of 15 basis points year-on-year [4][33] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans increased by 8.28% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 16.11% and personal loans by 2.17% [4] - Total deposits grew by 15.57%, with personal time deposits increasing by 19.76%, indicating effective cost optimization [4] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income reached 1.767 billion yuan, a significant increase of 29.07%, with fees and commissions growing by 158.54% [4][33] Asset Quality - The bank's NPL ratio stood at 0.77%, with a provision coverage ratio of 500.51%, indicating strong asset quality management [4][32] Future Outlook - The bank's strategy focuses on small and micro enterprises, with a strong competitive edge in personal operating loans. The integration of village and town banks is accelerating, suggesting promising growth potential in the future [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a marginal recovery in performance with improved revenue and net profit growth rates, alongside optimized deposit costs [1][4] - The bank's net interest income showed a positive growth of 4.68% year-on-year in Q4 2024, marking the first quarterly positive growth since Q3 2022 [4] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.34% at the end of 2024, reflecting a slight decrease [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, ICBC's revenue decreased by 2.52% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.51% [4] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 9.88%, down by 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) was 1.42%, a decrease of 19 basis points from the end of 2023, but the decline has narrowed [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans increased by 8.76% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 8.28% and retail loans by 3.51% [4] - Personal loans, including consumption and operating loans, saw significant growth rates of 28.3% and 24.6% respectively [4] - Total deposits grew by 3.9% year-on-year, with personal deposits increasing by 11.93% [4] Non-Interest Income and Wealth Management - Non-interest income decreased by 1.95% year-on-year, with a notable decline in commission income by 8.34% [4] - Wealth management showed steady growth, with retail assets under management (AUM) increasing by 10.28% year-on-year [4] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The NPL ratio was 1.34% at the end of 2024, with a coverage ratio of 214.91% [4] - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio was 14.1%, indicating a solid capital position [4] Future Outlook - The report forecasts a stable dividend payout ratio of 31.3% for 2024, with projected book value per share (BVPS) of 10.99, 11.77, and 12.57 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][43]

Group 1: Global Net Zero Goals and Challenges - 110 countries have set net zero emission targets, but only 27 countries and the EU have legally binding commitments covering approximately 16% of global greenhouse gas emissions[3] - The industrial sector accounts for nearly 30% of global carbon emissions, highlighting the need for urgent improvements in decarbonization efforts[2] - Despite some progress in energy efficiency and clean technology, the overall decarbonization pace is insufficient to meet the 2030 climate goals[5] Group 2: Importance of Public-Private Cooperation - Public-private collaboration is essential for accelerating industrial decarbonization and effective policy implementation[2] - A new cooperation framework proposed by the World Economic Forum aims to enhance collaboration between public and private sectors to achieve net zero transitions[10] - Key areas for cooperation include developing net zero financial mechanisms, improving carbon accounting standards, and supporting low-carbon supply chain transitions[12] Group 3: Current Trends and Future Directions - The number of large companies with verified climate targets increased from 865 in 2021 to 1866 in 2023, representing a 57% growth[5] - Only 6% of climate experts believe that limiting global warming to 1.5°C is achievable, with nearly half predicting a rise of over 3°C[4] - Effective public financing mechanisms and tailored incentives are crucial for ensuring the commercial viability of decarbonization projects[11]