证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 4 月 9 日 股票投资评级 买入 |首次覆盖 个股表现 2024-04 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 -41% -31% -21% -11% -1% 9% 19% 29% 39% 49% 香农芯创 电子 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 26.43 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.58 | / 4.40 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）121 | / 116 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 43.75 / 23.11 | | 资产负债率(%) | 60.4% | | 市盈率 | 45.57 | | | 深圳市领信基石股权投 资基金管理合伙企业 | | 第一大股东 | (有限合伙)-深圳市领泰 | | | 基石投资合伙企业(有 | | 限合伙) | | 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 香农芯创(300475) "分销+产品"一体两翼，企业级存储进展 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 2025 年 4 月 8 日 研究所 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:冯昱文 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100011 E研ma究il所:fengyuwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 近期研究报告 《4 月是否还会有"最后一跌"？ ——微盘股指数周报 20250406》 - 2025.04.07 《"924"以来融资资金防守后均见到 行情低点，仍关注科技配置机会—— 行业轮动周报 20250330》 - 2025.03.31 《英伟达召开 GTC 2025 大会， Skywork-R1V、混元 T1 等推理模型接 连上线——AI 动态汇总 20250324》 - 2025.03.25 《反转效应强势，GRU 模型新高——中 邮因子周报 20250323》 - 2025.03.24 《微盘领涨创下历史新高，4 月临近仍 有调整压力 ——微盘股指数周报 20250316》 - 2025.03.17 《小市值强势，动量风格依旧——中 邮因子周报 20250309》 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The dairy farming industry is cyclical, with the current round of milk price decline exceeding three years. The average price of fresh milk in major production areas has been in a downward trend since September 2021, dropping nearly 30% from its peak [2][30] - The industry is entering a capacity adjustment phase in 2023, with a more accelerated phase expected in 2025. The national dairy cow inventory is projected to decrease, with a potential balance point around 590 million heads [2][84] - Investment suggestions focus on large leading farms, as they are better positioned to withstand cyclical downturns and benefit from potential upturns [2][84] Summary by Sections Industry Introduction - Dairy cows are primarily Holstein cattle, which are known for their high milk production. The industry has evolved from traditional farming to modern, large-scale operations [8][13] Demand: Phase Adjustment, Market Potential - The demand for raw milk is relatively inelastic, but supply fluctuations are more pronounced. The consumption of dairy products has started to decline since 2022 due to various macroeconomic and demographic factors [20][36] - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is still significantly lower than the global average, indicating room for growth [39][42] Supply: Capacity Deconstruction at a Critical Moment - The milk production in China has seen a continuous increase from 2018 to 2023, but is expected to decline in 2024 due to oversupply and reduced demand [44] - The increase in dairy cow inventory from 2019 to 2023 was 1.77 million heads, a growth rate of 37.6%, while the average milk yield per cow increased from 7.4 tons to 9.4 tons [47] Market Structure: Dairy Enterprises Competing for Milk Sources - The concentration of dairy farms is high, with over 76% of farms having more than 100 cows. Major dairy companies have secured a significant portion of the milk supply through acquisitions and partnerships [75][76] - The pricing power of private farms is weak compared to corporate farms, leading to significant price disparities in raw milk purchases [80] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the dairy farming industry is approaching a stabilization phase, with potential for investment in large-scale farms that can better manage risks associated with cyclical downturns [84]

强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2585.26 | | | 52 | 周最高 | 2927.53 | | | 52 | 周最低 | 2110.64 | | | 行业相对指数表现 | | | | | 农林牧渔 | | | 沪深300 | -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 2024-04 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 行业投资评级 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《生猪供需博弈僵持，春季补栏助推 苗价超预期》 - 2025.03.31 农林牧渔行业报告 猪价窄幅偏强运行，苗价上涨结束 ⚫ 行情回顾：逆势上涨 市场调整明显，但在避险资金推动下，农业板块逆势上涨。农 林牧渔（申万）行业指数上涨 1.51%，在申万 31 个一级行业中涨幅 排名第 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 2025 年 4 月 7 日 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《宽松的货币政策择何时？》 - 2025.04.06 宏观研究 出口可能出现的变化及应对 核心观点 （1）美国对等关税对我国出口产生较为明显影响 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 直接效应：此次美国对等关税额外加征 34%税率，截至目前今年 累计加征关税幅度为 54%，假设其他条件不变，我国对美国出口增速 或回落 38.88%-49.68%，基本呈现断崖式下降。考虑我国对美国出口 在我国总出口中占比 15%左右，且假设我国对其他国家出口暂不发生 显著变化，则会导致我国出口增速回落 5.8-7.5 个百分点。鉴于需求 并非完全缺乏弹性，加征的关税并非完全转嫁给消费者，按照加征关 税税率等比例提高出口价格，或在一定程度上高估加征关税对我国出 口的影响。 间接效应：柬埔寨、越南、泰国、印度 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on strong performance and growth prospects [7][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 30.063 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.327 billion yuan, up 52.92% [4][5]. - The company’s international sales grew significantly, with overseas revenue accounting for over 45% of total revenue, reflecting a 20.05% year-on-year increase [5][6]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 22.50%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management and pricing strategies [5][6]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 34.617 billion yuan, 39.484 billion yuan, and 44.401 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.15%, 14.06%, and 12.45% respectively [7][10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.963 billion yuan, 2.511 billion yuan, and 3.048 billion yuan, with growth rates of 47.91%, 27.95%, and 21.37% respectively [7][10]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 11.93, 9.33, and 7.68, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [7][10].

