Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metal Futures - September 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the context of the restart of the trade war, the economic recession restricts the consumption demand for gold and silver jewelry; the demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization; when the US restarts interest rate cuts, the medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals; a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts has been tracked [2][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - Trump will impose major sanctions on Russia when all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil; Poland allows NATO troops to be stationed; G7 finance ministers plan sanctions and tariffs on supporters of Russia in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; the UK and the US plan to sign a technology agreement, and US companies plan to invest over £1.25 billion in the UK's financial services sector; the US Energy Secretary says the EU may phase out Russian natural gas in 6 - 12 months; Fitch downgrades France's sovereign credit rating; OpenAI may reduce its revenue - sharing ratio with Microsoft to 8% and get an additional $50 billion in revenue; NVIDIA reduces its focus on its cloud - computing business; Tesla's German factory increases production; the US plans to expand its strategic uranium reserve; the US August retail sales monthly rate is 0.6%, higher than the forecast of 0.2%; the US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the dot - plot implies three rate cuts this year; the EU sanctions Israel, and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign a common defense agreement; Brazil keeps its benchmark interest rate unchanged, and Canada cuts its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points; Trump opposes the UK's recognition of Palestine; the UK and Japan increase their holdings of US Treasury bonds in July while China reduces its holdings; the Bank of England keeps its interest rate unchanged and slows down quantitative tightening [8] Gold Market Tracking - COMEX gold: The latest long - position is 122,450 contracts, short - position is 35,978 contracts; SPDR gold ETF holdings are 862 tons, iShares gold ETF holdings are 402 tons; the latest futures position is 407,927 hands; the Shanghai gold warehouse receipt is 3 tons, and the overseas inventory is 617 ounces. In terms of changes, the 5 - day change shows a - 4% decrease in long - position ratio, - 1% in short - position ratio, etc. [9] Silver Market Tracking - COMEX silver: The latest long - position is 44,277 contracts, short - position is 27,801 contracts; SLV silver ETF holdings are 13,802 tons; the latest futures position is 971,795 hands; the Shanghai silver warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons, and the overseas inventory is 8,398 tons. The 5 - day change shows a 57 - contract increase in long - position, 58 - ton increase in SLV holdings, etc. [15] Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - The import gold hedging profit rate and import silver hedging profit rate data from July 15, 2024, to September 8, 2025, are presented in the form of a chart [22] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Trends Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - ICE dollar index non - commercial net long - position and total position data from February 11, 2025, to September 9, 2025, are presented in the form of a chart [24] US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - CBOT 10 - year, 5 - year, 2 - year US Treasury bond futures and options non - commercial net long - position, total position, and non - commercial net long - position data from different time periods are presented in the form of a chart [27][28][29] US Inflation Expectation - The US inflation expectation data from July 22, 2025, to September 18, 2025, are presented in the form of a chart, including 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year break - even inflation rates [31] US Real Interest Rate - The US Treasury real yield curve data for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year from October 2005 to April 2025 are presented in the form of a chart [33] US Interest Rate Term Structure - The US Treasury interest rate, inflation expectation, and real interest rate data for different terms (1M - 30Y) are presented in the form of a chart [35] US and Major Non - US Countries' 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spread - The yield spreads between the US 2 - year Treasury bond and those of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany from July 22, 2025, to September 18, 2025, are presented in the form of a chart [39]

Core Views Bullish Factors - China's economy shows resilience, and the semiconductor boom boosts nickel demand [3]. - New policies for electric vehicles encourage vehicle registration and usage, stimulating nickel consumption [3]. Bearish Factors - High inventories of LME nickel and SHFE nickel limit the upside potential of nickel prices [3]. - Limited fundamental changes and price drops indicate market pressure [3]. Trading Advisory View - Short - term macro sentiment is rising, supporting nickel prices to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [3]. Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest price of SHFE nickel main contract is 120,940 yuan/ton, down 1,640 yuan (-1.34%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of SHFE nickel continuous contract 1 is 121,110 yuan/ton, down 870 yuan (-0.71%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of SHFE nickel continuous contract 2 is 121,340 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan (-0.67%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of SHFE nickel continuous contract 3 is 121,480 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan (-0.67%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of LME nickel 3M is 15,445 dollars/ton, up 225 dollars week - on - week [4]. Stainless Steel Futures - The latest price of stainless steel main contract is 12,875 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan (-1%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of stainless steel continuous contract 1 is 12,875 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.12%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of stainless steel continuous contract 2 is 12,925 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.19%) week - on - week [4]. - The latest price of stainless steel continuous contract 3 is 12,990 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.04%) week - on - week [4]. Other Data - The position volume is 55,044 lots, down 15,566 lots (-22.1%) week - on - week [4]. - The trading volume is 81,612 lots, down 21,067 lots (-20.52%) week - on - week [4]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 25,866 tons, up 2,337 tons (9.93%) week - on - week [4]. - The basis of the main contract is 10 yuan/ton, down 920 yuan (-101.10%) week - on - week [4]. Spot Prices - The latest price of Jinchuan nickel is 123,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.08%) [4]. - The latest price of imported nickel is 