证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 11 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 11 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商中小盘 钟凯锋/宋伟/史凡可】民士达（833394）公司深度：国内芳纶纸龙头，把握变局期崛起机遇—— 20250410 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究：美元霸权角度再思考对等关税影响——20250409 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数上涨 1.2%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%，科创 50 上涨 1.1%，中证 1000 上涨 2.3%，创业板指上涨 2.3%，恒生指数上涨 2.1%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是商贸零售（+4.8%)、纺织服饰（+3.8%)、有色金属（+3.4%)、汽车（+3.2%)、 传媒（+3.2%)，表现最差的行业分别是煤炭（+0.1%)、公用事业（+0.2%)、农林牧渔（+0.5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.006 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.35%, and a net profit of 3.840 billion yuan, up 20.00% year-on-year. The proposed cash dividend of 2.684 billion yuan reflects a dividend payout ratio of 70%, significantly higher than the 43%/44% in 2022/2023 [1] - The growth in sales volume is primarily driven by an increase in new customers and the end of inventory destocking by existing clients. The company expects to sell 223 million pairs of sports shoes in 2024, a 17.53% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of approximately 107.4 yuan per pair, up 1.6% year-on-year [2] - The company is experiencing temporary fluctuations in gross margin due to the ramp-up of production efficiency in newly established factories. The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 26.8%, a 1.2 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 16.0% [3] - The company is expanding its production capacity with multiple new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which will enhance its ability to meet customer demand while also reducing procurement costs through local sourcing [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 27.629 billion yuan, 31.723 billion yuan, and 36.366 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.340 billion yuan, 4.988 billion yuan, and 5.724 billion yuan, indicating a stable growth trajectory [5]

Inflation Data - March CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.1%, slightly better than the previous value of -0.7% and in line with market expectations[2] - March PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded at -2.5%, slightly lower than the previous value of -2.2%[2] Price Movements - Food prices decreased by 1.4% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the CPI decline[4] - The price of wearable smart devices increased by 4.6% year-on-year, driven by advancements in high-tech industries[2] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in March, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in February[8] - Service prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year in March, contributing positively to the CPI[8] Commodity Prices - March Brent crude oil average price was $72.51 per barrel, down by $2.81 from the previous month[7] - Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 3.5% month-on-month, impacting CPI by approximately 0.12 percentage points[7] Economic Outlook - The government aims for a CPI increase of around 2% for 2025, indicating a shift towards balancing supply and demand rather than strict inflation control[8] - The report suggests that effective demand recovery has significant potential, with the economy still in the early stages of inflation bottoming out[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 5.9065 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 956.48 million yuan, up 24.80% year-on-year [1][6] - The phosphate chemical products segment continues to grow, with revenue from phosphate chemicals and phosphate rock mining reaching 4.988 billion yuan and 543 million yuan, accounting for 84.47% and 9.19% of total revenue, respectively [2][3] - The company has abundant phosphate resources, with total reserves of 35 million tons, ensuring stable future development [3] - The company announced a cash dividend of 12.00 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, amounting to approximately 646.4 million yuan, which is 67% of the net profit for the year [4] - A stock incentive plan is proposed for 2025, granting 9.309 million restricted shares to key personnel, aiming for revenue growth of at least 20% in 2025 and 30% in 2026 [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 6.936 billion yuan, 8.344 billion yuan, and 8.603 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.292 billion yuan, 1.503 billion yuan, and 1.600 billion yuan, respectively [6][12]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 10 日 3 月通胀：服务价格拉动核心 CPI，生产资料价格涨跌互现 2025 年 3 月 CPI 和 PPI 数据解读 核心观点 3 月 CPI 同比增速为-0.1%（前值-0.7%），基本符合市场预期（Wind 一致预期为 -0.1%），环比增速走低至-0.4%（前值为-0.2%），主要是季节性因子和国际油价波 动的影响。3 月 PPI 同比增速录得-2.5%（前值-2.2%），略低于市场预期（Wind 一致预期为-2.2%），主要受国际输入性因素影响和部分出口行业价格下行等影响。 我们认为，2025 年政府工作报告将 CPI 涨幅设定为 2%左右，更多表现为努力实 现的方向，而并非将物价涨幅控制在目标以下，当前通胀水平正处于筑底回升的 早期阶段，有效需求恢复的弹性空间较大。值得关注的是，人工智能、高性能大模 型等广泛应用，高技术产业发展对相关行业价格起到拉动作用，3 月可穿戴智能设 备制造价格同比上涨 4.6%。 大类资产方面，风险偏好或成为重要的影响因子。我们认为，未来其他国家对美 贸易谈判是我国内需政策的关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff trading is repetitive, and the future path is unclear. The uncertainty caused by tariff policies may continue to disrupt the global financial market. The trade negotiations between China and the US have many variables, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs may just be the start of future frictions and negotiations [1][2]. - Tariff trading should focus on response rather than prediction. Given the low visibility of Trump's policies, it is more cost - effective to avoid unpredictable disturbances and focus on more certain trading directions. In the domestic bond market, the direction of the market is unclear, but the certainty of betting on a bull - steepening of the interest rate curve is higher. In the equity market, large - cap stocks are more cost - effective than small - cap stocks, and there is a need to be vigilant about the US dollar liquidity crisis [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tariff trading is repetitive, and the future path is unclear - On the early morning of April 10, 2025, Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries while maintaining a 10% benchmark tariff rate, which caused significant fluctuations in the global financial market. The game between market expectations and reality is the main driver of financial asset price changes. For example, the US stock market had significant fluctuations around tariff expectations in the days around April 9 [11]. - The uncertainty caused by tariff policies may not subside. There are still many variables in the trade negotiations between China and the US. