Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the gradual improvement of fundamentals and the upward trend in new domains and new quality combat capabilities, particularly in satellite internet construction [8][24] - The defense index has risen by 24.04% since May 6, driven by military trade and parade sentiments, indicating strong market performance [8][23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry comprises 143 listed companies with a total market value of 30,365.12 billion and a circulating market value of 25,995.20 billion [2] Market Performance - The defense and military index increased by 5.93% this week, outperforming other major indices [7][37] - The current PE(TTM) for the defense and military sector is 75.6 times, with sub-sectors showing varying valuations [7][43] Key Improvement Tracks - **Missile and Military Electronics**: Anticipated growth in demand for precision-guided munitions is expected to lead to a surge in military electronics orders starting from Q4 2024 [8][23] - **Aerospace Engine Supply Chain**: Recovery in military engine procurement and improvements in profitability are expected due to new model introductions and maintenance business growth [9][10][23] Focus Areas for Development - **New Generation Manned and Unmanned Aircraft**: The J-35 is expected to drive a new wave of growth in the aerospace supply chain [11][23] - **Satellite Internet**: The successful launch of the seventh batch of satellites for the GW constellation marks significant progress in satellite internet capabilities [12][24] - **Commercial Space Industry**: The report highlights the acceleration of commercial space activities, with plans for significant satellite launches in 2025 [14][24] Suggested Companies to Watch - **Missile and Military Electronics**: Companies like Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, and Torch Electronics are highlighted [19][25] - **Aerospace Engines**: Focus on Aviation Power and its supporting companies [26] - **New Generation Unmanned Aircraft**: Companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and AVIC Chengfei are recommended [27] Key Developments - **Nuclear Fusion**: The "Spark One" project aims to complete construction by the end of 2029, with a goal to demonstrate power generation by 2030 [15][28] - **Low-altitude Economy**: The successful flight of a 2-ton eVTOL for offshore oil platform logistics marks a significant milestone [16][29]

A-Share Market - The overall market showed an increase last week, with small-cap stocks performing significantly better than mid and large-cap stocks. The CSI 2000 index rose by 3.54%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 2.51%, while the ChiNext index saw a modest rise of less than 0.5% [5] - The average daily trading volume reached 1.70 trillion, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 6.26% [5] - The recent market recovery has favored small-cap stocks, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, and national defense performing well, while the computer and pharmaceutical sectors lagged [5] - The Shanghai government released the "Implementation Plan for the Development of Embodied Intelligence Industry," aiming for a core industry scale to exceed 50 billion by 2027, which, along with the World Robot Conference, has attracted investment in the machinery sector [5] - Following the recent Politburo meeting, which aligned with expectations, the overall monetary policy remains stable, and the "anti-involution" narrative is moderate. The A-share market is expected to continue a structural upward trend driven by valuation recovery under a dual easing fiscal and monetary environment [5] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market experienced a rebound last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.43% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.17%. The materials sector, particularly metals, saw significant gains, with weekly increases exceeding 10%, while healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors faced pressure [6] - The rebound in the Hong Kong market was primarily driven by the materials sector, especially metals. The fifth round of price increases for coking coal was fully implemented, and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend boosted the coal sector. Additionally, rising gold prices contributed to substantial gains in gold stocks [6] - Companies in the metals sector, such as China Hongqiao, reported better-than-expected interim results, further supporting the rise in the metals sector [6] - Market sentiment has improved, with the Hang Seng Index showing relative strength, mainly driven by cyclical sectors. The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to sustain the recovery of cyclical sectors. Furthermore, the current low valuation of the internet social services sector in Hong Kong presents potential upside, and with rising AI capital expenditures and increased support for technological innovation policies, leading companies in the Hang Seng Tech sector have medium to long-term growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [7] Core Viewpoints - Recent financial reports from overseas IP leaders show growth in IP-related revenues [2] - The overall market capitalization of the industry is 16,817.42 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 15,402.81 billion yuan [3] - The report highlights strong performance from key companies such as Bubble Mart, which has a projected EPS growth from 0.81 yuan in 2023 to 5.45 yuan in 2026, and a PE ratio decreasing from 316 in 2023 to 47 in 2026 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Key Company Status - Bubble Mart: Current stock price is 278.0 yuan, with EPS projected to grow from 0.81 yuan in 2023 to 5.45 yuan in 2026, and a PE ratio decreasing from 316 to 47 [1] - Damai Entertainment: Current stock price is 1.2 yuan, with EPS projected to grow from 0.02 yuan in 2023 to 0.05 yuan in 2026, and a PE ratio decreasing from 54 to 22 [1] - Shanghai Film: Current stock price is 36.5 yuan, with EPS projected to grow from 0.28 yuan in 2023 to 0.73 yuan in 2026, and a PE ratio decreasing from 130 to 50 [1] - Zhongwen Online: Current stock price is 25.3 yuan, with EPS projected to recover from -0.33 yuan in 2024 to 0.09 yuan in 2026, and a PE ratio decreasing from 222 to 281 [1] - Rongxin Culture: Current stock price is 25.6 yuan, with EPS projected to recover from -0.53 yuan in 2024 to 0.47 yuan in 2026, and a PE ratio decreasing from 214 to 55 [1] Market Trends - Disney's total revenue increased by 2% year-on-year to 23.7 billion USD, with the entertainment sector generating 10.7 billion USD [5] - Sanrio reported a 49% year-on-year revenue increase to 430.97 billion JPY, with a 120% increase in revenue from the Chinese