尿素产业链周报 2025/12/07 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：刘琛瑞 Z0017093 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

基本面信息3：PDH装置生产利润持续亏损，若开工率下降5%，可能拖累整体需求；MTBE等化工下游利润亦走弱。 LPG行业周报 2025/12/07 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The term structure of SHFE silver futures is close to flat, contrasting with the previous CONTANGO, mainly due to the tight spot market. The silver TD deferred fee has been consistently showing a short - to - long payment situation. After January, the spot tightness may ease, and the CONTANGO structure is expected to return [3] Group 2: Copper - This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision and the trend of the US CPI year - on - year data. Given that last week's macro and micro factors jointly boosted copper prices, this week, even if the macro expectations are realized, the "high - price but low - trading" situation at the micro - level needs to be digested, so beware of price adjustments at high levels [14] - The latest prices and daily changes of copper futures and spot are as follows: the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 92,970 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan or 0.2%; the latest price of LME copper 3M is 11,665 dollars/ton, up 231 dollars or 2.02%. Among spot prices, the latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan or 0.78% [15][20] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina - Short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, mainly driven by improved macro sentiment and the strong performance of copper. However, pay attention to the interest rate cut expectations and be vigilant against potential price corrections before the interest rate cut. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, with high domestic production capacity, an open import window, and a large number of incoming import alumina, which exacerbates the imbalance between supply and demand [34] - The latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.31%; the latest price of alumina main contract is 2,585 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.17% [36] Group 4: Zinc - The ADP data indicates that an interest rate cut in December is certain. The next Fed Chairman may be pre - determined by Trump, raising doubts about the Fed's independence and potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. On the fundamental side, TC has dropped significantly, increasing the willingness of smelters to cut or stop production, resulting in supply contraction. The demand side is entering the off - season. Domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory is gradually increasing. Currently, with improving macro conditions but a stalemate in fundamentals, Shanghai zinc is undervalued among non - ferrous metals and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the impetus of funds [59] - The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,285 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%; the latest price of LME zinc closing price is 3,098 dollars/ton, up 7.5 dollars or 0.24% [60] Group 5: Nickel - Nickel ore is expected to be stable and slightly stronger as major mining areas in the Philippines and Indonesia have entered the rainy season, affecting production and shipping. The new energy sector has seen a certain decline following nickel prices, with most precursor factories having completed procurement, resulting in reduced downstream purchasing willingness. The decline of nickel iron has slowed, with some iron factories reducing production due to limited profits, and strong willingness of upstream suppliers to hold prices. The fundamentals of stainless steel have limited improvement. Currently, off - season demand is weak, so pay attention to Indonesian policies and the December interest rate cut expectations [75] - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,030 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 0%; the latest price of LME nickel 3M is 14,970 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars or - 0.02% [76] Group 6: Tin - The ADP data indicates a December interest rate cut, and Trump's frequent intervention in the next Fed Chairman raises doubts about the Fed's independence, potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. Pay attention to the Thursday interest rate meeting. On the fundamental side, in the short term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and there are frequent supply - side disturbances, so Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level volatile trend. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may ease due to potential peace talks [88] - The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 319,200 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 0.54%; the latest price of LME tin 3M is 40,175 dollars/ton, down 365 dollars or - 0.9% [89] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - From the fundamental perspective, the arrival volume of lithium ore in December is expected to increase month - on - month, potentially alleviating the tight supply situation at the ore end. Lithium salt factories generally maintain a high operating rate, and the resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo Ningde needs to be closely monitored. The demand side shows the characteristic of "off - season not being off - season", with high pre - production schedules for power and energy storage terminals in December, driving strong purchasing demand from downstream material factories. The pattern of strong supply and demand continues, providing a bottom - level support for prices. Technically, the current price faces short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and there is a strong motivation for long - position holders to take profits at this level. Be vigilant against potential profit - taking by long - position holders due to increased differences among funds in the context of active market trading recently. In general, in the short term, be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and the price may experience a phased correction [103] - The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan from the previous day but down 980 yuan from last week [104] Group 8: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with both upstream and downstream having expectations of production cuts. The fundamentals lack substantial improvement momentum. Considering potential supply - side disturbances from winter environmental protection in production areas, the short - term fundamentals of the industry are unlikely to improve. Technically, the futures price has been moving within the Bollinger Bands, and in the short term, it will closely follow the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal, and is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend. In the long - term, the downside space of the price is limited [117] - The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,675 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 1.48% [120]

咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力。所有本报告中使用的商标 ...

