Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The overall box office in 2025 reached 51.832 billion, with total audience attendance at 1.238 billion, showing an increase of over 20% compared to the previous year [3] - The Spring Festival and summer holiday periods contributed significantly to the box office recovery, with the Spring Festival box office reaching a record high of 9.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.69% [8] - The structure of the film market is gradually adjusting, with a concentration of top films, particularly in the animation genre, leading to a "winner takes all" scenario [8] Summary by Sections Box Office Performance - In 2025, the box office performance showed a recovery with significant contributions from key holiday periods [3][8] - The number of films grossing over 1 billion was 51, while the number of films grossing between 1-2 billion was 11, indicating a strong performance in the top tier [5] Market Trends - The film market is experiencing a structural shift, with fewer mid-tier films and a concentration of box office revenue among top films [8] - The industry is expected to continue its recovery trend, with projections for 2026 indicating a potential box office of 53.1 billion [14] Investment Opportunities - There are short-term investment opportunities in strong holiday periods, particularly during the Spring Festival and summer holidays, driven by high-quality film releases [9][11] - Companies such as Wanda Film, Bona Film, and Shanghai Film are highlighted as having significant potential for growth in the upcoming holiday seasons [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - Alibaba's cloud business is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability as it scales, with a long-term certainty of margin enhancement [2][39] - The company is currently in a high capital expenditure phase, with Q3 2025 capital expenditures reaching 31.428 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 85.12% [2][32] - Despite two consecutive quarters of declining free cash flow, Alibaba maintains a strong cash position with 292.3 billion RMB in net cash and liquid investments [2][34] Summary by Relevant Sections Cloud Business and AI Development - Alibaba's cloud business, while currently lagging behind competitors like AWS and Microsoft in EBITA margin, has the potential for significant margin improvement as it grows [2][37] - The launch of the "Qianwen" AI application has seen rapid user growth, with over 30 million monthly active users within 23 days of its public testing [15][16] - The integration of AI capabilities into Alibaba's ecosystem is expected to enhance user experience and operational efficiency across various platforms [21][23] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are estimated at 1,068.23 billion, 1,177.88 billion, and 1,298.12 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 10.3%, and 10.2% respectively [3][40] - Adjusted net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 119.85 billion, 160.11 billion, and 213.63 billion RMB, with growth rates of -24.1%, 33.6%, and 33.4% [3][40] - The target price is set at HKD 189.09 per share, based on a 12x PE ratio for FY2027 adjusted net profit and a 7x PS ratio for FY2027 cloud revenue [3][40] Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - The company is committed to high capital expenditures to ensure competitive supply, with plans to invest 380 billion RMB in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years [32] - The recent decline in free cash flow, reported at -21.84 billion RMB for Q3 2025, has raised market concerns, but the company’s cash reserves provide a buffer for new business investments [34][34] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the AI and cloud sectors is intensifying, with Alibaba's Qianwen positioned as a strong contender against other AI applications like Doubao [16][18] - The strategic integration of AI into Alibaba's e-commerce and travel services is expected to redefine user interactions and operational efficiencies [21][26]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the mechanical industry in 2026, driven by structural transformation and a rebound in external demand [3][4] - The report introduces a "risk排雷" manual to proactively identify potential market misjudgments and challenges within various sectors [3][4] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with growth in engineering machinery, industrial gases, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium battery equipment [6][8] - Key assumptions include continued government support for emerging technology industries and a stable macroeconomic recovery [11][16] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a cyclical upturn, with increased overseas market share and a gradual domestic renewal cycle [17] - Key growth drivers include global market expansion, improved domestic demand due to favorable macro policies, and a stabilizing domestic infrastructure and real estate market [17] Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is on an upward trend, with demand supported by a variety of vessel types and improving profitability for shipyards [19] - The sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints driving up ship prices and a focus on high-end, large-scale, dual-fuel vessels [20] Export Chain - The export chain is optimistic about demand recovery, particularly in the U.S. market, with a focus on strategic exports and emerging markets [22] - Key assumptions include a favorable trade environment and ongoing industrial shifts towards resource-rich countries [22] Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is viewed positively, with expectations of volume and price increases leading to improved valuations [27] - The