Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Iron water production increased month-on-month, port inventories decreased, and steel mill inventories increased month-on-month. Iron water production has recovered to the pre-environmental restriction high. Coupled with the pre-holiday restocking expectation, the fundamentals of iron ore still have support. The Iron Ore 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. Price and Spread - **Price**: The report presents price trends of various iron ore products such as iron ore index, lowest deliverable product converted to futures price, Platts Index (58%, 62%, 65%), Qingdao Port iron ore powders (65% Carajás fines, 61.5% PB fines, 56.5% Super Special fines), Hebei Qian'an 66% iron concentrate powder, scrap steel index, Shandong Yishui 62% pellet ore, and Qingdao Port 62.5% PB lump ore from 2016 to 2025 [14][18][20] - **Spread**: It shows the spreads between different iron ore contracts (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), high - medium grade spread (Platts 65% - 62%), 65% pellet premium, 62.5% lump ore premium, medium - low grade spread (Platts 62% - 58%), high - low grade spread (Platts 65% - 58%), index basis rate, basis of different contracts (01, 05, 09), hot - rolled coil index profit on the futures market, weighted average profit of five major steel products in Hebei and East China, rebar index profit on the futures market, and the spread between scrap steel and hot metal in North and East China from 2016 to 2025 [32][43][57] 2. Supply - **Domestic Production**: From January to August, the cumulative output of domestic raw ore was 67,810,420 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. The national 266 mines' capacity utilization rate and daily output of iron concentrate powder are also presented from 2017 to 2025 [9][87] - **Imports**: In August, China imported 105.22 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%. From January to August, the cumulative import was 801.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.64%. The report also shows monthly import volume, cumulative import volume, and their year - on - year changes from 2019 to 2025. The weekly shipping volume from Australia and Brazil, weekly arrivals at 26 and 45 ports, BDI index, BCI index, and shipping freight rates from Western Australia to Qingdao and Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao are also included [9][66][73] 3. Demand - **Production - related Demand**: The national 45 - port average daily ore handling volume and 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal production are presented from 2018 to 2025. The report also shows the cumulative and monthly output of pig iron from the National Bureau of Statistics, and their year - on - year changes from 2020 to 2025 [94][89] - **Consumption - related Demand**: It includes the daily consumption of domestic and imported iron ore powders by 64 steel mills, import ore sintering ratio, sinter ore charging grade, sinter ore, pellet ore, and lump ore charging ratios, 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate, blast furnace operating rate, and profitability rate from 2017 to 2025 [101][104][107] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The report shows the total inventory, trade ore inventory, non - Australian and Brazilian ore inventory, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, coarse powder inventory, lump ore inventory, pellet ore inventory, and inventory days at 45 ports from 2017 to 2025 [111][113][115] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: It includes the total imported ore inventory, imported ore inventory days of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of imported and domestic iron ore powders of 64 steel mills from 2020 to 2025. The iron concentrate powder inventory of 266 mines from 2019 to 2025 is also presented [126][128][130]

Report Title - Black Series Weekly Report - Steel Products, dated September 19, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This period saw a decrease in production and inventory and an increase in apparent demand for rebar; for hot-rolled coils, production and inventory increased while apparent demand decreased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Rebar inventory is being depleted, and the pressure may be relieved. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar. The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated, and the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract also fluctuated [5] Summary by Directory 1. Macro - Not provided in the document 2. Supply - In August, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel products, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with the growth rate falling by 25.5 percentage points from the previous month. From January to August, China exported 77.49 million tons of steel products, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, with the growth rate falling by 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [7] - The pig iron output was 2.4102 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.047 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.1719 million tons [7] - The output of the five major steel products was 8.5546 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.0178 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.4744 million tons. Rebar production was 2.0645 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.0548 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.1222 million tons; hot-rolled coil production was 3.2649 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0135 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.2521 million tons [7] - The EAF operating rate was 70.63%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.29% [7] 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.1974 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0513 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.3751 million tons. Rebar inventory was 6.5028 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.0358 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.8482 million tons; hot-rolled coil inventory was 3.7799 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0467 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 0.4374 million tons [7] 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.5033 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.07 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.0583 million tons [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market