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钧达股份:电池盈利逐步修复,看好海外市场开拓-20250401
China Post Securities· 2025-04-01 10:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 9.95 billion yuan, down 46.7% year-on-year, and a net loss of 591 million yuan, down 172.5% year-on-year. However, the company is expected to benefit from an increase in overseas market share, which may help reduce losses in Q4 2024 [6][9]. - The company has improved its battery production efficiency and reduced costs, with a 0.5% increase in average conversion efficiency and a 30% reduction in non-silicon costs. The shipment of N-type batteries reached 31.0 GW, accounting for over 90% of total shipments, with a year-on-year increase of 50.6% [7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability, projecting revenues of 15.15 billion yuan, 17.03 billion yuan, and 21.15 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 970 million yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 1.80 billion yuan [9][12]. Financial Summary - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 50.27 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 11.5 billion yuan [5]. - The company’s average P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 12 times in 2025 to 6 times in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as profitability recovers [9][12]. - The company’s overseas sales proportion increased significantly from 4.69% in 2023 to 23.85% in 2024, with strong market positions in India, Turkey, and Europe [7].
创耀科技:机器人EtherCat通信芯片开启第二曲线-20250401
China Post Securities· 2025-04-01 01:05
证券研究报告:电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2024-04 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 -28% -20% -12% -4% 4% 12% 20% 28% 36% 44% 创耀科技 电子 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价(元) | 46.75 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股)1.12 | / 1.12 | | 总市值/流通市值(亿元)52 | / 52 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 55.71 / 26.18 | | 资产负债率(%) | 40.3% | | 市盈率 | 64.04 | | 第一大股东 | 重庆创睿盈企业管理有 | | 限公司 | | 机器人 EtherCat 通信芯片开启第二曲线 l 投资要点 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 创耀科技(688259) 工业机器人 EtherCat 通信芯片小批量出货。公司积极投入高速 工业总线 EtherCAT 从站控芯片的研 ...
信用周报:四川:关注产业挖掘的机会-2025-03-31
China Post Securities· 2025-03-31 14:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sichuan is a typical central province, with strong fiscal and economic strength but heavy debt burden and uneven debt distribution. It is the "ceiling" level in the second - tier central provinces. In 2024, its GDP was 64697 billion yuan, ranking fifth in the country, and its general budget revenue was 563.508 billion yuan, ranking seventh. The government - funded income was 376.097 billion yuan, ranking fourth. The government debt balance was 2402.89 billion yuan, and the stock of urban investment interest - bearing debt was 5534.208 billion yuan, ranking third in the country. [3][10] - The debt - resolution progress in Sichuan is in line with expectations. The provincial - level overall planning has strict control over non - standard debts, and many financial institutions have been mobilized. The issuance scale of special bonds is relatively large among non - key provinces. Except for some tail - end prefecture - level cities and some districts and counties in the third - ring area of Chengdu, the risks in other regions are not high. [4][11] - Sichuan offers many opportunities for industrial exploration. The industrial system is relatively complete, covering traditional and emerging strategic industries. There are two ideas for exploring industrial bonds: seeking "urban investment industrialization" opportunities and paying attention to short - term opportunities of well - performing private enterprises, especially listed ones. [5][12] - In the primary credit market this week (March 24 - 30, 2025), the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased, and the issuance interest rate generally showed a downward trend, while the issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds increased, and that of financial bonds also went up. [13][15][18] - In the secondary credit market this week, the yields of major grades and maturities of credit bonds generally declined, credit spreads narrowed, the term spreads of major grades showed a differentiated trend, and the valuation yields of major grades and maturities of urban investment bonds all declined. [20][26][37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Sichuan: Focus on Industrial Exploration Opportunities - **Economic and Debt Situation**: Sichuan is a central province with strong economic strength. In 2024, its GDP ranked fifth, general budget revenue ranked seventh, and government - funded income ranked fourth. However, it is a large bond - issuing province, with a government debt balance of 2402.89 billion yuan and a stock of urban investment interest - bearing debt of 5534.208 billion yuan, ranking third. Debt is mainly concentrated in Chengdu, and Mianyang also has a heavy debt burden. [3][10] - **Debt - Resolution Progress**: The province has rich financial resources and uses them freely. The control mechanism is mainly provincial - level unified management, but Chengdu is more strictly regulated. Many financial institutions have been mobilized. The issuance scale of special bonds is relatively large. The provincial - level overall planning strictly controls non - standard debts, and non - standard