report highlights the importance of leading companies in the sector and recommends focusing on those with operational highlights in niche markets [30] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to emerge from a downturn, with solid-state battery technology creating significant market opportunities [51] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in market size, projecting a growth from 2.06 billion in 2025 to 33.62 billion by 2030 [51] Wind Power Equipment - The wind power industry is projected to maintain high growth, particularly in offshore wind projects, with significant investments expected [63] - The report recommends focusing on leading manufacturers and components that support the offshore wind market [64] Testing and Inspection - The testing and inspection sector is expected to see upward momentum, driven by increasing demand and a trend towards consolidation among leading firms [71] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on emerging fields and the long-term growth potential of comprehensive testing companies [71] Rail Transit Equipment - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from steady investment in fixed assets and high demand for passenger and freight transport [75] - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the high-speed train sector and recommends key players in the industry [76] Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is anticipated to thrive due to sustained demand driven by oil prices and energy security concerns [79] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technical barriers and those benefiting from domestic and international market opportunities [80]

Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for A-shares after the New Year, driven by the recent gains in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index, suggesting a high probability of a positive market opening [2][3] - The report highlights three key factors that previously supported the continuous rise of A-shares: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the sustained strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector, though their continuation post-holiday remains uncertain [2][3] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and avoid chasing prices, while being prepared to increase allocations if a buying opportunity arises similar to the "golden pit" seen in early 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic analysis predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.6% year-on-year for Q4 2025, indicating a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [4] - Economic activities in December are expected to accelerate, supported by both domestic and external demand, with a reasonable chance of achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [4] - Industrial production is identified as a key driver of growth, while consumer spending is projected to see a slight recovery, although automotive sales are expected to face challenges due to declining volumes and increased discounts [4]

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment index has significantly outperformed the market since the beginning of 2025, with a cumulative increase of 62.3% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 42.0% [3][13] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing high prosperity, with the global semiconductor market expected to reach a historical high of $760.7 billion in 2026, driven by AI [3][36] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is seeing a strong recovery in wafer fab capacity utilization and expansion willingness, supported by the AI-driven storage supercycle [3][36] Group 2 - Four key investment directions are recommended: 1. Focus on etching and thin film equipment leaders driven by AI storage supercycle [3] 2. Domestic lithography machine production is expected to achieve mass production in 2026, boosting subsystem and component companies [3] 3. ALD equipment is entering a golden development period, especially in advanced logic and storage fields [3] 4. Advanced packaging continues to follow Moore's Law, providing significant opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers [3] Group 3 - Investment suggestions include leading companies such as North China Innovation, Zhongwei Company, and TuoJing Technology, as well as high-elasticity targets like XinYuanWei and HuaHaiQingKe [3] - The overall revenue of the semiconductor equipment industry is projected to grow by 36% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, with leading companies maintaining high growth rates [15] - The overall net profit of the semiconductor equipment industry is expected to increase by 22% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, with significant profit acceleration from companies like Shengmei and TuoJing [15][24] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with AI as the core engine driving the market [36] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.6% from 2004 to 2024, with a significant recovery and expansion phase starting from 2023 [36] - The capital expenditure of the top eight cloud service providers is expected to increase by 40% in 2026, reaching $600 billion, further supporting the semiconductor market growth [36]

新动能，新浦发 ——浦发银行推荐报告 投资要点 ❑ 2026 年银行股重启业绩增长周期，首推增长动能强的浦发银行，空间 35%。 分验证这一管理优势，展望未来，我们认为浦发银行经营向好态势有望延续。 ③新弹药。25Q3 末浦发银行核充率 8.87%，2025 年 10 月转债转股后，静态测算 核充率有望提升 32bp 至 9.19%。新的资本弹药为浦发银行后续扩表打开空间， 也有助于其夯实业绩改善基础、保持经营向好态势的可持续性。 ④新生态。张为忠董事长在 2024 年年报中表示，将以"数智化"推动转型。我 们在 2025 年 4 月 16 日报告中也指出，数智化驱动经营、风控、效率三大革命， 推动 ROE 向同业平均水平靠拢。从 2025 年经营表现看，这一观点正得到验证。 25Q1~3 浦发银行的年化 ROE 同比提升 0.6pc 至 7.6%，与同业差距收窄 1.5pc。 其中，经营革命驱动 25Q3 负债成本率同比下降 44bp 至 1.62%；风控革命驱动 25Q1~3 信用成本率同比下降 2bp 至 1%；效率革命驱动 25Q1~3 成本收入比同比 下降 0.5pc 至 27.5%。展望未来，浦发 ...