was previously driven by macro factors, but currently, the macro - driving force has weakened in the short term, and the fundamentals have not formed an upward drive. After digesting the short - term impact of the Fed's less - than - expected interest rate cut, the steel futures market may turn to a volatile consolidation. The iron ore market has limited price fluctuations, and the price is expected to move in a range. The coal - coke market may see an improvement in the supply - demand structure before the National Day, but the high supply of steel will suppress the rebound height of coal - coke prices. The ferroalloy market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the supply - demand pressure may weaken. The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the high inventory of the upper - middle reaches restricts the price. The glass market lacks a clear trend and trading logic due to high inventory and weak demand, and the supply - demand pattern of near - term supply exceeding demand remains unchanged [3][20][33][51][62][88]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut was less than expected, and the market risk preference may be adjusted in the short term. Among the five major steel products, only rebar showed a situation of reduced supply, increased demand, and inventory turning from increase to decrease. The overall steel market is still in the inventory accumulation channel, but the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down, and there is a replenishment expectation before the National Day [3]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts on September 19 and 18, 2025, as well as the corresponding month - spreads, basis, and spot prices [4][7][10]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The contradiction in the iron ore market is not significant, and the price fluctuation has narrowed. The supply has recovered to a medium - high level, and the overall demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills. The profit of steel mills has declined marginally, and the downstream steel demand is average, with inventory accumulation but a slowdown in the inventory accumulation slope [20]. - **Price and Fundamental Data**: Presented the price data of iron ore futures contracts, basis, and spot prices, as well as fundamental data such as daily average hot - metal output, port desilting volume, and global shipping volume [21][27]. Coal - Coke - **Market Outlook**: "Anti - involution" remains the focus of the market in the second half of the year. The market participants' expectations for the future are gradually improving, and there is a possibility of inventory transfer before the National Day to improve the supply - demand structure. However, the high supply of steel will suppress the rebound height of coal - coke prices [33]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Included the cost of coal - coke warehouse receipts, basis, month - spreads, and various profit ratios [38]. - **Spot Price Data**: Provided the spot prices of coking coal and coke, as well as import and export profits [39]. Ferroalloy - **Market Logic**: The trading logic of ferroalloys lies in the expectation of supply - side contraction. The production profit of ferroalloys is declining, and the supply - demand pressure may weaken [51]. - **Data**: Presented the daily data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, including basis, month - spreads, and spot prices [52][54]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment and focus are volatile. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, and the demand is stable. The inventory of the upper - middle reaches is high, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [62]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided the closing prices of soda ash futures contracts, month - spreads, and basis [63]. - **Spot Price Data**: Showed the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and their spreads [67]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: The high inventory of the upper - middle reaches and weak demand limit the price of glass. The supply - demand pattern of near - term supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price lacks a clear trend and trading logic [88]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Presented the closing prices of glass futures contracts, month - spreads, and basis [89]. - **Sales Data**: Provided the daily sales data of glass in different regions [90].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated September 19, 2025, covering sugar, cotton, apple, and jujube [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - The sugar market is under pressure due to increased production in Brazil and China's higher - than - expected sugar imports, but low inventory in Guangxi, China provides some support. The short - term sugar price is expected to be weak [3] Price and Spread - On September 19, 2025, SR01 closed at 5461 with a daily decline of 0.24% and a weekly decline of 1.43%. Other contracts also showed different degrees of decline [4] - The basis of Nanning - SR01 on September 18, 2025 was 366, with a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 32 [8] Import Price - On September 19, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4433, with a daily decline of 28 and a weekly increase of 54; the out - of - quota price was 5630, with a daily decline of 37 and a weekly increase of 71 [11] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - Low inventory of old cotton, high pre - sales of new cotton, and downstream de - stocking support the cotton price. However, poor spinning profits of yarn mills and high hedging pressure due to expected high yields may limit the upside of the cotton price. It is expected to fluctuate within the previous range in the short term [13] Price and Spread - On September 19, 2025, the closing price of Cotton 01 was 13720, down 45 or 0.33% [14] - The cotton basis was 1554, with an increase of 134 [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The sales of apples are affected by seasonal fruits, and the packaging quantity is limited due to the busy farming season in Shandong. The quality of late - season early Fuji apples is poor [19] Price and Spread - On September 19, 2025, AP01 closed at 8273, down 0.1% daily and 0.67% weekly [20] - The main contract basis was 310, down 1.27% daily and 0.96% weekly [20] Group 5: Jujube Market Core View - The new - season jujube production may decline significantly compared to last