Dong Ya Qi Huo

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锌产业周报-20250428
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 01:48
Core View - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global zinc sheet supply shortage and continuous reduction of LME inventory support zinc prices. Overseas low inventory combined with production cut expectations, the pattern of tight supply overseas and loose supply in China continues, and the spot premium rises [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The supply of zinc ore in China is abundant, the profit of smelters is restored, and the output of refined zinc increases month - on - month. The processing fee at the mine end rebounds, the supply of concentrates turns loose, and the weak downstream demand leads to slow inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Advice**: In the short term, SHFE zinc will maintain a volatile trend. Pay attention to the game between strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals and macro - sentiment [3]. Processing and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: The report presents the market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonality, and steel mill weekly output - seasonality of galvanized sheet coils, sourced from Wind [5]. - **Related Trade Data**: It also shows the seasonal data of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloy net imports, color - coated sheets (strips) net exports, and zinc oxide net exports [6][7][20]. - **Real Estate Data**: The report includes the cumulative year - on - year data of real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area, as well as the seasonal data of land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities [12][14][16]. - **Infrastructure Investment Data**: It shows the cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in different industries, sourced from Wind [17][18]. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Data**: The report presents the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract, the closing prices of LME zinc and SHFE zinc, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and US dollar index, LME term structure, and the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc [21][22][23]. - **Spot Data**: It shows the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations and the seasonal basis of Tianjin zinc ingots [29][30]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Supply Data**: The report includes the seasonal data of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, zinc concentrate TC, SMM zinc ingot monthly output, China's zinc ingot monthly output + import volume, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [33][36][37]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the production profit of refined zinc enterprises and the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates [36].
镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250428
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 01:47
Report Title - Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] Report Date - April 28, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Indonesia's nickel ore export quota approval is delayed, intensifying the short - term supply shortage expectation [3] - The demand for new energy vehicle batteries has rebounded month - on - month, supporting the sentiment repair of nickel prices [3] Bearish Factors - Domestic stainless steel mills continue to cut production, and the consumption of ferronickel further weakens [3] - The incremental return of Indonesian intermediate products is significant, and the cost support of nickel sulfate is loosening [3] Trading Consultation Viewpoint - With the interweaving of long and short factors, the wide - range fluctuation of nickel prices intensifies, and industrial customers can prioritize locking in raw material procurement risks [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest value of SHFE Nickel Main Contract is 125,800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 230 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.18% [4] - The latest value of SHFE Nickel Contract 1 is 125,800 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 220 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.17% [4] - The latest value of SHFE Nickel Contract 2 is 125,970 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 270 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.21% [4] - The latest value of SHFE Nickel Contract 3 is 126,170 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 170 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.21% [4] - The latest value of LME Nickel 3M is 15,880 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 285 dollars and a decrease rate of - 0.13% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The latest value of Stainless Steel Main Contract is 12,680 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0% [4] - The latest value of Stainless Steel Contract 1 is 12,680 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 110 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.86% [4] - The latest value of Stainless Steel Contract 2 is 12,725 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 110 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.86% [4] - The latest value of Stainless Steel Contract 3 is 12,760 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 115 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 0.89% [4] Other Data - The latest position volume is 66,380 lots, with an increase of 29,076 lots and an increase rate of 77.9% [4] - The latest trading volume is 167,402 lots, with an increase of 71,565 lots and an increase rate of 74.67% [4] - The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 24,800 tons, with a decrease of 520 tons and a decrease rate of - 2.05% [4] - The latest basis of the main contract is - 1,425 yuan/ton, with an increase of 595 yuan and a decrease rate of - 29.46% [4] - The latest domestic social inventory is 44,661 tons, with an increase of 701 tons [4] - The latest LME nickel inventory is 202,470 tons, with a decrease of 1,380 tons [4] - The latest stainless steel social inventory is 985.8 thousand tons, with a decrease of 13.6 thousand tons [6] - The latest ferronickel inventory is 24,173.5 thousand tons, with an increase of 3,690.5 thousand tons [6]
饲料养殖日报-20250425
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 12:29
饲料养殖日报 2025/04/25 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z000220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、 结论和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发 出通知的情形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不能依 靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可, 任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东亚期 货",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任 ...
油脂油料产业日报-20250425
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 12:07
.. 油脂油料产业日报 2025/04/25 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可,任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东 亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保 ...
