Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the financing leasing industry, reflecting a contraction in the sector since 2022 [3][12]. Core Insights - The financing leasing industry has been experiencing a decline in both the number of companies and business scale, attributed to stricter regulations and macroeconomic pressures [3][12]. - As of June 2024, the total number of financing leasing companies in China decreased to 8,671, a reduction of 180 companies compared to the end of 2023, primarily affecting foreign-funded leasing companies [3][4]. - The total balance of financing leasing contracts was approximately 56,060 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.60% from the end of 2023 [3][4]. - The average issuance interest rate for bonds by financing leasing companies in 2024 was 2.37%, down from 3.06% in 2023, indicating a significant reduction in financing costs [7][14]. - Regulatory policies are expected to unify, with an emphasis on supporting the real economy and promoting green financing initiatives [10][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview and Regulatory Policies - The financing leasing industry has faced a contraction since 2022, with a notable decrease in the number of companies and business scale due to regulatory tightening and economic challenges [3][12]. - The regulatory environment has shifted, with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission taking over the responsibilities for the operation and regulation of financing leasing companies [5][9]. Future Development - The financing leasing industry is anticipated to continue its slow growth into 2025, with increasing differentiation among companies and ongoing pressures for business transformation [12][14]. - There is a focus on enhancing service capabilities to the real economy, particularly in green financing, as regulatory bodies encourage financing leasing companies to innovate in this area [10][14].

联合资信 工商评级一部 冯磊 从跨国比较来看我国房地产市场容量 自 2022 年以来，我国房地产市场一直处于下行期。尽管自 2024 年四季 度以来，一线和强二线城市市场出现了不少积极的企稳迹象，但三四线城市 交易量仍未明显回升。 接下来的市场走势如何判断？要准确判断拐点是非常困难的事情，但我 们可以研究部分发达国家的房地产市场，以此为基础来判断我国房地产市场 的容量和周期内的高点和低谷。 我们选取了美国、日本和德国三个国家的房地产市场作为参照物，并通 过 2008 年金融危机之后的交易套数作为比较的基准。通过比较我们得出结 论，当 2040 年进入成熟期后，我国房地产市场容量可能为 200 多万套，具 体成交量在 100-300 万套之间波动。下行的驱动力主要来自人口数量及结构 的变化、商品房占比的下降、市场结构由新房为主向存量房为主的转变等。 受此影响，房地产企业也需要改变经营和财务战略，以适应新的行业发展。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 房地产行业经过了前几年的大起大落之后，目前好像又走到了分叉点。房企拿地 热情似乎有起色，部分城市房贷利率开始上调。虽然三四线城市成交还没有回升，但 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or companies involved in the "retirement from platform" initiative [3]. Core Insights - The "retirement from platform" initiative is driven by policy changes aimed at decoupling local government financing from city investment companies, mitigating hidden debt risks, and promoting market-oriented transformations [3][4]. - From 2021 to 2023, entities undergoing retirement from platforms have shown improvements in business transformation, with a notable increase in the proportion of non-city investment business revenue [3][13]. - The credit ratings of the retiring platform entities predominantly fall within the AA and AA+ categories, with a significant concentration of these entities at the county level [13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Overview - The retirement from platform initiative has undergone three main phases, including exits from the CBRC and the Ministry of Finance's city investment platform lists, driven by the need to break financing constraints and seize development opportunities [6][9]. - The initiative is a response to the central government's push to address hidden debt risks and facilitate the market-oriented transformation of city investment companies [6][12]. 2. Characteristics of Retiring Entities - Between August 2023 and February 2025, a total of 749 companies announced their retirement from platforms, with 572 being bond-issuing entities [14]. - The revenue structure of these entities has diversified, with the share of city investment business revenue decreasing from 31.69% in 2021 to 28.23% in 2023, indicating a shift towards more market-oriented operations [14][15]. 3. Regional Distribution - The majority of retiring entities are located in non-key provinces, with significant numbers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, while key provinces like Chongqing have also seen notable retirements [16][19]. 