油料周报 油料产业周报 2025/12/5 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保 ...

Report Summary Core View - The capital market maintains a loose pattern, and abundant liquidity supports the bond market. The economic fundamentals have no significant negative factors, and the market environment is relatively stable. However, there are potential risks of rising inflation expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, which may put pressure on the bond market. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see approach, control risks, and pay attention to policy signals and economic data trends [2] Data Analysis - **Yield to Maturity**: The report presents the yield - to - maturity data of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bonds from 2024/04 to 2025/08 [3] - **Funding Rates**: It shows the funding rates including the deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted average rate for 1 - day and 7 - day, and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from 2023/12 to 2025/06 [3] - **Treasury Bond Term Spreads**: The term spreads of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bonds from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are provided [4][5] - **Treasury Bond Futures Positions**: The positions data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 are presented [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures Trading Volume**: The trading volume data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are shown [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures Basis**: The basis data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are provided with different time ranges [9][10][11][13] - **Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures (current - quarter minus next - quarter) are presented with different time ranges [14][15][16][18] - **Treasury Bond Futures Inter - Variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of TS*4 - T from 2024/04 to 2025/08 and T*3 - TL from 2023/06 to 2025/06 are shown [19][20]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: December 5, 2025 - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views Bullish Factors - Domestic zinc inventory has been continuously declining, with the inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions decreasing by 0.38 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3]. - Export orders have remained stable, and the improvement in weather has boosted terminal demand, supporting zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - The increase in LME zinc inventory indicates supply pressure, and weak consumption has suppressed zinc prices [3]. - Galvanizing enterprises in northern China have reduced their operating rates due to environmental protection restrictions, dragging down downstream demand [3]. Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of inventory changes and export data on short - term prices and operate with caution [3]. Summary by Directory Processing and Terminal Demand - Multiple data on the zinc processing industry, including the weekly market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized coils, are presented in a seasonal chart format [5]. - Seasonal charts of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide are provided [6][8]. - Seasonal charts of real - estate - related data such as real - estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transaction area are shown [11][13][15]. - Seasonal charts of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in different sectors are presented [16]. Supply and Supply - side Profit - Seasonal charts of zinc concentrate monthly import volume, SMM zinc ingot monthly output, China's zinc ingot monthly production plus import volume, and zinc concentrate raw material inventory days are provided [19][22][23][25]. - Charts showing the relationship between SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, refined zinc enterprise production profit and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees, and LME and SHFE zinc inventory are presented [21][22][25][26]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts of domestic and international zinc price trends, Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume and open interest, LME zinc closing price and US dollar index, LME zinc premium and discount, and zinc ingot basis are presented [28][29][30][32][34][37].

铜周报 铜行业周报 2025/12/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

| | 最新值 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪镍主连 | 117760 | -90 | -0.08% | 元/吨 | | 沪镍连一 | 117760 | 680 | 0.58% | 元/吨 | | 沪镍连二 | 117940 | 690 | 0.59% | 元/吨 | | 沪镍连三 | 118220 | 700 | 0.59% | 元/吨 | | LME镍3M | 14885 | 65 | 0.60% | 美元/吨 | | 持仓量 | 118041 | -4850 | -4.0% | 手 | | 成交量 | 103322 | -42507 | -29.15% | 手 | | 仓单数 | 35096 | 1787 | 5.36% | 吨 | | 主力合约基差 | 105 | 75 | 250.00% | 元/吨 | | | 最新值 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 不锈钢主连 | 12425 | -20 | 0% | 元/吨 | | 不锈钢连一 | 12425 | ...

| | 收盘价 | 今日涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪01 | 11385 | 0 | 0% | | 生猪03 | 11085 | -105 | -0.94% | | 生猪05 | 11805 | -65 | -0.55% | | 生猪07 | 12590 | -30 | -0.24% | | 生猪09 | 13515 | -10 | -0.07% | | 生猪11 | 13770 | -5 | -0.04% | 饲料养殖日报 2025/12/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z000220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客 ...