- The report introduces a **market timing system** that uses the distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average of the WIND All A Index to determine market trends. The system identifies an uptrend when the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, with a significant distance threshold of 3%[2][6][11] - The **industry trend allocation model** is highlighted, which signals opportunities in specific sectors. For the medium term, the "distressed reversal expectation model" suggests focusing on innovative healthcare. The "TWO BETA model" continues to recommend the technology sector, particularly AI applications and commercial aerospace after adjustments. In the short term, the "earnings trend model" points to opportunities in computing power (e.g., Sci-Tech Chip ETF, code 588200) and energy storage batteries (e.g., Energy Storage Battery ETF, code 159566)[2][5][7] - The **position management model** is used to determine stock allocation levels. Based on the WIND All A Index's valuation and trend, the model recommends an 80% stock allocation for absolute return products[5][7] - The **valuation indicators** for the WIND All A Index are also discussed. The PE ratio is at the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, representing a medium level[5][7][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a recovery in demand due to a cold wave, which may stimulate heating needs and lead to increased procurement [7]. - The report highlights that the coal price is likely to stabilize and potentially increase in the latter part of January, driven by a combination of steady supply and moderate demand recovery [7]. - The investment strategy suggests positioning in coal stocks that have shown resilience and potential for growth, particularly those with strong dividend yields and low valuations [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,905.163 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,857.669 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their strong earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with recommendations to buy or hold based on their growth potential [5]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes fluctuations in coal prices, with a recent increase in coking coal prices by 150 yuan/ton, while thermal coal prices have seen a slight decline [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines is reported at 5.467 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.28% [8]. Inventory and Supply Chain - Coal inventory levels at major ports have increased, with a total of 27.012 million tons reported as of January 17, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.50% [7]. - The report anticipates a tightening supply in the near term due to ongoing safety inspections and the upcoming holiday season affecting production [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: 1. Companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [8]. 2. Companies with growth potential based on their production capacity, such as Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [8]. 3. Companies positioned for recovery in coking coal prices, including Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [2] Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a decline of 0.36% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.57% and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.57% [5][20] - The report highlights the correlation of REITs with various indices, showing a correlation of 0.23 with 10-year government bonds, 0.07 with 1-year government bonds, and 0.65 with convertible bonds [20] - The report emphasizes the strong allocation attributes of REITs in a stable economic environment, suggesting investors pay attention to sector rotation and expansion opportunities [9] Industry Overview - The REITs industry consists of 78 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 2,199.24 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,230.12 billion yuan [2] - The report notes significant events, including the listing of additional shares for 华夏华润有巢 REIT on January 12 and 中航京能光伏 REIT on January 15 [12] Market Performance - The trading volume for the week was 2.44 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 25.3%, with an average turnover rate of 0.4% [35] - The report details the performance of various REIT sectors, with significant declines in trading volumes for highways (-36.6%) and consumption (-37.5%), while ecological environmental REITs saw an increase of 13.4% [35] Valuation Situation - The estimated yield for bonds ranged from -0.31% to 10.93%, with 平安广州广河 having the highest yield at 10.93% and 创金合信首农 the lowest at -0.31% [37] - The P/NAV ratio for the REITs is reported to be between 0.73 and 1.79, with 嘉实物美消费 having the highest P/NAV at 1.79 and 华夏中国交建 the lowest at 0.73 [37]

A-Share Market - The A-share market exhibited a differentiated performance this week, with significant structural characteristics. Small and mid-cap growth sectors performed notably well, while major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 experienced slight pullbacks. The average daily trading volume reached 3.47 trillion, a 21.5% increase week-on-week, indicating heightened market activity [3][5]. - Regulatory signals indicated a "cooling" effect on the market, with the adjustment of the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% by the exchanges on January 14. This, along with substantial sell orders on major stocks during the closing auction, contributed to the pressure on broad market indices, while small-cap stocks maintained high interest [5][6]. - Looking ahead, while the increase in trading volume and structural market behavior presents positive signals, there are concerns regarding regulatory impacts on financing and potential volatility due to speculative funds concentrated in certain themes. Investors are advised to focus on technology growth stocks that may benefit from policy support, while being cautious of potential corrections following rapid price increases [6]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market showed an overall upward trend this week, with major indices recording gains. The Hang Seng Technology Index led the way with a 2.37% increase, followed by the Hang Seng Index at 2.34% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index at 1.9%. The average daily trading volume was also 3.47 trillion, reflecting a 21.5% week-on-week growth [7]. - The market's strength was driven by technology stocks, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors, which are expected to maintain long-term growth. The active IPO market in Hong Kong, especially in the new economy sector, presents structural opportunities for investors [7]. - Future outlook for the Hong Kong market appears positive, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a continued recovery in A-share sentiment. The ongoing improvement in AI demand is anticipated to make technology stocks a key focus, with leading companies likely to benefit from the growth of the AI industry. A barbell strategy is recommended for investors, combining high-dividend assets for stability with growth-oriented technology and new consumption sectors [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [7]. Core Views - The company is engaging in a strategic investment by subscribing to new shares of Jitu Express, which will enhance its international strategy and expand its market presence [5]. - The company aims to leverage synergies with Jitu Express to improve its end-to-end logistics solutions and enhance operational efficiency in both domestic and international markets [5]. - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 10,879 million, 12,011 million, and 13,843 million yuan respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.16, 2.38, and 2.75 yuan [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 258,409 million yuan for 2023, 284,420 million yuan for 2024, and expected growth to 373,115 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [2][6]. - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 8,234 million yuan, increasing to 10,170 million yuan in 2024, and further to 13,843 million yuan by 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2][6]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 24.0 in 2023 to 14.3 by 2027, suggesting an improving valuation over time [2][6].