ETF 规模扰动提前透支了 A500 主线行情预期，量化策略风险敞口边际进一步收紧空 间有限，2026 年 1 月微盘股复苏节奏有望比往年提前。从 IM 基差维度来看，对冲策 略有望节后重新建仓，其将是小微盘复苏的重要催化。 ❑ 如何理解微盘股 4 季度的震荡行情？ 对冲策略年末保收益，资金面形成蓄力。12 月末私募基金需要根据当年收益来 计提业绩报酬，而 2025 年量化产品在上下半年呈现两极分化的表现，上半年平 均 500 指增超额年化 22.7%，大幅领先其他权益类产品。而下半年，尤其是 8 月 上旬至 9 月中旬，量化策略普遍跑输市场，对冲类产品更是受基差影响，平均回 撤 3%-5%左右。因此，年末私募产品对风险的敏感度比往年更高，从基差变化 可以看出，期货空头力量频繁变化，IM 年化基差在 18%-5%之间大幅波动，截 至 12 月 31 日，IM 年化基差收敛至 5%附近。即使是指增多头类策略，面对 A500 带来的权重股强势行情，风险敞口亦大幅收紧。对此，我们认为转机有望 在元旦后出现，对冲产品批量建仓，量化敞口的放开，都将为小微盘带来结构性 资金流入。 ❑ 如何理解 A 股微型股长期牛市？ 微 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 房地产 房地产 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 03 日 定调与展望：房地产新阶段的政策逻辑与市场前景 ——行业点评报告 行业评级: 看好(维持) 投资要点 事件：求是网发布《改善和稳定房地产市场预期》（以下简称"文章"） 点评： ❑ 承认房地产支柱作用，政策出台将更趋客观审慎 文章明确指出，房地产产业链条长、关联度高，对投资、消费、就业等关键经济 指标均有显著影响，2024 年房地产业和建筑业增加值占国内生产总值比重合计 达 13%，直接带动就业超 7000 万人，"仍然是支撑国民经济的基础产业"。我们 认为，文章自上而下的确认了房地产在经济大盘中的支柱地位，回应了市场关 于其重要性下降的疑虑。同时，文章强调要"全面辩证认识当前房地产市场面临 的形势"，指出市场正处于"深度调整"和"新旧模式转换"的关键节点。我们认为， 这预示着未来的政策思路并非简单的"救市"或"刺激"，而是基于对房地产发展规 律和阶段特征的深刻把握。政策制定将更加注重"对症下药"，强调"保持战略定 力，积极主动作为"，其核心在于通过"有力更精准的举措"来改善和稳定预期，而 非盲目托举。因此，我们认为，未来 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the A-share market post-New Year, anticipating a "good start" after the holiday due to the rise in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index [1][2][50] - There is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the three driving factors behind the recent A-share rally: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector [1][2][50] - The mid-term outlook suggests that the market may continue to rise before March, with a general recommendation to be bullish and proactive in investments [1][2][50] Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations before the New Year, with most broad indices slightly declining; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 fell by 0.59% and 0.47% respectively [10][48] - The A500 ETF's share increased by only 1.58 billion shares in the last three days before the holiday, a significant drop from the previous week [10][48] - The overall market sentiment indicated a tendency to "rest and prepare for the next battle," as reflected in the low volatility before the holiday [10][48] Sector Observations - The report highlights strong performance in the petrochemical and commercial aerospace sectors, with the oil and petrochemical sector rising by 3.92% and the commercial aerospace sector increasing by 3.05% [13][49] - The report notes a resurgence in interest in robotics and AI applications, with automotive and machinery sectors rising by 1.44% and 1.32% respectively, while consumer sectors like food and beverage saw declines [13][49] Fund Flow Analysis - The latest margin trading balance reached 2.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.47% from the previous week, indicating a positive trend in fund inflow [26][48] - The report indicates that the securities ETF saw the highest net inflow of 13.1 billion yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced the largest outflow of 8.9 billion yuan [26][48] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model shows that the current market indices have seen an increase in valuation levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index's PE-TTM at 16.59, placing it in the 91.99 percentile [40][42] - The Shenzhen Component Index's PE-TTM is at 31.24, in the 77.52 percentile, indicating a generally elevated valuation across major indices [40][42]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that during the New Year holiday (January 1-2), major asset classes showed a pattern of "divergent equities, strong non-ferrous metals, pressured bonds, and stable foreign exchange" [1][11] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market led global gains, while major European and American stock indices performed flat during the holiday [1][11] - In the commodity sector, silver continued its upward momentum from 2025, with copper, aluminum, and gold also recording slight increases [1][11] Group 2 - The overall performance of major asset classes in 2025 was characterized by "strong precious metals, rising equity markets, and commodity divergence" [2][14] - Precious metals, particularly silver, saw significant gains due to increased geopolitical tensions and a restructuring of the dollar credit system, with silver's annual increase reaching 142% [2][14][22] - The domestic equity market experienced a slow bull market driven by policy support, confidence recovery, and capital inflow, with technology stocks leading the A-share bull market [2][25] Group 3 - The report summarizes key news during the New Year holiday, including the official implementation of new fund sales regulations, which may alleviate concerns about bond fund liquidity [3][27] - The article published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to stabilize real estate market expectations and improve market conditions [3][31] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that sales related to the "old-for-new" policy exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating a significant consumer market impact [3][32] Group 4 - The report suggests that the bond market may present some short-term trading opportunities, especially following the relaxation of redemption fees for bond funds [4][35] - It is noted that the overall recovery space for bonds may be limited, and a quick trading strategy may be more favorable [4][37] - For long-term bullish positioning, patience is advised as the current market conditions are still considered relatively early in the cycle [4][37]