证券研究报告：银行|点评报告 强于大市|首次评级 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4000.98 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 4048.07 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3132.76 | 2025 年 4 月 3 日 行业投资评级 研究所 分析师:钟双营 SAC 登记编号:S1340522080006 Email:zhongshuangying@cnpsec.com 对资本市场和投资者影响：一是对银行 ROE/EPS 小幅摊薄：定增对于三家国 有银行的盈利水平和股息收益率会带来小幅摊薄，中国银行/建设银行/交通银行 三家银行 ROE（加权）分别较定增前下降约 0.41pct/0.42pct/0.83pct 至 9.09%/10.27%/8.25% ， EPS 分 别 较 定 增 前 下 降 0.07/0.06/0.20 元 至 0.79/1.29/1.07 元。二是对银行投资价值短期有小幅负面影响，长期利多：短期 对股息率形成一定摊薄效应，以 2025/3/28 股息率测算，三家国有银行 A+H 股股 息率摊薄 0.1pct~0.9pct，摊薄后三家国有银行 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Jiangbolong (301308) [9] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in its enterprise-level storage business, with revenue reaching 922 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 666.30% [4] - The overall revenue for 2024 was 17.464 billion yuan, representing a 72.48% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 499 million yuan, up 160.24% [2][3] - The company has successfully launched multiple high-speed eSSD products and has adapted its products for compatibility with various domestic CPU platforms, enhancing its market presence [6][4] - The self-developed main control chips are expected to accelerate the company's long-term performance, with significant shipments anticipated in 2025 [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17.464 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 72.48% [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 499 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 160.24% [11] - The company’s expenses increased to 2.608 billion yuan, a rise of 64.40% compared to the previous year, primarily due to increased sales and management costs [3] Business Growth - The embedded storage, solid-state drives, mobile storage, and memory module businesses all experienced growth [3] - The enterprise-level storage business saw a notable increase, with revenue reaching 922 million yuan [4] - The Brazilian subsidiary Zilia achieved sales of 2.312 billion yuan, a 120.15% increase from 2023 [3] Product Development - The company has developed and successfully taped out its first batch of self-developed UFS main control chips, enhancing its product offerings [7] - The UFS storage products are expected to penetrate the high-end smart terminal market, with strong performance metrics compared to market competitors [7] Market Outlook - The demand for high-performance computing and storage hardware is expected to grow, driven by continuous investments from cloud service providers in AI hardware [8] - The storage price recovery trend is anticipated to gradually establish itself in the industry supply-demand dynamics, with a forecast of a low-to-high price pattern in 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company has pre-won an order for an information processing subsystem with a value of approximately 160 million yuan, which represents 97% of the company's audited revenue for 2023, providing clear support for performance [5][6] - The development of underwater offensive and defensive equipment is expected to accelerate due to increasing maritime security concerns, with the government emphasizing the need for enhanced capabilities in this area [6] - The integration of artificial intelligence with underwater acoustic equipment is ongoing, with the company developing high-performance computing platforms and data analysis equipment based on GPU chips [6] - The company is anticipated to reach a performance turning point in 2025, with projected revenues of 3.23 billion yuan if not considering one-off adjustments [7] - Forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are -17 million, 95 million, and 145 million yuan respectively, with significant growth rates of 89%, 658%, and 53% [7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price is 34.57 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 4.1 billion yuan [4] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 165 million yuan, with a projected increase to 371 million yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 125.23% [10] - The projected EBITDA for 2025 is 122.88 million yuan, with a net profit forecast of 95.09 million yuan [10] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be -240 in 2024 and 28 in 2026, indicating a significant turnaround in profitability [10][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The deep-sea industry is recognized for its vast resource potential and strategic importance, with significant government support anticipated for deep-sea technology development [3][16] - Deep-sea resources, particularly energy and mineral resources, are abundant, with deep-sea areas becoming major contributors to global oil and gas reserves [18][22] - The development of underwater technology and equipment has made significant progress, laying the foundation for deep-sea resource exploitation [35][50] Summary by Sections Section 1: Deep Sea as a Resource and Strategic Area - The deep sea, defined as waters below 200 meters, constitutes about two-thirds of the ocean floor and is rich in biological and mineral diversity [3][10] - China's total marine area is approximately 4.73 million square kilometers, with significant deep-sea regions in the South China Sea and East China Sea [12][16] - The government has prioritized deep-sea technology in its 2025 work report, indicating future policy support for this sector [16][18] Section 2: Civilian Sector - Breakthroughs in Underwater Technology and Resource Development - Underwater technology encompasses exploration, construction, oil and gas extraction, and mineral development, with recent advancements in various equipment [35][50] - The core sensor for deep-sea exploration is sonar, which is essential for environmental monitoring and resource assessment [37][39] - The development of underwater mining technology is progressing, with successful trials and increasing industrialization potential for oil, gas, and mineral resources [59][70] Section 3: Deep-Sea Warfare - Underwater Defense Capabilities - The deep sea offers a large, concealed operational space, making it strategically significant for military operations [74] - The underwater defense system includes both infrastructure and equipment, with a focus on unmanned systems for various military tasks [74][75] - There is an urgent need for China to enhance its underwater defense capabilities, with new technologies and equipment being introduced [74][75]