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs is only a start, and it is difficult to reach acceptable trade agreements within 90 days due to the wide - ranging impact of these tariffs [17][18]. 3.2 Tariff trading may focus on response rather than prediction - The low visibility of Trump's policies makes tariff prediction difficult, and the risk - return ratio of expected trading is not matched, with high trial - and - error costs. It is more advisable to focus on certain trading directions [19][20]. - In the domestic bond market, the central bank's control over the capital market has not fully relaxed, and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate breaking the previous high has raised expectations of monetary policy easing. The market direction is unclear, but the certainty of betting on a bull - steepening of the interest rate curve is higher [20][22]. - In the domestic equity market, the bottom is relatively firm. When the bond market is unclear, it is recommended to focus on large - cap stocks such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300, as they can control risks while pursuing returns. Small - cap stocks like the CSI 1000 have high risks and high returns and are more suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance [26]. - The SOFR - OIS spread has shown a slight upward trend recently. The risk of basis trading caused by the significant adjustment of US Treasury yields may be the main reason. If Trump's tariff policy lasts longer than expected, it may test the US dollar liquidity [30][31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 2.15 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 46%, which aligns with expectations [1] - Revenue for the year 2024 is projected to be 5.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, with a net profit of 2.06 billion, up 42% [1] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 7.07 billion, 8.71 billion, and 10.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 23%, and 20% [5] Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at 2.15 billion, a 46% increase year-on-year, which meets expectations [1] - The gross margin for 2024 is 82.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is 37.2%, down 4 percentage points [2] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.19 per share, with a payout ratio of 60% [1] Business Segmentation - The main brand, Kefu Mei, generated revenue of 4.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 63%, accounting for 82% of total revenue [3] - Online sales accounted for 72% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 70% [3] - The second brand, Keli Jin, saw revenue of 840 million, a 36% increase year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the collagen protein sector, with strong growth in its main brand and accelerating growth in its second brand [5] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market presence with significant online sales growth and expansion into new retail locations [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 房地产服务 物业公司价值修复空间打开 ——物业行业点评 1）中高端物业+AI 优化成本，长期打开利润修复空间 新房市场供给呈现"量缩质优"的趋势，政策端对"好房子"持续进行引导，改 善型住宅需求占比持续提升，有望为中高端物业带来发展机遇。中高端住宅的物 业费标准通常比普通住宅高两倍左右，物业公司营业成本中广义人工成本占比近 7 成，中高端物业单价高、人工成本占比高的特点为后续成本优化提供空间。AI 科技的应用能够助力物企优化成本，例如通过自动化管理停车、电梯等系统，减 少人工巡检和维修频率，降低维护和人员成本。我们认为，未来在 AI 科技赋能 下，物业公司有成本优化空间，有望逐步实现利润修复。 2）ROIC 分子和分母端均有优化空间 我们认为，由于物业公司轻资产、强现金流的属性，ROIC 和股息率双重指标可 以作为对比估值的主要判断依据。提升物业公司 ROIC 有两条思路：a）分子端 提升：①提升运营效率（例如科技应用降本增效）、②增加高利润率业务收入占 比（例如增加市场化定价的商办业务占比）、③增强定价权（例如提升物业费匹 配更好的服务）。b）分母端的提升，我们认为主要体现在 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 消费电子 消费电子 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 10 日 对等关税冲击造成短期波动，云开雾散仍是成长核心 ——消费电子之果链点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑 1.北美重要客户在 AI 需求的带动下，在同质化竞争激烈的环境下，对于外观辨识 度、散热的进化与迭代要求持续升级。 2.公司自身品类覆盖从玻璃到金属、到组装业务的持续延展，进而带动公司产品 ASP 总价值量提升，以及抗周期波动能力加强。 随着 2025 年 AI 智能手机以及 2026 年折叠屏产品的推出，iPhone 大部分零部件环 节有望实现量价齐升，以蓝思科技、领益智造为代表的核心供应商受益明确，而 近期对等关税贸易冲突的发生，令整个果链估值体系大幅下修并且市场认可度出 现波动，我们认为这种政治事件性冲击的影响是有时限的，而且本质并未改变果 链的成长逻辑。 ❑ 超预期逻辑 美国对等关税的推出，市场普遍认为非美生产的 iPhone 零部件企业均会面临严峻 的出口成本压力。 我们认为 （1）苹果过去几年对其供应链体系做了前瞻性的全球化布局和持续深入的多元化 改革，其核心供应商大多拥有稳健的全球供应链体系。截至目前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 22.8% for 2024, a significant increase of 6.8 percentage points compared to 2023 [5] - In 2024, the company's revenue is expected to grow by 8.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 6.2% [2][5] - The company's net interest margin has rebounded, reaching 1.86% in Q4 2024, up by 5 basis points from Q3 2024 [3][5] - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% at the end of Q4 2024, unchanged from the previous quarter [4][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 is forecasted at 66,631 million, reflecting an 8.2% increase year-on-year, while the net profit is expected to be 27,127 million, a 6.2% increase [6] - The revenue growth is attributed to a recovery in net interest margin and improved drag [2] Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 22.8%, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 3.85% as of April 9, 2025 [5] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76% as of Q4 2024, with a slight increase in retail loan non-performing rates [4] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 15 percentage points to 389% [4][5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a modest revenue growth trajectory, supported by sufficient bond floating profits [2] - Forecasted net profit growth for 2025-2027 is 6.61%, 6.81%, and 6.77% respectively [5]