reduction is included in the assessment, but enterprises can use non - standard debts freely outside the rigid requirements. The bond roll - over in other prefecture - level cities is easier, while in Chengdu, it is more strictly compliant. [4][11] - **Development and Investment Opportunities**: Debt - resolution has little impact on regional construction. Sichuan has many industrial highlights, providing opportunities for industrial exploration. There are two ideas for exploring industrial bonds: "urban investment industrialization" and short - term opportunities of well - performing private enterprises. [5][12] 2. Credit Primary Tracking: Decrease in Issuance Scale and Issuance Interest Rate - **Issuance Scale**: From March 24 to 30, 2025, the overall issuance scale of the credit bond market was 292.243 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.147 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scale was - 35.812 billion yuan, a decrease of 69.689 billion yuan. The issuance scale of the urban investment sector decreased, while that of the second - tier perpetual bond sector increased. [13] - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills, 3 - year medium - term notes, and 5 - year medium - term notes decreased, while the issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds increased, and that of financial bonds also went up. [15][18] 3. Credit Secondary Changes: General Decline in Yields and Narrowing of Credit Spreads - **Yield Changes**: From March 24 to 30, 2025, the yields of major grades and maturities of credit bonds and urban investment bonds all declined, and they are at relatively low historical levels. [20][37] - **Credit Spread Changes**: The credit spreads of major grades and maturities of credit bonds narrowed, and they are at different historical quantiles. [26] - **Term Spread Changes**: The term spreads of major grades showed a differentiated trend, and the duration strategy still has no cost - effectiveness. [30]
生猪供需博弈僵持,春季补栏助推苗价超预期
China Post Securities· 2025-03-31 14:18
Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown resilience, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rising by 0.56%, ranking second among 31 primary industries [10][11] - The pig price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in 2025, with supply increasing and costs becoming a key competitive factor [3][17] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing a spring restocking trend, with chick prices rising, although high chick prices are causing some resistance among farmers [25] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index increased by 0.56%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which only rose by 0.01% [10] - The meat chicken breeding sector led the agricultural sector's performance due to high demand in the egg-laying chicken industry [11] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The national average pig price is 14.57 CNY/kg, down 0.24% from last week, while the average price for 15kg piglets is 502 CNY/head, up 10 CNY/head [2][14] - The supply of breeding sows has slightly increased, with a national breeding sow inventory of 40.66 million heads as of February 2025, showing a minor year-on-year increase [3][17] - Profitability for self-breeding pigs is around 52 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets incurs a loss of 27 CNY per head [15] White Feather Chicken - As of March 28, 2025, the price of white feather chicken chicks is 3.25 CNY/chick, up 0.15 CNY from last week, with an average profit of 0.5 CNY per chick [25] - The supply of white chicken breeding stock remains high, with a 17.25% year-on-year increase in the number of breeding stock updated in 2024 [25] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downwards, with white sugar priced at 6150 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY from the previous week [28] - The price of corn has risen to 2236 CNY/ton, up 9 CNY from last week, while soybean prices have slightly decreased [28]
芯朋微(688508):ACDC带动新品design-win
China Post Securities· 2025-03-31 11:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chipown Microelectronics (688508) [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 965 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 111 million yuan, with a significant increase of 87.18% [1][2] - The company focuses on the semiconductor energy sector, covering five key application areas: smart home appliances, power energy, smart terminals, industrial control, and AI computing, aiming to expand its market share among top customers [2] - Continuous investment in R&D is evident, with R&D expenses projected at 226 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 23.44% of revenue, and the launch of over 100 new products [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 965 million yuan, with a growth rate of 23.61%. The revenue from home appliance chips was 621 million yuan, up 28.73%, while standard power chips generated 174 million yuan, a 19.08% increase [2][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 111 million yuan, reflecting an 87.18% increase compared to the previous year [1][6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.16 billion yuan, 1.45 billion yuan, and 1.82 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 160 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 290 million yuan [4][6] R&D and Product Development - The company is committed to expanding its product lines and applications in downstream industries, with significant breakthroughs in new technologies and products, including high-voltage isolation half-bridge chips and digital controllers [3] - The focus on new product design and development is expected to enhance the company's growth in emerging fields such as renewable energy, robotics, and AI computing [3]