market [5] - CyberAgent's revenue grew by 10.9% year-on-year to 210.78 billion JPY, driven by strong performance in media and IP businesses [6] - Hasbro's Wizards segment saw a 16% revenue increase, primarily due to growth in the Magic: The Gathering franchise [6] - DeNa's gaming business maintained high growth, with a 23% year-on-year revenue increase to 417 billion JPY [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [2]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector is experiencing a dual boost from urban renovation demands and supply restrictions due to the "anti-involution" trend, leading to sustained growth in the cement sector [6][35]. - The report highlights the strong demand for specialty electronic fabrics, driven by upgrades in cloud manufacturing, and recommends companies like Zhongcai Technology and Huazhong Technology [6]. - Cement prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to self-regulatory measures in the industry, with recommendations for companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [6][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction materials industry consists of 73 listed companies with a total market value of 807.18 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 761.71 billion yuan [2]. Key Companies and Performance - Key companies include: - Beixin Building Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.2 yuan, with a PE ratio of 12.2, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Conch Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.5 yuan, with a PE ratio of 16.7, rated as "Buy" [4]. - China Jushi: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a PE ratio of 20.2, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Weixing New Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a PE ratio of 17.9, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Sankeshu: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.5 yuan, with a PE ratio of 87.9, rated as "Overweight" [4]. - Huaxin Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.2 yuan, with a PE ratio of 14.0, rated as "Buy" [4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the cement market is currently stable, with an average shipment rate of 44% across key regions, and prices have reached or fallen below cost lines in many areas [35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-regulatory measures to alleviate operational pressures and suggests that if effectively implemented, cement prices may begin to rise [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends increasing allocations in construction materials, particularly in cement and specialty electronic fabrics, highlighting companies that are expected to benefit from ongoing market trends and regulatory changes [6][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The overall market performance of the North Exchange shows a decline, with the North Exchange 50 Index dropping by 2.46% to close at 1419.61 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index fell by 1.96%, 1.69%, and 1.74% respectively [5][12]. - The top five performing sectors in the A-share market this week were pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, communications, media, leisure services, and mining, with respective gains of 1.46%, 1.29%, 1.19%, 0.28%, and 0.00% [5][17]. - Among the 269 listed companies on the North Exchange, 51 stocks rose, 218 fell, and none remained flat, resulting in a rise ratio of 19% [5][19]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Market Overview - As of August 3, 2025, the North Exchange comprises 269 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.113 billion [5][12]. - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange A-shares reached 25.7 billion, a decrease of 17% from the previous week, with a turnover rate of 5.94% [15]. North Exchange New Stocks - No new stocks were issued this week. As of July 28 to August 3, 2025, 22 companies updated their review status to "inquired," while 1 company was approved for the listing committee meeting, and 1 company was terminated [7][25]. North Exchange Key Announcements - Three key companies, Taihu Snow, Parallel Technology, and Minshida, released their semi-annual reports for 2025, all reporting net profit growth [30]. North Exchange Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-quality development in 2025, highlighting potential opportunities in data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that despite the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing, both new and second-hand housing transactions have declined [1][8] - The overall market performance is stronger than the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 2.16% compared to a 1.23% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of 0.93% [5][13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 2.16%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index which rose by 1.23% [5][13] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of August 1-7, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 19,984 units, a year-on-year decrease of 12% and a month-on-month decrease of 21.3% [6][21] - The total transaction area for new homes was 182.9 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 27% [6][21] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 15,748 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% [32][38] - The total transaction area for second-hand homes was 150.7 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.7% [32][38] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 188.41 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a depletion cycle of 148 weeks [49] 3. Land Market Supply and Transaction Analysis - During the week, 2,497.7 million square meters of land were supplied, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [7] - The average transaction price of land was 1,399 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [7] 4. Real Estate Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 17.76 billion yuan in credit bonds, with a year-on-year increase of 83.38% and a month-on-month increase of 108.18% [7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Wantushi AI Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Wantushi AI model evaluates indices based on their potential upward probability and selects ETFs with favorable characteristics for investment[6] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns a score to indices based on their upward probability. Indices with scores above 0.8 are selected[6] 2. For each selected index, the corresponding ETFs are identified[6] 3. Among these ETFs, those with a 30-day average daily trading volume exceeding 30 million RMB are retained[6] 4. Finally, the ETF with the lowest IOPV