宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 4 月 13 日 周度金融市场跟踪 受美国关税政策影响全球市场剧烈震荡 （ 4 月 7 日 -4 月 11 日） 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：郭军 (8610)66229081 jun.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519070001 证券分析师：李晨希 chenxi.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525010002 股票方面，本周 A 股受中美关税不断加码影响大幅波动。全周累计看，A 股整体下 跌，小盘股下跌更多，中证 2000 指数下跌 7.0%，中证 1000 指数下跌 5.5%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.9%。港股本周同样下跌，已是连续第五周下跌，恒生指数下跌 8.5%，恒 生科技指数下跌 7.8%。行业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数 27 个下跌，农林牧渔、 商贸零售、国防军工和食品饮料 4 个行业上涨。周内看，周一（4 月 7 日）受中美第 一轮互加关税影响，市场大幅低开，开盘后低开低走，虽然下午两点半汇金公司开 ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 4 月 13 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20250413 国际油价波动，溴素价格上涨，丁二烯价格下跌 四月份，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，建议关注年报季报行情， 自主可控日益关键的电子材料公司，以及分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。 行业动态 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250406》20250408 《化工行业周报 20250330》20250331 《化工行业周报 20250323》20250324 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 联系人：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号：S1300123070003 本周（04.07-04.13）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 14 个品种价格上涨，52 个品种价 格下跌，34 个品种价格稳定。跟踪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2025 inflation data, the year - on - year change rates of core and food CPI improved compared to the previous month. Energy price inflation in March was affected by trade friction uncertainties and is expected to face pressure in April [3][6]. - Upstream prices showed a stabilizing trend, reflecting improved domestic demand. Stable domestic demand gives China more leverage in external negotiations [3][12]. - Moderate inflation gives China's monetary policy greater flexibility, but policy rate cuts are still somewhat restricted by the low net interest margin of banks. Whether to cut rates may mainly depend on the impact of trade friction on residents' savings propensity [3][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On April 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released March 2025 inflation data. In March, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with food prices down 1.4% and non - food prices up 0.2%. The CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [5]. Comment - Core and food CPI: The year - on - year change rates of core and food CPI improved in March. The core CPI was flat month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year. The rent - related CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.1%. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in March was about 291,000 square meters, higher than that in March 2024 [6]. - Food CPI: After the Spring Festival, the food CPI decreased month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline converged. In March, the food CPI decreased by 1.4% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline also narrowed to 1.4% [9]. - Energy price inflation: Affected by trade friction uncertainties, international oil prices in March decreased compared to February, driving down domestic oil prices. In April, energy inflation is expected to continue facing pressure due to increased trade friction risks and OPEC +'s decision to accelerate production in May [12]. - Upstream prices: The price indices of edible agricultural products and production materials showed signs of stabilization at the end of March, reflecting improved domestic demand. China's counter - tariffs on the US may affect the prices of imported products such as agricultural products, but the sources of agricultural product imports have become more diversified [12]. - Monetary policy: Moderate inflation gives China's monetary policy greater flexibility, but policy rate cuts are restricted by the low net interest margin of banks. Whether to cut rates may depend on the impact of trade friction on residents' savings propensity. If the savings propensity can drive down the bank's liability cost, the logic of policy rate cuts is more reasonable [15].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 4 月 11 日 | 4 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 600428.SH | 中远海特 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 600600.SH | 青岛啤酒 | | 603081.SH | 大丰实业 | | 002916.SZ | 深南电路 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250411 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】家庭户二十年变迁*张晓娇 朱启兵。从 2000 年的全国第五次 人口普查到 2020 年的全国第七次人口普查，我国家庭户规模不断下降，同 时主要家庭户类型也从二代三人户变为一代一人户，家庭户变化的背后有人 口流动、人口教育红利、少子老龄化等多方面因素的影响，但从 2020 年七 普数据细项来看，我国居民内需仍有较大释放空间。 【宏观经济】黄金价格上涨的逻辑仍在*朱启兵。近年来全球央行黄金储备 的增加是推动本轮黄金价格上涨的重要因素，而实际利率等传统因素对本轮 金价上涨的解释力不足； ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 11 日 002938.