1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, profit margins have improved, reducing the incentive for production cuts. Iron ore production has stopped declining and stabilized, with a slight increase in output. However, downstream demand is expected to weaken gradually after the festival. Currently, inventory is being depleted, but there may be inventory accumulation due to supply - demand mismatches in the future, leading to a price return to a volatile pattern [3] - For iron ore, the current fundamentals are neutral. The shipping end is slightly positive, but there is significant pressure on floating ore at sea and subsequent port - arrival pressure. On the demand side, steel mill profits have rebounded, and inventory has been continuously depleted, providing room for increased production. It is expected that iron production has bottomed out and will rebound. Inventory is high, but there is a structural shortage. Attention should be paid to policy risks. Steel mills have pre - festival inventory replenishment demand for support. Overall, the current spot market is not short of iron ore, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price increases. In the short - term, prices are overbought technically, and attention should be paid to policy risks related to inventory release [22] - For coking coal and coke, the market has been affected by the "anti - monopoly" news, and the previous hype of the "anti - involution" concept has cooled down. The coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of correction. The rebound of coking coal and coke is mainly driven by the resonance of macro and industrial logic. Macro - level events have intensified concerns about the supply stability of key mineral resources, affecting multiple sectors. On the industrial side, the stabilization and rebound of downstream iron production, the strengthening of winter storage replenishment expectations, and low inventory in the spot - futures trading link support the demand side. The impact of macro sentiment on coking coal and coke prices is significantly stronger than that of industrial logic. If the macro sentiment cools down, it will be difficult to support a significant upward movement of the futures market relying solely on the improvement of demand in the black industry chain. The subsequent trend may turn into a small - range volatile pattern [32] - For ferroalloys, with the increase in production and continuous inventory accumulation, the upward momentum of price fluctuations may be suppressed, leading to a price correction. However, the downward space is limited due to cost support [48] - For soda ash, the sentiment in the commodity market has heated up, driving up low - valued varieties. Fundamentally, as the expectation of new production capacity comes into play, the expectation of oversupply in soda ash is intensifying. Recently, the cold repair of glass production lines has accelerated, further weakening the expected rigid demand for soda ash. The medium - to - long - term high - level supply expectation of soda ash remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In November, soda ash exports were close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to alleviate domestic pressure to some extent. High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts soda ash prices [62] - For glass, there are still some glass production line cold repairs to be implemented before the Spring Festival, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy disturbances to supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of supply expectations, the high inventory in the mid - stream of glass needs to be digested, and with the terminal market entering the off - season, there is still pressure on the spot market [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,089 yuan/ton, down from 3,127 yuan/ton on January 8; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices also showed slight declines in some regions [4][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 55 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 41 yuan/ton on January 8; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 39 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 17 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar - hot - rolled coil spread also showed some changes [4][16] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the 01 contract was 852 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 05 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan from the previous day. The basis also showed corresponding changes [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The average daily iron production on January 9 was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port inventory was 16,275,260 tons, up 304,370 tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread Data**: On January 9, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 83 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 328 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1,500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan from the previous week [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 9, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 38 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 146 yuan/ton on January 9, down 62 yuan from the previous day; the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [50] Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,228 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,295 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [63] - **Inventory and Market Data**: The overall inventory of the upstream and mid - stream remains high, restricting price increases. In November, exports were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [62] Glass - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,144 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,238 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day [85] - **Sales and Production Data**: The sales - to - production ratio in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on January 4 was 137, compared to 130 on January 3 [86]

1. Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The strengthening of the US dollar led to the liquidation of long positions in ICE raw sugar. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming in China remained stable. There were changes in the crushing and export data of India and Brazil, a decrease in China's imports, and a year-on-year decline in sugar production in Guangxi. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, but upward pressure is gradually emerging [3]. - **Cotton**: The market is currently dominated by the strong expectation of tight supply - demand in the new year and a decline in next year's production. However, the downstream cotton yarn circulation has slowed down, and the cotton price has risen strongly while the cotton yarn price has struggled to follow. The spinning profit of yarn mills has been squeezed, and the increasing gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices may increase the possibility of imported yarn substitution. Some long - position funds in cotton have also left the market for profit - taking. The cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang may announce policy optimization directions for 2026, which may increase the volatility of cotton prices. If the subsidy policy for cotton planting in Xinjiang does not meet expectations, the cotton price may fall again due to the departure of funds, but there is still upward potential in the future under the unchanged supply expectation for this year [14]. - **Apple**: Recently, the market has refocused on the shortage of deliverable goods, and both near - and far - month contracts are expected to rise further. Additionally, as the pre - Spring Festival stocking period approaches, cold storage facilities are gradually packing goods, and attention should be paid to the stocking situation [19]. - **Jujube**: In the short term, jujube prices may remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream purchasing. In the long term, the overall supply - demand of new - season jujubes in China is relatively loose, and prices will continue to face downward pressure [27]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On January 9, 2026, SR01 closed at 5310 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.87%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of Nanning - SR01 on January 8, 2026, was 50, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 39. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 80, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 29. Similar data were provided for other contracts [9]. - **Import Prices**: The quota - in price of Brazilian sugar on January 9, 2026, was 4079, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 67. The quota - out price was 5168, with a daily increase of 65 and a weekly decrease of 88. Similar data were provided for Thai sugar [12]. 3.2 Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On January 9, 2026, cotton 01 closed at 14730, down 110 or 0.74%; cotton 05 closed at 14675, down 65 or 0.44%; cotton 09 closed at 14860, down 70 or 0.47%. For cotton yarn, 01 closed at 20225, 05 closed at 20760, down 85 or 0.41%, and 09 closed at 20970, up 60 or 0.29% [15]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1255, up 3; cotton 01 - 05 was 55, down 45; cotton 05 - 09 was - 185, up 5; cotton 09 - 01 was 130, up 40; the flower - yarn spread was 6060, unchanged; the domestic - foreign cotton spread was 3393, up 243; the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 26, unchanged [15]. 3.3 Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On January 9, 2026, AP01 closed at 9999, unchanged with a weekly increase of 0.49%; AP03 closed at 9742, up 1.19% with a weekly increase of 4.8%. Spot prices for different varieties of apples remained mostly unchanged [20]. - **Spreads and Other Indicators**: AP01 - 05 was 468, up 12.5% with a weekly increase of 2.18%. The main contract basis was - 457, up 36.01% with a weekly decrease of 1271.79% [20]. 3.4 Jujube - **Futures Spreads**: Information on jujube futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) over different time periods was provided, showing historical price differences [28][30]. - **Price Trends**: The price trends of Xinjiang jujube main - producing areas and main - selling areas were presented, including the prices in Aksu, Alar, Kashgar, Hebei, and Henan [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply - demand pattern is relatively balanced. With India's export quota being lower than expected and low export possibility, Brazil's sugar production decreasing year - on - year but exports increasing, and Thailand's sugarcane suffering from diseases and farmers switching to cassava, short - term upward pressure on sugar prices has increased, and the price maintains an equilibrium [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the market is dominated by the strong expectation of tight supply - demand in the new year and a decline in next - year's production. However, due to uncertainties in the new - season target price subsidy policy, slow yarn sales, and expanding domestic - foreign cotton price differences, there is a need to guard against short - term cotton price corrections. In the medium - to - long - term, cotton prices may still rise if supply expectations remain unchanged [13]. - **Apples**: The overall transaction of late Fuji inventory is slow, with trading mainly on a need - to - basis. Different regions have different sales situations, such as Gansu focusing on packaging and shipping, Shaanxi having a weak sales atmosphere, and Shandong mainly exporting small fruits [17]. - **Red Dates**: The current new jujube harvest is basically completed. In the short term, jujube prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, the overall supply of new - year jujubes in China is relatively loose, and prices will continue to face downward pressure [26]. 