Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Views - The Central Economic Work Conference promotes a comprehensive green transition, with expectations for high growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2025, driving demand for batteries and materials [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is pushing for a "de-involution" in the battery industry, which is expected to restore profitability across the supply chain [1] - Solid-state battery industrialization is progressing, with a focus on related materials and equipment companies [1] - The photovoltaic sector is seeing ongoing supply-side reforms, with the integration of polysilicon production capacity and rising silver prices optimizing the battery cell segment [1] - Wind power demand is expected to continue growing, with government support for new projects [1] - Energy storage remains in high demand, with rising prices for upstream materials affecting downstream integration [1] - Hydrogen energy is anticipated to open up new demand for green hydrogen, with a focus on downstream applications [1] - Nuclear fusion is highlighted as a long-term energy development direction, with recommendations to focus on core suppliers in this area [1] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The electric equipment and new energy sector rose by 1.19%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.34% [10] - Key sectors included power generation equipment (+5.64%) and nuclear power (+3.21%), while the photovoltaic sector saw a decline of 0.59% [13] New Energy Vehicles - In November, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 20% and 20.6% [26] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.2% [26] Battery Industry - Domestic battery installation reached 93.5 GWh in November, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [26] - The price of battery products is expected to rise, with Dejia Energy announcing a 15% price increase [26] Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The establishment of a polysilicon production capacity integration platform has been officially launched [26] - A 1,422 MW offshore wind power project in Jiangsu has been announced [26] Energy Storage - The newly added bidding scale for energy storage systems reached 21.8 GW/64 GWh in November, a 65% increase month-on-month [26] Company Developments - Tianjun Wind Power plans to raise up to 1.95 billion yuan for expansion projects [28] - Ningde Times intends to issue bonds not exceeding 10 billion yuan [28] - Longi Green Energy is planning an employee stock ownership plan with performance targets set for 2026 and beyond [28]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, style performance, valuation metrics, and fund flows without detailing quantitative models or factor construction[1][2][3] - Key metrics such as PE_TTM, ERP, and style indices are discussed, but no explicit quantitative model or factor development process is provided[1][2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bond market may have a relatively insufficient preference for duration. The proportion of bonds held by institutions with a preference for longer - duration, such as commercial banks and insurance institutions, has decreased. To support macro - economic stability and control the upward pressure on yields, monetary policy is expected to provide more long - term liquidity [2] - Trump is considering the candidate for the next Fed Chair. His choice of Hassett or Warsh may be interpreted differently by the market in terms of the controllability and independence of monetary policy [2] - Upstream price indicators have further rebounded, with different trends in various commodity prices and real estate transaction data [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - Frequency Data Scan - **Domestic Bond Market Situation**: The year - on - year growth rate of the domestic social financing stock in November was 8.5%. The growth rate of government bonds slowed but remained at 18.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of household RMB loans dropped to about 1.1%, while enterprise financing (excluding foreign - currency loans) increased by about 7.8%. Since Q4 last year, the proportion of bonds held by commercial banks and insurance institutions in the inter - bank market bond custody volume has decreased. As of October this year, it was about 69.7%, a decrease of about 3 percentage points from the 2024 high [2] - **International Financial Situation**: The Fed meeting in the week of December 12 fulfilled the interest - rate cut expectation. However, the 10 - year government bond yields of major developed economies mainly increased this week (US Treasury bonds by 5BP, German bonds by 6BP, French bonds by 5BP, Italian bonds by 6BP, and Spanish bonds by 4BP). Trump is considering the next Fed Chair, with Hassett and Warsh as candidates [2] - **Price Index Changes**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.73% year - on - year. The average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables increased by 0.71% week - on - week and 18.48% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 1.10% week - on - week in the week of December 5, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.09%. The domestic cement price index increased by 0.56% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 1.84% on average week - on - week. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.99% and 2.03% on average week - on - week respectively. The LME copper spot price increased by 2.31% on average week - on - week, and the aluminum spot price decreased by 0.32%. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from December 1 - 10, 2025, was about 267,000 square meters per day, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2] 3.2 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report provides a large amount of high - frequency data on various aspects, including food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, showing the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in these indicators [17][18] 3.3 Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicator Trends - The report presents multiple sets of charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - economic indicators, such as the year - on - year change in copper spot price and the year - on - year change in industrial added value (+ year - on - year change in PPI), etc., to help analyze the relationship between high - frequency data and macro - economic indicators [21] 3.4 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The report shows high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the implied interest - rate hike or cut prospects of central banks in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [90][95] 3.5 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators, such as the daily average output of crude steel (decadal), production material price index, etc., with all seasonal trend indicators being the month - on - month increase rate [103] 3.6 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [152][153]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of a "spring surge" market, led by technology sectors, particularly focusing on AI computing power and commercial aerospace as dual main lines for investment opportunities [3][13][37] - The transition from a policy-driven market to one driven by fundamental earnings growth is highlighted, with expectations of a stable macroeconomic environment supporting this shift [13][22] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing, while traditional sectors like real estate and energy remain under pressure [22][37] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion have positively impacted global risk assets, creating a favorable environment for A-shares to remain in an upward trajectory [12][13] - The Central Economic Work Conference has set priorities for 2026, emphasizing domestic demand and technological development, which are expected to bolster market confidence [12][13] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware, is noted for its resilience and growth potential, with specific attention to the TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) supply chain and related components like optical modules and storage chips [27][31][32] - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a significant policy boost, with the establishment of a dedicated commercial aerospace department and supportive government actions expected to enhance market confidence and growth prospects [37] Market Trends - Recent market movements show a preference for growth-oriented sectors, with notable gains in communications and electronics, while traditional sectors face declines [22][34] - The report indicates a strong inflow of funds into electronic and communication sectors, reflecting investor confidence in these areas [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the TPU industry chain, particularly in light of anticipated shortages in optical communication chips and the expected price increases in 2026 [28][31][32] - Key stocks in the TPU supply chain have shown significant price increases, indicating strong market performance and potential for further growth [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4] Core Views - The company demonstrates confidence through its second phase of restricted stock incentive plan, indicating strong commitment [4][9] - The AI and storage sectors continue to show favorable market conditions, supporting the company's growth prospects [4][9] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 230.02 billion, RMB 321.10 billion, and RMB 419.23 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - Projected net profits for the same years are RMB 33.41 billion, RMB 58.16 billion, and RMB 76.43 billion, with corresponding EPS of RMB 5.01, RMB 8.72, and RMB 11.46 [6] - The PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 38.4, 22.0, and 16.8 respectively [6] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company’s main revenue is projected to grow from RMB 13,526 million in 2023 to RMB 41,923 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30.6% [8] - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,398 million in 2023 to RMB 7,643 million in 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [8] Shareholder Incentives - The incentive plan involves granting 15.16 million shares, representing 2.27% of the total share capital, with a grant price of RMB 114.72 per share [9] - The plan aims to align the interests of management and key personnel with the company's long-term performance [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its high-end PCB production capacity through new factories and technological upgrades, which will support future demand [9] - The focus on AI computing upgrades and structural growth in the storage market is expected to drive revenue and profit growth [9]

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 12 月 14 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20251211 当前（2025 年 12 月 11 日）中银多策略行业配置系统仓位：通信 （9.6%）、银行（9.5%）、交通运输（9.1%）、非银行金融（8.0%）、 食品饮料（7.7%）、电力设备及新能源（7.2%）、钢铁（6.7%）、机械 （6.2%）、基础化工（4.7%）、石油石化（4.7%）、家电（4.4%）、综 合 （3.5% ）、农林牧渔（ 3.5% ）、综合金融（ 3.5% ）、有色金属 （3.5%）、建材（3.4%）、电子（2.4%）、电力及公用事业（1.2%）、 建筑（1.2%）。 相关研究报告 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（七）：如何把 握市场"未证伪情绪"构建行业动量策略》 20220917 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（八）："估值泡 沫保护"的高景气行业轮动策略》20221018 《中银证券宏观基本面行业轮动新框架：对传 统自上而下资产配置困境的破局》20230518 《中银证券量化行业轮动系列（九）：长期反 转-中期动量-低拥挤"行业轮动策略》20240914 《中银证券量化行 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In November, new social financing (社融) reached 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.02 trillion yuan by 23.3%[2] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, consistent with the previous month and close to the expected 8.45%[2] - New RMB loans in November amounted to 405.3 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 116.3 billion yuan compared to the same month last year[2] Group 2: Financing Structure and Trends - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by government bonds (1.20 trillion yuan) and corporate bonds (416.9 billion yuan)[2] - Direct financing increased by 170.2 billion yuan year-on-year, while off-balance-sheet financing rose by 132.8 billion yuan[2] - The proportion of government bonds in the financing structure increased by 0.16 percentage points, while RMB loans decreased by 0.23 percentage points[2] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth was 8.0% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth was 4.9%, down 1.3 percentage points[2] - New deposits in November totaled 1.41 trillion yuan, with a significant decline of 760 billion yuan compared to the same month last year[2] - The decline in new deposits