year but less compared to normal years. With high inventory of old jujubes and general downstream sales during the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival, jujubes may face downward pressure, but attention should be paid to weather conditions in the producing areas [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Palm Oil - **International Market**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market maintains a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation trend. Affected by the decline of US soybean oil futures, the Malaysian palm oil hovers around 4,400 ringgit. After a short - term consolidation and stabilization, with potential bullish factors such as slower production growth and increasing exports, the crude palm oil futures may strengthen. If it effectively stands above 4,500 ringgit, an upward oscillatory rally may occur. It's advisable to closely monitor whether it can stand above 4,400 ringgit [3]. - **Domestic Market**: The Dalian palm oil futures market also shows an oscillatory consolidation trend. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support of the 60 - day moving average. If the Malaysian palm oil strengthens, the Dalian palm oil futures may follow. After breaking through 9,500 yuan, it may open up new upside space. The overall view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones. It's necessary to closely watch whether it can stand above the 60 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Soybean Oil Today, the soybean oil futures rebounded due to the rise of rapeseed oil (anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed) and good consumption during the last stage of Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling. The news of soybean oil exports also provided support. However, the supply is sufficient, and with the upcoming China - US leaders' call, the market is waiting to see if it involves agricultural product purchases, resulting in limited price fluctuations. The January contract is oscillating above 8,300 yuan. If the call reveals China's purchase of US soybeans, the increase in soybean supply in the fourth quarter may drag down the far - term contracts, while the rise of CBOT soybeans may boost the near - term contracts. Otherwise, the January contract will maintain the current narrow - range oscillation [4]. 2.3 Oilseeds (Bean Meal) The bean meal futures once broke through the support level due to the increasing expectation of a China - US trade tariff agreement and weak market reality. But it rebounded slightly during the day under the influence of the sharp rise of rapeseed meal and profit - taking by some institutions. The short - term market is waiting for the guidance of trade negotiations, and the futures price continues to fluctuate around 3,000 yuan. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the near - term basis remained stable. With high inventory pressure, oil mills are urging customers to pick up goods and even repurchase some contracts. However, due to the weak peak - season consumption and the decline in pig存栏, feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. The spot price of bean meal has limited upward momentum and will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil Price and Spread**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 9,316 yuan/ton, 9,114 yuan/ton, and 8,792 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.13%, 0.07%, and 0.09%. The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,447 ringgit/ton, up 0.27%. There are also data on price spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, etc. [5][8] - **Soybean Oil Price and Spread**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,328 yuan/ton, 8,052 yuan/ton, and 7,990 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.17 cents/pound, down 1.25%. There are also data on price spreads such as Y 1 - 5, Y 5 - 9, etc. [5][13] 3.2 Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: Bean meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 3,014, 2,786, and 2,899 respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. Rapeseed meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 2,522, 2,387, and 2,454 respectively, with daily increases of 2.11%, 1.27%, and 0.78%. The CBOT yellow soybean is at 1,038.75, with no change [18]. - **Spread**: There are data on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc. For example, M01 - 05 is 228, up 7; RM01 - 05 is 113, up 14 [19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's hint of a slowdown in future interest rate cuts, leading to market divergence and profit - taking. However, there are still medium - to long - term supporting factors such as continuous central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and the de - dollarization trend, so the bottom support of the gold price is stable after the correction [3]. - The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern of tin in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [18][97]. - The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly [36][37][38]. - The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [66]. - For the nickel industry chain, there are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - For lithium carbonate, the "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - For the silicon industry chain, the short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Analysis**: The gold price is affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and the rebound of the US dollar index, but the bottom support is stable due to factors such as central bank gold purchases. The trading data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures are presented in multiple charts [3]. - **Long - term Factors**: Global central bank gold purchases continue, for example, China has increased its gold holdings for 10 consecutive months, and Switzerland's gold exports to China have soared by 254%. Geopolitical risks and the de - dollarization trend remain unchanged [3]. Copper - **Market Sentiment**: The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with expectations, but it will not enter a continuous interest rate cut cycle, which cools down the market sentiment [18]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper futures and spot are provided, including domestic and foreign markets. The import profit and loss, processing fees, and inventory data are also presented [19][22][28][34]. Aluminum - **Aluminum Price**: The price of aluminum reached a new high this year, but the