3. Summary by Category Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, SR01 closed at 5264 with a daily decline of 0.13% and a weekly decline of 2.37%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of Nanning - SR01 on December 30, 2025, was 89, with a daily decline of 6 and a weekly increase of 75. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 51, with a daily decline of 6 and a weekly increase of 15. Other contracts also had corresponding basis data [8]. - **Import Prices**: On December 31, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4049, with a daily decline of 97 and a weekly decline of 54. The out - of - quota price was 5129, with a daily decline of 127 and a weekly decline of 70. Similar data was provided for Thai sugar imports [11]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On the reporting date, Cotton 01 closed at 14655, up 45 (0.31%); Cotton 05 closed at 14585, up 25 (0.17%); Cotton 09 closed at 14760, up 30 (0.2%); Yarn 01 closed at 20475, up 350 (1.74%); Yarn 05 closed at 20595, down 45 (- 0.22%); Yarn 09 closed at 20660, down 100% [14]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 983, unchanged; Cotton 01 - 05 was 50, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 was - 170, unchanged; Cotton 09 - 01 was 120, unchanged; The flower - yarn spread was 6035, unchanged; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2621, up 12; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 70, unchanged [14]. Apples - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 31, 2025, AP01 closed at 9950, up 3.02% (weekly increase of 2.96%); AP03 closed at 9300, down 0.16% (weekly increase of 0.5%); etc. The spot prices of different varieties in different regions remained stable [18]. - **Spreads and Other Data**: AP01 - 05 was 458, up 8.02% (weekly increase of 9.31%); the main contract basis was 41, down 224.24% (weekly decline of 119.62%); the delivery theoretical price was 9200, up 2.22% [18]. Red Dates No specific futures or spot price data is provided, but it is mentioned that the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term price will be under pressure due to loose supply [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is at a high level while overseas construction projects are progressing slowly; demand is growing steadily, and the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits are high, and low inventory is a key price support. High aluminum prices suppress downstream purchases, and concerns about macro - liquidity tightening lead to a high - level oscillation of the market [3]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and new capacity is being gradually put into production. Demand growth has slowed down, weakening market sentiment. Current inventory is accumulating, but policies encouraging industrial mergers and reorganizations have sparked "capacity clearance" policy expectations, and the futures price has rebounded sharply. A short - term bottom for alumina may be gradually emerging [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: The report shows the national and provincial monthly production seasonality, monthly import volume seasonality, and port inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite [20][21]. - **Alumina**: It presents the monthly production seasonality of Chinese alumina, the monthly production of major production areas, national and provincial weekly operating rates, monthly import volume seasonality, and import profit and loss [23][25][29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The report includes the monthly and weekly production seasonality of Chinese electrolytic aluminum, monthly net import seasonality, and spot import profit and loss, as well as the monthly production seasonality of global electrolytic aluminum [32][33][34]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - **Product Output**: It details the weekly and monthly output seasonality of various aluminum products such as aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots [36][39]. - **Operating Rates**: The report shows the weekly and monthly operating rates seasonality of different aluminum product industries, including aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, aluminum foils, aluminum cables, and primary aluminum alloys [40][49]. - **Exports**: It provides the monthly export volume seasonality of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and the export profit of Chinese aluminum products [51][53]. - **Related Industries**: It presents the data related to industries consuming aluminum, such as the cumulative year - on - year of housing start - up and completion areas and fixed - asset investment, the monthly output seasonality of automobiles and new - energy vehicles, the monthly investment completion amount of power grid projects, and the monthly new - installed capacity of photovoltaics [57][59][62]. 3.3 Inventory - **Bauxite**: It shows the monthly inventory seasonality of Chinese bauxite in the whole country and in specific provinces like Guangxi, Henan, and Shanxi [66][67]. - **Alumina**: It includes the factory - level inventory seasonality of alumina enterprises, the number of inventory days, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipt total seasonality [68][69]. - **Aluminum**: It shows the LME aluminum inventory seasonality, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity seasonality, Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory seasonality, inventory days seasonality, aluminum rod and aluminum ingot + aluminum rod spot inventory seasonality [69][70][72]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Raw Materials**: It presents the prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas TTF, and European electricity prices [74][75][76]. - **Production**: It shows the cost of alumina and the cost - profit situation of Chinese electrolytic aluminum [74][76].

