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开润股份:点评报告业绩预期亮丽,服装代工持续放量且效率爬坡-20250505
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 15:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to be strong, with significant contributions from the consolidation of Jia Le. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.24 billion yuan (up 36.6% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.381 billion yuan (up 229.5% year-on-year) [1][5] - The company's manufacturing segment saw revenue growth driven by acquisitions and improved production efficiency. In 2024, the manufacturing revenue reached 3.534 billion yuan (up 44.6% year-on-year), with notable growth in apparel manufacturing [2] - The brand management segment is actively expanding new channels, with a revenue of 0.658 billion yuan in 2024 (up 5.1% year-on-year). The collaboration with Xiaomi has deepened, launching multiple new products [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.234 billion yuan (up 35.6% year-on-year) and a net profit of 0.085 billion yuan (up 20.1% year-on-year) [1] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 9.0% (up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year) [4] Manufacturing Segment - The manufacturing revenue for 2024 was 3.534 billion yuan, with apparel manufacturing revenue growing by 146.4% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for manufacturing in 2024 was 22.55%, with a decline attributed to the consolidation of Jia Le [2] Brand Management - The brand management revenue for 2024 was 0.658 billion yuan, with distribution revenue increasing by 20.8% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for brand management was 25.52%, reflecting adjustments in product and channel structure [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.344 billion yuan, 6.222 billion yuan, and 7.190 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 16%, and 16% [5][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 0.384 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 0.7% [5][11]
开润股份(300577):点评报告:业绩预期亮丽,服装代工持续放量且效率爬坡
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 13:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to be strong, with significant contributions from the consolidation of Jia Le [5] - The garment manufacturing segment is experiencing revenue growth due to acquisitions and improved production efficiency [2] - The brand management segment is actively expanding new channels, with Xiaomi continuing to launch new products [3] - The company is effectively controlling expenses, with one-time investment gains from Jia Le enhancing profits [4] - Profitability is projected to improve as overseas production efficiency increases, with sustained revenue growth anticipated from 2025 to 2027 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.24 billion yuan (up 36.6% year-on-year) and a net profit of 0.381 billion yuan (up 229.5% year-on-year) [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.234 billion yuan (up 35.6% year-on-year) and net profit was 0.085 billion yuan (up 20.1% year-on-year) [1] Manufacturing Segment - In 2024, the garment manufacturing revenue reached 3.534 billion yuan (up 44.6% year-on-year), with bag manufacturing revenue at 2.372 billion yuan (up 20.3% year-on-year) and garment manufacturing revenue at 1.162 billion yuan (up 146.4% year-on-year) [2] - The gross margin for garment manufacturing was 22.55% (down 1.33 percentage points year-on-year), primarily due to the impact of Jia Le's consolidation [2] Brand Management - Brand management revenue in 2024 was 0.658 billion yuan (up 5.1% year-on-year), with distribution revenue at 0.498 billion yuan (up 20.8% year-on-year) and online revenue at 0.160 billion yuan (down 25.2% year-on-year) [3] - The gross margin for brand management was 25.52% (down 1.03 percentage points year-on-year) [3] Profitability and Forecast - The net profit margin for 2024 was 9.0% (up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year) [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 5.344 billion yuan, 6.222 billion yuan, and 7.190 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 16%, and 16% [5] - Expected net profit for 2025 to 2027 is 0.384 billion yuan, 0.480 billion yuan, and 0.590 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1%, 25%, and 23% respectively [5]
债券市场专题研究:5月或集中定价基本面,关注稳健类转债
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 11:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the next month or so, the market may focus more on fundamentals and likely continue to show defensive characteristics. It is recommended to increase exposure to convertible bonds that benefit from domestic demand stimulus, are insensitive to external demand, have technological growth potential, and have relatively stable fundamentals [1][2]. - The reasons for the market's short - term preference for fundamentals include the upcoming implementation of the new Nine - Point Regulations based on 2024 financial reports, potential rating downgrades of convertible bonds after annual report disclosures, and the impact of overseas tariff risks on domestic risk appetite and fundamentals. However, the risk of a sharp decline in the equity market in the short term is limited, and the upward repair trend may continue [2]. - Short - term investors are advised to focus on high - grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds, which may benefit from incremental capital inflows. Convertible bonds related to consumer electronics, home appliances, and home furnishings that benefit from consumption subsidies can also be appropriately considered. For new - quality productivity - related convertible bonds, high - priced targets can be appropriately liquidated for profits, and those that have been fully adjusted in the short term can be bought at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Market Observation - In the past week (April 28 - April 30), most convertible bond indices declined, except for the optional consumer industry index of convertible bonds, bonds rated AA - and below, the high - price index of convertible bonds, and the small - cap convertible bond index, which rose. In terms of valuation, both bond - like and equity - like valuations were compressed. The median price of the convertible bond market slightly decreased to 119.23 yuan, at the 74.65% level since 2017 [1]. 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - Provided the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods, such as the WanDe Convertible Bond Energy Index, which declined by 0.72% in the past week, - 0.04% in the past two weeks, - 1.43% since March, - 1.91% in the past month, - 1.43% in the past two months, increased by 3.20% in the past six months, and 2.51% in the past year [11]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Securities - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only mentioned figures related to the top and bottom five gainers and losers of individual bonds and their underlying stocks in the past week [16][23]. 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only mentioned figures related to the valuation trends of bond - like, balanced, and equity - like convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities [24][26]. 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only mentioned figures related to the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds with different parities, the proportion trends of high - price and low - price bonds, the proportion trend of bonds below the bond floor, and the median price trend of the convertible bond market [33][35].