was mainly due to a drop in both resident deposits (120 billion yuan) and corporate deposits (94.7 billion yuan) year-on-year[2] Group 4: Loan Performance - New loans in November were 390 billion yuan, with short-term loans and bills at 218.4 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 180 billion yuan[2] - The overall performance of new loans was weak, particularly in the residential sector, which saw a decrease of 206.3 billion yuan year-on-year[2] - Corporate loans were relatively strong, with an increase of 610 billion yuan compared to the previous year[2] Group 5: Future Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative into 2026, with a focus on maintaining liquidity[2] - Key areas to monitor include year-end corporate inventory adjustments, early-year demand performance, and changes in real estate sales[2] - Risks include potential global inflation increases, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and complex international situations[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [14]. Core Insights - The recent bidding results for duty-free shops at Shanghai Airport show that China Duty Free Group and Dufry have won the bids, which is expected to enhance competition and operational vitality in the duty-free sector. The rental agreement has been optimized to a base fee plus a low commission model, which is anticipated to encourage duty-free operators to expand sales in port channels and reduce costs, benefiting both operators and the airport [1][3]. - The upcoming closure of Hainan and the continuous policy support across various channels, along with the optimized rental agreements at key ports, present multiple advantages for the duty-free industry. The report suggests focusing on the leading duty-free operator, China Duty Free Group, and notes that Wangfujing, as a state-owned enterprise in Beijing, is also expected to participate in the bidding and expand its port channel business [3]. Summary by Sections Bidding Results - Shanghai Airport announced the candidates for the duty-free shop bids, with Dufry winning the bid for the T1 and S1 satellite hall at Pudong Airport, and China Duty Free Group winning the T2 and S2 satellite hall and the T1 international section at Hongqiao Airport. The monthly fixed fees for the winning bids are 3,141 RMB/m²/month for Dufry, 3,090 RMB/m²/month for China Duty Free Group at Pudong T2, and 2,827 RMB/m²/month for China Duty Free Group at Hongqiao T1, with commission rates ranging from 8% to 24% [5][8]. Competitive Landscape - The introduction of foreign operators is expected to invigorate the duty-free market at ports, breaking the previous exclusive operating model. Dufry, backed by the world's largest travel retailer, is anticipated to enhance competition and operational efficiency in the duty-free sector [5][8]. Financial Implications - The new contracts feature a fixed fee plus a floating commission model, which is expected to lower the commission rates compared to previous agreements. The annual base fees remain stable, with Pudong T1 at 300 million RMB, Pudong T2 at 330 million RMB, and Hongqiao T1 at 70 million RMB. This new structure is likely to encourage duty-free operators to increase sales volume, effectively diluting fixed costs and promoting brand expansion [5][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [36]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of financial services in supporting the national strategy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the role of the financial sector as a crucial hub for resource allocation and policy transmission [1][3]. - The central economic work conference outlines a path for capital market reform and high-quality industry development by 2026, suggesting a long-term upward adjustment in the valuation of the securities industry [3][27]. - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: the expansion of advantages for leading comprehensive brokerages and the differentiated development of specialized small and medium-sized brokerages [3]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for financial institutions to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion and technological innovation, which are critical for long-term national development [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, anticipating upward valuation potential due to the rising prosperity of the securities industry and the importance of financial functions highlighted in the central economic work conference [3][27]. Market Data - From December 8 to December 12, the CSI All Share Index increased by 0.19%, while the non-banking industry index rose by 0.81%. The brokerage industry specifically saw a 0.31% increase during this period [10][11]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds was 2,394.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.06% increase week-on-week [14]. Company Announcements - Several companies, including Shenhua Investment and Guosen Securities, announced cash dividend plans for their shareholders, indicating ongoing profitability and shareholder returns [28][29].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,531, with a year-to-date increase of 27.3%[2] - The MSCI China index showed a year-to-date increase of 28.6%, closing at 83[2] - The KOSPI index experienced a significant year-to-date increase of 71.3%, closing at 4,111[2] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil prices decreased by 1.0% to $62 per barrel, with a year-to-date decline of 13.6%[3] - Gold prices remained stable at $4,281 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 63.1%[3] - Copper prices increased by 0.6% to $11,557 per ton, with a year-to-date rise of 31.8%[3] Economic Indicators - China's retail sales year-on-year growth was reported at 2.9%, matching consensus expectations[4] - Industrial production in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, slightly below the consensus of 5.0%[4] - The surveyed jobless rate in China remained stable at 5.1%[4] Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a proactive fiscal policy with necessary fiscal deficits and a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth[6] - A specific action plan to improve household income was introduced to boost consumption from both long-term and demand perspectives[7] - The conference highlighted the need to stabilize investment growth and allocate more investment financing[7]