121,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.08%) [4]. - The latest price of 1 electrolytic nickel is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.08%) [4]. - The latest price of nickel beans is 124,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.08%) [4]. - The latest price of electrowon nickel is 121,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-0.04%) [4]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory is 41,055 tons, up 1,125 tons [4]. - LME nickel inventory is 228,450 tons, down 18 tons [6]. - Stainless steel social inventory is 897.2 tons, down 5.4 tons [6]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, down 614.5 tons [6]. Charts and Information Nickel Market - There are charts showing the price trends of SHFE nickel futures main contract, LME nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading price, nickel spot average price, and nickel supply and inventory data including China's refined nickel monthly output, total domestic primary nickel supply, domestic social inventory, LME nickel inventory, Philippine laterite nickel ore price, Chinese port nickel ore inventory, Chinese and Indonesian nickel pig iron output [7][8][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. Downstream of Nickel - There are charts about downstream products of nickel such as battery - grade nickel sulfate price, premium, production profit margins of nickel beans producing nickel sulfate and electrowon nickel from externally - purchased nickel sulfate, China's nickel sulfate monthly output, and ternary precursor monthly production capacity [22][23][24][25][26][27]. Stainless Steel Market - There are charts presenting the price trend of stainless steel futures main contract, stainless steel inventory, 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin, and stainless steel monthly output [9][10][30][31][32].

生猪周报. 生猪特刊 2025/09/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：罗鑫海 Z0021565 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司 ...

软商品日报 2025/09/15 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/09/15 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Report Date - The report is dated September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Steel market: The steel fundamentals are under significant pressure, with super - seasonal inventory accumulation leading to a contraction in steel mill profits and an increasing negative feedback risk, which suppresses the upside space of the market. However, expectations for peak - season demand, positive macro - expectations, and anticipated pre - National Day restocking by downstream and steel mills support the raw material end, limiting the downside space. The steel market is expected to show a volatile consolidation pattern in the near term [3] - Iron ore market: Short - term iron ore prices are strong due to tight supply and rising demand. However, weak steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits cap the upside of iron ore prices. There may also be a risk of "good news being fully priced in" [19] - Coal and coke market: Except for rebar, other steel products in the blast furnace process still have profits, so blast furnace steel mills have weak willingness to cut production. Electric furnace steel mills are suffering significant losses, with some regions having production resumptions and others cut - offs. High steel supply and inventory pressure will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" theme remains a focus, and pre - National Day inventory transfers may improve the supply - demand structure. The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [31] - Ferroalloy market: The trading logic for ferroalloys in the long - term lies in the "anti - involution" expectation. After the price decline, ferroalloys are near the cost line, limiting the downside. The market still has expectations for supply - side contraction, and the supply - demand pressure may ease as production profit declines and the output in the southern silicon - manganese producing areas is expected to fall [49] - Soda ash market: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, and factors affecting supply or cost will be repeatedly traded. Soda ash demand is stable, but the supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream capping prices [64] - Glass market: High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream and weak demand limit the price increase. There are differences in opinions regarding potential supply cuts in the fourth quarter, so the glass price lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The short - term supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [89] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3136, 3205, and 3045 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3370, 3374, and 3398 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China increased from 3275 to 3284 yuan/ton [7] - The 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained unchanged from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [4] - **Ratios** - The ratios of 01, 05, and 10 rebar to 01, 05, and 09 iron ore and 01, 05, and 09 coke remained at 4 and 2 respectively on September 15, 2025, unchanged from September 12 [16] Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 796, 774.5, and 757 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 3.5, - 3, and - 59 yuan/ton respectively [20] - The 01, 05, and 09 basis values of iron ore on September 15, 2025, were - 5.5, 16.5, and - 22 yuan/ton respectively, with some changes compared to September 12 and September 8 [20] - **Fundamentals** - As of September 12, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.55 tons, with a weekly increase of 11.71 tons and a monthly decrease of 0.11 tons [26] - The 45 - port iron ore inventory on September 12, 2025, was 13849.47 tons, with a weekly increase of 24.15 tons and a monthly increase of 30.2 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads were 143.5, - 46.5, and - 97 respectively, with significant changes compared to September 12 [36] - The coke 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month - spreads also showed large fluctuations from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had various changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025. For example, the coking coal price of Australian Peak Downs increased by 3 yuan/ton [36] - The import profits of coking coal from different countries also changed, with the Russian K10 import profit increasing by 67 yuan/ton from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [38] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On September 15, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton [50] - The silicon - iron 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 108, 280, and - 172 respectively, with some weekly changes [50] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on September 15, 2025, was 124 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 44 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 66 yuan/ton [53] - The silicon - manganese 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads also had significant changes from September 12 to September 15, 2025 [53] Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1383, 1412, and 1308 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 15, 249, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [65] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 234 yuan/ton [65] - **Spot Prices** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly stable on September 15, 2025, compared to September 12, with only a few regions having small changes [68] Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On September 15, 2025, the glass 05, 09, and 01 contract prices were 1308, 1354, and 1207 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 24, 386, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [90] - The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month - spreads changed significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread dropping by 362 yuan/ton [90] - **Sales and Production** - The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations from September 6 to September 12, 2025. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in the Shahe region was 73 on September 12 [91]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The fundamentals of gold remain strong. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut weakens the US dollar, boosts the demand for gold from non - US currency holders. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases, geopolitical risks, the long - term de - dollarization trend, and policy - game uncertainties support the upward movement of gold prices. The exchange - rate factor amplifies the domestic increase, and SHFE gold performs better than international gold [3]. - Copper: In the next week, copper prices may remain at 81,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper prices may decrease as investors have consistent expectations for the Fed's September and October interest - rate decisions. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with the tight supply problem remaining unresolved in the short term and demand remaining weak. Overall, copper prices will be in a volatile state [18]. - Aluminum: Last week, SHFE aluminum prices rose significantly, mainly due to the strengthening expectation of interest - rate cuts and the improvement of fundamentals. However, at high prices, the downstream's willingness to accept goods is weak, and it is uncertain whether the inventory - reduction inflection point has arrived. In the future, inventory will be an important factor determining aluminum prices. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus, and its price may be weak in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy may be volatile and strong, and the subsequent focus is on the supply of scrap aluminum [37][38][39]. - Zinc: The supply of zinc is in a surplus state. The price advantage of domestic zinc ore is obvious, and overseas zinc ore is in a loose situation. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the LME inventory is continuously decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, zinc prices will be volatile [64]. - Nickel: The takeover of some nickel mines in Indonesia by the forestry working group has caused concerns about supply. The benchmark price of nickel ore in September has declined, but the premium is firm. The supply of nickel salt is tight, and the price of nickel iron is stable and strong. Stainless steel has limited downward space due to cost support, but high - price transactions are weak [80]. - Tin: The impact of monetary policy on tin prices may decrease. The short - term pattern of tight supply in September is difficult to change, and the weak demand has little impact on prices. Tin prices may continue to fluctuate [95]. - Lithium Carbonate: Policy support is expected to extend the peak - season cycle of the new - energy industry to the end of the year. If the downstream material enterprises experience a prosperous market after the "National Day" holiday, the current restocking demand may last until the end of the year. The downside space of lithium - carbonate spot prices is limited [106]. - Silicon: The market of industrial silicon is characterized by "strong expectation and weak reality". The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may be volatile and weak in the short term. The polysilicon market is under pressure, with increasing supply and inventory, but the policy expectation is strong, and it may be in a state of shock adjustment [115]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price - influencing factors: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, global central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and de - dollarization trend support gold prices [3]. - Market performance: SHFE gold performs better than international gold due to exchange - rate factors [3]. Copper - Price forecast: Remain at 81,000 yuan per ton in the next week, with the impact of monetary policy decreasing and a volatile trend [18]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, import and export data, and inventory data are presented in detail, showing the current supply - demand situation and price trends [18][23][33]. Aluminum - Aluminum: Rose last week, but downstream acceptance is weak at high prices, and inventory is a key factor for future price trends [37]. - Alumina: In a supply - surplus state, with prices likely to be weak in the short term [38]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: May be volatile and strong, with scrap - aluminum supply being the focus [39]. Zinc - Supply - demand situation: Supply is in surplus, and demand for the peak season is generally expected. The LME inventory is decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [64]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, inventory data, and basis data are provided [65][71][76]. Nickel - Supply - demand situation: The takeover of mines in Indonesia causes supply concerns. Nickel - ore prices are affected by nickel - price adjustments, and the supply of nickel salt is tight. Nickel - iron prices are stable and strong, and stainless - steel transactions are weak at high prices [80]. - Market data: Futures prices, inventory data, and downstream - profit data are presented [81][86][90]. Tin - Price forecast: May continue to fluctuate as the impact of monetary policy decreases and the supply is tight in the short term [95]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, inventory data, and processing - fee data are shown [96][100][102]. Lithium Carbonate - Policy impact: Policy support is expected to extend the peak - season cycle, and the downside space of spot prices is limited [106]. - Market data: Futures and spot prices, inventory data are provided [107][109][113]. Silicon - Industrial Silicon: The market is characterized by "strong expectation and weak reality", with increasing supply and accumulating inventory, and prices may be volatile and weak in the short term [115]. - Polysilicon: Under pressure with increasing supply and inventory, but with strong policy expectations, and may be in a state of shock adjustment [115]. - Market data: Spot and futures prices, production, inventory, and price - difference data are presented [116][117][131].

Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a sideways consolidation, likely to fluctuate between 4,400 - 4,500 ringgit awaiting production and export data. Seasonal production growth and weak export data may pressure the market. If it fails to hold above 4,500 ringgit, there's a risk of a downward breakout [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are also consolidating, following the trend of Malaysian palm oil. If Malaysian palm oil can't stay above 4,500 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may break down towards 9,000 yuan due to pre - National Day trading dynamics. Attention should be paid to the 40 - day moving average around 9,200 yuan and the performance of Malaysian palm oil [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestically, sufficient supply and increasing demand coexist. The market is influenced by international related products. The upcoming harvest of US soybeans exerts supply pressure on the international market, affecting domestic soybean oil prices. If the report is better than expected, CBOT soybeans may rise and boost Dalian soybean oil; otherwise, Dalian soybean oil may test the 8,300 - yuan support. After the monthly report is digested, the market may rise due to Mid - Autumn Festival stocking [4]. Oilseeds (Bean Meal) - The firm South American soybean premium supports import costs, but news of potential China - US high - level talks in Madrid has emerged. In the short term, the market is a mix of weak current situation and strong expectations. The main contract of Dalian bean meal should be watched for resistance at 3,100 - 3,120 yuan/ton. Spot prices are slowly rising, and attention should be paid to feed companies' restocking in late September [18]. Price Data Oil Futures Price | Futures | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | 9,296 yuan/ton | -0.36% | | | Palm Oil 05 | 9,062 yuan/ton | -0.57% | | | Palm Oil 09 | 9,384 yuan/ton | -0.66% | | | BMD Palm Oil Main | 4,441 ringgit/ton | -0.29% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 01 | 8,322 yuan/ton | -0.29% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 05 | 8,018 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | | Dalian Soybean Oil 09 | 8,398 yuan/ton | -0.26% | | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | 51.61 cents/pound | 1.24% | | Oilseed Futures Price | Futures | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3,079 | -9 | -0.29% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2,820 | 11 | 0.39% | | Bean Meal 09 | 3,023 | -8 | -0.26% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,531 | -36 | -1.4% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,406 | -14 | -0.58% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,560 | 10 | 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1,034 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1152 | -0.0025 | -0.04% | Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 216 yuan/ton (up 12), P 5 - 9 is - 332 yuan/ton (up 74), P 9 - 1 is 116 yuan/ton (down 86) [5]. - Soybean oil - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 994 yuan/ton (down 6), Y - P 05 is - 1,088 yuan/ton (down 12), Y - P 09 is - 1,178 yuan/ton (up 6) [5]. - Bean meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 279 yuan/ton (up 11), M05 - 09 is - 222 yuan/ton (up 11), M09 - 01 is - 57 yuan/ton (down 22) [20][23]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 is 147 yuan/ton (up 19), RM05 - 09 is - 130 yuan/ton (up 30), RM09 - 01 is - 17 yuan/ton (down 49) [20][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, the gold price is bullish due to the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. The weak employment data in the US in August strengthens the easing expectation. In the long - term, the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the de - dollarization trend, and geopolitical risks boost the currency attribute and safe - haven demand of gold. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures have exceeded 100 billion yuan, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3]. - **Copper**: In the short term, with a tight supply, the copper price faces obvious pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with the price expected to stand firm at 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors such as the weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price. Fundamentally, the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and the recovery of downstream demand in the peak season support the price. However, the late de - stocking node restricts the upward range of the aluminum price in the short term, and the SHFE aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore has a price advantage, and the overseas zinc ore supply is abundant. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. - **Nickel**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is also strong, and the stainless - steel market is in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index, rate - cut expectations, and the difficulty of stainless - steel exports [84]. - **Tin**: In the short term, the factors affecting the tin price are not obvious, and the technical level can be used for judgment. The price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there is an optimistic short - term expectation for the resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine, the peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" still provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. - **Silicon**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty in price trends. Investors are advised to be cautious [120]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the initial jobless claims soared to 263,000, which strengthened the easing expectation. The precipitation funds in SHFE gold futures exceeded 100 billion yuan, with an increase of more