2025 年证券行业分析 联合资信 金融评级二部 |证券行业组 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、证券行业概况 2024 年，A 股沪深两市总体呈"先抑后扬"的格局，前三季度，股票市场指数 大幅波动，交投活跃程度同比有所下降，但受益于 9 月下旬国家经济利好政策的颁 布，三季度末股票指数快速上涨，单日股票交易成交额显著增长；2024 年四季度， 沪深两市成交额同、环比均大幅增长，交投活跃度显著上升，市场存量债券余额较 上年末有所增长，期末债券市场指数较上年末小幅上涨。 股票市场方面，2024 年，沪深两市股票市场指数先抑后扬，2 月初，上证指数触 及全年最低点 2635.09 点，随后在政策利好和资金面改善的推动下，市场出现了反弹， 9 月 24 日，在各监管部门一揽子政策的提振下，上证指数大幅上涨，一度达到年内 最高点 3674.40 点，单日股票交易成交额显著增长，根据沪深两市交易所公开披露数 据，2024 年四季度，沪深两市 A 股成交额 111.24 万亿元，同比增长 124.95%，环比 增长 157.53%，交投活跃程度大幅上升；从全年数据来看，2024 年沪深两市 A 股成 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the commercial factoring industry Core Insights - The commercial factoring industry in China has developed over ten years, with regulatory improvements leading to higher quality development [4][5] - The role of commercial factoring companies in asset securitization is crucial, as they provide financing and manage receivables, but their declining performance raises concerns about the impact on securities repayment [2][7] Industry Overview - The main business of commercial factoring companies involves the transfer of receivables from suppliers to these companies, which then provide financing and manage accounts [3] - As of 2021, the total business volume of commercial factoring in China was approximately 2.02 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 34.7% [5] - The number of commercial factoring companies has been decreasing, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration and quality development [5][6] Role in Asset Securitization Channel Business - In channel business, commercial factoring companies have a relatively weak role, focusing on the quality and legality of underlying assets [8][14] - The final repayment source for channel-type asset securitization products primarily relies on the willingness and credit level of the debtors [14] Non-Channel Business - Non-channel business requires thorough due diligence on the operational, financial, and compliance aspects of commercial factoring companies [15][16] - The quality of underlying assets in non-channel business is closely related to the operational and risk control systems of commercial factoring companies [19][21] Risk Mitigation Measures - For channel business, ensuring the authenticity and legality of asset transfers while avoiding fund collection through the factoring company's accounts is crucial [14] - In non-channel business, establishing separate accounts for receivables and implementing mechanisms to prevent fund misappropriation are essential [17][18]

2025 年以旧换新政策联合解读 20250109 摘要 Q&A 2024 年发改委和财政部发布的手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策具体内容是 什么？其对市场有何影响？ 2024 年 1 月 8 日，发改委和财政部发布了将手机、平板以及智能穿戴产品纳入 补贴范围的政策。根据该政策，补贴金额按售价的 15%计算，每人购买上限为一 部，单部产品售价上限为 6,000 元人民币。国内手机销量总盘约为 3.5 亿台，其 中售价超过 6,000 元的手机占比约 15%，因此 85%左右的手机都在补贴范围内。 • 2024 年，发改委和财政部推出手机、平板及智能穿戴产品补贴政策，补 贴金额达售价的 15%，最高 6,000 元/部，预计总补贴额在 500 亿至 1,000 亿元之间，刺激消费电子市场增长。 • 2024-2026 年，智能手机市场将进入 AI 大模型单侧运行阶段，AI 手机渗 透率持续提升，年复合增速可能超过 90%，利好相关供应链企业，尤其头 部安卓系及苹果系公司。 • 2025 年汽车以旧换新政策力度加大，范围更广，预计刺激效果强于 2024 年，乘用车报废更新量可能达 1,750 万辆，新能源汽车免征 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the housing storage business, driven by government policies, presents both opportunities and challenges for urban investment companies as they seek to transform and diversify their revenue streams [1][25]. - The report outlines the evolution of housing storage policies, which have progressed from exploration to pilot and now to comprehensive promotion, with significant financial support from the central bank and local governments [4][5]. - The housing storage initiative aims to alleviate inventory pressure in the real estate market while enhancing the supply of affordable housing, particularly targeting low- and middle-income groups [8][25]. Group 2 - The report identifies key characteristics of the current housing storage actions, including government leadership, broad coverage, market-oriented operations, diverse funding sources, and a focus on efficiency [8][9]. - It highlights the current status of urban investment companies in the housing storage business, noting that 69 cities have announced plans for such initiatives, primarily in first- and second-tier cities [11][12]. - Various operational models for housing storage are discussed, including direct acquisition of new homes, mergers and acquisitions, and innovative approaches like "old for new" and "rent-to-buy" schemes, each with distinct advantages and challenges [16][21]. Group 3 - The report analyzes the financial implications for urban investment companies engaging in housing storage, emphasizing the need for sound financial health and compliance with banking credit requirements to avoid hidden debts [18][19]. - It discusses the regional disparities in policy execution, noting that economically developed areas are more likely to successfully implement housing storage policies compared to regions with weaker fiscal conditions [27][30]. - The report concludes that while the housing storage policies offer significant opportunities for urban investment companies to enhance their asset portfolios and revenue streams, they also face challenges related to execution and market conditions [25][29].