4. Impact on Government-Enterprise Relations - The relationship between retiring entities and local governments is expected to weaken gradually, although actual adjustments will depend on various factors including ownership structures and transformation progress [25][26]. - Despite the nominal separation, the influence of local governments on these entities remains significant in the short term [25][26]. 5. Credit Risk Implications - In the short term, the overall debt risk for retiring entities is manageable, but attention is needed for potential defaults among weaker entities [28][29]. - Long-term debt risks may vary regionally, with entities that successfully transition to market-oriented operations likely to see improved risk profiles [29]. 6. Future Development Directions - Retiring entities must establish modern corporate governance, achieve business transformation, and enhance cash flow independence to thrive post-retirement [30][31]. - The ability to issue new bonds and secure financing will depend on the successful implementation of market-oriented strategies and the reduction of reliance on government support [32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for financial holding companies, highlighting their increased activity in the bond market and improved credit ratings [1][31]. Core Insights - In 2024, financial holding companies significantly increased their bond issuance, with a total issuance scale of 6,415.90 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.92% [8][31]. - Central enterprise financial holding companies benefited from strong shareholder support and business resources, leading to higher credit ratings and larger issuance scales [1][31]. - Local financial holding companies also saw steady growth in issuance, primarily supported by local government backing, with credit ratings predominantly at AAA and AA+ [1][31]. - The overall bond financing was mainly used for refinancing maturing debts and supplementing liquidity, with a long-term bond structure that keeps short-term repayment pressure manageable [1][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Credit Status of Financial Holding Companies - As of the end of 2024, 76 financial holding companies were analyzed, with 72.37% holding AAA ratings [3][4]. - Five companies experienced credit rating changes, with three upgrades to AAA and one downgrade to AA+ [3][4]. 2. Bond Issuance Analysis - In 2024, 383 bonds were issued by the sample companies, with a total issuance scale of 6,415.90 billion, marking a 55.92% increase year-on-year [8][10]. - Central enterprise financial holding companies accounted for 46.58% of the issuance, while local financial holding companies made up 51.70% [8][10]. - The average issuance size for central, local, and other financial holding companies was 14.84 billion, 7.65 billion, and 6.10 billion, respectively [9][10]. 3. Central Enterprise Financial Holding Companies - Central enterprise financial holding companies issued 111 bonds totaling 1,646.90 billion, a 44.21% increase from the previous year [12][14]. - The bond types primarily included medium-term notes, corporate bonds, and short-term financing [12][14]. 4. Local Financial Holding Companies - Local financial holding companies issued 228 bonds totaling 1,833.00 billion, a 13.02% increase year-on-year [18][21]. - The issuance was diversified, with a significant portion coming from provincial-level companies [18][21]. 5. Other Financial Holding Companies - Other financial holding companies issued bonds totaling 61.00 billion, with a focus on corporate bonds and medium-term notes [23][24]. 6. Spread Analysis - The report indicates that the spread for central enterprise financial holding companies is generally low, with AAA-rated companies having spreads between 30BP and 50BP [25][26]. - Local financial holding companies' spreads align with their credit ratings, although some exhibit higher spreads due to regional economic weaknesses [28][29]. - Other financial holding companies have higher average spreads of 147.70BP, reflecting their weaker credit profiles [30].

联盟党赢得德国大选，未来仍 面临诸多挑战 联合资信 主权部 | 李为峰 2025 年 2 月 23 日，德国举行了第 21 届联邦议院选举。根据出口民调数据，基 督教民主联盟（CDU）和基督教社会联盟（CSU）组成的联盟党以约 29%的支持率处 于领先位置，联盟党总理候选人默茨随后宣布胜选，而极右翼的德国选择党（AfD） 则以约 20%的得票率成为为德国第二大党，德国现任总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨领导的中左 翼社会民主党（SPD）仅获得约 16%的得票。此次选举不仅决定德国国内政治的走向， 也将对欧洲乃至全球的政治格局产生深远影响。 尽管联盟党赢得选举，但未来组阁仍存在诸多变数，甚至可能出现"看守政府" 长期执政的状况 尽管联盟党赢得了选举，但其支持率仅为 29%，必须联合其他政党才能组建政府， 未来组阁仍存在诸多变数，两党或三党联合政府均有可能出现。 目前来看，联盟党与社民党或绿党组成联合政府的可能性较大。然而，无论联盟 党是与社民党还是绿党联合组阁，其合计支持率仍不足 50%，无法组建多数政府。更 为重要的是，社民党与联盟党在去监管、边境与非法移民、削减能源成本等重大议题 上存在较大分歧，绿党则在环保政策上与联盟 ...

