Group 1: Sugar Core View - Indian production increase suppresses international sugar prices. The number of sugar mills in Yunnan, China, starting production has increased year-on-year, and the arrival volume of raw sugar outside the tariff quota is at the second-highest level in the past five years. The short-term price fluctuates strongly, with increasing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the movement of raw sugar [3]. Key Points - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5304 with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.11%; SR03 closed at 5258 with a daily decrease of 0.51% and a weekly decrease of 0.55%, etc. [4] - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 15, down 6 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week; SR05 - 09 was -11, down 6 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week, etc. [4] - Sugar basis: For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 75, up 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was -65, up 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [9]. - Sugar import prices: The quota - within price of Brazilian sugar was 4002, down 45 from the previous day and 77 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 5068, down 59 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [13]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - With the continuous upward shift of cotton prices, the spinning profits of domestic downstream yarn mills have been significantly squeezed, and industrial risks have accumulated. Meanwhile, the price advantage of imported yarn has emerged, which may impact domestic cotton consumption. In the short term, cotton prices may face a correction risk, but the correction range may be limited due to the relatively low inventory pressure of the downstream. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [15]. Key Points - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 14675, down 20 from the previous day with a decrease of 0.14%; Cotton 05 closed at 14590, down 85 from the previous day with a decrease of 0.58%, etc. [16] - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: The cotton basis was 1341, up 44 from the previous day; Cotton 01 - 05 was 85, up 65 from the previous day, etc. [16] Group 3: Apple Core View - In the short term, apples have slightly corrected due to lower - than - expected demand. However, the main logic of the current market is the short - term issue of delivery products. It is expected that apples will continue to be strong after short - term adjustment. Additionally, pre - Spring Festival stocking has gradually started, and cold storages are packaging goods. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [20]. Key Points - Apple futures prices: AP03 closed at 9583, down 3.06% from the previous day and 1.6% from the previous week; AP04 closed at 9539, down 2.73% from the previous day and 1.47% from the previous week, etc. [21] - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 9807, down 14959.09% from the previous day and 2195.51% from the previous week; AP05 - 10 was 1402, down 2.71% from the previous day and up 29.81% from the previous week [21][22]. - Apple basis: The main contract basis was - 430, down 12.96% from the previous day and up 27.98% from the previous week [21]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View - In the short term, red date prices may remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement. In the long - term, the overall supply - demand of domestic red dates in the new year is relatively loose, and prices will still face downward pressure [29]. Key Points - Red date price spreads: For example, the red date futures spread of 01 - 05 showed certain trends in different periods [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, steel products are supported by the cost side with limited downside, but lack upward drivers, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a high shipping level, slow steel - mill resumption, increasing port inventories, and high valuations, so the short - term price is weak but with limited downside [21] - The coking coal supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the surplus is not serious. The inventory structure is expected to improve, and the macro sentiment is the key factor for price trends [32] - Ferroalloys have large supply pressure, but are supported by the cost side, and may show bottom - oscillating trends after a correction [49] - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, with increasing over - supply expectations. High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream limit prices [63] - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, and the high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, with existing spot pressure [87] 3. Summary of Each Section Steel Products - **Price Data**: - On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day, and the month - spreads also showed different degrees of change. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, up from 3165 yuan/ton on the previous day [4] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed slightly, and the basis also had corresponding fluctuations [8][10] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot roll - rebar price difference also showed different trends [15] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable [18] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume of iron ore is at a moderately high level with a 12% year - on - year increase. The steel - mill resumption is slow, with a 1.5 - million - ton week - on - week decrease in molten iron production to 228 million tons. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, exceeding historical highs [21] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts generally decreased compared to the previous day, and the basis also changed. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 806.5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal supply - demand structure is in surplus, but the surplus is not serious compared to previous years. With the improvement of demand and the reduction of domestic mine production during the Spring Festival, the inventory structure is expected to improve [32] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the coking coal and coke contract spreads, the basis, and the production profits all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [33][35][36] Ferroalloys - **Fundamentals**: Silicon iron has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of silicon manganese has decreased week - on - week, but the inventory base is still large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is large, but they are supported by the cost side [49] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the basis, contract spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [50][51] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: With the release of new production capacity, the daily output of soda ash has reached a new high, and the over - supply expectation is intensifying. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is high, which restricts the price. However, exports in November were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [63] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts and the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [64] Glass - **Fundamentals**: Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [87] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts and the month - spreads changed significantly. For example, the glass 01 contract dropped to 0 yuan/ton from 941 yuan/ton on the previous day [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel: The demand for rebar weakens seasonally as construction in the north halts, and the destocking slope of hot-rolled coils slows down and is expected to turn into inventory accumulation. The supply fundamentals weaken as the iron water output rebounds and the steel mill profits improve, leading to a month-on-month increase in both outputs. The support from furnace materials and its low valuation limit the downside space. The iron ore replenishment expectation supports the ore price, but the accumulation of port inventories restricts the increase. Coking coal prices rise due to production cut news, but the inventory base is relatively large, and both are expected to remain volatile in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The price rises due to capital spill - over, but the fundamentals are weak. The supply side has neutral shipments, high floating inventories at sea, and continuous arrival pressure, with abundant spot goods. On the demand side, although the iron water output has bottomed out and rebounded, the steel market has entered the off - season, and the rebar inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, making it difficult to support a continuous and substantial increase in iron water production. The port inventory has exceeded 170 million tons and continues to accumulate, resulting in a deviation between price and fundamentals [20]. - Coal and Coke: The domestic mines continue to resume production, and the number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the import end has declined but remains at a high level year - on - year. The price difference between Australian coal at home and abroad is inverted, leading to a possible decline in subsequent arrivals. The iron water output of steel mills has stabilized and rebounded, increasing procurement demand. The start of winter storage and the rebound of the futures market have driven the release of speculative demand, and many coking enterprises have initiated price increases. There is a structural surplus in supply and demand, but the degree is limited, and macro - sentiment is the core driver [30]. - Ferroalloys: Ferrosilicon has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of ferromanganese has decreased month - on - month, but the inventory base is still relatively large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is high, but the cost side provides support. In the short term, after the correction, ferroalloys are expected to show a bottom - oscillating trend [46]. - Soda Ash: The previous increase in commodity sentiment has driven up low - valued varieties, and the futures market has risen, with mid - stream replenishment of soda ash. Fundamentally, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high, and the expectation of oversupply is intensifying. The medium - to - long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. The photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable, with the heavy - soda balance remaining in surplus. In November, the soda ash export was close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price of soda ash [60]. - Glass: Before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to be cold - repaired, which may affect the far - month pricing and market expectations. In addition, the policy's impact on supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of the change in supply expectations, the high inventory of the glass mid - stream needs to be digested, and the spot market is under pressure as the terminal has entered the off - season [82]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3134 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had slight fluctuations. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [4][8][10]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the 01 contract closed at 830 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan from the previous day. The basis also changed, with the 01 basis at - 35 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamentals**: As of January 9, 2026, the average daily iron water output was 2295,000 tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 162.7526 million tons, up 3.0437 million tons week - on - week [25]. Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 167 yuan, up 57 yuan from the previous day. The coking profit on the futures market was - 42 yuan, up 36.912 yuan from the previous day [31][33]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and varieties had different changes. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1500 yuan/ton, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1069 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan week - on - week [35]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 13, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 12 yuan, up 16 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was - 138 yuan, up 5536 yuan from the previous day [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 184 yuan, up 64 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 2.18%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 61 yuan, up 2 yuan from the previous day [61]. - **Fundamentals**: New production capacity is gradually releasing output, and the daily production of soda ash has reached a new high. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches remains high, and the export volume in November was close to 190,000 tons [60]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 13, 2026, the glass 05 contract closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 4.11%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day [83]. - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China showed certain fluctuations from January 2 to January 8, 2026 [84].