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies involved in housing storage business Core Insights - The housing storage business is gaining attention as a dual strategy to reduce inventory in the real estate market and improve the construction of affordable housing systems, primarily driven by government policies and local state-owned enterprises [1][3][5] - The current housing storage actions are characterized by government leadership, market-oriented operations, diverse funding sources, and a focus on efficiency [8][9] - The report highlights the urgent need for urban investment companies to transform their operations to reduce reliance on government cash flow and enhance sustainable development capabilities [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Rise and Development of Housing Storage - Housing storage refers to the acquisition of unsold residential properties by the government or state-owned enterprises for conversion into affordable housing or other public uses [3] - The concept emerged in 2008 during the global financial crisis and has resurfaced due to changing supply-demand dynamics in the real estate market [3] 2. Policy Evolution - The policy evolution of housing storage can be divided into exploration, pilot, and full promotion stages, with significant developments occurring in 2022 and 2023 [4][5] - In 2024, the People's Bank of China announced a 3000 billion yuan support plan for affordable housing, expanding the scope and scale of housing storage initiatives [5] 3. Characteristics of Current Housing Storage Actions - The current housing storage actions are government-led, cover a wide range, operate on market principles, and emphasize efficiency [8][9] - Local state-owned enterprises are the primary implementers of these policies, which aim to increase the supply of affordable housing and alleviate inventory pressure in the real estate market [8][9] 4. Current Status and Main Operation Models of Urban Investment Companies - As of 2024, 69 cities have announced housing storage plans, with significant participation from urban investment companies in major provinces [11][12] - The operation models include direct acquisition of new homes, mergers and acquisitions, and innovative approaches like "old for new" exchanges [16][18] 5. Opportunities and Challenges - Urban investment companies can leverage housing storage policies to activate land assets and access low-cost funding, enhancing their operational capacity and cash flow [25] - However, challenges include regional disparities in policy execution and financial constraints faced by urban investment companies, particularly in less developed areas [27][30]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment and its implications for various sectors, particularly focusing on fiscal and monetary policies in China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Data Vacuum Period**: The period from New Year's Day to the Two Sessions is characterized by a lack of economic data, necessitating attention to government meetings and policy directions, especially regarding economic growth targets [2][3][4] 2. **Fiscal and Financial Monitoring**: Key areas to monitor include the issuance of special bonds, long-term government bonds, and the debt situation of local state-owned enterprises, which directly impact fiscal spending and economic stabilization [2][4][5] 3. **Market Sentiment**: A significant drop in market trading volume from approximately 2.5 trillion yuan to 1.4 trillion yuan indicates weak investor sentiment and a preference for bonds over stocks [2][8] 4. **Government's Growth Commitment**: The government shows a strong commitment to stabilizing growth, particularly in low-price environments, while also needing to manage real estate risks, especially with significant debt maturities in April [2][9] 5. **Market Bottom Assessment**: Historical data suggests that the market bottom may be around 3,050 points, based on previous retracement levels and current trading volumes [10] 6. **Monetary Policy Expectations**: There is an expectation for potential interest rate cuts to address high real interest rates and low inflation, with a focus on easing monetary policy [11] 7. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: Short-term strategies should favor dividend stocks (e.g., banks, consumer goods), while mid to long-term investments should focus on consumer services and small-cap growth stocks [13] 8. **Bond Market Dynamics**: The bond market may experience capital gains as new funds enter, but risks exist if government bond issuance increases or if external shocks occur [15][16] 9. **Real Estate Market Impact**: Current interest rate reductions have not sufficiently stabilized housing prices in key urban areas, indicating a need for more significant rate cuts to support the real estate market [33][34] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Government Meetings**: High-level government meetings scheduled from January to March will outline key policies and economic targets, which are crucial for market expectations [3][6] 2. **Investment Planning**: The focus on infrastructure investment and specific provincial projects will significantly influence fixed asset investment performance [5][12] 3. **ETF Market Growth**: The anticipated growth in ETF products and their potential to inject new capital into the market is a positive sign for future investment opportunities [29][30] 4. **Sector Performance**: Recent market performance shows a decline across various sectors, with significant outflows from technology and financial sectors, indicating a shift in investor focus [22][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic landscape, fiscal and monetary policies, market sentiment, and investment strategies.

