Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 47.89 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][4]. Core Views - The company is expanding its AI production capacity in Thailand, which supports its "cloud-edge" full industry chain strategy. This investment is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the AI application market [4][6]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 411.55 billion, RMB 501.93 billion, and RMB 591.50 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 45.45 billion, RMB 57.76 billion, and RMB 67.39 billion. The price-to-earnings ratios for these years are estimated at 24.4, 19.2, and 16.5 times [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company’s main revenue for 2025 is estimated at RMB 41,155 million, with a growth rate of 17.1% compared to the previous year. The EBITDA is projected to be RMB 7,170 million, and the net profit is expected to reach RMB 4,545 million, reflecting a growth rate of 25.5% [5][10]. - The company’s capital expenditure reached RMB 49.72 billion by the end of Q3 2025, indicating a significant increase in investment compared to the previous year [6][7]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 268.55 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.34%, with a net profit of RMB 24.07 billion, up 21.23% [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in various locations, including Huai'an, Thailand, and Kaohsiung, Taiwan, to meet the growing demand for AI-related products [6][7]. - The strategic investment in Thailand, amounting to RMB 42.97 billion, aims to build production facilities and enhance the company's product offerings in high-end HDI and other advanced PCB solutions [6][7].

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 16 日 投资建议 相关研究报告 《稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式——中央经济工作 会议解读》（2025/12/12） 《房地产高质量发展方向聚焦完善制度、优化供 给、提升品质；城市更新将进入加速推进阶段—— "十五五"规划建议解读》（2025/11/3） 《受低基数以及一线城市新政影响，单月销售降幅 收窄；今年以来单月投资降幅持续扩大——房地产 行业 2025 年 9 月统计局数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《70 城新房房价环比跌幅扩大，二手房持平；时 隔一年再度出现所有城市二手房房价全部下跌的情 形——房地产行业 2025 年 9 月 70 个大中城市房价 数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《资产证券化系列报告二：从"证券化"到"通证 化"，RWA 重构资产投资逻辑》（2025/09/24） 《解密上海楼市：上海楼市周期性与结构性研究》 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评 所有 70 城二手房房价连续三个月下跌；一线城市房价 环比跌幅扩大 国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月份 70 个大中城市 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the new consumption market has a rotation and rebound configuration opportunity, driven by three main logics: fundamental, financial, and style rotation [9][10][12] - The fundamental aspect indicates that under the backdrop of US-China trade friction, there is a strong expectation for policies to boost domestic demand, which catalyzes the consumption style market [9][10] - Financially, global capital reallocation and valuation recovery in Hong Kong stocks are noted, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing a resonance in consumer sectors [10][12] Group 2 - The report discusses structural changes in the Chinese consumption market driven by demographic shifts and weakening consumer confidence, with the middle-income group expanding and the "Z generation" becoming the main consumer force [28][29] - It emphasizes that the economic transformation and declining real estate cycle have led to a cautious consumer sentiment, affecting spending behavior [38][40] Group 3 - The report identifies three key trends in new consumption: "emotional consumption," "value-for-money consumption," and "service and experience consumption," each with distinct growth drivers and investment opportunities [48][59][68] - "Emotional consumption" is characterized by high margins and resilience to economic cycles, with significant growth in IP economy and pet economy sectors [48][51] - "Value-for-money consumption" is driven by rational consumption tendencies and supply chain optimization, leading to the rise of discount retail and bulk snack industries [59][62] Group 4 - The report notes that the service and experience consumption sector is expected to grow rapidly, particularly in outdoor sports, as GDP per capita surpasses 10,000 USD, influenced by the "single economy" and changing consumption preferences [68][71] - It highlights that outdoor apparel and footwear sales are projected to see significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 87.3% expected in 2024 [68][71]

强于大市 房地产行业2025 年11 月统计局数据点评 单月投资创历史最大降幅； 1-11 月销售降幅进一步扩大 国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月份全国房地产开发投资和销售情况。11 月销售面积 6720 万平，同 比增速-17.3%（前值：-18.8%）；开发投资金额 5028 亿元，同比增速-30.3%（前值：-23.0%）； 新开工面积 4396 万平，同比增速-27.6%（前值：-29.5%）。 统计局披露同比增速说明：根据房地产开发统计制度、统计执法检查等规定，对上年同期房地产 开发投资、新建商品房销售面积等数据进行修订，增速按可比口径计算。 核心观点 房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 16 日 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式——中央经济工 作会议解读》（2025/12/12） 《房地产高质量发展方向聚焦完善制度、优化供给、 提升品质；城市更新将进入加速推进阶段——"十 五五"规划建议解读》（2025/11/3） 《受低基数以及一线城市新政影响，单月销售降幅 收窄；今 ...

核心观点 政策 本周中央经济工作会议召开，关于房地产的表述有两部分。一部分在坚持内需主 导，建设强大国内市场中提到高质量发展城市更新。另一部分在坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险中提到着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度 改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 房地产行业第 50 周周报（2025 年 12 月 6 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日） 新房二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济工作会议提出"因城 施策去库存" 新房成交面积同环比降幅均收窄；二手房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；新 房库存面积环比上升、同比下降；去化周期环比下降、同比上升。 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手 ...

Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than October and 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, and was below market expectations[12] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with private fixed asset investment down by 5.3%[21] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to November saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% and real estate investment fell by 15.9%[23] - High-tech industries maintained strong performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in industrial added value from January to November[2] - Real estate new construction area decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% and sales revenue down by 11.1%[28] Consumer Behavior - The decline in retail sales was particularly pronounced in post-real estate consumption categories such as furniture and home appliances, which saw significant drops[15] - Online retail accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1%[14] Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should consider early implementation to address potential uncertainties in the first quarter of 2026, especially given the late timing of the Spring Festival[32] - Short-term focus on monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is recommended[32] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international geopolitical complexities[32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [34]. Core Insights - Alibaba has established the "Qianwen C-end Business Group" to develop an AI super app, aiming to enhance its AI to consumer (AI to C) strategy and create a comprehensive AI assistant for users [10][12]. - OpenAI has released the GPT-5.2 model, which is optimized for professional applications, marking a shift towards specialized capabilities in the AI model competition [13][14]. - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China, signaling a shift in export policy towards conditional release rather than outright restrictions [17][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - It is advised to focus on companies related to the Qianwen and domestic computing power supply chain, including Data Port, Qianfang Technology, Guangyun Technology, Boyan Technology, Shiji Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Haiguang Information, Inspur Information, Horizon Robotics, and Black Sesame Intelligence [3]. Industry News - Alibaba's Qianwen C-end Business Group aims to integrate various consumer-facing services into a single AI super app, enhancing user engagement and accessibility [10][12]. - OpenAI's GPT-5.2 model has set new benchmarks in various professional tasks, indicating a competitive landscape in AI development [14][16]. - The U.S. has permitted NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China, which are crucial for AI model training, reflecting a strategic adjustment in technology export policies [17][18]. Company Dynamics - The establishment of the Qianwen C-end Business Group by Alibaba represents a significant organizational shift aimed at enhancing its AI capabilities and market presence [12]. - OpenAI's rapid iteration of its models, including the recent release of GPT-5.2, highlights the intense competition in the AI sector and the need for continuous innovation [14][16]. - The policy change regarding the export of H200 chips is expected to alleviate some high-end computing power shortages in China, while also emphasizing the importance of domestic advancements in chip technology [18].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that during the "Black Friday" shopping season, Jitu Express achieved a record high in daily collection volume in Brazil, and the first domestically produced heavy-duty eVTOL successfully completed its maiden flight [2][3] - In shipping, crude oil freight rates have declined from high levels, while freight rates on long-distance routes have shown mixed trends [3][15] - The report notes that the domestic logistics market is experiencing significant growth, particularly in emerging markets [3][25] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported at 2324.92 points, a slight increase of 0.1% from December 4 [3][15] - The first domestically produced heavy-duty eVTOL, AR-E800, successfully completed its maiden flight, marking a significant milestone in China's aviation industry [3][17] - Jitu Express reported a record high in daily collection volume in Brazil during the "Black Friday" shopping season, reflecting strong growth in logistics operations [3][25] High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year [29] - In October 2025, the express delivery business volume increased by 7.90% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 4.70% [56] - The shipping market has shown mixed trends, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) reported at 1506.46 points, a week-on-week increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 36.82% [43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy sectors, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - The report emphasizes the potential in the express delivery sector, recommending companies like SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][45] Core Views - The report highlights the decline in international oil prices and methionine prices, while TDI prices have increased. It suggests focusing on undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies amid price increases [2][10]. Industry Dynamics - In the week of December 8-14, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases, 37 saw declines, and 21 remained stable. The average price of TDI rose by 2.49% week-on-week, while methionine prices fell by 2.45% [29][31][32]. - The average cost of TDI was 11,819 CNY/ton, down 0.92% from the previous week, with an average gross profit of 2,766.71 CNY/ton, up 31.79% week-on-week [31]. - The report notes that the SW basic chemical industry P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 24.14, at the 71.18% historical percentile, while the oil and petrochemical industry P/E ratio is 12.85, at the 35.15% historical percentile [10][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued industry leaders and suggests a long-term investment strategy that includes sectors like semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials, which are expected to have significant growth potential [10][29]. - Specific stock recommendations include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, Juhua Co., New Chemical, China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical, and others [10][29].

Macroeconomic Overview - The central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, with expectations for fiscal spending and financing to remain strong next year [2][21][24] - The monetary policy is set to continue with moderate easing, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2][21][22] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: equities > commodities > bonds > cash, indicating a preference for equities in the current market environment [3][4] - The focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies is highlighted for equities, suggesting an overweight position [4][38] - Bonds are recommended for underweight allocation due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4][43] - Commodities are suggested for standard allocation, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policy implementation [4][49] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.08% this week, while the CSI 300 index futures fell by 0.07% [1][12] - The futures for coking coal dropped significantly by 11.72%, and iron ore main contracts fell by 3.49% [1][12] - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84%, with active ten-year government bond futures rising by 0.10% [1][12][43] Financial Data Insights - In the first eleven months, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale increased by 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total by 3.99 trillion yuan [24] - The CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest increase since March 2024, while the PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [24][25] Sector-Specific Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index leading gains at 2.74%, while the Shanghai Dividend Index saw a decline of 2.63% [38] - Key sectors such as telecommunications and defense showed strong performance, while coal and oil sectors faced declines [38][39]