Group 1: Core View - The trading advisory view is to focus on the fluctuations of the term spread and keep the position flexible to cope with potential fluctuations [2] Group 2: Market Factors Bullish Factors - The sentiment in the bond market has warmed up, the yield of the 10-year active bond has fallen below 1.85%, and the term spread has narrowed [2] - The central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase after three months, releasing cross-year liquidity and leading to a loose funding situation [2] Bearish Factors - The 10-year Treasury bond futures declined slightly, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread continued to widen [2] - Due to the imbalance between long - end supply and demand and the pressure of new public fund regulations, the 30-year yield increased by nearly 2bp [2] Group 3: Market Data Yield and Interest Rate - Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y Treasury bond yields from 24/04 to 25/08 are presented [3] - Data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates for 1 - day and 7 - day and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from 23/12 to 25/06 are shown [3] Term Spread - Data on the 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond term spreads from 24/04 to 25/08 are provided [5] Futures Position and Transaction - Data on the positions and transactions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from different time periods are presented [7][8] Basis and Spread - Data on the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures for the current quarter are shown [9][10][11][13] - Data on the inter - period spreads (current quarter - next quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures from different time periods are provided [16][17] - Data on the cross - variety spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL from different time periods are presented [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the fundamentals of the oilseed industry, including supply and demand factors for soybeans, rapeseed, and related products. It also examines the market conditions of various oils such as soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, considering factors like production, consumption, inventory, and policy impacts [6][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic procurement of US soybeans is slow, with low January arrivals due to slow customs clearance. The December USDA report met market expectations, and the market is focused on South American soybean planting and weather. There are concerns about potential supply pressure from South American soybean production in March - May next year. State reserve soybean auctions, although with low trading volumes, have put short - term supply pressure. Weak demand due to farming losses and seasonal factors, along with low prices leading to crushing losses for oil mills, which have price - support expectations [6]. - Import reduction has led to near - zero domestic rapeseed inventory, and imports of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are restricted by import tariffs. Uncertainty from Sino - Canadian negotiations has raised concerns about supply shortages, but increased arrivals from Australia are expected to keep December and January rapeseed imports at historical average levels. With the seasonal decline in aquaculture demand, prices have rebounded, and there are concerns about supply contraction due to potential import shortages [6]. Oils Soybean Oil - Raw material pressure persists. Oil mills have reduced crushing volumes due to weakening profit margins, slightly easing domestic supply. The demand side faces a traditional peak season with support from New Year and Spring Festival demand. Overseas biodiesel policies are changeable, and attention should be paid to US and Indonesian policies [38][39]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's December supply - demand data exceeded expectations, with higher - than - expected inventory accumulation. China's November imports reached a high, and domestic inventory remains at a high level. Overseas biodiesel policies are changeable. Supply countries may face seasonal production cuts around the Spring Festival, leading to expectations of inventory reduction in January - February [40]. Rapeseed Oil - High tariffs on imported rapeseed persist, and the volume of Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain. The lack of results from Sino - Canadian negotiations has led to continued concerns about import shortages. Reduced imports have led to continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil in China. Rapeseed oil has shown relatively stronger performance compared to other oils due to lower inventory levels [41].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are supported at high levels by macro - liquidity and exchange rates, but the weak fundamental reality limits their upside potential. In the short term, copper prices may enter a high - level shock phase, and the risk of a correction is increasing [4][5] Summary by Directory Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 98,720 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.95%. The position is 252,097 lots, with a weekly increase of 14,445 lots, and the trading volume is 286,978 lots [6] - The latest price of Shanghai Copper Index Weighted is 98,776 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.09%. The position is 651,557 lots, with a weekly increase of 29,521 lots, and the trading volume is 477,230 lots [6] - The latest price of International Copper is 88,630 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.71%. The position is 2,830 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1,145 lots, and the trading volume is 8,081 lots [6] - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month contract is 12,133 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.33%. The position is 239,014 lots, with a weekly decrease of 38,282 lots, and the trading volume is 18,195 lots [6] - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 557.3 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 2.7%. The position is 148,392 lots, with a weekly increase of 4,858 lots, and the trading volume is 31,214 lots [6] Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 97,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,390 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.84% [11] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaotrade copper is 97,865 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,385 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.82% [11] - The latest price of Guangdong Nanchu copper is 98,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,330 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.75% [12] - The latest price of Yangtze Non - ferrous copper is 98,030 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,390 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.82% [12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The copper import profit and loss is - 1,732.18 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 683.5 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 65.18% [13] - The copper concentrate TC is - 43.8 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.55 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 1.27% [13] - The copper - aluminum ratio is 4.3348, with a weekly increase of 0.1055 and a weekly increase rate of 2.49% [13] - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,943.88 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 348.63 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of - 8.12% [13] Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 59,083 tons, with a weekly increase of 14,433 tons and a weekly increase rate of 32.32% [20] - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 1,053 tons, with no change [20] - The Shanghai Copper inventory is 95,805 tons, with a weekly increase of 6,416 tons and a weekly increase rate of 7.18% [20] Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In November 2025, the refined copper production was 123.60 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The cumulative production was 1,332.