本次会议是面向方证证券的专业投资机构客户或收邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议根据监管规定会议不得交流敏感内幕信息未经方证证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人连接录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 各位投资者朋友晚上好欢迎参加方证研究所一月禁股电话会议我是方证策略首席分析师齐佳琦首先容我简要的介绍一下方证策略团队的新主要观点第一呢我们认为12月美联储放映呢不必过分惊慌美股美国股市和经济出现的复盘会将促使美联储整个一方面呢美联储围绕着股市去做预期管理市场上多上涨比较多的之后呢我们都能够看到 他会通过一些鹰派的发言打压乐观预期这是一个正常的操作同时目前美股已经出现了疲弱的信号我们预计美联储有可能在短期之内大概率去转戈另外一方面的历史经验也显示暂停降息的前提是经济保持韧性但是特朗普潜在的加征关税 削除移民包括削减投资等等都可能会导致美国经济不韧性不足同时迫使美联储降息 呃我们近期也观察到A股的风格呢从小盘成长阶段性切到了大盘红利上但是我们说主要的驱动因素可能都局限于短期啊美加利率雷池高位刚刚也提到了但是之后呢大概率会回落第 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call pertains to RGP, a professional services firm specializing in consulting, staffing, and outsourcing services. Key Financial Highlights - RGP reported a sequential revenue growth of over 6% in Q2, with total revenue reaching $145.6 million, a 5% increase over Q1 on a same-day constant currency basis [8][10] - Gross margin improved to 38.5%, a 200 basis point increase from Q1, driven by better pay-bill ratios and bench utilization [9][10] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $9.7 million, representing a margin of 6.6%, up from 1.7% in Q1 [10] - Year-over-year revenue was down 13% on an adjusted basis, an improvement from a 19% decline in the previous quarter [8][10] Segment Performance - Europe saw a sequential revenue increase of 18%, while Asia grew by 4%, contributing to an overall segment improvement of 10% [2] - The consulting segment, Veracity, grew by 10% in Q2, benefiting from improved bill rates and utilization metrics [2] - The on-demand segment revenue was slightly up from Q1 but down 27% year-over-year [10] - The outsourced services business remained flat sequentially but grew 4% year-over-year, adding 25 new clients [2] Technology and Operational Improvements - RGP implemented a new technology platform in North America, including Workday Financials and Salesforce, with 75% of the business now operating on this modern platform [2] - The technology modernization is expected to enhance efficiency and accelerate service delivery [2] Strategic Focus and Market Positioning - RGP aims to deliver diversified service offerings to clients, positioning itself as a trusted advisor rather than a one-off vendor [3][4] - The company emphasizes the importance of adaptability in service offerings to meet client needs during economic fluctuations [3] - The global professional services industry is projected to grow to $95 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 6% [4] Client Engagement and Market Trends - RGP is successfully engaging CFOs to introduce additional buyers within client environments, particularly for consulting services focused on transformations [5] - The firm is seeing increased demand in finance transformation, digital transformation, and supply chain modernization [18] Financial Health and Shareholder Returns - RGP maintains a strong balance sheet with $78 million in cash and no debt, generating $23 million in free cash flow over the past 12 months [11] - The company distributed $4.7 million in dividends in Q2, with a yield over 6% at the current stock price [11] - A stock buyback program was authorized, with $82 million remaining for repurchase [11] Outlook and Guidance - For Q3, RGP expects revenue between $127 million and $132 million, with a gross margin of 34% to 35% due to holiday impacts [12] - The company remains cautiously optimistic about the macroeconomic environment and its impact on the on-demand segment [6][12] Additional Insights - A non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $79.5 million was recorded in Q2 due to a drop in market capitalization [11] - The company is focused on cross-selling and optimizing pricing strategies to enhance operational efficiency [6][7] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting RGP's financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market outlook.