（二〇二四年年报） 经济运行稳中有进 增长目标如期实现 主要经济指标情况 | 指标名称 | 2023 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | | GDP 当季值(万亿元) | 35.7 | 30.5 | 32.9 | 34.2 | 37.4 | | GDP 当季同比(%) | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | | 工业增加值增速(%) | 4.6 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | | 固定资产投资增速(%) | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 | | 房地产投资增速(%) | -9.6 | -9.5 | -10.1 | -10.1 | -10.6 | | 基建投资增速(%) | 5.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | | 制造业投资增速(%) | 6.5 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.2 | | 社零增速(%) | 7.2 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 3.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the copper industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and structural adjustments to enhance sustainability and profitability [2][3][12]. Core Insights - The copper industry is crucial for national economic development, with China being the largest consumer and producer of refined copper globally. However, the country faces significant challenges due to a lack of domestic copper resources and high dependence on imports [2][5]. - The "Copper Industry High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" aims to address these challenges by focusing on resource security, technological innovation, structural adjustments, and green transformation [6][11]. - The report highlights the need for copper mining and smelting enterprises to enhance resource self-sufficiency and technological capabilities, which will improve their bargaining power and sustainability [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Implementation Background - China is the largest refined copper producer, with a production of 13.64 million tons in 2024, accounting for 49% of global output. However, the country has only 4% of the world's proven copper reserves and a 94% dependence on imported copper concentrate [5][6]. - The processing fee for copper concentrates has dropped significantly, leading to increased pressure on domestic smelting enterprises [6][11]. 2. Main Content and Impact Analysis (1) Strengthening Raw Material Security - The plan emphasizes increasing domestic copper resource exploration and utilization, aiming for a 5%-10% increase in domestic copper resources by 2027 [8][9]. - It encourages mining enterprises to invest in exploration and technological innovation, particularly in low-grade and difficult-to-select resources [9]. (2) Promoting Structural Adjustment - The report calls for a shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement in copper smelting, with a focus on reducing blind capacity expansion [10][11]. - By controlling new smelting capacity, the plan aims to stabilize processing fees and improve the profitability of smelting enterprises [11]. (3) High-Quality Industry Development - The plan promotes innovation in the copper industry, including the establishment of innovation centers and the development of new materials and technologies [12][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of green and intelligent development, aiming for all copper smelting capacity in key pollution areas to meet A-level environmental performance by 2025 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the steel industry towards a focus on quality and efficiency, suggesting a positive outlook for leading steel enterprises while posing challenges for smaller firms [1][13]. Core Insights - The release of the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)" aims to transform the industry from "scale expansion" to "quality and efficiency" amidst challenges such as overcapacity, demand structure adjustments, and increasing environmental pressures [1][13]. - The introduction of a graded evaluation system and stricter environmental and energy efficiency standards is expected to reshape the competitive landscape, favoring larger firms with better resources and technology [8][10][12]. Policy Evolution - The report outlines the evolution of steel industry policies since the first release in 2010, highlighting the increasing emphasis on environmental protection and energy efficiency in response to industry challenges [3][4][5][6][7]. Key Changes in 2025 Edition - **Graded Evaluation**: The new system introduces a two-tier evaluation model for enterprises, distinguishing between "normative enterprises" and "leading normative enterprises," with specific indicators for each category [10]. - **Environmental Upgrades**: By 2026, all enterprises must complete ultra-low emission transformations, with energy efficiency benchmarks set for major production processes by the end of 2025 [11]. - **Mergers and Acquisitions**: The 2025 edition encourages mergers and acquisitions to enhance industry concentration and optimize the industrial layout [12]. Impact on Steel Enterprises - In the short term, compliance with the new standards will require significant capital investment in equipment and technology, potentially increasing operational costs and compressing profit margins [13]. - In the long term, meeting these standards is expected to improve production efficiency, reduce energy consumption, and enhance market competitiveness, ultimately leading to better profitability and sustainability for compliant enterprises [13].

2025 年全球信用风险八大展望 美国为保障自身"一超"世界地位而愈发强调"美国优先"，尤其是 2025 年特 朗普重返白宫将对美国两党之间的力量博弈以及全球政治格局产生较大影响。一方面， 特朗普政府以"降本增效"为名，精简美国国际开发署（USAID）、中情局（CIA）等 政府官僚机构，削减并优化财政支出，计划重组联邦机构等，在改善美国政府效率的 同时趁机削弱民主党的政治势力，进一步激化了两党间矛盾并增大其改革阻力，或将 导致美国的政治极化问题愈发严重。 另一方面，特朗普政府在对外关系上不延续民主党的团结欧盟及西方盟友一致施 压非盟友国家的传统多边联盟策略，而是倾向于以技术壁垒、贸易保护等手段为筹码 发展双边关系。这也意味着特朗普政府未来会更加聚焦于先进技术、美元地位、经济 发展等美国核心利益，大力抑制其他国家的追赶效应，背离多边主义并减少对不必要 国际事务的干预，比如，与欧盟在俄乌问题、加征关税、提高北约军费等方面矛盾重 重，对加拿大和墨西哥等传统贸易盟友加征关税，退出《巴黎协定》以及世界卫生组 织等，这些举措可能会加剧大国之间的摩擦并弱化现有国际规则和体系的运作。 欧洲各国民粹主义和政治碎片化问题愈演愈烈 ...