Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that during the New Year holiday (January 1-2), major asset classes showed a pattern of "divergent equities, strong non-ferrous metals, pressured bonds, and stable foreign exchange" [1][11] - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market led global gains, while major European and American stock indices performed flat during the holiday [1][11] - In the commodity sector, silver continued its upward momentum from 2025, with copper, aluminum, and gold also recording slight increases [1][11] Group 2 - The overall performance of major asset classes in 2025 was characterized by "strong precious metals, rising equity markets, and commodity divergence" [2][14] - Precious metals, particularly silver, saw significant gains due to increased geopolitical tensions and a restructuring of the dollar credit system, with silver's annual increase reaching 142% [2][14][22] - The domestic equity market experienced a slow bull market driven by policy support, confidence recovery, and capital inflow, with technology stocks leading the A-share bull market [2][25] Group 3 - The report summarizes key news during the New Year holiday, including the official implementation of new fund sales regulations, which may alleviate concerns about bond fund liquidity [3][27] - The article published in "Qiushi" magazine emphasized the need to stabilize real estate market expectations and improve market conditions [3][31] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that sales related to the "old-for-new" policy exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating a significant consumer market impact [3][32] Group 4 - The report suggests that the bond market may present some short-term trading opportunities, especially following the relaxation of redemption fees for bond funds [4][35] - It is noted that the overall recovery space for bonds may be limited, and a quick trading strategy may be more favorable [4][37] - For long-term bullish positioning, patience is advised as the current market conditions are still considered relatively early in the cycle [4][37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the A-share market in 2026 will revolve around "structural transformation and confidence restoration," with a focus on technology investments and external demand recovery [3][4] - The report emphasizes a "systematic slow bull" market phase, suggesting a gradual upward trend in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to oscillate between the high point of February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of 5178-2440 [9] - Investment strategies include focusing on four main lines: consumer services, sectors with growth potential like automotive and pharmaceuticals, traditional industries, and dividend-paying stocks such as banks and transportation [9] Group 2 - Policy risks are highlighted, particularly the impact of new public fund regulations on asset allocation, which may lead to a reallocation of equity fund performance benchmarks in the second half of 2026 [10][12] - Geopolitical risks are identified, with potential impacts from U.S. actions in Venezuela and Japan's political stance affecting market sentiment and inflation expectations [13][14] - Other risks include the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, domestic economic recovery, and the performance of U.S. tech stocks, all of which could influence market dynamics in the second half of 2026 [15][17][20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price changes in various metals, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide showing substantial year-to-date increases of 58.06% and 58.47% respectively [3] - Copper prices have risen by 33.74% year-to-date, while gold has increased by 57.24% despite a recent daily decline [3] - The report indicates a general upward trend in metal prices, with notable increases in silver (128.57% year-to-date) and white tungsten concentrate (217.83% year-to-date) [3] Price Changes Summary - Lithium Carbonate: Latest price at 119,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.45%, year-to-date change of 58.06% [3] - Lithium Hydroxide: Latest price at 110,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.30%, year-to-date change of 58.47% [3] - Copper: Latest price at 99,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 1.31%, year-to-date change of 33.74% [3] - Gold: Latest price at 971.7 CNY/gram, daily change of -1.13%, year-to-date change of 57.24% [3] - Electrolytic Nickel: Latest price at 138,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 3.29%, year-to-date change of 10.05% [3] - Aluminum: Latest price at 23,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 1.58%, year-to-date change of 13.79% [3] - Lead: Latest price at 17,000 CNY/ton, daily change of -1.26%, year-to-date change of 3.10% [3] - Zinc: Latest price at 23,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.34%, year-to-date change of -9.71% [3] - Tin: Latest price at 326,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.51%, year-to-date change of 32.66% [3] - Silver: Latest price at 17.1 CNY/gram, daily change of -5.88%, year-to-date change of 128.57% [3] - Antimony: Latest price at 162,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of 15.67% [3] - Molybdenum: Latest price at 455,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 2.02%, year-to-date change of -0.98% [3] - Titanium Sponge: Latest price at 50,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of 2.04% [3] - White Tungsten Concentrate: Latest price at 455,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of 217.83% [3] - Magnesium: Latest price at 17,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of -3.64% [3] - Neodymium Praseodymium Oxide: Latest price at 608,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of 50.93% [3] - Metal Silicon: Latest price at 12,000 CNY/ton, daily change of 0.00%, year-to-date change