than 17 billion yuan in a month [3]. Copper - **Price Forecast**: In the short term, the copper price has pressure at 79,000 yuan per ton and may be supported by the 20 - day moving average, with the expectation of reaching 80,000 yuan per ton [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Southern Reserve, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,755 yuan/ton, 80,990 yuan/ton, 80,930 yuan/ton, and 81,080 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 1.06%, 1.01%, and 1.01% [22]. Aluminum - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The weak US non - farm payrolls in August, the almost certain Fed rate cut in September, and the improvement of domestic policies are positive for the aluminum price [37]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The aluminum - water ratio has increased, and the downstream demand in the peak season is recovering, mainly in the industrial profile sector led by photovoltaics. The possible termination of the tax - refund policy for some recycled aluminum enterprises may reduce the supply of recycled aluminum and support the consumption of primary aluminum [37]. Zinc - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side is in an oversupply state, with abundant overseas zinc ore supply and high zinc ore imports. The demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" is generally expected, and the zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short term [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The production and shipment of nickel ore are stable, and the inventory at domestic ports is high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is volatile [84]. Tin - **Price Judgment**: In the short term, the technical level can be used to judge the tin price, and the price of 270,000 yuan per ton has certain support [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Logic**: The peak - season demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" provides effective support for the lithium carbonate price. The resumption of production of the Jianxiaowo lithium mine cannot cover the current peak - season demand, and the supply - side disturbance does not change the fundamental support logic [111]. Silicon - **Industry Outlook**: In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry faces structural pressure, and the polysilicon market is affected by rumors and policy expectations, with high uncertainty [120].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Brazil's mid - southern region's sugar production in the first half of August 2025 increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and sugar exports in the first week of September remained high. In China, spot prices continued to weaken, and with high imports in July and the expected arrival of beet sugar, there is supply pressure. The lack of rebound in raw sugar means the domestic market lacks upward drivers [3]. - **Cotton**: The low inventory before the new cotton harvest supports cotton prices, and there are many pre - sales of new cotton. The basis is strong, limiting the downward adjustment space. However, there is hedging pressure from ginneries. After the new cotton is listed, prices may fall due to a potentially high - yield situation [14]. - **Jujube**: New - season jujube production may decline significantly compared to last year but less so compared to normal years. There is potential market speculation before harvest. Despite the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival, downstream sales are average. If the decline in production does not increase, prices may fall due to high old - jujube inventories [20]. - **Apple**: Seasonal fruits limit apple sales. New - season apples, like early Fuji, have small fruit sizes. As the new season approaches, expectations of reduced production and lower high - quality fruit rates affect the market [24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Production and Supply**: Brazil's mid - southern region produced 361500 tons of sugar in the first half of August 2025, a 15.96% year - on - year increase. Brazil exported 76900 tons of sugar in the first week of September. In China, the import volume in July was 740000 tons, and there is an expected arrival of beet sugar [3]. - **Prices**: On September 10, 2025, domestic spot prices in Guangxi were between 5830 - 5940 yuan/ton, but the transaction price dropped to 5728 yuan/ton. Futures prices for different contracts had various daily and weekly changes, e.g., SR01 closed at 5535 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.31% and a weekly decrease of 0.49% [3][4]. - **Basis and Import**: Basis data for different locations and contracts showed various daily and weekly changes. Import prices from Brazil and Thailand and the corresponding price differences with domestic prices also had changes. For example, the Brazilian import quota - within price was 4379 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 43 yuan and a weekly decrease of 99 yuan [9][12]. Cotton - **Prices**: On September 10, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13855 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 20 yuan (0.14%). Cotton and cotton yarn price differences, such as the cotton basis at 1500 yuan, had daily and weekly changes [15][16]. Jujube - **Production and Market**: New - season jujube production may decline. Downstream sales are average during the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival. Price trends depend on production decline and old - jujube inventories [20]. Apple - **Market Situation**: Seasonal fruits limit apple sales. New - season apples, like early Fuji, have small fruit sizes. Futures and spot prices had various daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025. For example, AP01 closed at 8130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.21% and a weekly decrease of 0.87% [24][25].