软商品日报-20250425
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 12:07
Report Title - Soft Commodity Daily Report dated April 25, 2025 [1] Sugar Report Market Conditions - As of April 23, the number of ships waiting to transport sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 44 from 42 last week, with the volume of sugar waiting to be transported rising to 1.8711 million tons from 1.6935 million tons last week. Brazil exported 759,200 tons of sugar in the first three weeks of April, with a daily average export of 58,400 tons, a 32% decrease compared to the daily average export in April last year. Unica data showed that the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 456,000 tons of sugarcane in late March, a 10% year-on-year decrease, and produced 201,000 tons of sugar, a 10% year-on-year increase. In March 2025, China imported 132,800 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 24,600 tons. An ISMA member said that India's 24/25 sugar season may export 600,000 - 700,000 tons of sugar [3] Futures Prices and Spreads - On April 25, 2025, SR01 closed at 5,832, down 0.03% daily and up 0.92% weekly; SR03 closed at 5,803, up 0.05% daily and 0.99% weekly; SR05 closed at 6,175, up 0.52% daily and 0.78% weekly; SR07 closed at 6,026, up 0.5% daily and 0.3% weekly; SR09 closed at 5,974, up 0.49% daily and 0.37% weekly; SR11 closed at 5,889, up 0.34% daily and 0.70% weekly. The SB closed at 17.85, down 0.28% daily and up 0.45% weekly, and W closed at 504.8, up 0.36% daily and 1.24% weekly [4] Basis and Import Prices - On April 25, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 378, up 2 daily and down 13 weekly; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 158, up 12 daily and down 23 weekly. The quota - in price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4,955, up 85 daily and down 73 weekly, and the quota - out price was 6,311, up 111 daily and down 95 weekly. The quota - in price of Thai sugar imports was 4,928, up 85 daily and down 64 weekly, and the quota - out price was 6,276, up 111 daily and down 83 weekly [10][13] Cotton Report Market Conditions - As of April 23, 2025, the national notarized inspection volume of cotton in the 24/25 season was 6.7932 million tons. As of mid - April, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.5152 million tons, a decrease of 324,400 tons compared to the end of March, and the industrial inventory was 954,300 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the end of March. The sowing of new cotton in Xinjiang's 25/26 season is nearing completion, and cotton fields in southern Xinjiang are gradually emerging. Recently, there were strong winds and sandstorms in some areas of Aksu. Although the current time is early and new cotton can be replanted, it is expected that there may be short - term strong winds in some production areas in early May. The downstream "Golden March and Silver April" peak season is coming to an end. Since April, the overall orders of gauze factories have weakened, and export orders are affected by tariffs. Currently, finished products are slightly accumulating, and textile enterprises maintain low - price restocking, with no significant decline in the operating rate [15] Futures Prices and Spreads - On April 25, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 13,225, down 5 and 0.04%; Cotton 05 closed at 12,725, down 10 and 0.08%; Cotton 09 closed at 12,990, unchanged. Yarn 01 closed at 19,215, up 60 and 0.31%; Yarn 05 closed at 19,005, up 5 and 0.03%; Yarn 09 closed at 18,945, up 5 and 0.03%. The cotton basis was 1,234, up 36; the spread between Cotton 01 and 05 was 500, up 5; the spread between Cotton 05 and 09 was - 265, down 10; the spread between Cotton 09 and 01 was - 235, up 5; the spread between cotton and yarn was 5,960, down 60; the spread between domestic and foreign cotton was 178, down 277; the spread between domestic and foreign yarn was - 1,039, unchanged [16][17][19] Apple Report Market Conditions - In the production areas, the replenishment enthusiasm of merchants is fair, with transactions mainly for ordinary goods. The sales of high - and low - end goods are average. The trading enthusiasm in Shandong's cold storage has increased, and in Shaanxi, the trading is mainly for northern Shaanxi goods. In Gansu, transactions have increased and sales have improved. In the sales areas, the arrival of goods has increased, there is no backlog in transit warehouses, and the overall purchase in the market is stable with a slight increase, mainly for low - priced goods. As of April 16, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the national main production areas was 3.5456 million tons, a decrease of 440,600 tons compared to last week, and the inventory reduction is accelerating year - on - year, at a five - year low [28] Futures and Spot Prices - On April 25, 2025, AP01 closed at 7,892, up 1.83% daily and 4.57% weekly; AP03 closed at 7,829, up 2.34% daily and 3.7% weekly; AP04 closed at 7,858, up 2.92% daily and 3.94% weekly; AP05 closed at 7,946, down 0.9% daily and up 0.20% weekly; AP10 closed at 8,086, up 1.9% daily and 5.37% weekly; AP11 closed at 7,890, up 1.79% daily and 4.78% weekly; AP12 closed at 7,888, up 1.87% daily and 4.52% weekly. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4.1, unchanged daily and up 1% weekly; the price of Luochuan semi - commodity 70 apples was 4.3, unchanged daily and weekly; the price of Jingning paper - bagged 75 apples was 4.8, up 2.13% daily and 4.35% weekly; the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 apples was 2.3, unchanged daily and weekly; the price of Wanrong paper - plus - film 75 apples was 2.8, up 3.7% daily and weekly [29][33] Jujube Report Market Conditions - The overall jujube price is stable, and the price of high - quality goods is firm. Currently, the downstream consumption has entered the off - season, and merchants mainly replenish inventory for刚需, with average purchase enthusiasm. With the increase in cold storage storage fees this year, holders have a price - holding sentiment and there are few price - concession phenomena, so the price remains stable for now [41]
贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250425