Inflation Data Summary - December CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to an average increase of 0.1% in October and November[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth remained at 2.7%, consistent with the previous value[4] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, matching the prior year's growth[4] Price Components - Energy prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, down from a previous 4.2%[7] - Food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to a prior increase of 2.6%[7] - Core goods prices remained flat, with used car prices dropping by 1.1% month-on-month, indicating weak durable goods demand[8] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 remained stable, with FedWatch indicating an average of 2.2 cuts (56.2 basis points) compared to 2.1 cuts (51.6 basis points) prior to the data release[8] - The overall CPI and core inflation performance aligned with market expectations, indicating a moderate inflation environment[8] Future Outlook - Confirmation of the inflation path requires one to two "cleaner" data windows, with potential upward pressures from delayed economic activity due to government shutdowns and tariff pass-through effects starting in early 2026[9] - Downward pressures include falling crude oil prices and declining food commodity indices, alongside indicators suggesting a downward trend in housing rent CPI growth[9]

Group 1: Exchange Settlement Overview - The estimated "pending settlement" amount for enterprises is approximately $930 billion, accumulated from early 2022 to November 2025[1] - The willingness of export enterprises to settle foreign exchange is expected to improve in 2025 due to the RMB entering an appreciation cycle and strong performance of Chinese financial assets[1] - By the end of 2026, if 20% of the pending settlement is realized, it could lead to an increase in M1 by approximately 1.3 trillion RMB, contributing about 1.2 percentage points to M1 growth[1] Group 2: Impact on Liquidity and Market - Enterprise settlement essentially converts foreign exchange assets into RMB deposits, affecting the balance sheets of central banks, commercial banks, and enterprises[1] - The relationship between M1 growth and PPI typically shows that M1 growth leads PPI growth by 2-3 quarters, but the current M1 increase may have limited impact on PPI due to insufficient effective demand[1] - High-risk enterprises may channel some of the funds from settlements into the stock market, potentially providing incremental capital to the A-share market[1] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, potential data distortion from third-party sources, and the possibility of measurement deviations[1] - The analysis indicates that while M1 growth is expected, its direct influence on corporate profitability may be limited due to the different driving factors compared to previous cycles[1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the bond ETFs, focusing on the capital outflow and duration decline of credit - type ETFs. It analyzes the capital flow, net value performance, and duration of different types of bond ETFs [1][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Capital Flow - As of January 9, 2026, bond - type ETFs had a total net outflow of 64.352 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond - type ETFs had a net outflow of 10.454 billion yuan, 59.224 billion yuan, and a net inflow of 5.325 billion yuan respectively. Among credit - type ETFs, short - term financing bonds, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had a net outflow of 8.394 billion yuan, a net inflow of 0.242 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 0.006 billion yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds and science and technology innovation bonds had a net outflow of 7.071 billion yuan and 43.995 billion yuan respectively. Since 2025, interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond ETFs had cumulative net inflows of 65.923 billion yuan, 501.041 billion yuan, and 23.151 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 590.115 billion yuan [5]. Net Value Performance - Throughout the week, the net value trends of different types of bond ETF products were divergent. As of January 9, 2026, the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF Boshi performed weakly, with a weekly decline of 1.05%. The 0 - 4 Local Bond ETF rose 0.04%, and the 5 - year Local Bond ETF rose 0.01%. The Convertible Bond ETF and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETF rose 4.30% and 3.39% respectively last week [6]. Performance of Credit Bond ETF and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF - As of January 9, 2026, the median unit net values of credit bond ETF and science and technology innovation bond ETF were 1.0119 and 1.0003 respectively, with a weekly decline of 0.01% each. Among credit bond ETFs, the Haifutong Credit Bond ETF performed relatively well, with a weekly decline of 0.01%. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Yin Hua and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Wan Jia performed relatively well. The median discount rates of credit bond ETF and science and technology innovation bond ETF were 28BP and 22BP respectively [7]. Credit - type ETF Duration Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the holding durations of short - term financing ETF, corporate bond ETF, and urban investment bond ETF were 0.36 years, 1.58 years, and 2.15 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - making Corporate Bond Index were 3.59 years and 2.81 years respectively. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, the Shanghai AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, and the Shenzhen AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index were 3.32 years, 3.26 years, and 3.17 years respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company, as the first publicly listed mineral water company in China, is expected to benefit from national expansion, which will provide significant growth opportunities [6][68]. - The company has a strong strategic focus on its core business of natural mineral water, with plans to reduce losses in non-core segments [27][28]. - The mineral water industry is projected to grow steadily, with the company positioned to capture market share due to its unique water source and regional brand strength [60][66]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A at 1,122 million CNY, 2024A at 1,198 million CNY, 2025E at 1,274 million CNY, 2026E at 1,450 million CNY, and 2027E at 1,722 million CNY, with growth rates of -12%, 7%, 6%, 14%, and 19% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecast shows a significant turnaround from a loss of 457 million CNY in 2023A to a profit of 30 million CNY by 2027E, with growth rates of -900%, 101%, 137%, 40%, and 47% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.64 CNY in 2023A to 0.04 CNY in 2027E [2]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a 5% market share in the national mineral water market, with a strong presence in the Northeast region, where it has a reputation for high-quality water [6][69]. - The mineral water market in China is characterized by high concentration, with the leading brand holding an 80% market share, while the company is the only one among the top five brands to achieve sales growth in the past year [60][63]. - The overall packaging water market is expected to reach 224.23 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 3% [54]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity, with plans to increase output by 400,000 tons from its core water source and an additional 2 million tons from a secondary strategic source, potentially leading to a revenue increase of 2.633 billion CNY [6][68]. - A new logistics model combining rail, sea, and road transport is set to enhance cost efficiency and improve profit margins [6][28]. - The company is actively pursuing partnerships and collaborations to enhance its market reach, including significant contracts with major airlines and retail platforms [6][68].

Report Information - Report Title: Credit Business Weekly - How Will the A-share Market Evolve After the "Good Start" in 2026? [1][2] - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Analyst: Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu - Analyst Certificates: S0740519080003, S0740520120003 Market Review Market Performance - Last week, most major market indices rose, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index having the largest increase of 9.80% [7][13] - Among major industry indices, the Telecommunication Services Index and Healthcare Index performed relatively well, with weekly changes of 12.04% and 7.64% respectively; the Financial Index and Consumer Staples Index performed weakly, with weekly changes of 0.41% and 1.98% respectively [7][13] - Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, 29 industries rose. The industries with large increases were National Defense and Military Industry (13.63%), Media (13.10%), and Non-ferrous Metals (8.56%); the industries with large decreases were Banks (-1.90%), Transportation (-0.23%), and Petroleum and Petrochemical (-0.29%) [7][15][16] Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A Index last week was 2.851951 trillion yuan (previous value: 2.128335 trillion yuan), at a historically high level (99.30% quantile in the past three years) [18] Valuation Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All A Index was 23.22, up 0.90 from last week, at the 97.30% quantile in the past five years [23] - Among 30 Shenwan primary industries, the valuations (PE_TTM) of 28 industries recovered [23] Market Observation Market Trends - Last week, the A-share market continued its strong upward trend, with significant index performance, increasing trading volume, and improved profit - making effect. The main broad - based indices generally rose, and the trading volume of the Wind All A Index increased. The market's risk preference significantly recovered [5] - In the high - point market last week, technology remained the strong main line, with sectors such as media, computer, and electronics leading the gains. National Defense and Military Industry and Non - ferrous Metals also supported the market [5] Outlook - In the future, the upward trend may continue before the trading volume significantly shrinks. The market is likely to continue to revolve around the two main lines of technology segment switching and the upward demand expectation and strategic reserve of resources [6] Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the market may continue the upward trend. Investors can grasp the opportunity to allocate during market fluctuations. The robot sector is the most recommended main line, and the commercial aerospace sector may enter the "theme diffusion" stage. Other sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, sports and consumer services, and non - ferrous metals are also worthy of attention [6] Economic Calendar - This week, important economic data include China's export year - on - year rate (in US dollars) and the US PPI year - on - year rate [25]