可转债复盘系列:转债复盘2021:牛市延续,超额显著
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 11:17
证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期:2025 年 05 月 05 日 转债复盘 2021:牛市延续,超额显著 ——可转债复盘系列 核心观点 本报告深度复盘 2021 年可转债市场,全面剖析其市场表现、供需结构、信用风险等关 键要素,为投资者提供精准参考。 ❑ 牛市延续,转债超额显著 2021 年,可转债市场延续牛市行情,中证转债指数全年涨幅超 17%,与中证 1000 等小盘指数走势较为契合,有效满足了固收 + 投资者的配置需求。市场规模在大 盘银行转债的推动下成功突破 7000 亿元。从供需结构看,银行板块供给旺盛,发 行额超 600 亿元,推动市场规模提升,且全年发行节奏平稳。信用风险主要集中 在上半年,整体处于可控范围。该年度市场可划分为三个阶段:一是年初低价转 债修复,二季度周期和成长转债开启上涨通道;二是三季度估值和正股双轮驱动, 转债市场表现强劲;三是四季度估值再度提升,行业轮动速度加快。 ❑ 风险提示: 分析师:王明路 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1)经济基本面改善持续性不足; 2)债市超 ...
债市策略思考:五一假期要闻汇总及债市前瞻
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 09:54
Core Insights - The upcoming macro environment for the bond market may be more favorable, potentially breaking the previous price range of sideways movement, with an increased likelihood of long-term government bond yields breaking downward [1][4][33] Group 1: Global Market Overview - During the May Day holiday, global stock markets performed notably well, with technology stocks leading the gains in both Hong Kong and the US markets, which in turn boosted European and other Asian stock markets [1][11] - The bond market showed divergence, with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rising by 23 basis points and 16 basis points respectively, while Japanese bond yields decreased and German bond yields remained stable [1][11] - The US dollar index rebounded, appreciating against major currencies like the yen, euro, and pound, but depreciated against the offshore yuan [1][11] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - In April, the US PCE index grew by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations, while core PCE growth was 2.6%, indicating a further cooling of core inflation [2][12] - The US labor market remains resilient, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, surpassing expectations of 130,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [2][16] - The first quarter GDP for 2025 showed a contraction of -0.3%, significantly below the expected -0.2%, marking the lowest growth since Q1 2022 [2][21] Group 3: Domestic Bond Market Outlook - The probability of long-term government bond yields breaking downward is expected to increase, as the current tightening of funds is less likely, and any degree of easing would be viewed positively for the bond market [4][29][33] - The manufacturing PMI in China fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0% in April, indicating short-term economic pressure, but the long-term positive fundamentals are expected to remain intact despite trade frictions [4][29] - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are likely to be complex, but the short-term impact on the bond market is expected to be more positive than negative [4][32][33]
英派斯(002899):点评报告:24年利润高增,看好未来内需市场及健身器材智能化转型
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 07:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, and a net profit of 109 million yuan, up 23.8% [2][3] - The company is focusing on both international market dynamics and expanding its domestic market presence, with significant growth potential in China's fitness equipment market [4] - The company is actively pursuing a smart transformation by integrating AI technology into its product offerings, which includes 28 series of fitness equipment [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 35.6%, and a net profit of 109 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 23.8% [2][3] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 291 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with a net profit of 14 million yuan, up 2.19% [2] Business Growth - The traditional business segment is experiencing steady growth, with commercial products accounting for 87.7% of revenue and overseas sales making up 78.7% [3] - The company is enhancing its OEM/ODM product offerings and has successfully launched over 10 new products [3] Market Potential - The domestic fitness market is expected to grow significantly, with China's fitness penetration rate at 5.37% as of 2023, compared to higher rates in the US, UK, and Germany [4] - The company aims to mitigate risks associated with international markets by tapping into the vast potential of the domestic market [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is deepening its application of AI technology to create smart fitness solutions, positioning itself for future growth in the AI glasses sector [5] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027 to be 1.31 billion, 1.64 billion, and 1.89 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 103 million, 144 million, and 181 million yuan [6][8]
工商银行(601398):核心营收改善
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 06:08
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 国有大型银行Ⅱ 工商银行(601398) 报告日期:2025 年 05 月 05 日 核心营收改善 ——工商银行 2025 年一季报点评 投资要点 ❑ 工商银行 25Q1 核心营收降幅收窄,不良生成平稳。 ❑ 数据概览 工商银行 2025Q1 营收同比下降 3.2%,降幅较 24A 扩大 0.7pc;利润同比下降 4.0%,较 24A 由增转减。2025Q1 末不良率 1.33%,较 24A 末下降 1bp;2025Q1 末拨备覆盖率 216%,较 24A 末上升 1pc。 ❑ 核心营收改善 工商银行 2025Q1 营收同比下降 3.2%,降幅较 24A 扩大 0.7pc;利润同比下降 4.0%,较 24A 由增转减。其中,核心营收(中收+利息净收入)同比下降 2.5%, 降幅较 24A 改善 1.1pc,边际改善。驱动因素来看,主要得益于息差拖累改善, 中收增速修复。①息差,25Q1 日均息差环比 24A 下降 9bp,同比 24Q1 下降 15bp,同比降幅较24A收敛4bp;②中收,25Q1中收同比微降1.2%,降幅较24A 的 8.3%显著收敛。 ❑ 息差边际下行 预计 ...