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [24] - In November 2025, the copper product production was 222.60 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative production was 2,259.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [24] Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 63.31%, with a monthly increase of 7.11 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points [26] - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 23.59%, with a monthly decrease of 0.52 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.73 percentage points [26] - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 66.44%, with a monthly increase of 2.6 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.62 percentage points [26] - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper rods was 54.08%, with a monthly increase of 3.95 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.98 percentage points [26] - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 59.69%, with a monthly increase of 7.12 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.42 percentage points [26] Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In November 2025, the import volume of copper concentrates was 2.526194 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The cumulative import volume was 27.615499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [30] - In November 2025, the import volume of anode copper was 58,333 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The cumulative import volume was 688,621 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [30] - In November 2025, the import volume of cathode copper was 269,205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The cumulative import volume was 3,085,712 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [30] - In November 2025, the import volume of scrap copper was 208,143 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20%. The cumulative import volume was 2,103,603 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [30] - In November 2025, the import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The cumulative import volume was 4,880,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but constrained by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore has both upward and downward drivers and is expected to trade in a range, with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the coke valuation repair drive may weaken [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside and downside space [48] - With the strengthening expectation of new soda ash capacity coming online, the market is in surplus, and prices are under pressure [62] - Some glass production lines are expected to cold repair before the Spring Festival, affecting long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [85] Summary by Categories Steel Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3097, 3118, and 3167 respectively; hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3288, 3283, and 3296 respectively [4] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3318 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] Ratios - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore were all 4; to 01, 05, and 09 coke were all 2 on December 26, 2025 [18] Iron Ore Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 801.5, 783, and 761 respectively [22] Fundamentals - On December 26, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons [25] Coking Coal and Coke Futures Spreads - On December 26, 2025, the spreads of coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 were 174, - 80, and - 94 respectively; for coke were 224.5, - 76.5, and - 148 respectively [35] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 yuan/ton [38] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - On December 26, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5350 yuan/ton [49] Silicon Manganese - On December 26, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 100, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton [50] Soda Ash Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1200, 1258, and 1121 respectively [63] Spot Prices - On December 26, 2025, the heavy - soda market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the light - soda market price was 1250 yuan/ton [63] Glass Futures Prices - On December 26, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1057, 1160, and 936 respectively [86] Spot Sales - On December 25, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 102, and in Hubei was 97 [87]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - Short - term basis repair is completed, and further upward movement is difficult. With multiple factors affecting the market, the sugar price is under pressure to fall [3] Price and Spread Data - Sugar futures: SR01 closed at 5294 with a daily decline of 1.3% and a weekly increase of 2.26%; SR03 closed at 5287 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 3.46%; etc [4] - Sugar basis: On December 25, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 24 with a daily increase of 28 and a weekly decrease of 102; etc [9] - Import price: On December 26, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4157 with a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 75; the out - of - quota price was 5270 with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 98; etc [12] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short term, there is still hedging pressure on cotton prices to be digested. In the long term, if the supply expectation remains unchanged, the cotton supply - demand in the new year may be tight, and cotton prices have room to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders before the holiday [14] Price and Spread Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures: Cotton01 closed at 14565 with an increase of 270 (1.89%); Cotton05 closed at 14535 with an increase of 280 (1.96%); etc [15] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 782 with a daily decrease of 242; the spread of cotton01 - 05 was 30 with a daily decrease of 10; etc [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The overall trading of late Fuji inventory is slow, and transactions are mostly on - demand. Merchants' restocking is temporarily over [18] Price and Spread Data - Apple futures: AP01 closed at 9694 with a daily increase of 0.03% and a weekly increase of 1.14%; AP03 closed at 9360 with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 0.8%; etc [19] - Apple spreads: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 483 with a daily increase of 2.11% and a weekly increase of 16.39%; etc [19] Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - In the short term, red date prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, the overall supply - demand of red dates in the new year in China is loose, and prices will still be under pressure [26] Price and Spread Data - Red date futures spreads: The spread of red date futures (01 - 05) shows certain trends in different years; etc [27]