Core View - For aluminum, on the supply side, there are still electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Inner Mongolia dismantling, and the theoretical starting capacity of the industry is expected to continue to increase; on the demand side, demand is growing steadily, and there may be some production cuts in the short term, but the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits remain high, and low inventory is still the key support for prices. Overseas macro - situation and macro factors may continue to support aluminum prices, and the market is currently showing a strong and high - level shock [3]. - For alumina, in terms of supply, short - term phased supply has decreased, but overall, alumina supply is still in surplus, and fundamental negative factors still exist. On the demand side, the demand growth rate has slowed down, and the ceiling of downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively certain. Currently, the starting capacity of alumina enterprises remains high, and as the enterprise quotation center has shifted upward, the procurement willingness of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased, so the inventory in alumina plants has increased. There are still short - term policy expectations, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Grouped by Content Aluminum Market - **Price and Position**: Information on the closing price and position of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and LME aluminum (3 - month) is presented, including price in yuan/ton and position in hands [5]. - **Supply**: Inner Mongolia has electrolytic aluminum enterprise dismantling, and the industry's theoretical starting capacity is expected to increase. The ceiling policy for domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is clear, and global supply elasticity is insufficient. Cost - side factors such as scarce scrap aluminum and power support also affect supply [3][8]. - **Demand**: Demand is growing steadily, but there may be short - term production cuts. Downstream has certain production cut plans, and the procurement willingness of processing enterprises is low [3][8]. - **Market Situation**: The market is in a high - level and strong shock state. Low inventory and overseas macro - factors support the price [3]. Alumina Market - **Price and Position**: Information on the closing price and position of the alumina futures main contract, as well as alumina monthly spreads, is provided [16][17]. - **Supply**: Short - term phased supply has decreased, but overall supply is still in surplus. Some regional alumina enterprises have elastic production due to profit losses, and domestic new alumina production capacity will gradually show supply pressure [4][9]. - **Demand**: Demand growth has slowed down, and the ceiling of downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is certain. The procurement willingness of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased, and the inventory in alumina plants has increased [4]. - **Market Situation**: There are short - term policy expectations, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: Information on China's bauxite national monthly production, import volume, port inventory, and production by province is presented, including seasonal data [22][23]. - **Alumina**: Data on China's alumina monthly production, production by main origin, weekly starting rate, import volume, and import profit and loss are provided, including seasonal data [24][30][31]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Information on global and China's electrolytic aluminum monthly production, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly production, and net import is given, including seasonal data [32][33]. - **Inventory**: Data on aluminum ingot, aluminum rod, and their combined weekly outbound volume, as well as various inventory data such as aluminum bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, are presented, including seasonal data [35][62][65][67]. Downstream Demand - **Product Output**: Seasonal data on the output of aluminum rods, profiles, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots are provided [39]. - **Starting Rate**: Seasonal data on the weekly and monthly starting rates of various aluminum products are presented, including aluminum plates, foils, and profiles [40][47]. - **Export**: Seasonal data on the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and China's aluminum product export profit are provided [49][51]. - **Related Industries**: Data on related industries such as real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), and power (grid and power source project investment, photovoltaic installation) are presented, including seasonal data [52][55][58][61]. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Price**: Prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas, and European electricity prices are presented [71][72]. - **Cost and Profit**: Data on alumina cost and China's electrolytic aluminum cost and profit are provided [71][72].