东鹏饮料(605499):业绩持续高增,补水啦动力强劲
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 06:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its long-term growth potential [6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated sustained high growth in its performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with a clear platform company logic and excellent operational management [1][6]. - The energy drink segment is in an upward trend, with strong growth expected from its products "Bup Shui La" and "Guo Zhi Cha" [1][6]. - The company is actively expanding its distribution network and enhancing single-point production capabilities, which supports future growth [1][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.848 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.23%, and a net profit of 980 million yuan, up 47.62% [2]. - The energy drink segment generated revenue of 3.901 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 25.71%, accounting for 80.50% of total revenue [3]. - The electrolyte drink segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 570 million yuan, a staggering increase of 261.46% year-on-year [3]. Channel and Regional Performance - Revenue growth was strong across major channels, with sales from distribution, key accounts, and online channels reaching 4.283 billion, 457 million, and 104 million yuan, respectively [4]. - The company's home region of Guangdong showed solid revenue growth of 21.58%, while other regions like East China and Southwest China experienced increases of 30.82% and 61.78%, respectively [4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 44.47%, an increase of 1.70 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The net profit margin improved to 20.21%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.15 percentage points [5]. - The company expects revenues to grow to 20.948 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 4.508 billion yuan, indicating strong growth rates of 32% and 36%, respectively [6][7].
五粮液(000858):2024、25Q1业绩点评:25Q1业绩略超预期,关注改革三重抓手
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 06:07
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 36.940 billion yuan, growing by 6.05%, with a net profit of 14.860 billion yuan, an increase of 5.80% year-on-year. The performance in 2024 met expectations, while Q1 2025 slightly exceeded expectations [10] - The company is focusing on three key reform initiatives: controlling volume and maintaining prices, establishing sales companies, and building platform companies. This strategy aims to streamline the relationship between volume and price, maintain distributor profits, reduce inventory, and enhance the C-end network system focused on direct sales and group purchases [10] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 5.13%, 5.43%, and 5.21% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 4.54%, 5.39%, and 5.43% respectively. The estimated EPS for these years are 8.58, 9.04, and 9.53 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.00X, 14.24X, and 13.50X, indicating a favorable valuation [11] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the revenue from other liquor products was 15.251 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 60.81% [2] - The company reported a gross margin of 77.05% in 2024, slightly up by 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 37.22%, down 0.63 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 77.74%, down 0.68 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 41.60%, down 0.41 percentage points year-on-year [5] Sales and Distribution - In 2024, the company’s distribution revenue was 48.738 billion yuan, a 5.99% increase year-on-year, while direct sales revenue was 34.389 billion yuan, up 12.89% year-on-year, with direct sales accounting for 41.37% of total revenue [3] - The company increased its number of distributors by 82 and added 124 exclusive stores in 2024, with a total of over 1,700 exclusive stores currently [3] Market Performance - Revenue from the eastern, southern, and northern regions in 2024 was 31.29 billion yuan, 39.336 billion yuan, and 12.501 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.75%, 12.65%, and a decline of 3.98% respectively [4] - The company has expanded into 20 new overseas markets in 2024 [4] Cash Flow and Liabilities - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 33.940 billion yuan, down 18.69% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a significant increase to 15.849 billion yuan, up 2970.31% year-on-year [5] - Contract liabilities increased by 4.826 billion yuan to 11.690 billion yuan in 2024, and by 5.119 billion yuan to 10.166 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [6] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio increased from 60% in 2023 to 70% in 2024 [6]
劲仔食品(003000):2024年年报、2025Q1业绩点评:收入保持稳健,经营质量优秀
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-05 04:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 2.412 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 291 million yuan, an increase of 39.01% year-on-year [2] - The company focuses on improving operational quality, with future growth expected from brand reinforcement of quail eggs, new product launches at Sam's Club, and the development of new product lines such as dried tofu [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.412 billion yuan, with a net profit of 291 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 261 million yuan [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%, but the net profit decreased by 8.21% to 68 million yuan [2] Product Performance - Fish products continue to grow rapidly, with revenue of 1.533 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.76% year-on-year, while quail egg product growth has slightly slowed [3] Channel Performance - Online channels experienced a decline of 6.15% in 2024, while offline channels grew by 22.58%, with direct sales channels seeing a significant increase of 46.35% [4] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 30.47%, an increase of 2.30 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 12.17%, up 1.90 percentage points year-on-year [5]