赤峰黄金(600988):24年报点评:受益金价上行,业绩释放有望持续
China Post Securities· 2025-03-31 10:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high performance in 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.764 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 119%. Revenue reached 9.026 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, and free cash flow surged by 279% to 1.749 billion yuan [3][10]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from rising gold prices, with projected gold production for 2025 estimated at 16.70 tons, alongside significant increases in other mineral outputs [6][10]. - Cost control measures have begun to show results, with the unit sales cost of gold decreasing to 278.08 yuan/g, a slight reduction from 280.20 yuan/g in 2023, indicating effective operational efficiency improvements [7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 21.64 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 40.5 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 36 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 47.3% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.22 [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.026 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.764 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 119%. The EBITDA for 2024 is projected at 4.204 billion yuan [12][15]. Production Capacity - The company successfully increased its gold production to 15.16 tons in 2024, a 5.6% increase year-on-year. Domestic mines contributed 3.91 tons, while overseas mines contributed 11.25 tons [4][6]. Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control strategies that have led to a decrease in the unit sales cost of gold. This was achieved through technological innovations and supply chain management improvements [7][9]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 2.874 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 62.89% for 2025, 16.65% for 2026, and 15.84% for 2027. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 14.08, 12.07, and 10.42 respectively [10][12].
国防军工行业报告:多家军工上市公司披露2024年年报,载人民用无人驾驶航空器首批OC证落地
China Post Securities· 2025-03-31 09:55
Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - As of March 30, among the 120 tracked defense industry listed companies, 30 have disclosed their 2024 annual reports, with 15 companies showing year-on-year growth in performance, and 6 companies reporting a net profit growth rate exceeding 20% [4][12] - The first batch of operational certificates for manned civil unmanned aerial vehicles has been issued, marking the beginning of the "manned era" in China's low-altitude economy [15] - The military industry is expected to see an inflection point in orders as the "Centenary of the Army Building Goals" enters its second half, with new technologies and products offering greater market flexibility [16] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The closing index is at 1475.47, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [2] 2. Company Performance - Notable companies with strong performance include: - China Shipbuilding Defense: Revenue of 194.02 billion, YoY growth of 20.17%, net profit of 3.77 billion, YoY growth of 684.86% [13] - Aerospace Intelligence: Revenue of 77.81 billion, YoY growth of 32.78%, net profit of 7.92 billion, YoY growth of 87.02% [13] - National Science Military Industry: Revenue of 12.04 billion, YoY growth of 15.78%, net profit of 1.99 billion, YoY growth of 41.25% [13] - Companies have set ambitious revenue targets for 2025, with China Aviation High-Tech aiming for a 14% increase and China Shipbuilding Defense targeting a 3% increase [14] 3. Investment Recommendations - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1. Aerospace and "gap-filling" focus: Companies include Feiliwa, Fenghuo Electronics, and others [17] 2. New technologies, products, and markets with greater flexibility: Companies include Aerospace Intelligence, National Science Military Industry, and others [17] 4. Market Performance - The military sector indices have shown a decline, with the China Securities Military Index down 3.42% and the Shenwan Military Index down 3.98% [18] - The top-performing stocks in the military sector this week include Aopu Optoelectronics (+17.38%) and Nairui Radar (+11.02%) [20] 5. Valuation Levels - As of March 28, 2025, the China Securities Military Index stands at 10635.56, with a PE-TTM valuation of 75.70 and a PB valuation of 3.38, both at historical mid-levels [22]
多家军工上市公司披露2024年年报,载人民用无人驾驶航空器首批OC证落地
China Post Securities· 2025-03-31 08:37
证券研究报告:国防军工|行业周报 2025 年 3 月 31 日 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 1475.47 | | 52 周最高 | 1712.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1113.62 | 行业相对指数表现 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中邮军工周报 3 月第 3 周:中国商飞 供应商大会成功召开,C919 规模化商运 有望加速》 - 2025.03.24 国防军工行业报告 多家军工上市公司披露 2024 年年报,载人民用无 人驾驶航空器首批 OC 证落地 ⚫ 投资要点 截至 3 月 30 日,我们跟踪的 120 家军工行业上市公司中,30 家 披露 2024 年年报,其中,15 家上市公司业绩同比增长,6 家上市公 司归母净利润同比增速在 20%以上。中船防务、航天智造、国科军工 以及航空产业链中的航亚科技、 ...