downstream receiving sentiment is poor, and the future inventory is an important factor determining the price trend [36]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and the price may be weak in the short term. The core contradiction of bauxite lies in the tight domestic ore, low Guinea bauxite shipments, and high inventory [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate strongly due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum [38]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [39][45][53][62]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc is in an over - supply state, the market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average, and the LME inventory continues to decline [66]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc futures and spot are provided, as well as relevant spread and inventory data [67][73][78]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Industry Situation**: There are concerns about the supply of nickel ore, the new energy sector provides support, the stainless steel market is weak, and the overall market is weak due to the Fed's interest rate cut not exceeding expectations [82]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The Fed's interest rate cut cools down the market sentiment. The short - term supply - tight pattern in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on the price for the time being [97]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [98][102][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Support**: The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and the short - term supply - side disturbance does not change the support logic [108]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Outlook**: The short - term sentiment is positively supported, but the industry is under long - term structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and the trend is uncertain [117]. - **Trading Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, as well as production, inventory, and cost data [118][125][133][142].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: September 19, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Global zinc supply shortage supports a relatively strong price [3] - Clear fundamental bullish factors, with the supply - demand structure favoring zinc prices, but the market reaction on the trading board is weak [3] Bearish Factors - The spot basis has been continuously negative (Shanghai -70 yuan/ton), indicating a weak spot market [3] - Weak downstream demand and average trading volume suppress the upward momentum of prices [3] Trading Consultation Viewpoint - The fundamentals are bullish, but the market performance on the trading board is contrary to expectations, and the market reaction is weaker than expected. Risks need to be vigilant [3] Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Analyzed the market sentiment index, inventory, production, and net export/import of galvanized steel coils, die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets, and zinc oxide, as well as real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales, and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][6][9] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Studied the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, processing fees, zinc ingot production, enterprise production profits, raw material inventory days, and exchange inventories [19][21][22] Futures and Spot Market Review - Reviewed the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc futures, trading volume, open interest, the relationship between LME zinc prices and the US dollar index, basis trends, etc [27][28][29]

Group 1: Report Core Views - The coking coal 2601 contract oscillates with mine inventory depletion, rising spot prices, and pre - holiday restocking [5] - The coke 2601 contract oscillates after the second round of price cuts is implemented, some coke enterprises propose price increases, and there is restocking expectation [7] Group 2: Fundamental Information Coking Coal - Iron ore output increases week - on - week; the second round of coke price cuts is implemented, and some coke enterprises propose price increases; mines, steel mills, and ports reduce inventory, while independent coking plants, coal washing plants, and ports increase inventory [6] Coke - Iron ore output increases week - on - week; the second round of coke price cuts is implemented, and some coke enterprises propose price increases; steel mills and ports accumulate inventory, while coking plants reduce inventory [8] Group 3: Fundamental Points Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt is 1063, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is 1152, coke warehouse receipt is 1630, and overseas warehouse receipt price for Australian coal is 1550 [10] Demand, Profit, and Operation - Coking plant's on - paper profit (01 contract) is 158, up 5 week - on - week; total daily coke output is 113.37 tons, up 0.01 tons week - on - week and 3.56 tons year - on - year; iron ore output is 241.02 tons, up 0.47 tons week - on - week and 17.19 tons year - on - year; coal washing plant output is 26.8 tons (with sample data changes), up 1.19 tons week - on - week [10] Inventory - Coke total inventory is 915.18 tons, up 8.94 tons week - on - week and 104.37 tons year - on - year; coking plant's coke inventory is 66.41 tons, down 1.43 tons week - on - week and 11.57 tons year - on - year; steel mill's coke inventory is 644.67 tons, up 11.38 tons week - on - week and 101.99 tons year - on - year; port inventory is 204.1 tons, down 1.01 tons week - on - week and up 13.95 tons year - on - year [12] - Coking coal total inventory is 2012.94 tons, up 64.56 tons week - on - week and 36.36 tons year - on - year; coking plant's coking coal inventory is 940.41 tons, up 56.87 tons week - on - week and 69.22 tons year - on - year; steel mill's coking coal inventory is 790.34 tons, down 3.39 tons week - on - week and up 67.44 tons year - on - year; port inventory is 282.19 tons, up 11.08 tons week - on - week and down 122.91 tons year - on - year; coal washing plant inventory is 304.37 tons (with data sample changes), up 23.77 tons week - on - week [14] Import and Export - From January to July, coking coal imports are 62.