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply pressure has eased due to increased smelter maintenance and wider comprehensive smelting losses in December, while demand remains strong with continuous decline in social inventory and low zinc price valuation [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is an expected increase in future supply, causing a temporary peak in Shanghai zinc futures and limiting short - term upward momentum. Also, it has entered the seasonal consumption off - season with weak terminal orders and the impact of environmental inspections in the north [3]. - **Trading Advice**: Current trading is cautious. It is recommended to closely monitor the reduction in smelter production and changes in terminal consumption orders to assess short - term support [3]. Section Summaries 1. Processing and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coils**: Data on market sentiment index, weekly inventory, steel mill weekly production, and net exports are presented, sourced from Wind [4]. - **Other Products**: Data on net exports of color - coated sheets, zinc oxide, and related real - estate and infrastructure investment indicators are provided, all sourced from Wind [7][10][15] 2. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Information on monthly import volume, TC (treatment charge), and raw material inventory days is given, sourced from Wind [18][20][24]. - **Zinc Ingot**: Data on monthly production, production + import volume, enterprise production profit, and various inventory data (LME, SHFE, etc.) are provided, sourced from Wind [21][22][25] 3. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trends**: Information on domestic and international zinc price trends, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, and various premium and basis data are presented, sourced from Wind [27][29][31]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Indonesia's production cut plan: Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production by 34%, leading to expectations of supply tightening and stimulating a rebound and limit - up in futures prices [3] - Recovery in stainless steel demand: The strong performance of stainless steel mill prices, along with the recovery of terminal demand, supports the upward space for nickel prices despite high inventory costs [3] Bearish Factors - Strong US dollar: The continuous strengthening of the US dollar index reduces the pricing competitiveness of commodities and suppresses the price performance of non - ferrous metals [3] - High inventory: Global nickel inventories continue to accumulate, especially the high level of visible inventories, weakening market concerns about supply - demand tightness [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Although Indonesia's policy stimulus boosts expectations, the improvement in fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the actual implementation of policies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: The latest value of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 139,090 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 710 yuan and a weekly decline of 0.51%. Other contracts like Shanghai nickel continuous one, two, and three have different price changes and percentage increases. LME nickel 3M is at 17,700 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 410 dollars and a 3.60% increase [4] - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The main contract of stainless steel is at 13,860 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 465 yuan and a 3% increase. Other contracts also show price increases. The trading volume and open interest have significant increases [5] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel have all decreased by 7,150 yuan/ton, with percentage declines ranging from 4.67% to 4.96% [5] - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 61,046 tons, an increase of 2,126 tons; LME nickel inventory is 284,790 tons, an increase of 8,490 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 854,600 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [7] Supply - Side Information - **Primary Nickel Supply**: Information on China's refined nickel monthly production, primary nickel monthly total supply including imports shows seasonal trends [13] - **Upstream Nickel Ore**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory, and the prices of different types of nickel pig iron (such as 8 - 12% and Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron) are presented with historical data [16][18] - **Nickel Iron Production**: China and Indonesia's nickel iron monthly production shows seasonal patterns [19][20] Downstream Information - **Nickel Sulfate**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel, production profit margins, monthly production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors are all presented with historical data [22][24][25] - **Stainless Steel**: The profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production, and inventory show seasonal trends [28][30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for precious metals lies in the choices of sovereign funds against the backdrop of de - dollarization. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. There has been a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts, a significant decrease in US gold warehouse receipts, and a sharp drop in domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold AU - **Viewpoint**: The demand for precious metals is due to the choices of sovereign funds in the de - dollarization context. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have increased significantly, while US gold warehouse receipts have decreased significantly. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2] - **Fundamentals**: Include the Venezuela situation (US military action, leadership changes, oil supply, and sanctions), Trump's plan to acquire Greenland and related international reactions, US initial jobless claims data (208,000 in the week ending January 3rd, lower than expected), and non - farm payroll report (50,000 increase in December, 76,000 downward revision in October and November combined, 4.4% unemployment rate in December, 584,000 increase in 2025) [2] Silver AG - **Viewpoint**: The demand for precious metals is due to the choices of sovereign funds in the de - dollarization context. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have increased significantly, while US gold warehouse receipts have decreased significantly. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to those of gold, covering the Venezuela situation, Trump's plan for Greenland, US economic data such as initial jobless claims and non - farm payrolls [3] One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - International events include the Venezuela "three - hour lightning war", Yemen military conflict, Iran's handling of internal unrest, OPEC+ decision on production suspension, Samsung and SK Hynix's plan to raise server memory prices, and high - tech developments like Qualcomm's robot technology [6] - US economic data includes ADP employment increase of 41,000 in December (lower than expected), initial jobless claims of 208,000 in the week ending January 3rd (lower than expected), 2025 October trade deficit of $29.4 billion (the smallest since June 2009), and non - farm payroll details (50,000 increase in December, 76,000 downward revision in October and November combined, 4.4% unemployment rate) [6] - Political events involve Trump's various threats and plans, such as threatening Cuba, planning to acquire Greenland, and discussing the next Fed chairperson [6] Gold Market Tracking - **Positions**: The latest long - position of COMEX gold futures and options managed funds is 122,450 contracts, short - position is 35,978 contracts. SPDR gold ETF holding is 862 tons, iShares gold ETF holding is 402 tons, and the futures position of gold in Shanghai is 407,927 hands [7] - **Changes**: In 5 days, the long - position ratio decreased by 4%, short - position ratio decreased by 1%, and the futures position increased by 16,492 hands. In one week, the long - position decreased by 5,556 contracts, short - position increased by 2,599 contracts [7] Silver Market Tracking - **Positions**: The latest long - position of COMEX silver futures and options managed funds is 44,277 contracts, short - position is 27,801 contracts. SLV silver ETF holding is 13,802 tons, and the futures position of silver in Shanghai is 971,795 hands [12] - **Changes**: In 5 days, the long - position increased by 57 contracts, short - position increased by 58 contracts, and the futures position increased by 78,420 hands. In one week, the long - position decreased by 4,423 contracts, short - position decreased by 4,757 contracts [12] Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - Import gold and silver hedging profit rates are presented in a time - series graph from July 2024 to December 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [18] Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - ICE dollar index non - commercial net long - position and total futures position data are presented in a time - series graph from June 2025 to January 2026, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [20] US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - CBOT non - commercial net long - positions of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year US Treasury bond futures and options, as well as the total futures position of US Treasury bonds, are presented in time - series graphs, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [25] US Inflation Expectation - Break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods from November 2025 to January 2026 are presented, with values ranging from 2.20 to 2.50 [30] US Real Interest Rate - US Treasury real - yield curves for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods from February 2006 to August 2025 are presented, with values ranging from - 3.00 to 5.00 [32] US Interest Rate Term Structure - US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [35] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spread between the US and Major Non - US Countries - Yield spreads between the US 2 - year Treasury bond and those of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany from November 2025 to January 2026 are presented. For example, the spread between the US and the UK ranges from - 0.60 to 0.10 [38]

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - Bullish factors for the 10-year Treasury bond last week include the recovery of allocation demand due to alleviated concerns about ultra-long-term supply and increased institutional allocation willingness, and a loose funding environment with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, leading to downward pressure on interest rates [2] - Bearish factors are the weak expectation of monetary easing as the Fed's rate cut expectation lacks strong fundamental support in the short term, and the pressure from the stock-bond seesaw, with capital preference for the bond market causing selling pressure on the stock market and yield fluctuations [2] - The trading advisory view is that the bond market sentiment was generally cautious last week. It is recommended to focus on the allocation window brought by the widening of spreads, buy configuration-type contracts on dips, maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and avoid unilateral chasing [2] Group 2: Data Presentations Yields - The document presents the historical data of 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024 to 2025 [3] Funding Rates - It shows the historical data of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase by deposit-taking institutions for 1-day and 7-day tenors and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 2023 to 2025 [3] Term Spreads - The historical data of the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 2024 to 2025 are presented [4] Futures Basis - The historical data of the basis of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures' current-quarter contracts are shown [7][8][9][15] Futures Inter - Delivery Spreads - The historical data of the inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures are presented [11][13][16] Futures Trading Volume - The historical trading volume data of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures from 2015 to 2025 are shown [14] Futures Cross - Product Spreads - The historical data of the cross - product spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL are presented [17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of soymeal remains loose, with sufficient imported soybeans, stable production, and high inventory, while demand is in a seasonal slump and external factors exert long - term downward pressure on prices [2] - Rapeseed meal supply is currently tight but may face increased pressure in the long - term due to potential policy changes, and demand is weak in the winter [3] - For cooking oils, different oils have different supply - demand situations and are affected