【行业研究】建筑施工行业研究报告 联合资信 2025 年 01 月 02 日 摘要 建筑业作为国民经济的支柱产业之一，行业周期性明显。受房地产投资持续 低迷影响，2024 年前三季度建筑业增速有所回落。 从需求端看，2024 年以来，房地产市场开发投资、销售和施工增速仍为负， 虽然国家持续出台刺激政策，但仍需关注相关政策未来发力强度和落地执行情况； 同期，基础设施建设增速同比小幅回升，总体保持相对平稳的增长态势。 2024 年前三季度，建筑施工企业经营活动和投资活动产生现金流量净额缺 口有所扩大，行业流动性压力加大；整体杠杆水平持续提升，中央企业和地方国 有企业杠杆水平有所企稳，民营企业杠杆水平有所下降；民营企业流动性紧缩趋 势愈发明显，需持续关注偿债指标明显弱化、资金链压力较为突出的尾部企业。 随着国家实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，建工行业流动性压力 或将有所缓解。 2024 年前三季度，中央国有企业发债主体数量及发债规模明显领先于其他 所有制企业且优势有所扩大，民营企业无债券发行，信用等级对信用利差表现出 较强的区分度。 联合资信认为，随着国家实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 房 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable credit rating outlook for the securities industry, with some companies experiencing upgrades in their credit ratings [4][15][16]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "New National Nine Articles" and the gradual implementation of the capital market "1+N" policy framework have significantly boosted market confidence, laying a foundation for the long-term stable development of the industry [2][5]. - In 2024, the capital replenishment of securities companies is expected to slow down due to market and regulatory policy influences, while M&A activities are anticipated to accelerate under policy incentives [3][33]. - The central economic work conference indicated that more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies will be implemented by 2025, which will help stabilize expectations across various industries and restore confidence [3][5]. Industry Credit Risk Review - The securities industry has seen a significant increase in regulatory penalties, with 399 penalties issued in 2024, marking a substantial rise compared to previous years [12][27]. - Despite the high frequency of penalties, no major risk events have impacted the credit ratings of securities companies [18][51]. Industry Policy Overview - The "New National Nine Articles" was released in April 2024, marking a significant policy shift aimed at enhancing the quality of listed companies and strengthening regulatory oversight [21][23]. - Various supporting regulations have been introduced to improve the overall regulatory framework, including stricter controls on IPO approvals and enhanced supervision of listed companies [21][23]. Securities Company Capital Replenishment - The capital replenishment of securities companies has been notably affected by the market and regulatory environment, with a slowdown in new capital raising activities [30][31]. - As of October 2024, several securities companies have received significant capital injections from shareholders, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen their financial positions [31]. M&A Activities in the Securities Industry - The report highlights a notable acceleration in M&A activities among securities companies in 2024, driven by favorable policy conditions [33][61]. - Several significant mergers have occurred, including major players consolidating to enhance their market positions [33][61]. Bond Issuance by Securities Companies - In the first nine months of 2024, securities companies issued a total of 403 debt financing instruments, with a total fundraising amount of 692.63 billion yuan, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [61][62]. - However, a surge in bond issuance was observed in the fourth quarter, with expectations for an overall increase in bond issuance in 2025 [36][61]. Industry Revenue Structure and Concentration - The report notes a 9.44% decline in revenue for securities companies in the first half of 2024, primarily due to reduced trading activity and a slowdown in IPO processes [67]. - The concentration of revenue remains high, with the top ten securities companies accounting for a significant portion of the industry's total revenue and profits [43][67].