of -17.47% [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading integrated logistics service provider in air transportation, benefiting from the booming cross-border e-commerce market [1][2]. - The air freight business shows significant profit elasticity, primarily driven by demand from developed economies and cross-border e-commerce [2][3]. - The company has a diversified business model with three main segments: air freight services, integrated logistics solutions, and air cargo station services, with air freight being the most profitable [1][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the only flag carrier cargo airline in China, with a stable and diversified shareholder structure, primarily controlled by state-owned enterprises [1][14]. - Its main operations are based in Shanghai, and it has expanded its business through strategic partnerships and investments [13][14]. Air Freight Market - The air freight market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, which is expected to drive up air freight rates [2]. - Demand is closely linked to economic growth in developed markets, with cross-border e-commerce being a key growth driver [2][49]. - Supply constraints are evident, with limited capacity in both freighter and passenger aircraft [2][49]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 229.5 billion, 249.2 billion, and 268.9 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% [4][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 25.6 billion, 27.1 billion, and 29.0 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 31%, 6%, and 7% [4][7]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 28x, 27x, and 25x for the respective years [4]. Business Segments - The air freight segment contributes significantly to the company's gross profit, with full freighter operations showing high elasticity [1][27]. - The integrated logistics solutions segment is expanding, catering to high-end product logistics needs, and is expected to benefit from the growth in cross-border e-commerce [1][3]. - The air cargo station services are also growing steadily, with a projected gross margin improvement [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for air freight driven by cross-border e-commerce, which is expected to grow significantly in the coming years [57][58]. - The report highlights that 80% of cross-border e-commerce goods are transported by air, indicating a strong market potential for the company [57].

Group 1: PMI and Economic Activity - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December is 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[1] - The production index for December is 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity[2] - The composite PMI output index is 50.7%, reflecting overall economic activity improvement compared to the previous month[7] Group 2: Demand and Orders - The new orders index for December is 50.8%, rising 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved market demand in manufacturing[3] - The production expectation index for manufacturing is 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, showing increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market development[2] - The new export orders index is 49%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, suggesting stable development in manufacturing exports[3] Group 3: Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in price increases for raw materials[4] - The factory price index is 48.9%, up 0.7 percentage points, marking a second consecutive month of increase in finished product prices[4] - Price trends are diverging, with high-energy-consuming industries experiencing a decline in purchasing prices, while equipment and high-tech manufacturing maintain a faster price increase[4] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating improvement in the non-manufacturing sector[7] - The construction industry business activity index is 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, reflecting a return to expansion in the construction sector[7]

Core Insights - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, marks a transition from preparation to implementation, with significant policy benefits expected in 2026, which is seen as a historic investment opportunity [1][2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port theme received a score of 61.25 based on eight dimensions, with 23 beneficiary stocks selected to form the Hainan Free Trade Port stock pool, which has outperformed the Wind All A index by 17.8% since the end of 2024 [4][3] Policy Foundation - The Hainan Free Trade Port is built on the "One Law and Three Core" principles, including "one line open, two lines controlled, and free flow within the island," which aims to enhance economic dynamism through a policy framework of "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems" [2][13] - The "zero tariff" policy has shifted from a positive list to a negative list management approach, expanding the range of goods eligible for zero tariffs [16] Investment Opportunities in Core Industries - The free flow of production factors is expected to reshape Hainan's industrial structure, with tourism, cross-border logistics and finance, and new productive forces in commercial aerospace and deep-sea economy identified as the primary beneficiaries of policy dividends [3][18] - The tourism sector is transitioning from "duty-free on departure" to a "whole island consumption" model, enhancing the attractiveness of Hainan for both domestic and international consumers [21][19] - Cross-border logistics and finance are positioned to benefit from higher levels of openness, with Hainan becoming a hub for offshore trade and digital trade [30][32] - New productive forces are expected to thrive in Hainan's unique geographical and policy environment, particularly in commercial aerospace and deep-sea technology [38][40] Hainan Free Trade Port Theme Evaluation - The theme evaluation score of 61.25 reflects high scores in policy effectiveness, support intensity, and industry coverage, indicating a favorable investment environment [45][46] - The evaluation criteria include market capitalization, policy effectiveness, support intensity, industry coverage, valuation levels, trading congestion, performance realization capability, and future growth potential [46][47] Hainan Free Trade Port Stock Pool - The stock pool is constructed based on three dimensions: tourism, cross-border logistics, and new productive forces, providing a selection of stocks that could benefit from the Hainan Free Trade Port policies [48][49] - Specific sectors within the stock pool include duty-free retail, healthcare tourism, and experiential cultural tourism, which are expected to see significant growth [22][23][26] Hainan Free Trade Port Index - The Hainan Free Trade Port Index, based on the selected stocks, has shown a significant increase of 43.02% from December 31, 2024, to December 26, 2025, outperforming the Wind All A index by 17.8% [54][55]

Market Overview - On December 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.26%, the STAR Market 50 increased by 1.01%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.04%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on December 30 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+2.63%), Automotive (+1.35%), Nonferrous Metals (+1.31%), Machinery Equipment (+1.29%), and Comprehensive (+1.01%). The worst-performing sectors were Retail (-1.56%), Real Estate (-1.22%), Utilities (-1.14%), Social Services (-1.13%), and Construction Decoration (-1.11%) [4][5] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on December 30 was 21,615 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.845 billion HKD from southbound funds [4][5] Important Recommendations - The report recommends Ximai Food (002956) as the only listed company in China with a complete oat industry chain, which is expected to see revenue growth from new channels and products, benefiting from oat cost advantages [6] - The company is projected to have revenue of 2,278.08 million yuan in 2025, growing to 3,193.94 million yuan by 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 20.14% in 2025, 18.57% in 2026, and 18.24% in 2027 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 181.29 million yuan in 2025, increasing to 317.13 million yuan by 2027, with growth rates of 36.11%, 34.56%, and 30.01% respectively [6] Key Insights - The strategy report indicates that after a week of volume contraction in the Shanghai Composite, there is a higher likelihood of continued upward movement, while a month later, a correction is more probable [7][8] - The report highlights that a volume contraction during an upward trend may indicate optimistic market expectations, leading to limited selling pressure and potential short-term price increases [8] - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to experience high demand driven by energy storage, overseas power batteries, and solid-state batteries, with a positive outlook for 2026 [10]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a structural transformation in the capital market, focusing on rebuilding confidence and addressing external demand pessimism [3][4] - The investment logic suggests a shift from cyclical growth to cyclical value, with a resilient cycle expected in 2026, highlighting the value attributes of leading companies [9] - Key assumptions include a gradual decrease in the breeding sow inventory and proactive capacity control by pig companies, which may lead to reduced supply pressure and potential price recovery for pigs in 2026 [8] Group 2 - The report identifies specific companies to focus on, such as leading low-cost and high-certainty firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as high-growth smaller pig companies [7] - The report outlines potential risks, including the possibility of breeding sow inventory not decreasing as expected, which could lead to an oversupply of pigs and downward pressure on prices [8] - The report also discusses the beef market, indicating that if the import impact continues, it could lead to downward pressure on beef prices, affecting the profitability of beef companies [16][24] Group 3 - In the poultry sector, the report highlights that the yellow chicken market may see price increases if breeding stocks continue to decline, while the white chicken market is expected to recover as macroeconomic activities improve [25][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand in the poultry market, noting that weak demand could lead to price declines and pressure on company performance [27][32] - The report suggests that the animal health sector will benefit from the recovery of livestock profitability, with a focus on companies that have strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines [33][36] Group 4 - The grain sector is expected to see upward price trends due to adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, with a focus on companies involved in seed production and transgenic varieties [40][41] - The report warns of potential risks in the seed industry, including weak demand for new varieties, which could lead to price declines and increased pressure on seed companies [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policies regarding the commercialization of new seed varieties, as delays could impact market expectations [46][48] Group 5 - The report provides a risk assessment for recommended stocks, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, indicating potential risks related to pig output and price declines [50][56] - The report emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of key indicators, such as breeding sow inventory and market prices, to assess the performance of the companies in the livestock sector [56]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Smoore International (06969) is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The report highlights the gradual improvement in electronic cigarette regulations, emphasizing the bottom value of Smoore International as a compliant market leader poised to benefit from the changing supply landscape [2][3] - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for Smoore International, projecting revenues of HK$141.32 billion, HK$163.76 billion, and HK$195.88 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +19.78%, +15.88%, and +19.62% [11] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory developments include a comprehensive crackdown on illegal electronic cigarette activities, with the government emphasizing the need for stricter oversight and compliance in production and sales [2] - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has initiated measures to curb excessive competition and prevent overcapacity in the electronic cigarette industry [2] Market Performance - British American Tobacco's Hilo brand is expected to see positive growth, with new product launches in various countries contributing to revenue increases [3] - The report notes a recovery in the vaping segment, with improved sales for the Vuse brand in the U.S. due to enforcement actions against illegal products [4] Financial Highlights - Smoore International executed significant share buybacks totaling approximately HK$1.99 billion, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth prospects [5] - The forecasted net profit for Smoore International is projected to be HK$9.13 billion, HK$18.46 billion, and HK$26.75 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with respective growth rates of -29.94%, +102.23%, and +44.87% [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of December and looking forward to January, investors' judgments on the future bond market trend are relatively concentrated: they maintain a preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and adopt a defensive approach overall. The intensity and rhythm of fiscal policy and the supply pressure of government bonds have become the core concerns of investors [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of December, there are five mainstream expectations for the January bond market: investors' expectations for the upper and lower limits of long - term Treasury yields are neutral, showing a range - bound state; "Short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the mainstream expectation for the overall bond market trend; in bond market operations, the mainstream views are to hold cash and wait or keep positions basically stable; fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance are the most concerned core issues, and monetary policy and the capital market remain key concerns; investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. 1 - month Bond Market Outlook - **Survey Background**: A bond market questionnaire was released on December 26, 2025, and 123 valid questionnaires were received by 8:00 on December 29, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - **Long - term Treasury Yield Expectations** - **10 - year Treasury (250016)**: 50% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive) range, and 56% think the upper limit will fall in the 1.85% - 1.90% range. Current investors' expectations for the rise of the 10 - year Treasury interest rate have gradually increased compared with the November survey results [12][13]. - **30 - year Treasury (250006)**: 37% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive) range, and 44% think the upper limit will fall in the 2.25% - 2.30% range. Since December, the 30 - year Treasury yield has shown an overall oscillating trend, and investors expect it to oscillate downward in the next month [14]. - **Expectations for Monetary Policy** - **2026 Policy Adjustments**: 67% of investors think there will be one reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026, and 69% think there will be one interest rate cut [18]. - **Q1 2026 Policy**: 68% of investors think there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q1 2026, but opinions on whether to cut interest rates vary, showing an overall expectation of "biased towards easing, but the path is undetermined" [20]. - **Market Buying Power after New Year**: 45% of investors think the bond market's major logic will remain unchanged after the New Year, and the buying power will remain weak. The overall expectation of the bond market's capital situation after the New Year is "cautious overall, with structural differences" [23]. - **January Bond Market Trends**: Investors do not have a strong consensus on a single direction for the January bond market. The expectation shows a pattern of "cautiously optimistic, structure - dominated", and "short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the most mainstream market expectation [25]. - **Current Bond Market Operations**: In December, most investors were neutral in actual operations. Holding cash and waiting to add positions after a callback and keeping positions basically stable were still the mainstream views. The proportion of those who could start adding positions decreased slightly, and the proportion of those who reduced duration to control risks increased [27]. - **January Bond Market Pricing Logic**: Fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance have become the most concerned core issues, with the proportion rising from 14% in the November survey to 27%. The focus of bond market investors has shifted to "fiscal policy" [28]. - **Preferred Bond Types in January**: Investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased, and their preference for interbank certificates of deposit has also rebounded. The preference for ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds and secondary capital bonds has decreased, indicating that investors may pay more attention to liquidity protection and short - term certainty [32].