黑色产业链日报 2026/01/13 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

铝产业周报 2026/01/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z0023138 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

锌产业周报 2026/1/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z002313 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Indonesia's production cut plan: Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production by 34%, leading to expectations of supply tightening and stimulating a rebound and limit - up in futures prices [3] - Recovery in stainless steel demand: The strong performance of stainless steel mill prices, along with the recovery of terminal demand, supports the upward space for nickel prices despite high inventory costs [3] Bearish Factors - Strong US dollar: The continuous strengthening of the US dollar index reduces the pricing competitiveness of commodities and suppresses the price performance of non - ferrous metals [3] - High inventory: Global nickel inventories continue to accumulate, especially the high level of visible inventories, weakening market concerns about supply - demand tightness [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Although Indonesia's policy stimulus boosts expectations, the improvement in fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the actual implementation of policies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 139,090 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 710 yuan and a weekly decline of 0.51%. Other contracts like Shanghai nickel continuous one, two, and three have different price changes and percentage increases. LME nickel 3M is at 17,700 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 410 dollars and a 3.60% increase [4] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The main contract of stainless steel is at 13,860 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 465 yuan and a 3% increase. Other contracts also show price increases. The trading volume and open interest have significant increases [5] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel have all decreased by 7,150 yuan/ton, with percentage declines ranging from 4.67% to 4.96% [5] - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 61,046 tons, an increase of 2,126 tons; LME nickel inventory is 284,790 tons, an increase of 8,490 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 854,600 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [7] Supply - Side Information - **Primary Nickel Supply**: Information on China's refined nickel monthly production, primary nickel monthly total supply including imports shows seasonal trends [13] - **Upstream Nickel Ore**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory, and the prices of different types of nickel pig iron (such as 8 - 12% and Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron) are presented with historical data [16][18] - **Nickel Iron Production**: China and Indonesia's nickel iron monthly production shows seasonal patterns [19][20] Downstream Information - **Nickel Sulfate**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel, production profit margins, monthly production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors are all presented with historical data [22][24][25] - **Stainless Steel**: The profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production, and inventory show seasonal trends [28][30][31]

基本面： 1、委内瑞拉局势——①美对委发起"三小时闪电战"，代号"绝对决心"。②委副总统代行总统职权。③特朗普威胁委代理总统，还称 "绝对需要格陵兰岛"。消息人士：5000万桶只是首批，委内瑞拉将无限期向美供油，白宫计划削减对其制裁。2、白宫：特朗普谋划获 取格陵兰岛的方案，美军开路是可行选项。以英国和德国为首的部分欧洲国家正在讨论在格陵兰岛建立军事存在的计划。格陵兰岛各政 党领导人："格陵兰人不想成为美国人"。3、美国至1月3日当周初请失业金人数录得20.8万人，低于预期的21万人，前值由19.9万人修 正为20万人。4、非农报告—①美国12月季调后非农就业人口增加5万人，美国10月和11月非农就业人数合计下修7.6万人，12月失业率录 得4.4%；2025年，非农就业人数增加了58.4万人 2、白银AG 观点：贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄 金仓单有相对显著的上升，而美国黄金仓单有相对显著的下降；国内外白银仓单骤降 贵金属期货 周报—2026-1-12 1、黄金AU 观点： 贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；美元中期 ...