premium rate for each index is chosen[6] - **Model Evaluation**: The model systematically filters ETFs based on liquidity and valuation metrics, ensuring a focus on high-quality investment options[6] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Wantushi AI Model - **Index Code: 932000 (CSI)** - Upward Probability: 93.52% - Selected ETF: 159552 (CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399006 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 93.37% - Selected ETF: 159977 (Tianhong ChiNext ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399673 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 92.49% - Selected ETF: 159682 (ChiNext 50 ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399850 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 90.15% - Selected ETF: 159350 (Shenzhen 50 ETF by Fuguo)[7] - **Index Code: 000852 (SH)** - Upward Probability: 85.86% - Selected ETF: 159680 (1000 Enhanced ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399303 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 85.82% - Selected ETF: 159628 (Guozheng 2000 ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399293 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 85.03% - Selected ETF: 159814 (ChiNext Large Cap ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399330 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 84.81% - Selected ETF: 159901 (Shenzhen 100 ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399296 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 84.46% - Selected ETF: 159967 (ChiNext Growth ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 000905 (SH)** - Upward Probability: 83.23% - Selected ETF: 510580 (CSI 500 ETF by E Fund)[7] - **Index Code: 000906 (SH)** - Upward Probability: 81.05% - Selected ETF: 515800 (800 ETF)[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [2] Core Insights - The average duration gap in the insurance industry is approximately -7 years, with a trend of widening expected post-2024, particularly in the life insurance sector [5][21] - Large insurance companies generally maintain a duration gap around -5 years, while small to medium-sized insurers exhibit a widening gap, indicating a disparity in asset-liability management [5][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of managing duration gaps to mitigate interest rate risks and reinvestment risks, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [5][21] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: Duration Gap in Insurance Asset-Liability Matching - Duration gap refers to the difference between asset duration and liability duration, categorized into various types [9] - The report highlights the increasing duration gap due to the issuance of long-term savings products by life insurers [9][10] 2. Calculation of Duration Gap and Industry Data Statistics - The average duration gap for life insurance companies from 2020 to 2022 was -6.67 years, -6.57 years, and -6.28 years, respectively [21] - The report identifies a trend where over 65% of companies have seen their duration gaps widen, with many experiencing an increase of over 2 years [23][26] 3. Significance and Measures for Duration Gap Management - Effective duration gap management is crucial for balancing asset-liability management in insurance companies [5] - Suggested measures to narrow the duration gap include increasing allocations to long-term bonds, developing long-term equity investments, and adjusting product structures to enhance liability duration [5][21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like New China Life, Ping An, AIA, China Life, China Pacific, and PICC, which are well-positioned to benefit from the dual dividend attributes of insurance stocks [5][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 78% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by industry recovery and strong alpha performance [5] - The company is focusing on new product lines, which are expected to contribute positively to future performance [11] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 905 million, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40 million, a year-on-year decrease of 71% [7] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 499 million, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million, down 75% year-on-year but up 17% quarter-on-quarter [6][7] - The company recorded a significant inventory impairment of 58 million in H1 2025, impacting profitability [8] Product Development - The company is expanding its NOR Flash product line into high-capacity products, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand in edge AI applications [10] - The MCU segment continues to gain market share, with the company leveraging advanced embedded Flash technology to reduce costs and improve competitiveness [10] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,804 million in 2024, 2,194 million in 2025, and 2,742 million in 2026, with growth rates of 60% and 22% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [5][12] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 208 million, with a PE ratio of 50.4, indicating potential for earnings growth as new products are launched [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Changshu Bank [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank's revenue and profit continue to show double-digit growth, with a 5.5 percentage point increase in the dividend payout ratio [6][21] - The bank's operating income for 2025 is projected to be 12,465 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3,280 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Changshu Bank's revenue increased by 10.1% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 13.6% [6] - Net interest income grew by 0.8% year-on-year, and non-interest income surged by 57.2% [6] - The annualized net interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 2.45% [6] Asset and Liability Management - The bank's credit demand remains weak, with new loans in Q2 2025 totaling 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.86 billion yuan year-on-year [6] - Total deposits increased by 1.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.49 billion yuan [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a slight increase in the overdue rate to 1.62% [20] - The provision coverage ratio stands at 489.32%, indicating strong asset quality management [20] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at 0.15 yuan per share, totaling 497 million yuan, which is 25.27% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][21] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 6.56, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.85 [1] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.31% in 2025 [1]