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%; from January to July, coke exports are 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.02% [17] Group 4: Summary by Directory Price - The report presents the coking coal warehouse receipt price, coke export price, and coking coal import price and profit, including different price indicators and their trends over time [20][22][25] Demand, Profit, and Operation - It shows the iron ore output, independent coking plant's daily coke output, steel mill's coking daily output, coke profit, total coking daily output, and coal washing plant's daily output over the years [28][30][32] Inventory - It includes the coking plant's coke inventory, steel mill's coke inventory, coke port inventory, coke total inventory, coking plant's coking coal inventory, steel mill's coking coal inventory, coking coal total inventory, coking plant's coking coal available days, and steel mill's coking coal available days over the years [34][36][39] Import and Export - It shows the cumulative coke exports and coking coal imports over the years, as well as the breakdown of coking coal imports by country [40][41][45]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Derivatives Weekly Report - Report Date: September 19, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 Report Key Points Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut and market expectations of more rate cuts have boosted Treasury bond futures prices, reflecting an increased expectation of loose policies. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates by nearly 50 basis points in the October and December meetings, which supports Treasury bond futures [3]. Section Summaries Factors Affecting Treasury Bonds - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut and market expectations of more rate cuts drive up Treasury bond futures prices. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 1.56 basis points last week, indicating a rising price trend [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The two - year US Treasury bond yield rose 4.44 basis points, reflecting short - term interest - rate pressure or yield - curve changes. The market's reaction is weaker than last year despite positive fundamentals, suggesting adverse external factors or sentiment [3]. Data Presentations - **Yield and Interest Rates**: Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y Treasury bond yields, deposit - type institutional pledged - repo weighted rates, and reverse - repo rates are presented [4]. - **Term Spreads**: Information on the term spreads of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bonds is provided [4]. - **Positions and Trading Volumes**: Data on Treasury bond futures positions and trading volumes for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year contracts are shown [6][7]. - **Basis and Spread**: Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts, as well as the inter - quarter spreads of these contracts and cross - variety spreads, are presented [8][9][13][16][17][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The September USDA report had a neutral - weak impact on soybeans, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory, and a decrease in global production. Attention should be paid to the US soybean harvest progress [2]. - Uncertainty in Sino - US tariffs affects domestic soybean procurement in November, and future import changes need to be monitored. The market has been volatile due to Sino - US uncertainties [6]. - The domestic supply - demand situation for beans and rapeseed has shown little change. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in imports, but the situation remains uncertain. Low domestic rapeseed inventory may slow down rapeseed crushing and affect the supply of rapeseed meal and oil [6]. - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in a continuous inventory accumulation phase. The demand is in the off - season, but the National Day peak season may boost demand. There is an overall slightly surplus situation with high inventory pressure and some support from peak - season demand [37]. - The MPOB report on palm oil showed that inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the September report was moderately positive. Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil market and biodiesel. Domestic palm oil inventory accumulation has slowed, reducing supply - demand pressure [38]. - The domestic rapeseed oil market lacks new themes and is in a continuous inventory reduction cycle. Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply, and changes in imports from Russia should be monitored. Terminal purchasing willingness is low, and the market is highly volatile at high levels [38]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal - The September USDA report was neutral - weak, with an increase in US soybean production and inventory and a decrease in global production. Monitor the US soybean harvest progress [2]. - Uncertain Sino - US tariffs have led to inactive domestic soybean procurement in November. Pay attention to import changes and the progress of Sino - US tariffs [6]. - Both the spot and futures markets have been oscillating recently [6]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - The domestic supply - demand situation has changed little. Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant decline in imports, but the outcome is uncertain. Monitor domestic rapeseed import progress [6]. - Low domestic rapeseed inventory may slow down rapeseed crushing, affecting the supply of rapeseed meal and oil. The spot market has remained stable, and the domestic market has shown a slightly stronger oscillating trend recently [6]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - Soybean crushing remains at a high level, and soybean oil is in the inventory accumulation phase [37]. - Demand is in the off - season, but the National Day peak season may boost demand. There is an overall slightly surplus situation with high inventory pressure and some support from peak - season demand [37]. 3.4 Palm Oil - The MPOB report showed that inventory accumulation was less than expected, and the September report was moderately positive [38]. - Pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and biodiesel. Domestic palm oil inventory accumulation has slowed, reducing supply - demand pressure. Import costs have risen, but the domestic basis is weak [38]. 3.5 Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil market lacks new themes and is in a continuous inventory reduction cycle [38]. - Anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed may reduce supply, and changes in imports from Russia should be monitored. Terminal purchasing willingness is low, and the market is highly volatile at high levels [38].