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 12:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Precious Metals - The intraday trend of Shanghai gold futures showed a volatile decline. The Fed's Beige Book repeatedly mentioned tariff risks, suppressing market sentiment, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakened the attractiveness of gold. However, the medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, as global central bank gold - buying demand and geopolitical uncertainties still support the gold price [3]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may still rise slightly, but the upward space is limited. Policy stability, seasonal decline in domestic inventories, low refined - scrap spreads, and the relationship between current positions and previous prices all suggest a small upside potential [14]. Zinc - Domestic zinc ingot inventories continued to decline. Although cost - side support weakened, demand - side performance was mixed, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the US dollar index affected market sentiment. Overseas mine accidents and the closure of the import window limited the downside space for zinc prices [35]. Aluminum & Alumina - For aluminum, overseas macro conditions are bearish, and although aluminum ingots are de - stocking, global demand may weaken after mid - April. For alumina, supply has decreased due to factory overhauls, but it is difficult to say that the trend has reversed due to factors such as supply surplus and large warehouse - receipt pressure [46]. Nickel - The fundamentals of the nickel industry have shown little recent change. Nickel - iron prices have stabilized, but stainless - steel demand remains weak. The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, and Indonesia's new energy plan may affect the industry. The market sentiment has eased, but macro - level disturbances need attention [66]. Tin - Tin prices have been significantly affected by macro and fundamental factors recently, experiencing a sharp decline and then a quick recovery, and stabilizing on April 11. Although price volatility is decreasing, the impact of macro events on tin prices cannot be ruled out [81]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are temporarily stable. The market is dull, and the impact of tariffs on the lithium - carbonate industry chain may suppress long - term demand [93]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices continue to decline slightly, and the market is in a weak adjustment phase. In the long term, the market has over - capacity and high social inventories [103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Trend**: Shanghai gold futures showed a volatile decline, and the COMEX gold price and related ratios are presented in the figures [3][4]. - **Influencing Factors**: Tariff risks, the US dollar index, global central bank gold - buying demand, and geopolitical uncertainties affect the gold price [3]. Copper - **Price Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper and London copper futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are provided. The latest prices of copper spot in different regions and their changes are also given [15][20]. - **Influencing Factors**: Policy stability, domestic inventory changes, refined - scrap spreads, and position - price relationships affect copper prices [14]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai zinc and London zinc futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are shown. The latest prices of zinc spot and related spreads are also presented [36][40]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai zinc and London zinc, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [42]. - **Influencing Factors**: Inventory changes, cost - side factors, demand - side performance, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index affect zinc prices [35]. Aluminum & Alumina - **Price Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are given. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina spot and related spreads are also presented [47][54]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, and alumina, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [61]. - **Influencing Factors**: Overseas macro conditions, supply - demand relationships, and factory overhauls affect aluminum and alumina prices [46]. Nickel - **Price Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai nickel and London nickel futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are shown. The latest prices of nickel spot and related spreads are also presented [67][71]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai nickel and related downstream products, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [67]. - **Influencing Factors**: Fundamentals, stainless - steel demand, Indonesia's new energy plan, and macro - level disturbances affect nickel prices [66]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin and London tin futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are given. The latest prices of tin spot and related spreads are also presented [82][86]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of Shanghai tin and London tin, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [88]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro events, mine operations, and tariff policies affect tin prices [81]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest prices of lithium - carbonate futures, along with their daily, weekly changes, and percentage changes, are shown. The latest prices of lithium - related spot and related spreads are also presented [93][98]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of lithium carbonate, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [101]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market conditions, trade policies, and downstream demand affect lithium - carbonate prices [93]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: The latest prices of industrial - silicon spot in different regions and their changes are given. The latest prices of industrial - silicon futures, along with their daily changes and percentage changes, are also presented [104][105]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of industrial silicon, including changes and percentage changes, are provided [124]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply - side price concessions, over - capacity, and high social inventories affect industrial - silicon prices [103].
黑色产业链日报-20250425
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-04-25 12:07
黑色产业链日报 2025/4/25 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可,任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东 亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...
能化产品周报:烧碱-20250421
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 07:06
交易咨询业务:沪证监许可【2012】 1515号 能化产品周报—烧碱 2025年4月21日 研究员: 屠越海 执业编号:Z0019382 审核:唐韵Z0002422 http://www.eafutures.com 免责声明:本报告的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证,也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考, 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价,投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址:上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 基本面要点: 价格:4 月 18 日,烧碱主力合约(SH2505)收盘报 2462元 / 吨,较前一交易日上涨0.08%。现货市场山东:山东 32% 离子膜碱周均 819 元 / 吨, 环比下降 4.88%,山东 32% 离子膜碱的折百价是 2559.375 元 / 吨。50% 离子膜碱的折百价是 2780 元 / 吨。江苏:江苏地区 32% 液碱折百价 为 2687.5 元 / 吨。 供给:本周烧碱企业产能平均利用率为 82.3%,较上周环比下降 1.5%。 ...