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - Bullish factors for the 10-year Treasury bond last week include the recovery of allocation demand due to alleviated concerns about ultra-long-term supply and increased institutional allocation willingness, and a loose funding environment with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, leading to downward pressure on interest rates [2] - Bearish factors are the weak expectation of monetary easing as the Fed's rate cut expectation lacks strong fundamental support in the short term, and the pressure from the stock-bond seesaw, with capital preference for the bond market causing selling pressure on the stock market and yield fluctuations [2] - The trading advisory view is that the bond market sentiment was generally cautious last week. It is recommended to focus on the allocation window brought by the widening of spreads, buy configuration-type contracts on dips, maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and avoid unilateral chasing [2] Group 2: Data Presentations Yields - The document presents the historical data of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024 to 2025 [3] Funding Rates - It shows the historical data of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit-taking institutions for 1-day and 7-day tenors and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 2023 to 2025 [3] Term Spreads - The historical data of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024 to 2025 are presented [4] Futures Basis - The historical data of the basis of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures' current-quarter contracts are shown [7][8][9][15] Futures Inter - Delivery Spreads - The historical data of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures are presented [11][13][16] Futures Trading Volume - The historical trading volume data of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures from 2015 to 2025 are shown [14] Futures Cross - Product Spreads - The historical data of the cross - product spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL are presented [17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of soymeal remains loose, with sufficient imported soybeans, stable production, and high inventory, while demand is in a seasonal slump and external factors exert long - term downward pressure on prices [2] - Rapeseed meal supply is currently tight but may face increased pressure in the long - term due to potential policy changes, and demand is weak in the winter [3] - For cooking oils, different oils have different supply - demand situations and are affected by various factors such as production, inventory, consumption, and policies [37][38][39] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soymeal - **Supply**: Imported soybean arrivals are sufficient (6 million tons expected in January), oil mill operating rates are around 54%, production is stable, and inventory, though decreasing for two consecutive weeks, remains at a historically high level (1.05 million tons) [2] - **Demand**: Downstream feed enterprises have high inventory (physical inventory up 55% year - on - year), and pig farming losses suppress procurement enthusiasm. Demand is in a seasonal slump, and purchases are mainly made on a need - to - use basis [2] - **External Factors**: The expected high yield of South American soybeans (Brazil's production is expected to be 177 million tons) suppresses US soybean prices, reducing domestic import costs and exerting long - term downward pressure on soymeal [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a historical low (coastal oil mill inventory is close to zero), and crushing volume has stagnated for 6 consecutive weeks. It currently relies on port granular rapeseed meal inventory (474,200 tons), but delayed Australian rapeseed arrivals have led to a tight supply [3] - **Demand**: Aquaculture is in a winter slump, with daily提货量 only in the hundreds of tons, and the demand for poultry feed addition is limited. The widening price difference between soymeal and rapeseed meal weakens the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal [3] - **Policy Variables**: The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has raised expectations of a loosening of rapeseed import policies. If anti - dumping tax adjustments are implemented, long - term supply pressure will increase significantly, suppressing price flexibility [3] Cooking Oils Soybean Oil - **Supply**: The weekly output of imported soybean crushing remains high, and soybean oil output is stable. However, inventory has been decreasing, and pre - Spring Festival stocking supports the spot market [37] - **Demand**: Catering consumption is gradually recovering, and purchases of small - packaged oils are increasing, but terminal stocking efforts are lower than expected, and the spot market remains strong [37] - **External Linkage**: Crude oil may have a certain impact [37] Palm Oil - **Supply**: Malaysia's inventory reached 2.835 million tons in December, a five - year high, and domestic port inventory has also increased to 765,000 tons, indicating significant supply pressure [38] - **Demand**: The recovery of domestic catering consumption has driven edible demand, and the biodiesel blending policy supports industrial demand, but high inventory suppresses price flexibility [38] - **Policy Game**: Indonesia plans to raise the export tax from 10% to 15%, and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan is uncertain [38] Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: Domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased by 48% year - on - year (2.97 million tons accumulated in 2025), and rapeseed oil production has decreased significantly. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed imports (estimated at 300,000 - 400,000 tons) will ease the raw material shortage, and long - term supply is expected to be loose [39] - **Demand**: Pre - Spring Festival stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices suppress procurement enthusiasm, the basis has declined, and the spot market is weakening [39] - **Policy Impact**: Expectations of improved China - Canada trade relations are rising. If Canadian rapeseed imports resume, it will further suppress the premium of rapeseed oil, and prices will face long - term downward pressure [39]

基本面信息1：AI、国防及新能源领域推动全球铜需求增长，高盛上调2026年铜价预期，供需缺口持续扩大。 基本面信息2：铜矿加工费回落，冶炼商亏损扩大，矿企产量同比转降，资源短缺从预期转向现实。 基本面信息3：SMM社库周增1.96万吨至27.38万吨，累库压力抑制现货表现。 基本面信息4：铜价高位运行压制下游采购，终端订单放缓，精废价差维持4401元/吨，废铜替代优势明显。 观点：短期受资金获利离场和累库拖累，铜价承压回调，中期AI与能源转型需求逻辑未改，调整后或延续偏强格局。 铜期货盘面数据（周度） | 盘面数据 | 最新价 | 周涨跌 | 持仓 | 持仓周涨跌 | 成交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力 | 101410 | 3.23% | 188674 | -19572 | 303818 | | 沪铜指数加权 | 101451 | 3.20% | 617743 | -41184 | 594678 | | 国际铜 | 90150 | 2.59% | 7403 | 189 | 15155 | | LME铜3个月 | 12702 | 1.64% | ...

黑色产业链日报 2026/01/09 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

软商品日报 2026/01/09 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...