证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 10 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 10 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜】宏观专题研究："对等关税"未来如何演绎——20250408 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】徐工机械（000425）公司点评：拟 18-36 亿元回购股份彰显信心，新徐工迈 向全球工程机械龙头——20250408 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：4 月 9 日上证指数上涨 1.31%，沪深 300 上涨 0.99%，科创 50 上涨 4.31%，中证 1000 上涨 2.21%，创业板 指上涨 0.98%，恒生指数上涨 0.68%。 ❑ 行业：4 月 9 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+6.27%)、商贸零售（+5.18%)、房地产（+4.4%)、计算机 （+3.87%)、社会服务（+3.58%)，表现最差的行业分别是银行（-0.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.958 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 23.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, an increase of 16.62% year-on-year [1] - The company's banking IT solutions faced significant pressure due to reduced technology investments in the banking sector, leading to a 25.78% year-on-year decline in revenue for this segment [2] - Internal management improvements have led to a notable increase in profit margins, with a comprehensive gross margin of 29.02%, up 3.08 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is actively optimizing its business matrix and expanding its product lines, including significant projects in non-banking IT services and overseas markets [4] - The company is embracing generative AI technology, establishing a comprehensive service system to support AI applications in banking, which is expected to drive future growth [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.592 billion, 5.234 billion, and 5.563 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 16.03%, 13.97%, and 6.29% respectively [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.958 billion yuan, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, reflecting a 16.62% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved to 29.02%, with operating costs decreasing by 27.10% year-on-year [3] Business Development - The company is expanding its service offerings beyond banking IT, securing contracts worth nearly 130 million yuan in national projects and entering the securities market [4] - The overseas business has seen new orders close to 100 million yuan, marking a significant achievement in international expansion [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth, with projections indicating a return to positive growth rates starting in 2025 [6] - The focus on generative AI is expected to create new growth avenues, enhancing the company's competitive position in the financial technology sector [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 1.769 billion yuan, down 10.82% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 415 million yuan [1] - The company's digital government and enterprise digitalization businesses are experiencing rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 31.07% in this segment [2] - The introduction of the enterprise-level AI model integrated machine is expected to enhance collaboration and drive growth in related businesses in 2025 [2] - The company plans to fully embrace AI technology in 2025, integrating it across various operational aspects to improve efficiency and service capabilities [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.016 billion, 2.307 billion, and 2.610 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of -100 million, 2 million, and 75 million yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 872 million yuan, a decrease of 29.31% year-on-year, and a net loss of 173 million yuan [1] - The revenue breakdown shows public safety big data at 672 million yuan, electronic data forensics at 711 million yuan, digital government and enterprise digitalization at 278 million yuan, and new network space security at 107 million yuan, with respective year-on-year changes [2] Business Development - The launch of the AI model integrated machine aims to meet the demand for private deployment of large models in government and enterprise sectors, enhancing the company's digital solutions [2] - The company is focusing on integrating AI technology into research, marketing, and customer service to drive efficiency and cost reduction [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in downstream demand, with long-term growth potential from new business segments and synergies with Guotou Group [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 1006% to 1.201 billion [1] - The significant growth in Q1 2025 is attributed to improved production efficiency and revenue from shipbuilding products, as well as better performance from joint ventures [1] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as ship replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, leading to improved profitability for shipyards [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders between 1.7 billion and 2 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1005.77% to 1200.91% [1] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.65 billion and 1.95 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 554.01% to 672.92% [1] Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is seeing a mixed demand with a 61% year-on-year decline in new orders from January to March 2025, while container ship orders increased by 238% [2] - The new ship price index has shown a slight decrease of 0.05% week-on-week but a year-on-year increase of 2.04%, indicating a historical peak since 2021 [2] - Supply constraints and inflationary pressures are expected to drive ship prices higher [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025 to 2027 are approximately 850 million, 1.616 billion, and 2.410 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 125%, 90%, and 49% [4] - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 35, 19, and 12, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 1.6, 1.5, and 1.3 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is focusing on store type adjustments and product structure optimization, leading to stabilization in same-store sales. In 2024, the comparable store sales are expected to decline by 0.68%, with regional performances varying: East China +0.1%, South China +11.7%, and Central China -0.6% [2] - The collaboration with Bandai is expected to enhance profit margins, with the first Gundam base opening in December 2024 and additional model stores expected to follow, contributing positively to revenue [2] - The company is projected to see revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 3.7 billion, 3.9 billion, and 4.2 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 6%, 6%, and 8%. Net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 137 million, 168 million, and 199 million yuan, indicating growth rates of 29%, 23%, and 18% respectively [2] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is forecasted at 3.47 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.06%. The net profit is expected to be 106.41 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.61% [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.99 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.83 [4] - The company aims to improve store efficiency through targeted adjustments, with a total of 475 stores by the end of 2024, including 62 new openings [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 2025, with estimates ranging from 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 149% to 199% [2] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, which are collectively enhancing industry profitability [3][4] - The company has a strong order backlog, with 333 vessels and a total weight of 25.63 million deadweight tons, valued at 225 billion yuan, indicating a robust market position [2] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated to be 3.82 billion, 7.60 billion, and 10.61 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 99%, and 40% [5] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 74.84 billion yuan in 2023 to 105.06 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 43 in 2023 to 12 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation over time [6] Industry Insights - The shipbuilding industry is witnessing a mixed demand scenario, with container ship orders increasing by 238% year-on-year, while orders for other types of vessels have seen significant declines [3] - The new ship price index has shown a historical peak, with a 2.04% year-on-year increase, suggesting a favorable pricing environment for shipbuilders [3][4] - The consolidation of shipbuilding assets within the group is expected to enhance operational efficiency and improve competitive dynamics in the industry [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year growth in net profit for Q1 2025, estimated between 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, representing a growth of approximately 149% to 199% [2] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, which are collectively enhancing industry profitability [3][4] - The company has a strong order backlog with 333 vessels totaling 2,250 billion yuan, indicating a robust demand for various types of ships [2] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is approximately 3.8 billion, 7.6 billion, and 10.6 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 29%, 99%, and 40% respectively [6] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 74.839 billion yuan in 2023 to 105.063 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.66 yuan in 2023 to 2.37 yuan in 2026 [6] Industry Insights - The shipbuilding industry is witnessing a mixed demand scenario, with new orders for container ships increasing by 238% year-on-year, while orders for other types of vessels have seen significant declines [3] - The new ship price index has shown a historical peak, indicating potential for continued price increases driven by supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - The consolidation of shipbuilding assets within the group is expected to enhance operational efficiency and improve competitive positioning in the market [4]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 09 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 09 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商化工 李佳骏】呈和科技（688625）公司更新：关税政策下受益标的，国产成核剂龙头乘势而上——20250407 重要观点 【浙商固收 覃汉/郑莎】债券市场专题研究：国债期货连续跳空缺口是否会回补？——20250407 2.1 【浙商化工 李佳骏】呈和科技（688625）公司更新：关税政策下受益标的，国产成核剂龙头乘 势而上——20250407 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：周二上证指数上涨 1.6%，沪深 300 上涨 1.7%，科创 50 上涨 1.7%，中证 1000 上涨 0.6%，创业板指上涨 1.8%， 恒生指数上涨 1.5%。 行业：周二表现最好的行业分别是农林牧渔（+7.8%)、商贸零售（+3.4%)、食品饮料（+3.4%)、煤炭（+3.3%)、 美 ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In March, China's official foreign exchange reserves reached $32,406.65 billion, an increase of $13.441 billion month-on-month, primarily driven by exchange rate factors[1] - The positive contribution from exchange rates was significant, with the dollar index declining by 3.13% from the end of February, impacting reserves positively by approximately $60.625 billion[2] - The valuation effect negatively impacted reserves by about $4.73 billion due to falling European bond prices, leading to a net effect of approximately $55.901 billion on reserves[2] Group 2: Trade Environment and Currency Fluctuations - The short-term trade environment is identified as a core factor influencing exchange rates, with expectations of increased two-way volatility[3] - If trade tensions escalate with other major countries, they may devalue their currencies against the dollar, which could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB[3] - Conversely, if major countries make concessions in trade negotiations, external pressures on China may increase, expanding the depreciation space for the RMB[3] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of the end of March, gold reserves stood at 7.37 million ounces, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases[4] - Gold reserves now account for 6.4% of total foreign exchange reserves, with expectations for further increases in this ratio[4] - Short-term outlook suggests a potential slight decline in gold prices due to unmet U.S. gold tariff expectations, but a long-term forecast predicts new highs by 2025 driven by central bank purchases[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has announced a share buyback plan of RMB 1.8-3.6 billion, reflecting confidence in its development and recognition of its own value [2] - The construction machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit [3][4] - The company is positioned to become a global leader in the engineering machinery sector, currently ranked fourth globally and first in China [4] - The company's asset quality has improved, and its profitability is notable, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 9% for Q3 2024 [5] - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% for net profit from 2023 to 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Share Buyback and Confidence - The company plans to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding RMB 13 per share, totaling between RMB 1.8 billion and RMB 3.6 billion, which will account for approximately 1.17%-2.34% of its total share capital [2] Industry Recovery - Domestic excavator sales in March reached 19,517 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%, while total sales for the first quarter were 36,562 units, up 38% year-on-year [3] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in March increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the domestic market [4] Company Positioning and Product Range - The company maintains a comprehensive product range and is expected to gradually enter the global top three in the engineering machinery sector [4] - The company leads in various categories, including cranes and concrete machinery, and ranks sixth globally in excavators [4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s financing lease obligations decreased by 18% year-on-year, and its net profit margin has shown consistent improvement [5] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 909 billion, RMB 1,047 billion, and RMB 1,279 billion, with net profits expected to be RMB 62 billion, RMB 78 billion, and RMB 97 billion respectively [6]