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 26.00 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (27.0) (33.4) (31.6) 18.7 相对深圳成指 (21.5) (21.4) (27.3) 17.8 发行股数 (百万) 2,318.56 (14%) 10% 34% 59% 83% 107% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 鹏鼎控股 深圳成指 | 流通股 (百万) | 2,305.49 | | --- | --- | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 60,282.58 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 501.84 | | 主要股东(%) | | | 美港实业有限公司 | 66.17 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 9 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《鹏鼎控股》20241 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a mild recovery in the storage industry and structural growth, leading to significant revenue and net profit growth in 2024 [4] - The company's storage product gross margin is continuously improving, and the "Storage+" business is steadily growing, with expectations of benefiting from AI applications [5] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 21.81 billion, RMB 25.80 billion, and RMB 30.09 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 3.41 billion, RMB 4.22 billion, and RMB 4.81 billion [5][7] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 3.23, RMB 4.00, and RMB 4.56 respectively, with PE ratios of 28.6, 23.1, and 20.2 [5][7] - In 2024, the company is anticipated to achieve a revenue of RMB 18.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 60.03%, and a net profit of RMB 2.92 billion, marking a significant turnaround from losses [8] Product Performance - The company's storage series chips generated revenue of RMB 14.17 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 34.61%, and a shipment volume of 6.772 billion units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.10% [8] - The "Storage+" series chips achieved revenue of RMB 3.86 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 234.58%, with a gross margin of 29.63% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in 2024, with a projected continued increase in performance for Q1 2025, driven by AI and automotive business segments [3][8] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 166.97 billion, RMB 209.95 billion, and RMB 248.00 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 33.30 billion, RMB 44.24 billion, and RMB 51.48 billion [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 13,342 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.3%, and a net profit of RMB 2,587 million, up 71.1% [7][8] - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 was RMB 3,231 million, with a projected EBITDA of RMB 4,405 million for 2025 [7][8] - The gross margin for 2024 was 34.54%, an increase of 3.37 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 19.39%, up 2.47 percentage points [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts a revenue of RMB 16,697 million for 2025, with a growth rate of 25.2% [7][8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is RMB 3,330 million, reflecting a growth rate of 28.7% [7][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on the AI and HPC sectors, with a significant increase in revenue from AI server and HPC-related PCB products, which accounted for approximately 29.48% of total revenue in 2024 [8] - The automotive segment is also growing, with revenue expected to reach RMB 24.08 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.61% [8]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 4 月 10 日 3 月通胀点评 内外部因素交织，共同影响 3 月物价 3 月 CPI 同比增速符合万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期，国 际油价下降对 CPI 和 PPI 都构成拖累；CPI 方面，食品价格偏弱仍是一个重 要影响因素，但季节性的出行服务价格回落是另一个重要影响；整体来看， 内需疲弱仍在拖累物价表现，但展望全年，内需、国内稳增长政策以及特朗 普的关税政策，都将是年内物价走势的重要影响因素。 相关研究报告 《家庭户二十年变迁》20250410 《黄金价格上涨的逻辑仍在》20250410 《关税冲击与中美债市》20250406 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 3 月 CPI 环比下降 0.4%，同比下降 0.1%，核 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to market competition and the bankruptcy of Northvolt, but the acceleration of new lithium battery materials' marketization is expected to improve future performance [3][8] - The company reported a net profit of 472 million RMB for 2024, a decrease of 75.48% year-on-year, with total revenue of 7.593 billion RMB, down 49.80% year-on-year [8][9] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to recover from 7.593 billion RMB in 2024 to 10.159 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 33.8% [7] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.35 RMB, 1.68 RMB, and 2.06 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 27.0, 21.6, and 17.6 [5][10] - The company’s EBITDA is expected to increase from 571 million RMB in 2024 to 993 million RMB in 2025 [7][10] Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed, with a year-to-date absolute return of -6.4% and a 12-month return of -30.5% [2] - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 18.45 billion RMB [2]

石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 10 日 601857.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 7.54 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (14.0) (2.0) (14.5) (25.5) 相对上证综指 (11.7) 3.6 (13.7) (30.0) 发行股数 (百万) 183,020.98 流通股 (百万) 183,020.98 总市值 (人民币 百万) 1,379,978.17 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 1,334.82 主要股东 中国石油天然气集团有限公司 82.46% (25%) (17%) (9%) (1%) 7% 15% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 中国石油 上证综指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 9 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《中国石油》20241031 《中国石油》20240902 《中国石油》2024 ...