by various factors such as production, inventory, consumption, and policies [37][38][39] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soymeal - **Supply**: Imported soybean arrivals are sufficient (6 million tons expected in January), oil mill operating rates are around 54%, production is stable, and inventory, though decreasing for two consecutive weeks, remains at a historically high level (1.05 million tons) [2] - **Demand**: Downstream feed enterprises have high inventory (physical inventory up 55% year - on - year), and pig farming losses suppress procurement enthusiasm. Demand is in a seasonal slump, and purchases are mainly made on a need - to - use basis [2] - **External Factors**: The expected high yield of South American soybeans (Brazil's production is expected to be 177 million tons) suppresses US soybean prices, reducing domestic import costs and exerting long - term downward pressure on soymeal [2] Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a historical low (coastal oil mill inventory is close to zero), and crushing volume has stagnated for 6 consecutive weeks. It currently relies on port granular rapeseed meal inventory (474,200 tons), but delayed Australian rapeseed arrivals have led to a tight supply [3] - **Demand**: Aquaculture is in a winter slump, with daily提货量 only in the hundreds of tons, and the demand for poultry feed addition is limited. The widening price difference between soymeal and rapeseed meal weakens the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal [3] - **Policy Variables**: The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has raised expectations of a loosening of rapeseed import policies. If anti - dumping tax adjustments are implemented, long - term supply pressure will increase significantly, suppressing price flexibility [3] Cooking Oils Soybean Oil - **Supply**: The weekly output of imported soybean crushing remains high, and soybean oil output is stable. However, inventory has been decreasing, and pre - Spring Festival stocking supports the spot market [37] - **Demand**: Catering consumption is gradually recovering, and purchases of small - packaged oils are increasing, but terminal stocking efforts are lower than expected, and the spot market remains strong [37] - **External Linkage**: Crude oil may have a certain impact [37] Palm Oil - **Supply**: Malaysia's inventory reached 2.835 million tons in December, a five - year high, and domestic port inventory has also increased to 765,000 tons, indicating significant supply pressure [38] - **Demand**: The recovery of domestic catering consumption has driven edible demand, and the biodiesel blending policy supports industrial demand, but high inventory suppresses price flexibility [38] - **Policy Game**: Indonesia plans to raise the export tax from 10% to 15%, and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan is uncertain [38] Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: Domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased by 48% year - on - year (2.97 million tons accumulated in 2025), and rapeseed oil production has decreased significantly. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed imports (estimated at 300,000 - 400,000 tons) will ease the raw material shortage, and long - term supply is expected to be loose [39] - **Demand**: Pre - Spring Festival stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices suppress procurement enthusiasm, the basis has declined, and the spot market is weakening [39] - **Policy Impact**: Expectations of improved China - Canada trade relations are rising. If Canadian rapeseed imports resume, it will further suppress the premium of rapeseed oil, and prices will face long - term downward pressure [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - AI, defense, and new energy sectors drive global copper demand growth. Goldman Sachs raises the 2026 copper price forecast, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen [4]. - Copper ore processing fees decline, smelters' losses expand, and miners' production turns to a year - on - year decrease. Resource shortages shift from expectation to reality [4]. - SMM social inventory increases by 19,600 tons to 273,800 tons weekly, and the inventory accumulation pressure restrains the spot market performance [4]. - High copper prices suppress downstream procurement, terminal orders slow down, the refined - scrap copper price difference remains at 4,401 yuan/ton, and scrap copper substitution advantage is obvious [4]. - In the short term, copper prices face downward pressure and correction due to capital profit - taking and inventory accumulation. In the medium term, the demand logic of AI and energy transition remains unchanged, and copper prices may continue a relatively strong pattern after adjustment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 101,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. The position is 188,674, with a weekly decrease of 19,572, and the trading volume is 303,818 [6]. - The latest price of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 101,451 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.20%. The position is 617,743, with a weekly decrease of 41,184, and the trading volume is 594,678 [6]. - The latest price of International Copper is 90,150 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.59%. The position is 7,403, with a weekly increase of 189, and the trading volume is 15,155 [6]. - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 12,702 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.64%. The position is 239,014, with a weekly decrease of 38,282, and the trading volume is 35,292 [6]. - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 580.6 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.97%. The position is 143,390, with a weekly increase of 477, and the trading volume is 66,816 [6]. Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 102,085 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,465 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.57% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Material Trade is 102,530 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,955 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.08% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 102,560 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.02% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 102,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,810 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.92% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 45 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 145 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 76.32% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Material Trade premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 215 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 81.13% [11]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 235 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 92.16% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 5 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 130 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 104% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is 16.75 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 13.64 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 44.88% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is 101.46 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 73.34 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 41.96% [11]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 788.51 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 700.97 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 47.06% [12]. - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 44.76 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0 and a weekly change rate of 0% [12]. - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 4.1569, with a weekly decrease of 0.1998 and a weekly decrease rate of 4.59% [12]. - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 4,834.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,339.13 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 38.31% [12]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The latest total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 111,216 tons, with a weekly increase of 29,441 tons and a weekly increase rate of 36% [18]. - The latest total International Copper warehouse receipts are 1,053 tons, with a weekly change of 0 and a weekly change rate of 0% [18]. - The latest SHFE copper inventory is 145,342 tons, with a weekly increase of 33,639 tons and a weekly increase rate of 30.11% [18]. - The latest LME copper registered warehouse receipts are 115,150 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,550 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.11% [18]. - The latest LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 25,925 tons, with a weekly decrease of 10,900 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 29.6% [19]. - The latest LME copper inventory is 141,075 tons, with a weekly decrease of 6,350 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 4.31% [19]. - The latest COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts are 321,107 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,756 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.8% [19]. - The latest COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 193,850 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,140 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.38% [19]. - The latest COMEX copper inventory is 514,957 tons, with a weekly increase of 16,896 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.39% [19]. - The latest copper ore port inventory is 670,000 tons, with a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.47% [19]. - The latest social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19]. Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In November 2025, the monthly refined copper production is 1.236 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The cumulative production is 13.323 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [22]. - In November 2025, the monthly copper product production is 2.226 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative production is 22.593 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [22]. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In November 2025, the total annual production capacity of refined copper rods is 15.84 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 63.31%, with a monthly increase of 7.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [24]. - In November 2025, the total annual production capacity of scrap copper rods is 8.19 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 23.59%, with a monthly decrease of 0.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.73% [24]. - In December 2025, the total annual production capacity of copper strips is 3.59 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 64.48%, with a monthly decrease of 1.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [24]. - In December 2025, the total annual production capacity of copper rods is 2.2865 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 56.72%, with a monthly increase of 2.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46% [24]. - In December 2025, the total annual production capacity of copper tubes is 2.783 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 61.59%, with a monthly increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.99% [24]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In November 2025, the monthly copper concentrate import volume is 2.526194 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 13%. The cumulative import volume is 27.615499 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly anode copper import volume is 58,333 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The cumulative import volume is 688,621 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly cathode copper import volume is 269,205 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The cumulative import volume is 3,085,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly scrap copper import volume is 208,143 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20%. The cumulative import volume is 2,103,603 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly copper product import volume is 430,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The cumulative import volume is 4,880,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [28].