服务制造出海,跨境电商大步前行
China Post Securities· 2025-03-31 06:22
Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating [1] Core Insights - The global cross-border e-commerce penetration rate is increasing, with China's cross-border e-commerce exports experiencing rapid growth [5][6] - Cross-border e-commerce facilitates trade demand, with a continuously growing scale [8][11] - China's cross-border e-commerce started late but is growing quickly, supported by frequent policy initiatives that help various business models thrive [13][18] - Chinese manufacturing is expanding internationally, with cross-border e-commerce exports developing at a high speed [29][32] Summary by Sections Global Cross-Border E-Commerce Penetration and China's Export Growth - Cross-border e-commerce reduces trade chains and meets diverse consumer needs, leading to an expanding global scale and increasing penetration rates [8][11] - By 2024, global e-commerce revenue is expected to reach $6.3 trillion, with cross-border e-commerce projected to reach $1.98 trillion, maintaining over 20% growth [11][29] - China's cross-border e-commerce trade volume reached 16.85 trillion yuan in 2023, with exports accounting for 78.6% of this total [29][30] Cross-Border E-Commerce Industry Chain - The industry chain includes upstream suppliers and brand owners, midstream e-commerce platforms, and downstream consumer markets [34][36] - The number of cross-border e-commerce enterprises exceeded 120,000 by 2024, with B2B still holding over half of the market share, while B2C is rapidly growing [40][41] Cross-Border E-Commerce Logistics Processes and Business Forms - The logistics process involves various participants, including suppliers, platforms, and service providers, which streamline operations and enhance efficiency [36][44] Participants in Cross-Border E-Commerce Logistics - Major platforms include Amazon, TikTok Shop, and Temu, with Amazon remaining the leader in global cross-border e-commerce [44][50] - Social e-commerce is becoming a significant growth channel, with direct access and organic search being the primary traffic sources [46][50] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the evolving landscape of cross-border e-commerce presents numerous investment opportunities, particularly in logistics and platform development [5][34]
毛戈平:线上高增,复购率提升,保持高净利率-20250328
China Post Securities· 2025-03-28 12:28
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.885 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 34.6%, with a net profit of 881 million yuan, also showing a growth of 33.0% [4] - The company has demonstrated strong online growth, improved member repurchase rates, and maintained high net profit margins [5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected net profits of 1.201 billion yuan, 1.532 billion yuan, and 1.928 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 43x, 34x, and 27x [6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from cosmetics, skincare, and training was 2.3 billion yuan, 1.4 billion yuan, and 150 million yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 42%, 23%, and 46% [5] - The gross margin for the company in 2024 was 84.4%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to increased logistics costs [6] - The company plans to expand its store presence and has a total of 409 counters by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 25 counters [5] Revenue Projections - The projected revenue for the company is 5.212 billion yuan in 2025, 6.687 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.455 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 34.17%, 28.30%, and 26.43% respectively [8] - The expected EBITDA for the company is 1.533 billion yuan in 2025, 1.956 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.451 billion yuan in 2027 [8] Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin is projected to be 22.7% in 2024, with a slight increase in adjusted net profit margin to 23.8% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.45 yuan in 2025, 3.13 yuan in 2026, and 3.93 yuan in 2027 [8]